[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[marcopolothefraud]

But it's so often undercut with things like the byzantine amenities system, the overly-punitive loyalty system (and grievance system in SP - it's impossible to fight a war and engage meaningfully with the diplomatic side of the game), the random tile picker, etc. It's a great game that's held back by the complete absence of AI competition in SP and by so much randomness in MP.

Hmm...this is an important point to talk about. I think we can fix these issues with mods.

The byzantine amenities system: Here is a mod on the Steam Workshop, still working as of Oct 2020, that can help. +2 amenities from bonus resources, +1 amenity from strategic resources. Only the first copy will generate amenities.

The overly-punitive loyalty system: Here is a mod on the Steam Workshop that disables Loyalty completely. As of Jan 2021, the author is struggling to maintain the mod. Here is a mod on the Steam Workshop that lessens the effects of Loyalty, and it appears to work as of Oct 2020.

The random tile picker: I can't find a mod that changes the randomness. Here is a mod that reduces gold-purchase cost of tiles, though I'm not sure if we need it or not. It works as of Jul 2018, so I will need to check if it still works. (In general, tile expansion is very important in the early game, and falls off in usefulness in the mid to late game.)

Natural disasters deleting units: Here is a mod that disables natural disasters. It crashes the game upon the Information Era, but that won't matter for our PBEM games. Works as of Nov 2020.


It might be a little inconvenient to ask all of our multiplayer community to install these mods. Our games also last over months, during which Firaxis implements patches that may break a game or a mod. Perhaps when Civ 6 finishes its development cycle, we can trust these mods for our multiplayer games.

Is there someplace else I should post this? Like in the Civilization General Discussion forum?

[williams482]

Unfortunately, the fixes to these things are much more subtle. The problem with amenities isn't that there aren't enough or they do too much (and Firaxis has been tweaking them recently to make ECs useful, etc), it's that the player has no ability to control how they are distributed, and there are cases (like this one!) where how they are distributed makes all the difference in the world. I'd be pumping Wild and Bruins full of happy stuff if I could, even at the expense of Blues, Blackhawks, and the developing cities, because I desperately need to keep those people loyal. Not only can I not do that, but I can't even guarantee that the roughly even distribution I'm stuck with won't leave Wild as one of the few unhappy cities. Most likely, whatever nonsense algorithm the game uses pays no notice whatsoever to loyalty concerns. Why can't I use, say, the city status report to assign all the amenities I currently have to whichever cities I want, restricted as appropriate by strictly local amenity sources, luxuries, etc? The game already feels it necessary to notify me whenever a city is unhappy, so it's not like I'll be constantly forgetting about it and leaving cities out to dry because a luxury trade expired. At least, no more than I already am.

Similar deal with the tilepicker. The obvious thing the game should do is just let you chose which tile you want to expand to next. Make 3rd ring tiles cost more culture than 2nd ring, let the tilepicker make it's own decision if you don't want to pick one, but give the players some bloody choices on how to spend their damn resources.

Both of those things might be possible to fix with a mod, and if someone has a stable mod for one or both I am extremely interested, but they are definitely trickier than simply shuffling some values in a .xml file.

For loyalty, I'd like to see how it does with +0.5 loyalty per pop, ranging from +0.25 to +0.75 in golden/dark ages. I think the mechanic is okay, and there's some fun stuff you can do with it, but it's much too harsh, and mostly exists because the AIs are morons who love idiotic forward settles, but the obvious solution to someone forward settling you (conquer their exposed city) is harshly punished by warmonger penalties and now grievances (although to be fair, the grievance system is notably less stupid than the warmonger hate was. Still bad, but less so).

As for disasters, we can shut disaster level to 0. I'm pretty sure that eliminates them entirely. To be honest, though, this is one thing I'm least worked up about. Outright unit deaths should never be allowed, but as is they are extremely rare: even our warrior almost certainly died because he was a little under half health when that flood happened, and presumably took 50 damage from the flood. It would be much better if units lost 50% of their remaining hit points, but avoiding having <50 HP near a tile which can have a disaster on it isn't too hard, if you know how these poorly documented mechanics work. And other than random unit deaths (and the obviously broken meteor strikes and forest fires in NFP), the disaster system is actually pretty well done: you get some interesting risk/reward tradeoffs, but rarely anything truly crippling or completely game breaking.

