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(June 7th, 2021, 14:59)civac2 Wrote: Are you going to spread one of the religions (Confu)?
Yes, Confu for Theocracy later. I'm still debating whether to go for Education for Universities + Oxford, in which case Organized Religion will boost hammers on that infrastructure. Really the decision comes down to whether we are in this for a rapid militarization at Steel/Military Science/Military Tradition/Astronomy, or whether we are in this for the long game into the Industrial era. In the long game a FIN-Bureaucracy-Oxford capital is probably be the best play here. That will be a huge hammer investment but also a huge research boost. In the short game I focus those hammers instead into Colosseums and then either start on military builds or build Research.
June 8th, 2021, 16:05
(This post was last modified: June 9th, 2021, 10:49 by Cornflakes.)
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TBS remained peaceful and turned on research to Gunpowder, a 3-turn tech for him at -260 gpt full burn. What is his research target?
• Does he purely what Gunpowder? Muskets won't hold up vs. Pinch Cuirs that OH will be fielding shortly.
• Is he aiming for Military Science and/or Steel? That would be my guess.
• Rifling is another possibility, with gunpowder for security ahead of the more economic-oriented techs
In fact if TBS double-bulbed Chemistry and supplemented with wealth/research builds he could reach one of Steel or Military Science in about 10 turns. Given the fast teching pace I've all but decided to pursue Education for the Oxford play. The key question now is how do I deter aggression from my neighbors? I currently have far less power than Pindicator and TBS, and OH's graph has started rising over the last couple turns. Tech-wise I could head to Rifling after Education. I have 2 GScientists coming in the next half dozen turns. I could use the first to bulb 60% of Education and the 2nd to bulb 80% of Printing Press (worth +45 commerce per turn). That would leave me just Gunpowder + Replaceable parts (worth 25 hammers per turn) + Rifling. The Rifling path picks up about +10% commerce +8% production empire-wide from passive tile yield boosts (requiring no additional infrastructure builds). That sounds pretty tasty compared to other military-oriented options. With 2-promo AGG Rifles I should be able to dissuade aggression and focus on the decisive commando factory + naval supremacy end game objectives. Meanwhile over the next 10-15 turns I can pursue the following foreign policy:
TBS: I need to continue my friendly posturing. I built a fort on one of my 2 incense this turn in order to provide immediate acces when Calendar completed end of turn (I have an abundance of worker labor now with little to do). After the turn roll I offered an Incense gift to TBS in return for the two luxuries he has been sending me. I'll put a plantation on the 2nd incense on my turn so I won't even lose a turn of access ... not that I need the luxury, I'm currently OK with all the HR garrisons with ancient obsolete units.
Pindicator: We have 2 land borders where I can be hit with knights from the fog due to his cultural supremacy. I will stuff some (relatively) cheap pikes into both border cities. Pindicator picked up Guilds + Banking in the last couple turns and those are prerequisites on the path to Rifling. Not sure what he is researching now. I really would like research visibility on him as well but his cheap ultra-early UU gives him an EP advantage which can't be matched without running the slider.
OH: I don't see how a naval invasion from OH would be profitable for him. I'll put a couple pikes into that border city to prevent an opportunistic raze (which would relieve some culture pressure from him, and against which I couldn't retaliate). But otherwise I'll continue to treat that coastal border as secure.
Post GA demos:
Down to 4th place MFG but I have a few workshops yet to convert from farms so that will bump up another 15 in the next 4 or so turns. I'm 2nd in food now that I put a bunch of specialists back to work on coast. TBS will pull further ahead as his Persian war spoils come out of resistance and grow into some nicely developed cottages. I'm really hoping that Pindicator and OH double-team TBS. That would be an ideal opportunity for me to gain some territory while dragging the leader back.
June 11th, 2021, 12:03
(This post was last modified: June 11th, 2021, 12:03 by Cornflakes.)
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One thing that has been bugging me is TBS's espionage graph. About 30 turns ago his graph started diverging from OH and I. I noticed it almost immediately because I lost graphs as our EP ratio decreased below 100% even though TBS didn't actually invest any more EP against me.
When I turn on the grid lines it looks like TBS is getting +8 EP/turn total (4 more than the palace provides). This looks like a spy specialist or two courthouses. I'm not aware of any early buildings (or wonders) other than Courthouse that provide EP or spy specialist slots. The bump comes right around the time that I founded Confucianism, notice it is about 15 turns before my first courthouse was built (where my EP graph diverges from Old Harry's). Did I beat TBS to Code of Laws by a single turn, and then he immediately whipped 2 courthouses without building a single one since? And the steady increase of +4/t is too low to be 10% EP slider or a GSpy specialists. Great Wall provides +2 spy GPP but not EP.
