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Meiz · September 22nd, 2020, 10:12

El Grillo · September 22nd, 2020, 10:18

I just woke up after a rough night of sleep and have a call with my client in half an hour, so this is going to have to be short and sweet.

The reason I kept my focus on thrawn and didn't address T-Hawk is because I wanted to give T-Hawk the benefit of the doubt for being new to forum werewolf and not being able to participate on Day 1. His play reminds me of Cyneheard's from the previous game, and recall that I was confident enough that he was town that I risked my life hiding behind him. Granted I was wrong in that case, and maybe I'm wrong here.

I haven't had the chance to read everything thrawn posted but I need to step back to my office for the next hour and a half.

Alhambram · September 22nd, 2020, 10:23

Unlike pindicator I have high opinion about politics. T-Hawk therefore won’t get vote from me.

Thrawn response after my vote looks good, altough I do argee with some arguments from kaiser.

El Grillo did seem supicious for me at start And then pindicator and meiz talked me out head that El Grillo is possible scum.

Therefore I shall sin myself with Flip flopping that I did accuse tharwn of, vote for El Grillo

Meiz · September 22nd, 2020, 10:26

I will then also go El Grillo. Though it's very bad timing he cannot really participate now to the discussion. His contributions for D1 have been much less than I would have anticipated.

pindicator · September 22nd, 2020, 10:29

It's not just T-Hawk, El Grillo. You mentioned other people too. But you've only been intent to focus on one.

@Alhambram - nothing wrong with flip-flopping in itself, it's more the reasoning behind the votes that are important. As you get more information your opinion should change. Unless you already have all the answers wink

BRickAstley · September 22nd, 2020, 10:36

Tally as of post 142:

Lynch votes
4 votes: El Grillo (pindicator, Alhambram, Meiz, thrawn)
3 votes: thrawn (El Grillo, T-hawk, Kaiser)
2 votes: T-Hawk (WarriorKnight, Amicalola)

Voting history:

24 Minutes Remaining.

Meiz · September 22nd, 2020, 10:37

4 votes: El Grillo (pindicator, Alhambram, Meiz, thrawn)
3 votes: T-Hawk (WarriorKnight, Amicalola, thrawn)
3 votes: thrawn (El Grillo, T-hawk, Kaiser)

As far as I understand the rule, El Grillo would now be lynched in a 4 vote tie, as he's now the first one receiving 4 votes. Brick can confirm if I'm mistaken.

Meiz · September 22nd, 2020, 10:37

And Brick's tally is correct of course.

Kaiser · September 22nd, 2020, 10:41

(September 22nd, 2020, 08:12)Kaiser Wrote: Overlap, thrawn was lyniching El Grillo and changed to Thawk while I was posting.
Read the question more why were you no lynching at all?

Quote:Meiz
Kaiser: "- giving up on hunting when it is not pindicator by no lynching?"
I don't think this is true at all, I don't feel like thrawn has been stuck on Pindicator in any suspicious manner, and the no lynch votes haven't at any point suggested not lynching today.

I realized that I missed one of thrawns votes in between and that he also voted Thawk while I was posting, that is the reason for my above post.
His vote was stuck on pindicator between #35 - #113, he voted me before and El Grillo afterwards.
You are correct that he gave reads on all other players as well.

(September 22nd, 2020, 08:33)thrawn - I\ll take the liberty to answer here as I believe it will be easier to follow Wrote: #85 the Codenames reference - this was an example of how the line of thinking T-Hawk was applying can lead to a wrong conclusion. Confirmation bias is when you look for facts/arguments that support your theory, and do not take into account other facts/arguments that contradict the theory. Something like 'A mafia person may play weird, this player plays weird, therefore this player is mafia', when a townie may also play weird, it's not just mafia that do, and the player may do things that a mafia person wouldn't.

