[spoilers] Pindicator's Diplomacy thread for France

[pindicator]

So I can't really remember the rules of the game too well. Apparently I played in a game of Diplomacy on these forums years ago but I couldn't tell you anything about it. Going to spend today brushing up on rules and strategy and then we'll come up with something. I guess I'm lucky that I picked up France, as they're considered one of the easier nations to play.

I've exchanged a few opening pleasantries with Cyneheard (Italy) and Naufrager (Austria). Really need to talk to England, Germany, and Russia though.

Would appreciate any references to general diplomacy strategy that lurkers may know about. Hopefully we can make something of it.

[T-hawk]

Here's one site with some decent info: https://www.playdiplomacy.com/help.php?s...ayer_Guide

[pindicator]

Some Initial Thoughts...

England and Germany are both asking for an alliance with me against the other. I'm sure they're also talking about teaming up together against me, that's just the game.

Of the two, klops (Germany) is giving the more detail and I would slightly prefer the FG alliance anyway. (Germany can go east after England is gone, whereas England really can only go through me - or rather they can more easily stab me due to where their cores are. Also, if I do get a chance to go for any kind of solo win, then it will be easier to take England's cores now when things are murky rather than later.) He's asked for a bounce in Burgundy, which initially I talked him out of but then realized it was in my interest to do so - so the bounce is back on. I ended up telling klops my initial planned orders to gain a bit more trust with him, and also because I wanted to hear where he would go. He did ask me to send my fleet into the channel straight away, but I told him England had already asked for a DMZ which I had agreed to. However, I did not get the information from him that I was hoping for: he says he thinks he'll send his fleet to Den, which means his army is coming to Kie. I've read that's a neutral opening for Germany and that lines up with what I'm reading from klops: he's floating ideas, making neutral moves, and seeing how things play out before he'll commit.

England did actually ask me to DMZ the channel, which I happily agreed to. So he'll have to send his fleets to NTH and NWG, otherwise it will be very apparent who the odd one out is and I'll have to play defensively. We didn't share any other moves except I told him I would send my fleet to MAO and stay out of the channel.

As for the other powers, it's been very little. Cyneheard and I chatted a brief bit and agreed to DMZ the Mediterranean and Piedmont. I've been trying to figure out how to suggest to him to move into Tyr but he may very well do that on his own anyway. Austria and Turkey both gave me an initial pleasantry and then nothing - I guess they aren't interested in what is happening in the west. Scooter has been a little more chatty, but only concerning his northern fleet and what it might do.

If I had to guess, right now I would expect the following from the west:

GERMANY:
A Mun Bur
A Ber Kie
F Kie Den

ENGLAND:
A Lvp Yor (or Edi I suppose)
F Lon NTH
F Edi NWG

MYSELF:
A Par Pic
A Mar Bur
F Bre MAO

Which would be great for me as long as Italy stays out of Pie, as I would be guaranteed 2 new cores and have a chance at a 3rd in Bel.

Trying to avoid going over "what if" scenarios so soon. If I'm lied to then I know I'm at war, plain and simple.

[pindicator]

Spring '01




I feel really good about how the turn played out.  Everybody in the west stayed true to their word and did the expected moves based on our conversations.  All these moves are also non-committal so it's still up in the air to see who ends up going which direction.  For instance, you could see England take Norway and bounce me in Belgium to try and keep me down a center.

Speaking of me, I'm set up to potentially get 3 centers in the fall.  Marseilles is free to move into Spain, my fleet in the Mid-Atlantic will take Portugal, and I have a very good chance that I move into Belgium unopposed.  England was the one saying he would give me Belgium so who am I to tell him no to that now?  Germany will certainly try to change his mind.

It will be interesting to see how England takes Norway next turn.  I would expect the fleet in NWG to do it, and then potentially the army is attempted to be shuttled to Bel or Hol and he hopes for the low odds that either of them will be empty.  Germany almost certainly sends his army on to Hol, but does he try to keep Russia out of Swe?  The big question on my end is what does he do with the Munich army?  I would bet it moves into Ruh and then he gets 2 builds.

