[Spoilers] Gröt and Bänzai lose several screws assembling a Sweedish Strategy

[Banzailizard]

Bah, so for the sake of any lurkers all my calculations are basically useless. Well not entirely. See I assumed we were running normal speed, but as Grot pointed out this is "Viking" speed which seems to be roughly 2 times the speed.  That is actually quite good for us though. Let's take this a naive way. I said 33 for us 23 for Norway, at 2 times speed we could expect both those pop growths to double.  46 and 66 which is twice the spread of points.  However in reality it is much better.  See housing is now the big lock not food per say.  We have much more housing due to:

1. more cities, which just each come with at least 2 housing;
2. more river cities thanks to Russia;
3. we are going to have a wave of serfdom enhanced builders who will build up farm triangles further increasing our housing and food. They can also chop out a few harbors to give us some more VP.  

Meanwhile Norway's population growth number of 23 was based on their available housing limit. Unless they chop out some aqueducts they are stuck pretty low. We still cannot loose all of Italy but under these conditions even the loss of Rome would not be awful.

Oh but we plan to take Rome.  See Grot had a good idea there, he suggested buying a Siege Tower.  Normally that kind of thing would be useless, but here? it will let us slip right over those walls and grab Rome before Norway knows what happened.

If all goes well we should be able to take Neapolis next turn, and with growth, that will push us ahead of Norway into first place for the first time all game.  They are probably getting tunis which will push them back up once more but hey, we are making progress.

[Banzailizard]

Russia is beset by barbs, but what else is new.  Might loose a trader which would suck, but none of this is catastrophic.

So for the first time all game Sweden takes the lead. Its a measly 200 points or so but still. Norway will surely pop back into the lead at the start of next turn when they take Tunis which is redlined.  Not even our growth will keep us ahead, though that is only the short run.  Longrun still looks good for our pulling ahead.


This is how we got ahead: with some growth and a quick take down of Neapolis.  Odd are good we might steal the march on Rome as well.  Grot ran the numbers and with or crossbow, the siege tower, and three full hp zerkers (I moved one up from neapolis after I took this screenshot) , there is a quite good chance that we can grab the city next turn.  If we do, I am still fairly confident that we have essentially won the game.  At that point we will probably retire a number of our units since they will just be costing gold.

Here are our ERE lands. Athens will grow next turn, and the UI on Treb is not up to date, it will grow in 6, probably less once that lighthouse finishes.  More farms for Constantinople and Attalea for housing and food.  We also plan a plus sized farming triangle for Constantinople, Philippopolis and Preslav to share. We are testing how much gold the commercial hub project generates. It might be better than building traders and sending them out for gold.


One last picture of our northern lands. I left out Wolin I see now but its ok.  Next turn we found Minsk and use a new builder from Gnez to maybe get some more farming up. Its got the water, housing and food to grow like a weed and give us more points. Smolensk will finish its granary helping it grow as well.  Both our new Baltic cities are also going to grow in 2 turns.  Next turn we chop most of the way through a new settler in Apuole which can sail to Gottland or something to just get another quick city down. Its worth 85 points on settling and 60 more for each pop.  With 3 housing and maybe a purchased granary for the hell of it for more, it can get 3 maybe 4 pop by the end of the game.

[Grotsnot]

I didn't remember to upload screenshots but quick update:

Norway pulled off some sort of multi-attack trickery and took Rome out from under our noses The lvl4 Zerker in the T45 screenshot is <50% so I'm not completely sure how but they did. I guess the damage was not enough to make the difference Maybe we should have tried harder to conceal the siege tower but I'm not so sure it was even physically possible... Ah well.

They also took North Africa, as expected.