[williams482]

Turn 187:

Mass Production completes:



The imbecilic amenity distributor spared Wild for this turn, and instead makes Bruins the victim of it's idiotic impulses. That drives Bruins below 50 loyalty, drives the Entertainment Complex build all back to being 7 turns out, and dooming both cities. There is zero chance both can hold out even with amenities restored without the Bread and Circuses project running a few turns sooner, which means we need to be realistic and switch to loss mitigation mode.

That means what, exactly? Not much. These cities are crippled by lack of loyalty, they can't had build anything in the time they have before they change hands, with the exception of that nearly completed builder at Wild. Unfortunately I'm not allowed to pillage my own lands to recoup cash and faith. There are two governors occupied in those cities (Magus and Victor), but there is no great need for either one elsewhere as I have no plans to chop anything. The World Congress is in three turns, and there is one possible resolution that could save us: Migration Treaty, which if secured gives us +5 loyalty in all cities but -20% pop growth. It's highly unlike that it would be proposed, of course, but we have the second most diplo favor of anyone, and it's a pretty weak resolution all around, unlikely to draw many votes in either direction. I guess the best thing to do is just hold tight for the next three turns, set up to carry out chops, and hope against hope that yet another nonsensically randomized part of this game decides to throw us a bone for once.

Our cavalry was not attacked, surprisingly. Encampment defenses are gone, but the encampment itself healed all bleed through damage. We'll see if that continues next turn. Pushing forward a tile reveals the same units in the same spots as before:



Pushing further still with the cav out of Blackhawks reveals a Pike & Shot on an under-construction +1 IZ (why? And why there? There's a +4 spot where the pillaged cow pasture is, and there's no way a +1 IZ, max of +2 with another district, has a positive ROI right now). 



I'd love to pillage that quarry, but 119 faith isn't worth a dead cav so we're going to have to pass. Suboptimal has already plucked all the easy pillages on our side of the Saint Lawrence, and Kaiser seems to have learned that repairing those pillages isn't exactly profitable right now, so there just isn't much for us to raid without getting smacked hard for our troubles. I pull back the advance units to their usual positions. The field canon in the Bruins encampment shoots Burke again. We'll see how much damage the next shot does to the encampment, and pull out if it's a net loss of HP after healing. Kaiser netting two oil last turn, not three, so he either upgraded or (more likely, given his gold reserve increases and lack of milpower spikes) started building either an artillery or infantry unit.

The gossip screen reveals that England has at least four battleships who received promotions last turn. These are presumably saved Terracotta Army promotions, and the fact that Suboptimal is taking them now presumably means he plans to use them. Two of them took Bombardment (level 1, +7 vs district defenses), the other two took Rolling Barrage (level 2, +10 vs district defenses), so Suboptimal clearly intends to use them for blasting away at cities. As a refresher, here's the Egyptian coast:



Note that the encampment has already taken some damage, as has Alara Kitan. Ed Mercer and Isaac are also vulnerable to English battleships. Gordon Malloy is within three tiles of the coast, but is presumably protected by the banana jungle hill 1W of the encampment. Suboptimal has also done a fine job pulling closer in beaker rate, now trailing by a mere 3, 175 to 178, without even repairing the disaster-pillaged Cleggy campus.

Red Wings completed an EC, an Arena (7t) seems the obvious next build. Out of respect for the English preference towards settling as few cities as possible, I have decided on two rapid developing spots along their eastern coast, instead of three slightly cramped cities. Canadiens is a future industrial complex with a little investment, with what looks like enough room for an aqueduct and dam around a would-be +6 IZ, plus a dockyard and a +2 campus fed by a monster farm triangle due north. Flames is slightly weaker, but has two different spots for a +3 campus, both of which could be +4 with enough districts thrown in. There's no great IZ spot and food will be tougher to come by, but chops and/or lumber mills gallore to get whatever you do want to build first out quickly.



Our wandering warrior reaches Phoenician borders, then realizes he can't actually enter them. I offer Woden open borders, but failing that we'll just go around. Or, I suppose, go home to be upgraded. That's probably not a bad idea either.

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

While I'm most philosophical about the loss of Bruins and Wild, given we haven't been in contention since about turn 50*, it is a little bit irritating that they're falling because of the whims of the idiotic amenity allocator rather than any active effort on England's part. I want to be beaten by other humans, not by the RNG.