I don't know enough about the game to say how Russia, Austria, and Turkey are aligned based on their moves.  Black Sea bounce is pretty standard from what I've seen.  Austria getting 2 of its 3 moves bounced can't feel good - I think maybe it would have been better to move their fleet south?  But their poke into Italy makes me feel more secure in the south as Cyneheard has to deal with an antagonistic Naufrager and so I shouldn't be harassed at all in the south.  I wonder if Naufrager will support Turkey into Romania next turn?  Otherwise Russia will certainly take it - that kind of move would go a long way showing how the alliances have shaken out in the east.

In any case, I'm not going to put my moves in for a day, but it's going to take a lot to get me away from the following:

F Mao Por
A Mar Spa
A Pic Bel

[pindicator]

England throwing me some major red flags right now.  I've italicized the important parts:

Adrien - England
All seems to be going well. I'll block Germany from getting Hol this fall, and you'll get Belgium + Spain or Portugal. They'll probably have to build in Berlin in the winter which is ideal for us as it's so far from our front.
Actually I just realized you had an opportunity to get 3 centers this year if you move Mar-Spa.

pindicator - France
Yeah, I thought I'd just be keeping Germany out of Belgium but is bouncing in Bur means it's available. Have to decide if it's worth risking him getting into Bur though
Honestly I'll probably go for it

Adrien - England
Only issue with you letting Germany enter Bur is that they'll be able to build in Munich instead of Berlin, which is closer to the front

pindicator - France
Yeah, now I'm second guessing it
trying to think ahead a bit to Spring 02.  If Germany goes to Bur then I can support you into Hol.  If they move to Ruh then I'd have to get to Bur myself in thie spring and then support you in the fall

Adrien - England
Actually there's a possibility where we can't take Hol in 1902 : if you let Germany in Bur this year, Bur can cut your support from Bel in spring (creating a tie between the Kiel army and mine in Hol), and even if you've pushed them out of Bur they can still fall back to Ruh and block your Belgian support in the fall. Which would push my conquest of Hol to 1903

pindicator - France
So you would also need to get into HEL in Spring 02 to get Hol in the fall

Adrien - England
The Denmark fleet can theoretically prevent that, even though you're right that would likely work

1)  You're telling me that you only now are realizing that I can take 3 centers this turn?  When you told me I could take Bel and I told you I was moving my fleet to MAO, you're now suddenly surprised that I can also take Spa from Marseilles?  Really!

2)  There's no positive suggestions here, it's all reasons why it will fail.  There's no suggestions for alternative ideas, like he's trying to lay the groundwork for why next season he can say "Oh no, we guessed wrong.  See, I told you it wouldn't work."  Not encouraging that his head is looking for reasons for it to fail rather than ways for it to succeed!

Then I just got this from klops while I was writing this post up:

klops - Germany
Do we have an agreement to ally vs England?  This fall, its rather easy for you because you can go with Por, Spa, Bel either way. I have to choose if I want to block Russia in Sweden. I would probably do this, if I would side with England.
Officially, I am not decided about Swe yet, but I'm telling you, I let Russia in for two reasons. Make good terms on the eastern side and potentially/likely one center less for England in 1902.
We can deal with scandinavia later

pindicator - France
Yes, I am on board
I'm going to expect to be bounced in Bel but it still denies him a center

I really would have preferred to work with England, I have to say.  Because I feel like it's the riskier play and allows for an exciting stab into the north atlantic later on.  Riskier because he more likely to stab me and can more easily stab me than Germany would be able to.

Cyneheard then added:

Cyneheard - Italy
I do not think it would be wise for you to get Belgium

pindicator - France
Germany's going into Bur?

Cyneheard - Italy
"create tall poppy syndrome" was my more direct concern, but they very well could be

Then I finally asked Adrien point blank if we should bounce in Belgium:

pindicator - France
do you prefer we bounce in Bel or is there another path?  If we bounce it doesn't deny Germany a build in winter so they'd be getting 2 and almost certainly be adding a fleet.

Adrien - England
I think the best outcome for me there is if you go Mar-Bur, Pic-Bel, while I deny them Hol, so next year we can surround Holland and take it. They'll have only one build which will be best

pindicator - France
ok, i don't mind delaying the Spa center

Adrien - England
Great !

Except the more I think about it the more I do mind.  Anyway, I'm throwing in with klops to start so I'm going to try for all 3 centers and we'll just have to see how that goes.

[T-hawk]

This is entertaining to watch - the thing with the lurkers is that we see what everyone is saying to each other, but we don't know what of it is BS or what anyone's true intentions are...