Venice remains a 3-way standoff. Our current objective is to tee it up for Denmark before Norway can get their multi-attack Zerker up there for a repeat performance. We took out half the wall this turn. Next turn, assuming our opponents do their jobs behave optimally in Sweden's interests we'll finish off the wall and knock it into the yellow, which should allow Denmark to finish it off with their LS+Z in the area before Norway can pick it up. The tricky parts are Denmark going along with it and at the right time - if the Danes decide it's not sporting to take what is in all honestly a pretty obvious alley-oop, then it's moot. Conversely, and less likely, if they attack this turn then Norway gets to finish it off.

After that we need to make up the difference by outgrowing the Norsk. Banzai ran some numbers and it sounds doable at this stage (if I remember correctly it more or less boils down to "Can Russia + ERE outgrow France by enough to net ~600VP"). If they get Venice our odds go way down but not totally sunk. I think we've blocked them from all-but-1 Settler site at this point - they can't reach the others by end-of-game. And the one is a landlocked tundra site in our northwest (amusingly I think it roughly corresponds to Jamtland) so worth <100VP. We just settled Minsk this turn and will reach Belozersky with enough time to grow a bit. Also have 2 more Settlers due out in Apuole and Riga but they'll probably have too much travel time to get more than 1 growth, if even that.

Feeling like it's gonna be close. Hopefully that's not just blind optimism

----

What's consoling fun to think about is that if Denmark hadn't gotten hosed in France we might very well have been running away with this game

[Banzailizard]

I did DL the turn last night and took a quick peek. 2 things to note for later:

1. With the trader in Neapolis sent to Constantinople as discussed there is a chance we can actually grow the population there before the end of the game. It moves to 17 turns to grow. We should divert the builder going to Salona to repair the Wine, and the builder at Dyrr, which just repaired the farm there, to go repair the crabs. That should give +1 housing moving it from the 75% to a 50% growth penalty. We can try to math it out quickly if that will have the desired effect. It will cost each of these builders 2-3 turns but that should be ok. Salona can work on the granary some more, it only needs the harbor by game end. The other was bound for Athens for a farming triangle but his friend is in Attalea and will take 6-7 turns to get over to Athens anyways. The one charge will not give Athens more housing so the builder time is better spent in Neapolis.

2. We need to run the numbers on if we can kill the barb horseman near Zap (yes it is somehow still alive) if not, we should just move the horse SW one tile to keep covering the builder and trader.

In good news our score increased more while Norway's flat-lined mostly, thus we narrowed the gap. Our growth numbers continue to look strong in all our cities. The Danes did not block Norway in Italy, but Norway also failed to capture Venice meaning we can tee up as planed. Hopefully CMF is not just pressing end turn now but instead notices the gift we are offering.

[Grotsnot]

Yeah I took a quick look this morning too. Venice is looking good, we should smash down the walls with a boat and then give the city a good kicking with a Z. Can disband most of our troops in the area too since Norway will absolutely take it next turn if Denmark turns it down.

We aren't gonna kill off the barb horse, sadly, so our pony should stick to Builder escort duty. Did we wanna buy that tile to get a farm trapezoid going between the two Wheats Zap and Odessa share?

The Neapolis plans sound good. Do you remember if the Trader alone is enough to finish the Harbor in time or do we also need to patch up some of their Marble/Iron/Stone?

Not too many build decisions this turn, either. Ladoga should wrap up it's EC (2t), which just leaves Wolin. IIRC an Arena and a Trader were both 5t to finish though they could also bang out Harbor Shipping (12t? I remember it was barely finishable). If the wiki is correct, it yields -to- at a 15% rate, gotta calculate how that compares to a Trader. Guessing Trader is better.
Also we could maybe swap off of the Horseman build in Russia but with the one barb still running around I'm not certain.

I don't remember all our workers, we've got like a dozen of them running around. Pretty much farm triangles and repairs and maybe a chop or two. Do you remember if it's worth patching the farms on Sicily or should that Builder run up to Neapolis?

[Banzailizard]

Sadly I do not remember either the turns to completion of the harbor in Neapolis or about the farm in Sicily. I think we calculated that Neapolis would make it with the +4 production from Con. 