Do not get me wrong, I already said the vanilla townie declaration has been overrated and I do not follow his argument either.
I understand him that he believes a power wolf might try to hide his role by strongly claiming the opposite, vanilla townie. I think this reasoning is simple and it would be a ballsy wolf play to execute. This here is actually one of my doubts about Thawk, especially as he follows it up with a we can sacrifice thrawn, maybe we get a power wolf.
However I do not get why you do not call him out on the simple idea behind his suspicion (which you actually do after re-reading that passage). The Codenmaes example seems far fetched and overly forgiving. At least I know think it unlikely that you and Thawk are wolves

#86 - this was referencing #75 "Pindi, if you are reliably not good D1, that's still very good. Give us a couple of people who you think are mafia, and when you die and flip village we can safely clear them smile" - which was half joke but also wanted him to commit to some read/statement.

Ok, a more specific question would have helped getting an answer and divert suspicion I believe.

#88 - I started with plenty of activity when everything everyone else was doing was answering the questionnaire and not interacting with each other. I am doing it now too. And note that when he posted it was just after my night was ending and a little before I woke up so it's understandable that I was not posting while sleeping

I see your activity, although sometimes it switches between between valuable content and commentary, which I believe is why people have the feeling that you are flip-flopping. It is just that your activity is not in line with your post #46 where you intend to change the vote many times during the day to apply pressure. You ended up changing your vote just recently #113

#94 - you have an argument on Meiz in #110 - "Meiz. Started with being helpful and advising caution, he could have easily left it and appear just as helpful later. He has been solid and reasonable on everything throughout."

thanks over-read that one

- speaks about (#110) a guaranteed way of hitting a wolf on Day 1 or Day 2 sacrificing a villager. It would be very good if we can manage that but do not see that there is a guaranteed way to do so and failing that, we might be already at lylo (check my post #69) in my worst case scenario

If you have a guaranteed way let's do it. I don't and am trying to balance the risks to get the highest probability of at least one wolf lynch D1 and D2.

I dont and that is what I dislike in this scenario, among the fact that 3 mislynches might mean game over.
I also felt that you might have fallen victim to the confirmation bias you were talking about earlier. Your scenario only covered your list of suspects (which has at least partial resonance with many other players including me) and based a game plan to hit at least 1 wolf on the first two days. However I believe it highly likely that at least one of the top voted suspects (thrawn and Thawk) is actually an already aligned mislynch by the wolves.
So only 50% chance of hitting a wolf, which in reality is even lower as the wolfs could (and likely do) play good and could have managed to avoid being on the suspect list at all on day 1.
On top of that you pick as your recommendation El Grillo, who is suspicious but at least currently not voted.

I can understand balancing risks but the way you did it in this most did not look very balanced to me

- it gets worse (#113) strategizing around El Grillo (Day 1 lynch), Thawk (Day 2 lynch) and then Alhambram and Amicalola afterwards depending on developments. I do not see the need to set the people up that much right now "and if both El Grillo and Thawk turn out village", we likely do not have many bad shots left anymore

Well when you lynch you have to consider what if the person is a villager. And when you lynch twice you have to consider what if both are villagers because that's the worst case scenario. You have room to navigate otherwise. So in that worse case you better have an option for the third because 3 mislynches are gg unless we have a genius doctor/jailer. I don't think anyone has thought ahead nearly as far as I have so it's unfair to ask me for a specific lynch on day 3 when no one has even discussed day 2, and the new information will change the landscape.

maybe my sentence was bad, I was not asking you for a specific lynch on day 3, I was pointing out that I think it unwise to pre-define the lynch order like you did. Especially on day one where we have the worst information situation of the game. I think I understand now that the names given by you were more an example setup?

Your questions:

- I would like you to consider and lay out why you are thinking that the suspicion against you is "contrived"?

By this I mean unjustified attacks without any good fact support. Some prodding is ok and to be expected but this has been over the top and conjuring arguments where they don't exist. I think I've answered every accusation well and yet they persist. I can go dig up the specific points if you want, for example I was never hard on pindi, just happened to ask a couple of questions in a row and intended to move on but got caught up with something else (in RL) and didn't get back to it. It was blown out of proportion. Also I never ever suggested anything like no-lynch. How did that accusation come into being? I simply took the vote off for the moment because that was what I was accused of in the first place!

I quoted that word as you used it to defend yourself with it without giving details. Here are some and I am happy to give my input on them.
- I agree on your pindi stance, you were not overly hard and you provided reads on others.
- Though you left your vote on him for a long time contradicting one of your earlier statements how you would behave, this one has been my main issue with your play
- I think going twice to no lynch was unwise, the first time was explaining it and the 2nd time you switched to El Grillo as the next vote which I missed in my big post

- Why are you no lynching at the moment? What do you want to achieve with that?