[pindicator]

I hope it's entertaining!  One thing I'm worried about is people not getting into the backstabbing spirit of the game and holding grudges.  We'll see how flexible people are for the sake of a chaotic game.

Fall 1901




Now the game gets interesting!

I was really thinking England was going to bounce me in Bel, but now I feel a little bad that I didn't believe him.  And he was right there at the move resolution asking me what the hell.  But yikes, I feel like England had a bit of an overreaction and I had to talk him down from the ledge. I'm going to avoid linking to individual chats, because there's just too many going on right now. England builds a fleet in London because of course he does.

Russia-German alliance!  I really should have thought about that possibility more.  And really, with both of them pushing the Adrien seems untrustworthy line I should have seen that similarity - got too caught up in the fact that I also didn't find him trustworthy In any case, I really need to rethink working with Germany.  I can hold him off with 3 armies - as long as I have the advantage at sea.  If he and Russia can team up and beat me in the ocean then I'm in trouble.  Further, I need to think about my builds more now.  Even though I'm getting 3 builds ... maybe I don't want to build 2 fleets because 1) i may need England on my side and 2) maybe I'm going to need the armies to defend! I would want the advantage at sea, but I would also not want to piss off England unless I'm going to really stab him.

Now, I did ask Germany not to bounce Russia in Sweden, but I'm a bit more worried about his move signaling support. I actually believe what I said to Adrien: Fleet in StP and army in Mun look to be the most obvious. Especially with Italy in Tyrol. As I'm writing this, Germany has now told me they have to build an army in Munich. I asked how they weren't worried about English fleets taking Scandinavia and haven't gotten a response. (I haven't added that they can easily defend Tyrol from Berlin...)

Moving on to Russia: we have a JUGGERNAUT sighting! Yikes, Turkey doesn't take the Black Sea, Russia moves his fleet out of StP. And Russia gets to 6 centers as well: Army in Moscow & Fleet in St Pete nc for them. Is it a full Russia-Austria-Turkey? That's not going to go well for Austria: you have Turkish armies marching straight towards you, and Russian armies on your border that you can't really stop now. I sent Naufrager & Cyneheard a couple messages, trying to broker a peace there. Nauf has to see that Turkey is just going to take everything from him with those armies, and Russia probably can jump in whenever they feel like. Anyway, I think if we see two new fleets from Turkey then it's 100% a Juggernaut.

Naufrager is too hot-headed for this - I hope to be proven wrong. He and Cyneheard have been at each other for the first two rounds accomplishing nothing, and I worry that Nauf will just let himself be taken over by Russia and Turkey rather than give any concession to Cyneheard. I'm trying to talk to both of them about brokering a peace. Suppose I should try to get Turkey to stab Russia as well, but not quite yet. Austria only has Bud open to put his new army in, but I worry he collapses fast.

Italy told me not to build a fleet in Mar. I said that I might have to build an Army with Germany's moves. But that if I did decide to build a fleet in Mar it would be to only go into Spa and that i would give him heads up first. I mean that too, I dont' want to stab Italy. I just need to decide if I stab England or Germany... I'd normally sit back but do I have time to do that if the Juggernaut just gobbles up the east? Fleet in Naples for Italy.

Going to have to think about builds here. So far I've been trying to rally people against the threat from the east, but I need to figure out the north. If I make obvious moves against Germany, that's going to play into driving him towards Russia. However, if he and Russia are already tight (and Germany not even considering a fleet in our chat going on right now tells me that they are very much a thing), then fighting England may just be playing into their plan. No, I need to figure out what is stronger for me.

Or more likely: just take a guess and go in on it.

[pindicator]

Chatting with Russia made me realize that Kie is blocked from making a fleet, so of course Germany has to build an army in Mun - a fleet in Ber is just too slow.  I wrote all this out to Germany just now, it's my honest take on the situation (even if the part about Italy is only half-true):

pindicator - France
potential problem:  Italy told me he expects an Army in Mar or he'll see me as hostile.  Considering I'm trying to convince him and austria to make peace and team up against the RT juggernaut, I'm not sure how to go about this.
Is there a world where you are comfortable with an amry in Mar?  Could even be some elaborate ruse where I shuffle my fleets into NAO and MAO by fall to convoy an army up north.
But I would need your explicit ok for that
My big worry is RT just eats Austria right now.  They can probably force their way to Galicia and Greece right away.  And because Austria is naufrager and naufrager does not let perceived slights go easily I don't have a lot of faith on him and Italy working out a truce (even though I'm trying to get them to do that).
so if I threaten you and you go to Russia for help ... that just helps the juggernaut

[pindicator]

Winter 1901




Kicking myself a bit for missing an opportunity to go in against Germany. I was convinced he would build in Munich and instead we have a fleet in Berlin? So if i had gone with an army in Mar then I would have had an opportunity to push through against Germany. Well this has to signal FG to everyone - but also FGR because why not an army in Berlin?