*

since turn 1 if we're being honest

[williams482]

Turn 188:

Woden has deigned to grant us passage into his lands. Shells are falling on Egypt:



Kaiser has 7 oil now, and saw a substantial milpower spike. I strongly suspect he has an artillery unit now, as an infantry would have raised his city defenses. Suboptimal has earned three, indicating his first source has been connected. The oil tiles I identified last turn have not had yield increases, so either he hooked up a source on one of the few fogged tiles, or he has an oil source under a district somewhere.

Bruins' encampment is at 82/100 health, meaning Kaiser dealt 48 damage last turn, and 20 was healed back. The encampment shows a defensive strength of 63. The city proper (with a musket inside) is 73, so this isn't a loyalty-based malus. Base strength should be 64 - 10 = 54, +4 for two districts, +9 for three levels of walls, +3 for being on a hill, +5 for Victor = 75? If the district strength display is including a -12 for the level of damage, then that's about right. My recollection is that it didn't show strength reductions for damage last time this was relevant, but we have had game updates since.

Anyway, we'd expect a double promoted bombard to average about 32 damage against a 63 strength district, 22 if I move the cuirassier in. dealing 38 was most likely an extremely lucky roll. However there's no discernable tactical advantage to taking potshots at walls from a district that Kaiser might be able to capture, and will almost certainly flip in the next 10 turns anyway, so I should probably just start withdrawing units.

Regarding future flips:



The amenity distributor has finally decided to be nice to us, and every city in our empire except the irrelevant Capitals location is now content. Currently Wild is on track to flip in 6, Bruins in 9. Egypt has also added enough extra pressure that Bruins is currently slated to flip to a free city instead of straight to England, but the pressure added when Wild flips will secure that city as English anyway. I move the builder just finished in Wld towards the jungle banana hill, and will be able to start chopping on t190. That should both delay the flip and deny Suboptimal a good tile (although he'll probably just stick a +3 campus there instead, so this isn't exactly a crushing loss for England). I decide to start Wild on a Workshop, tentatively due in 16. I don't expect to ever finish this build, but if I do it will be half of a valuable boost, and there is nothing better for me to build in this crippled city. Blackhawks has also finished a builder, and I decide to splurge for 140g buying a tile for a discounted encampment, due in 7. Kaiser won't have anywhere better to attack if he does get around to attacking again, and I intend to be ready.

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Either a lucky roll or we're miscalculating the damage somehow. Is bombardment damage affected by things like diplomatic visibility or great generals? I don't THINK Kaiser has a GG but if he had one in the fog directing the bombardment that might tip the difference. Or if he has a spy in Blues running Listening Post missions, something I found effective in my Polish game. I'd imagine he'd use the spy against the far more dangerous* English or Punic civilizations, but he might have built multiples amidst all his wonder chasing.

I can't really blame the good citizens of Wild and Bruins for wanting to secede and move to greener pastures. It's not like the government in Blues has done much for them anyway (apart from a valiant defense against the Egyptian, in the case of Bruins). Life in England, with its many campuses and museums and wonderful buildings, does seem nicer than in hardscrabble desert-and-tundra Canada.

*in theory, at least, if somewhat disappointing in practice.

[williams482]

Turn 189:

Bruins Encampment is now at 63/100, so Kaiser dealt another 38 damage. He does have a +3 strength bonus for diplomatic visibility that I had not noticed (likely a spy mission, as you mentioned), which is enough to tip the average up to 37. There's our answer. Kaiser also recruited Gustavus Adolphus (Renaissance+Industrial) in 1060 AD, but there's no way to tell if he's affecting our units. The Egyptian front looks pretty much the same as before, except that Kaiser has begun an encampment at Bortus:



I'm speculating that this indicates he has no plans for invading Canada in the immediate future (naturally, he is under attack himself right now) and wants to better protect his currently pillaged tiles once he repairs them. That encampment will certainly make things more dangerous for our scouts, I won't be able to push as deep as I have in this screenshot while still getting back safely.

Suboptimal continues shelling the english coastline:



He also recruited a Great Admiral and pillaged the market at Isaac with a cav.