Speaking of EP, I've been considering the cost/benerit of running the EP slider vs. Pindicator to achieve research visibility and deny city visibility. One turn of breakeven *should* get me there (EP wouldn't quite add up to the current cost, but reduction due to more equitable EP ratio rebalancing should be enough to put me over the threshold). That would set me back one turn on all future techs, about 300 beakers now. I could potentially gain about 5% research efficiency in the near term by saving gold and then targeting techs after Pindicator researches them. After 6000 beaker-worth of tech research that would break even. Hmmm ... thats just 3 renaissance techs. But that would only be applicable if the additional knowledge resulted in intentional delay of my research for a couple turns while waiting for Pindicator to finish a tech, in order to achieve the known tech bonus. And I also give up any benefit that I would otherwise achieve from researching the tech earlier (e.g. +40c/t from Printing Press villages and towns). I'm not convinced. With open borders signed he has all the city visibility that he wants anyway. Actually given his sky-high EP rate from early Sacrificial Alters it wouldn't surprise me if he achieves city investigation level on all of us ... he may already have it on the others.
Tech Progress since last Comparison (T115, 12 turns ago):
• Cornflakes: Researched Banking, Construction, Engineering, Masonry, Monotheism, Calendar, Paper
• OH: Researched Nationalism, Education
• TBS: Researched Construction, Engineering, Gunpowder
• Pindicator: Guilds, Banking, Aesthetics, Literature, Divine Right
I caught up quite a bit vs. the field, but most of my progress was inflated by 8 turns of golden age over those 12 turns. Pindicator has been maintaining a steady small treasury balance and fairly even GNP graph. He likely has a bank now in his shrine city, and is probably supplementing with wealth builds as needed to fund 100% researching. Divine Right just finished last turn so Spiral Minaret is incoming shortly. Based on the current trajectory I'm liking Pindicator's position more and more. If he can go another 20 turns unmolested he will be in a very solid position indeed. I also underestimated the near-eternal length of OH's golden age. He has legitimately 20 more turns of golden age to boost yields and swap civics for free. By the end that will equate to 44 turns of GA out of 150 total turns! Impressive! If OH had more land that could be decisive, as-is I think it it is merely adequate to keep pace with Pindicator and TBS. I'm still with the pack, but I am squeezing out my last ounce of energy just to keep up. The big question: Can I navigate the "AI Diplomacy" to give myself an opening, or will I end up getting devoured by a pack of wolves?
June 17th, 2021, 12:30
(This post was last modified: June 17th, 2021, 13:19 by Cornflakes.)
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Tempting, tempting  if only there was a way to capitalize. Problem is that if I had my commando factory and a fleet of galleons staged I can't just take knock out TBS or I earn a mortal enemy to drag me down while the others continue in peace. My long-term game plan is to get my commando factory set up, then wait for someone to make a first move against someone, then set up commando and amphibious strikes on the other two contenders to knock them out. With this in mind, my medium-term goal is Westpoint (Military Tradition) which at 550 hammers is the longest remaining piece of the commando factory equation. I can research to Military Science in the time it will take to build Westpoint.
And speaking of other contenders ...
OH has 2 Great Artists ... I wonder if this is intentional or low-odds rolls? Are these in preparation for war (culture bombing) or culture victory attempt? Victory screen shows rival best as TBS with <2000 culture in his capital.
Pindicator is assembling a stack of knights in his capital so it is currently not vulnerable to the EvilPlot™ that I cooked up recently. But I will continue monitoring as I unlock that capability. This version of RtR even allows caravels to transport 1 military unit so I could sneak in a surprise attack with just 2 caravels and 2 commando grenadiers if the beachhead city and the capital both return to just single-warrior garrisons.
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(June 17th, 2021, 12:30)Cornflakes Wrote: ...Wetpoint.
...
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This turn OH proposed war with TBS in 8 turns. I replied suggesting war with Pindicator, and pointing at Pindi's shrine city. I feel like I have a decent relationship built up with TBS and multiple trades that I don't want to break off. Also Pindicator has great naval access to my core so it would be nice if he was knocked down. I don't really have the military technology to participate in any war in a meaningful fashion, but if I get point OH towards who I perceive as the greater threat then so much the better! TBS already has Gunpowder and started researching Philosophy so I presume he is headed to Nationalism for the draft, which he can use efficiently in his new captures.
June 21st, 2021, 10:04
(This post was last modified: June 21st, 2021, 13:45 by Cornflakes.)
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OH converted to Police State and ... Free Religion  Was that a misclick intended for Theocracy? He's running Bureaucracy instead of Vassalage so maybe he just wants the low cost religion civic while pre-building units and will then convert to Vassalage/Theocracy when completing units. OH also didn't follow up in any way to my diplo response where I pointed at Pindicator. His Heroic Epic city produced a Cuirassier last turn and multiple cities have been completing Oromo Warriors for a couple turns now. He could swap to Nationhood in 5 turns and draft 3 Oromo per turn to boost his military output but I still don't see how that would give him a decisive edge over anyone if fighting alone. He needs one of Pindicator or I to pile on. But I don't see how arming for war and joining myself will better my chances.
My 5 universities completed end of turn so I can start Oxford now (an 8-turn build). I'm up to 1600 gold in the treasury now. I could save for 1 more turn and then burn for 8 turns through Philosophy > Nationalism > Military Tradition in order to get started on West Point construction ASAP. Alternatively I could wait a few more turns so that some or all of the current treasury balance can be used for research with Oxford online. Another advantage of waiting is that TBS and/or Pindicator could research Nationalism for an additional +6% known tech bonus.