If you check the posts before yours I was lynching. I said I'll follow Meiz, then he said make your own stance and I did on EG but also said T-Hawk is also someone I'd go for and since the consensus is there, afterwards switched - all of this happened before your post.

Yeah, my bad realized it right after

- How do you see your wolf lynch strategy in the light of a potential lylo on day 3?

That's too far to say, a lot will change. As I said, I'd like to have one wolf lynched between D1 and D2 and would rather guarantee a wolf and sacrifice a citizen than go for two wolves risking double failure. I think balancing the risk this way is always good town play but let the experts confirm that. I presented the different teams I see and am trying to pick two people from there that cover all possibilities. Unfortunately there is a bit of a gap but I think we can't go wrong with either T-Hawk or EG.

You were a potential person in my camp here as well, naturally you are not offering yourself here. However it is possible wolves might have been trying to set you up based on your slip up in voting behaviour vs. announced voting strategy.
It looks like they were trying to find further arguments to make a better case.

- Are you stating that you are so sure on either T-Hawk or El Grillo being a wolf that you would bank the game on it?

You have to take a risk, there are no guarantees. It's not just about them but also who their teammates are and narrowing it down. But if you look at the team combos there is one of them present in almost every one. I'm not sure I can clear WK but so far he's far less suspicious than the others. The only concern I have with lynching T-Hawk is as I said before - that I don't have a good feel for his thinking in general and so he may be doing something normal. That's why I went with EG first, and as I said you have to take some risk and these two are the ones I'd currently bet on.

Ok (time constraints)

- What are your reasons and style for your erratic/inconsistent behaviour so far?

A number of reasons. Navigating chaos is much more difficult while trying to craft a story as mafia so it's giving them opportunities to slip or let something leak. Presenting myself as an easy target but not quite also leads to overpursuit. And the periods of inactivity were simply me doing something else. As I said in the very questionnaire when I'm off, I'm off. But there are no actual inconsistencies and I'll be happy to explain the reasons for everything like I have done so far in this post. Btw I also said in the questionnaire that I'll be experimenting - which means exactly doing different and untraditional things. That questionnaire does come useful, ironically...

Hm, I think you are right that you presented a good target and that there might be an overpursuit. A tight vote situation might have forced the 2nd wolf to jump on the same target to protect its buddy if we (hopefully) have one on the lynch list.

And as I said - if someone is accusing me and votes for me, please state: who are my possible teammates, who am I trying to mislynch (T-Hawk or EG?), and what would my reasonable follow up tomorrow be when the lynched person turns out a villager?

I would have joined you with either El Grillo or Thawk as both voted only you at the time I started this post. Alternatively Alhambram or Amicalola more likely the latter due to his recent vote on you.

Thank you for the detailed answers, I have a better feeling for you now and would like to investigate someone else. I see possible wolf teams based on my current remaining top suspects: Thawk and El Grillo

Either El Grillo or Thawk / Alhambram or Amicalola trying to set up thrawn or Thawk (in case he is not part of the wolf team) as the lynch. I base this on El Grillo focusing on thrawn for Day 1 and

Quote:Alhambram
Thrawn: flip flopping votes whole time makes me hard to grasp your intentions. Also voted for no lynch twice, which is best outcome if you hypothetically have wofl power role.

this untrue statement, as thrawn was doing a lot but not flip-flopping his votes. See my argument above.
I challenge that no lynch would be the best outcome for a power wolf as lylo would be pushed a day by no lynch (see post 69). Apart from that I have established now for myself that the no lynching by thrawn has been a no issue.

Can you enlighten us @Alhambram?

Sadly I am not convinced that a Thawk lynch would give us much information due to the current 4 / 4 vote. I would like to see where pindicator places his vote but have no time left.
I am suspicious of Thawk but feel stronger for El Grillo as I was hoping to get more insights why he focused so much in thrawn Day 1

Kaiser · September 22nd, 2020, 10:45

I started my post on #128 or #129, interesting that a switch over to El Grillo happened in the mean time.

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