Woke up to this from England.  I'm just about done trying to work with Adrien.  It's always negative with him and there's hardly any plan apart from "Germany bad". I've done almost exactly what he's said (minus grabbing that core center in Spa - which, come on  ) and somehow it's my fault he's on 4 centers right now.  Last night I was thinking "maybe he if can hold in the north then I can try to hold against Germany on land and send 3 fleets into the Med, then as soon as I gain a center we give Belgium to England.  Honest, I might still try to pitch that to him because Nauf is not going to work with Cyneheard ever and if I come in as Nauf's savior then I'm pretty sure he will just go against Russia & Turkey.

Instead, this is how the exchange with Adrien went...

Adrien - England
Oh yes, I'm kind of toast in the north, which means the absence of support in Bur to help me gain Hol is a big deal
Do we agree that you're not building a fleet in Bre ?

pindicator -
If you're really toast in the north then I absolutely need to build fleets. Where do you think they go next?
I can't push through Germany on land without help. There are only so many spots for armies to go
I don't get how sure you sound that you're losing. Aren't you talking to Russia? Or are they completely blowing you off?

Adrien - England
Yeah there's a chance Russia doesn't attack me
if you build a fleet in Brest I'm dead
there's nowhere for it to go but towards me
you can build a fleet in Marseille if you want

pindicator -
Yeah, this sounds like what Italy was just telling me...

Adrien - England
To be clear I'm negociating with them to not build in StP nc or StP army

pindicator -
Glad to hear. And even if they do it's not the end of the world, can always try to convince them to attack Germany

Adrien - England
If you build a fleet in Bre I'm going to have to focus on home defense, which is exactly what Germany wants
Italy isn't helping you against other neighbors, I've been consistently doing that. Your choice man

pindicator -
I dunno what to say. I've been understanding of you acting in your best interest. No problem with fleet in London and it's just as far from the channel as Brest
I don't see how we make progress entirely on land. If you need help by sea, then perhaps there's a fleet for you. Or maybe I go try Italy if he isn't going to help stop the Juggernaut

Adrien - England
I'll have 3 fleets whatever happens (even if 1902 goes badly I'll just destroy my army). I don't want your fleet in the channel threatening London every turn. You convinced me to move my army out of Edi so I could build there instead of London and I did, because I think it's best if we don't have a backstab opportunity every single turn, that way we can generally trust each other
I could have bounced you in Belgium instead of Germany in Hol, but didn't : it's literally not just "acting in my best interest" but taking your side so we can work together
people have been complaining about how pro-french my moves were
so I'm pretty stunned that you're considering moves that directly threaten me

pindicator -
ok, we'll just see how we sit in the spring i guess

Decided to pitch my Italy idea to England anyway. We'll see what he says. We'll see if I feel like I can trust and work with him ... because to be honest, I'm not really sure I can work with him. Obviously I can trust him, he's been making pro-France moves like mad. Fleet in Edi is actually probably needed to be able to retake Nwy after he loses it to Russia in the spring. He says "sending my fleet into the Med seems great"

...That's it?

And everyone is telling me how awkward the conversations with him are. So I dunno, I'm going to have to stab someone in the spring now. And truth be told, it's 60-40 that I stab England solely based on how difficult he's been to work with. But wow, Italy building a fleet in Venice really means I have an opportunity to stab Italy here ... as long as I believe my northern flank is safe.


What else do we have:
Turkey builds an army and a fleet - maybe not so much a Juggernaut as we first thought? I would have expected 2 fleets in that case.
Austria and Russia do the expected builds

Overall this looks bad for England, unless he can convince one of russia or germany to help him out.