In order to build Commandos I need Vassalage + Theocracy in addition to West Point. That is a 2-turn revolt outside of a GA. For my next GA I need 3 GPP. I have a pure scientist birthing in 6 turns, and a 70/30 Artist/Engineer on track for 30-turns (which I could accelerate by a few turns at the expense of some production). The 3rd GP will be difficult. The easiest option is to take the free merchant at Economics ... The cost is 2 turns of 100% research after Oxford is online, so in terms of saving the 2 revolt turns it is a wash. So let's say I target 30 turns for the GA when my artist/engineer pops. I'll need 12 turns to build West Point, but could probably shave that down to about 8-10 turns by overflow cascade (although it will be difficult to cascade overflow off units with Heroic Epic already constructed, and I'd hate to overflow off buildings that will be irrelevant to military unit construction). In any case, as long as Military Tradition is completed about 15-20 turns from now I'll have time to build West Point before the GA. In that case I have time to wait for Oxford to complete. Another 8 turns of saving gold will allow me to run 100% research through the remaining 20 turns up to the GA. 20 turns of research at 950 bpt (1200 modified bpt assuming 26% arrow + 1 ktb) = 24,000 total beakers ... enough for Philosophy, Nationalism, Military Tradition, Economics, Gunpowder, Chemistry, Steel, Military Science.
My demographics will essentially stagnate at current levels, except for Oxford and the GNP spike when I turn research back on. ETA T165 to begin 1-turning commando-capable Maces AND be able to upgrade to Grenadiers. I'll want Astronomy for galleons soon afterwards because I have to promote the maces before I upgrade them, and ideally I'd like to hide the commando-promoted units out of sight on ship. T200 is probably a realistic timeframe where I'd be ready to launch a first strike with 25 commando units. Until then I need to maintain the world balance of power such that nobody gets too far ahead as to be untouchable, and also make myself sufficiently unappetizing for a dogpile.
June 30th, 2021, 20:22
(This post was last modified: June 30th, 2021, 20:23 by Cornflakes.)
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With OH mass building Cuirassier, and Pindicator mobilizing his knight stack I finally put into motion a plan that I have been hatching for dozens of turns. TBS's Heroic Epic city has been an eyesore that is culturally pressuring my border. Razing it would clear enough culture for me to replant a city on my side of that lake (2N of TBS's current city):
TBS has been under-defending his valuable border/Heroic Epic city for the last 30 turns. I have been dreaming of razing it to clear up the border pressure and provide some buffer to my own valuable border city. Therefore as I had spare worker turns I have been pre-building forts on the 3 marked tiles. I have my 5 move galley staged in the small lake which can duck through the RED fort and carry 2 amphibious maces. In the east I have a 2-move galley that can duck through the Orange and Yellow forts with 2 more amphibious maces. But wait ... the east galley needs 3 moves to transport the amphibious maces into range ...
Extensive Worldbuilder testing (which I first did about 5 years ago) showed that pillaging a fort teleports any naval units inside to the water tile 1SW!
I start with the northern 5-move galley. If I roll poorly against the longbow and knight I can abort and offer peace without revealing the surprise fort-pillage-teleportation. I have 23% chance of outright victory against TBS's unpromoted longbow, and worldbuilder simming showed that about 50% of the time the longbow survived at 2.8/6 for a near-90% chance with the 2nd attacker. 30% of the time it survived with 3.6/6.
Bingo! Rolled good enough! Now need to win the combat vs. the knight and I'll have the final 2 maces to clean up the longbow and then 99% on the spear.
C2/Amphibious Maceman vs. Knight 73% ... WIN 
That was by no means a sure victory, but I'll take a 73% chance any day to raze such a valuable and annoying city. Now for the surprise tactics with the fort pillage to get my cleanup maces in range ...
   
Teleportation is a fickle mechanic, and if you read the fine print it clearly sates that past performance in no guarantee of future returns, and your results may vary. Side effects include nuking your neighbor relationship or zero gains, loss of units, and embarrassment.
In a sim with the culture and lake situation specific to this attack scenario my galley always teleported 1SW. In all my worldbuilder testing I never saw a teleportation to any water tile that wasn't adjacent to the fort. Yet somehow the game thinks that the water tile 2E is a better target for teleportation than the tile 1SW 
Oh well, I offered 10T enforced peace which TBS accepted right away. TBS then offered OB and resumption of luxury trades. I accepted both so we're back to "Best Bud" status  TBS now has one secure border and 2 massive armies from OH and Pindicator converging on him from both sides. May there be lots off bloodshed, cities razed, little net progress, and much unit maintenance and supply costs on all sides 
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This could be due to normal teleport mechanics. Though I'm not sure if they work differently in war time.
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In your sims, was the teleport target under enemy culture? The game really dislikes teleporting you onto a tile controlled by someone else.
It would have been great to see this work though!
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