I think Sicily has -1 housing so patching 2 farms and the fish could maybe score a pop but I doubt it.  Maybe we should just have the builder in Sicily run to the crabs in Neapolis and our Dyrr builder can run to Athens for maybe a bit more food there. Let's look at it tonight.

Not sure if it is worth buying the title. Do we know if either city will expand there? If not then yes assuming the builder can build there this turn. Not sure how ZOC works with civilian units.

Otherwise yes farming triangles are the name of the game right now.  Builder in Tmu can head over to Preslav to help finish that large triangle up. 

The 5 charge builder near Minsk is headed to farm for that city.

We were sending the one charge builder near Gnez to chop out a district for Apu (though I suppose we could chop out the settler to maybe give the city it founds one more turn to grow). 

Builder in Wolin can either go west and build 3 farms or east and build 4 farms and a fishing boat.  I recommend the latter, though the former will give more food to Wolin directly since it piggy backs off the existing farm triangle. The east route gives a boost to Apu by giving that city a farming triangle.

Builder with 1 charge can either improve Wolin's fish or build a farm for Apu.  Could also chop that last forest into something should we want to do so. 

Farmer near Kop can build a farm should secure us a growth in Kop by end of game. 

Wolin should work the trader I think.  It's basically 4 VP vs 1 amenity.  Not sure if that amenity will pay off.  We should look at how many unhappy cities we have and think which of those might actually benifit from the extra growth.

[Banzailizard]

Mostly a picture dump with some lines for context.  Not much going on right now to be honest just building up to try to get points.
We tee'ed up Venice for the Danes.  Hopefully CMF sees this and takes it next turn.  He might also opt not to get involved even if he does see it.  Builder on the wine, builder from Sicily going to the crabs.  1 housing should probably help Neapolis get one more growth.  Not pictured, I set Dyrrhachium to work the fish so it will grow in 3 turns not 6.  Should still finish the harbor in time even if we do not switch back to full production after.  Might even get another pop by end game.  Salona should get 1 more growth before the end of the game.
Also not pictured bought a LH in Constantinople.  Should get us 1 more growth by end of the game than not doing so.  Trading 240 gold (24 VP) for 60 is worth it. That big farming triangle should help too though that helps Philippopolis and preslav more. Athens will get 2 farms in the next 2 turns which should help.
Scores in this one too because it does not cover up anything else.  That number is right since I saved and exited waiting for any final input from Grot.  That for some reason updates the number.  Point is hey only 400 behind Norway.

Tmu is going to grow once more, maybe twice by end game.  Odessa will gain more growth after granary gives it housing.  I shifted Gnez citizens to make sure it could finish up the CH in time. Should not impact the amount of growth it gets by end game. Did the same for Voronezh but to make sure it grew one more before endgame.
Last the north of our empire. Wolin has 16 surplus food.  Yes surplus.  Farm in kop guaranteed growth by end of game.  I expect the 2 Baltic coastal cities will also both grow by end of game once the granaries are done. Putting down a new city next turn.  With Kiev, Minsk and Helsingfors that means 265 Vp. We will get plenty in the next few turns. If Norway takes Venice that "plenty" might not be enough but if the Danes get it, we should start outgrowing Norway in 5-6 turns depending where they are in their growth cycle.

[Banzailizard]

I will put up a report here, but quick note to Grot, the trade scores became odd after the patch.  They are still calculating correctly but both Norway and our capacities increased post patch.  They went from 29 to 37 (gain of 8) and we went from 34 to 41 (gain of 7). It is small and I am not sure what caused that but it benefits them more than us because of course it does.  


Speaking of the patch, have a nice screenshot of the new map overview feature.   All the colors changed. Honestly I rather like the slightly higher contrast. Looks much sharper. This mode feels more like its good for exactly this sort of turn post or an AAR than anything practical for the game, but hey its nice to have . Really shows off how many more cities we have than Norway too.