[pindicator]

Spring 1902

Lurkers, and players reading after the game was over, I honestly agonized over this one for a long time:




Despite what the moves show, I really don't like the idea of betraying anyone - which is a little hard in a game like this.  But I've been promising things to all my neighbors and here I had to make a choice.  I didn't input my orders until going to bed the night before, and even then I kept trying to look at other options.  My options, starting with what I didn't do:

Do Nothing -
F Bre-MAO, F Mar-Spa sc, F Por Holds
A Bel Holds, A Spa-Gas, A Par Holds or goes to Bur
Honestly, this was the most tempting to me.  Move my fleets to MAO and Spa SC, keep the fleet in Portugal, and just put off the idea of stabbing someone for another season.  The problem is that I end up annoying everyone because I'm not honoring a commitment to anyone.

Attack Germany -
A Bel Supports English A Yor-Hol, A Par-Bur, A Spa-Gas
Fleets do something passive
Adrien, if you read this after, I started this game wanting to work with England more than work with Germany.  But we just aren't meshing and it's been really difficult to communicate.  For example, when I started the press in this phase the first thing I did was try to brainstorm scenarios about England defends in the north and ran that by England - only to get crickets in response.  I offered to support A Yor into Hol, because that would absolutely cripple Germany's movement, leaving that fleet in Berlin stuck away from the action.  But it just feels like we aren't ever on the same page.  Final straw was hearing that Russia was going to help him get into the north - so I went to Russia and asked what it looks like if England gets taken off the board:  Russia wants Nwy and Edi.  And I really don't want Russia to get strong in the north.

Now I realize this has turned into defending the action I took over exploring the one I didn't take.  Really, another big part why I didn't go this way was my choice to build fleet in Mar.  If that had been an army I would have been more inclined to tough it out for another year with England.  Especially because I know nobody else wants to work with him!

Attack Italy -
F Mar-LYO, F Por-Spa sc, F Bre-MAO
A Spa-Mar, A Par-Bur, A Bel Holds
I really wanted to do this one.  It would have been so much fun for the lurkers too, I'm sure.  I was going to bank on Austria-Italy loggerheads in the east to give me time to move up.  Then I could convoy the Marseilles Army into Tuscany in the fall and move up into WES and Naf.  I would have gotten Tunis in 03 and potentially more- but I have to think Cyneheard would be recruiting help by then.  And I'm not sure how much of Italy-Austria is really antagonistic and how much is for show.  For instance, that fleet in Venice really is something:  yes, it's on the border with Austria, but it's also a fleet so it can't do a lot to threaten Austria beyond Trieste.  I suspect it's a bit of a peace offering between the two and we will see Italy and Austria start to work together more.  Fall moves might show that out:  I won't be surprised if Italy helps Austria take Serbia from Turkey in the fall.

In the end I'm very happy I didn't take this route because I was counting on the Venice fleet being bogged down and not getting into the Adriatic sea.  But if I had gone for hte stab here  Italy would be able to get into TYS and ION in the fall and my attack would be very slow.  Then I'm suddenly very trusting of England and Germany both to not backstab me.

Attack England -
Which is what I was left with.  From England's moves last year I was sure they wouldn't move against me, but now I'm not sure what happens.  He has really good pressure on Germany, but truly I have a much surer thing in convoying Pic to Wales or London and moving into the Irish sea in the fall than in pressuring Germany.  (Although now I see I'm not nearly devious enough:  I could have done exactly what I did in diplomacy and then bounced Germany in Holand or slipped into Ruhr and then been in a great position to take a core against him.

I suppose in the end is that I really don't want Russia getting a foothold, and I feel like England has to go for Russia's help either way.  Perhaps I'm forcing him to Russia now with these moves and I've played it wrong.  Perhaps I'll find a different plan and back off in the fall.

The Juggernaut Looms
Another factor is the RT alliance in the east. Attacking Italy now will make it easier for RT to make gains in the east. Attacking Germany will drive them to help Russia, which I see as less favorable. I see England as falling apart faster than Germany due to a stab and so that impacted my choice as well. In the fall I have a 50/50 to land my army and I definitely get to Irish sea. Then I can probably get a couple centers off him in 03.

From what I know with R-E, England told me Russia said they would help them take Den in exchange for England giving up Nor. Was Russia supposed to help England into SKA this turn? Seems like they should have in that case. But Russia was very passive in the north and that might give us more time to move against him in the end.