I decide to swap off Naval Tradition (one turn from completion) and return to Civil Engineering. All our cities except Capitals are content right now, so another amenity in most cities isn't actually going to make any difference. I can make the switch a turn later if we do receive our deliverance from the World Congress resolution picker and feel that more amenities will actually do something, otherwise we're just burning a policy slot on delaying the inevitable.

Kaiser continues to pull in two oil per turn, and started building Potala Palace for some reason. Still no convenient barb camp spawns.

Now we bow down in prayer to the almighty god of international diplomacy, and ask that they deliver unto us a nationalistic fervor with which to protect our sovreign lands from the filthy art loving English heathens. 

There's definitely no way that could backfire on us, right?

Scores:

[williams482]

I could try to sign a cultural alliance with Kaiser. Unfortunately that requires the following, in sequence:

1) I stop being stubborn and agree to peace (possible)
2) Kaiser is willing to sign a DoF (I doubt it. We're obviously the softest target around if he can fight off England, we're right next door, and we can't hurt him)
3) Kaiser is willing to accept a cultural alliance, which he should be willing to do to stop my cities from flipping.

Hell, that's maybe worth a go right now. Kaiser, if he's paying attention, should know that my cities are in dire straights, and that England is going to get them (not him). A cultural alliance would eliminate a large amount of the cultural pressure on both Wild and Bruins, likely preventing Suboptimal from flipping them. I'd need three turns to send peace + DoF + alliance, just barely enough time, but I'm concerned Kaiser will just take the peace deal and leave it at that.

CMF, your thoughts?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Well, Kaiser might welcome the breather, given his defensive fortifications. If it would work, and preserve Bruins and Wild a bit longer, I think it's worth pursuing.

Would it work? Assume for sake of argument that Kaiser cooperates. Would the loss of Egyptian pressure stabilize Bruins and Wild? Could England respond with more Great Works, Bread and Circuses, etc.? If we lose the cities either way, maybe we stay stubborn and try to drag Egypt down any way we can. But if we can save the cities, and continue to build and scratch and claw to stay - well, not in the game, we were never in the game, but at least stay respectable - then I think it's worth a shot. It's worth noting that Sub hasn't tried especially hard to flip Wild, but that might be a product of him counting on it falling into his lap without any especial effort.

Final question: If we did save our cities, what would the next intermediate/long-term goal be? We are bringing off the military upgrade plan nicely, but this is probably the last era of tech we can manage in time. When our next customers arrive they'll probably come booming, with balloons and artillery, and that will be the end of us unless we have an answer ready. 38 turns of guaranteed peace from Kaiser is a LONG time to prepare an answer, though.

[williams482]

If we can get that 38 turns of peace from Kaiser (and ~33 turns from Suboptimal, who might not be pleased about a change of heart) and save our cities, even if Bruins is confined to pumping B&C for the rest of the game, we can get Oil in that timeframe. I calculated 13 turns ago that a no-frills, all-boost beeline to Refining would take roughly 53 turns, and our science rate has crept up from the 80 we were sitting on then. Our prospects of killing anything with a musket look increasingly slim, which will cost us a few turns, but I bet I can still shave off some time with some micro effort and growth.

Unfortunately we'll need more help than that to get actual oil units, but that puts us just one tech away from Steel for enhanced city defenses, and one artillery unit will make those city strikes hurt a lot. We should also have corps by then, and although cuirassier corps are definitely outclassed by infantry and tanks, that's close enough to be worth deciding on the battlefield. Steel is also the end of this era in the game where offensive warfare is especially hard and being ahead in tech makes you nearly invulnerable to invasion, which gives us a shred of hope of actually exploiting our enemies aimless behavior.

That plan has an awful lot of load bearing wind in it, but what else have we got to work with?

As for if removing Egyptian loyalty pressure would save our cities, Isaac is applying 13 * 0.4 = 5.2 points of loyalty pressure to Wild, and 13 * 0.5 = 6.5 points to Bruins. Burke is applying 9 * 0.2 = 1.8 to Wild and 9 * 0.6 = 5.4 points to Bruins. I'm pretty sure removing that pressure, chopping out a few more pop points at Wild, and running B&C in Bruins would put us in the black at both cities provided we can keep them happy, and still allow Wild to actually build stuff for us. Suboptimal could probably turn the tide by settling Avalanche and running his own B&R projects, but at least the first of those has been an obvious right decision since last time Thrawn checked our thread. Why start now?