Norway did capture Venice this turn.  I sent CMF a declaration of friendship in the hopes that it would get home to look at Venice.  Either he is just pressing endturn at this point (and I could not blame him for that) or he for some reason did not want to get involved.  For that I could blame him since he could have gotten out of our way.  Maybe if we knew the patch was going to up wall HP we might have acted differently, but we didn't and so here we are with Norway 665 points ahead of us. 

What does that mean for scoring? Well we will plant 2 more cities for 85 points each. That leaves a gap of 495. Thus we would need roughly 9 more pop growth than Norway in the next 10 turns to win. This game might come down to faith and gold.

Let's go on the tour of the empire again.  Now that we are running colonial offices, built some more farms, and generally seem to be doing well on food and housing, I think things are looking up.  Norway is farming up all of France, as well they should.  The race here is between all our Russian lands, and their french lands. I do think we have the edge especially with all these builders we just got out.  With 12 turns left to go, all of these cities will grow at least once before end of game. Tornea and Uleaborg might not make it, depends how much the granaries help.  They will get chopped out harbors.  Probably one in our new city of Belozersky too. I expect Wolin, Apu, Riga, and Minsk to grow each at least twice, if not three times. We opted to wait a turn on chopping the settler out of Apu.  The one in Riga can finish next turn.  That will push the price up of the one in Apu.  We can then chop to get both out next turn rather than one this turn and the next in 2 turns. Had to fiddle with the citizens in Apu to make sure it does not grow this turn.  That way we get right backup to lvl 8 and can work on growing to lvl 9 again, rather than dropping only to lvl 8.  Worth 60 VP. 

We can also depend somewhat on growth here.  Constantinople will need the Thing (yes that is the name) policy card in 5 turns that gives 2 housing to cities with 3 specialty districts (remember harbors do not count in this). In 2 turns Constantinople will get another farm pushing the housing limit back by 1. In 5 turns Wolin and Apu can probably benefit from Thing as well (Wolin because it might be starting to get close to slowed, Apu because it will have a 3rd specialty district).   Philippopolis has 11 housing so it just needs the food from a farming triangle to grow and grow. Last turn it was at 5 turns. 2 food from the LH was enough to drive it to 1 turn to grow.  Imagine what the extra 4 food from the farming triangle next turn will do.
Nothing really to report in Italy. Both Dyrrhachium and Neapolis will get their harbors done by end game. Salona will as well with the help of a chop.

Just in terms of faith, if we keep this up we will finish the game with 3710 faith. That translates to 742 VP.  Norway should have about the same VP in gold, though I think it only will come to 650 ish.  Hopefully our gold cancels or exceeds their faith generation. Doubly hopefully our pop growth just blows theirs out of the water. I think we have many more viable for growth cities. Most of the rest of the game will now be pressing end turn, sending some traders when they are done, and hoping for the best.

Edit. Just some quick math. We can expect at minimum 3448 more points by the end of the game. 27*60 (each of our cities except for Sicily should grow at least once more)+2*50 (CH) + 6*50 (harbors)+742 (faith) + 406 (gold)+170 (two new cities each with 1 pop and 25 empire score). I think we can get more than 27 growth but I want this to be a low end estimate.

Its been a blast of a game either way.

[Banzailizard]

Mostly a picture dump again.  Not much to say.  Score is 13220 Norway to 12735 us. That is a 485 point spread.  If norway does not gain points next turn, then we will, though growth, be 5 VP behind them. And the turn thereafter we will just grow more. Next turn we plan to buy a settler for Gottland.  If we also buy a granary and swap off some fish from Apu, it should grow 3 times.  Amazingly that should more than make up for the almost 1k in investments. 1k of gold is worth 100 points.  Settling is worth 85, and one growth on top of that is now 145.  In general like I edited in last post, 3500 VP is a low end estimate, looking like we can get to 4 k maybe. We're feeling pretty good still about winning this game.

[Grotsnot]

I was driving the turn but gotta step away for the night. Here's a mid-turn save for ya Banzai, I killed that HC we were discussing: