Gobble, gobble, comrades - Sultan Chev steers Turkey

[T-hawk]

I've been very much wondering what your intentions are about whether and when to stab, thanks for that, even if it's not exactly conclusive

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Yeah, after yesterday's lengthy exchange with scooter, with both of us concluding not to stab, followed by entreaties from France & Italy to please stab him now, I thought it'd be important to the lurkers to clarify what's going on in my head, since that doesn't appear anywhere in the exchanges. 

Short answer: I WILL stab to prevent a solo, but not yet.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Once again, the real action is on the Discord where scooter and I are, I think both sincerely, trying to hammer out a lasting peace between us, without to my mind breaking the spirit of the game by either handing Russia the win or already accepting a two-way draw - I always feel like you should try to win as long as it's a plausible outcome, and only draw if [i]forced[/it] to it.

So the tactics don't matter so much going forward, especially as we should start to see growing force & position imbalances arise. Thus my plans for spring 1903 are straightforward and aggressive:



a. 1st Army in Serbia is to attack Trieste. This attack may be supported by the Russians in Budapest, in which case it has a fair chance of succeeding against most Italian moves (NOT if Venice supports Trieste, though). If successful it also sets Russia up to capture Vienna in the fall. 
b. 3rd Army in Greece is to follow up to Serbia. This opens up Greece to the Italian fleet in ION, which could even retreat there, but that's fine. Greece is surrounded by my units and will be trivial to recapture, while the fleet retreating to Greece instead of Tyrr leaves it out of position to defend Italy's heartland. 
c. 2nd Army is to defend Constantinople in conjunction with 3rd Fleet defending from Ankara - this will keep Scooter out of Constantinople to prevent funny business but keep the space clear to build on, and keep my army from moving away from the front in Bulgaria. 
d. 2nd Fleet from EAS is to seize sea control of the Ionian Sea, supported by 1st Fleet from the Aegean. The Ionian is the key space on the board for Italy - capture it, and not only are Tunis & Naples directly threatened, you can also land an army in Apulia, you can steam into the Tyrrhenian and threaten Rome/Naples/Tunis, and you can block all attempts to move towards the Balkans by powers in the Western Med, whoever that may be. So this is the single most important move of the turn. If the Italian fleet in the Adriatic supports the Ionian fleet, it will fail - UNLESS Nauf keeps his word and attacks the Adriatic himself from Albania, breaking that support, in which case it succeeds and Italy is dead, albeit still breathing for a few seasons. So Nauf holds Italy's fate in his hands. 

Like I said, nothing fancy here. Fall options depend on Italy's moves in the spring (and scooter's - much depends on his honesty now), but possibilities include seizing Tunis or Naples, landing my Bulgarian army in Apulia, or steaming into the Tyrrhenian.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Spring 1903 moves are in. Let's start in the East:


The good news is Scooter & Nauf cooperate, as Scooter moves away from my borders on all sides and carries out the support as ordered. The downside is Cyneheard surprises, making no move towards Vienna at all, instead opting to wipe out the Austrian fleet sheltering along Albania's rugged coastline. Then Tyrolia supports Venice to Trieste, which I did not foresee - I thought one of the two units would certainly move towards Vienna, enabling the attack on Trieste to succeed. Ah, well. Scooter has 3 units adjacent to Vienna now to Italy's one, as Venice bounces off my Serbian army. More importantly, he loses the Ionian (not pictured, but he retreated to the Tyrrhenian Sea, sensibly). The other downside to the turn is Germany correctly sniffed out scooter's attack on Silesia and defends it with his two units, though I note he bounced himself - not sure of Russian hostility, and unwilling to provoke it himself by violating a DMZ? Probable. 

In the west:


Here, Adrien turtles up, though he can hold neither London nor Liverpool this turn. Hopefully Scooter offers some support, an English puppet would go far to help us. Otherwise pin is fairly passive - he moves up to seize Liverpool, supports Germany to the north sea, and keeps his armies mostly idle, though the move to Marseilles is trouble since he'll be on the front in the east soon enough. 

On the whole, probably our worst turn so far. The most important move, to take Ionian, succeeded, and will enable me to break Italy's back in 1904 and 1905. But we're stalled in Central Europe, until more Russian armies can come up. Focusing on securing the remainder of Austria is probably wisest, and seeing what scooter can do at sea - he has only 3 fleets against combined 5 Franco-German fleets, so will need England as a cat's paw to progress there. 

For my part, I need to decide between landing in Apulia or taking the Tyrrhenian myself. Trieste is probably out of reach this turn, with 4 of Italy's 5 units now bordering it.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Well, drat. Good news and bad news.


In the south, I take the obvious odds-on play and go for Tunis with my fleet. There was the possibility of convoying an army to Naples, which if successful would have also cost Italy a center and placed land units directly adjacent to Rome, even as I threatened Tunis & TYS still from my fleet. I figured Cyne had to honor that threat and he did cover, though he claims to have tossed a coin. I duly take Tunis and will force an Italian disband (probably that northern army), while taking Albania to place Trieste under serious pressure. 

Foolishly, though, I failed to convoy, instead using my fleet to take the center. THat means I gave up the precious ION space as the Adriatic fleet bounces my follow-up, duh. Dummy. Now I have to earn it back, and I expect France will be building a fleet to reinforce Italy. That means I'll need my fleet in Ankara, turning a dangerous flank to scooter in order to muster 4 fleets to 3 enemies. I can expect Trieste soon, but a land invasion of Italy is very difficult, as just two units can stop any attacks on Venice. I MUST have the Ionian at least. 

Further north, Scooter takes Vienna, but Germany takes Silesia, so he'll probably need another army or perhaps another fleet in the north. Germany can stand up Scooter for a while, so we need to break Italy as rapidly as we can. My mistake looms large!

Germany also took the Baltic, threatening Sweden or even St. Petersburg, but at least France largely stood passive - he failed again to land in Wales, though he did take Liverpool to undermine England. Like I said, I expect that unit to appear on my front. We really do need England on our side, desperately - if so I think Scooter can stall in the Atlantic long enough for us to compress Italy to the peninsula, and then batter down Germany.

We might end up in a 4-way draw, though, at the moment.

[Qgqqqqq]

Thanks for the update - appreciate the explanation.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Sorry, everyone, been on the road the last week since school got out and I've been negligent in my reporting. 

Anyway, the major stuff is on Discord, but here's a summary:

Tactics: Not much of interest. I captured Tunis, but in so doing as noted lost the Ionian sea. It took most of 1904 to get a grip on the sea again. That once again opens sea access to the Italian peninsula, however, the French have sailed a fleet to support Italy. That pits 3 enemy fleets against only two Turks at the tip of the spear, Tunis, meaning if Cyneheard wants it, it's his. That may give me an opportunity, however.

In the Balkans, Italy evacuated Trieste and disbanded their northern army in the Tyrol region. A single army guards the gates of Italy at Venice, setting up another guessing game - I need to move where Italy is NOT in order to progress, either Tyrolia (letting me bring up a second army and take Venice with both in the fall of 1905) or slipping past him to Venice if he moves to Tyrolia. How will Cyneheard defend?

At the moment, then, here's how I'm aiming for 1905:


I guess he sits tight in Venice, once again honoring the threat that I can just walk into the city if he moves out. I might also be able to talk Scooter into supporting the move there, which would work if Germany doesn't interfere. Albania and Serbia act in reserve to fill up Trieste. 

At sea, France and Italy can launch a combined attack on Tunis, but, critically, it only works if he cuts ION's support for the territory- and THAT means that Naples will be left open. So, I'll move my Constantinople army all the way across the sea and drop it in Italy's lap. If Italy instead covers Naples, then this won't work, but that means Tunis should hold...unless they attack it in the dumbest possible way, a sinlge supported attack and hoping I won't support it. Which, they might, predicting that I'll predict their attack and so won't bother with the support because it'd be pointless - agh! That way lies madness! 

This places a lot of trust on Scooter, especially sailing away from Ank, so probably EAS will move to Smyrna this round in order to move to Con in the fall, which will let me cover ANK if Sev gets frisky.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Diplomatically: Italy and Germany are mostly French vassals, England seems to be Scooters' although he stabbed him for a build. France is pleading with me to stab Russia, but I can't do that as long as Italy remains a thorn in my side - to do so while Cyneheard lives is simply to move towards a 4 or 5-way draw (depending on Germany). That'd be dumb, so I'll tell pin nothing will happen while Italy lives. If he wants help against Russia, help me bust Cyneheard's last defenses more quickly.

I will not help Russia solo, but I also will not break the alliance before need. We've gotten this far by being honest, let's see how fair honesty & fair dealings can carry us.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Let's get caught up on 1905.


For me, the spring of 1905 was a mixed bag. The positives: As I expected, France and Italy combined to force their way into Tunis. Why is this a positive? Well, because I knew that to do that it would commit the Italian fleet anchored at Bari to one goal: Cutting Ionian's support for a Tunis hold. That, in turn, meant no unit was available to cover Naples. So, I ordered a long convoy to leapfrog my rear army to Naples, which if successful would more than compensate the loss of the center at Tunis - I'd gain Naples instead and be MUCH more favorably positioned to invade Italy. If it didn't work, well, worst case I lost a phase, but if it didn't work that was probably because Italy wasn't attacking Tunis after all and so no harm done. 

Sadly, the move to Tyrolia with Russian support didn't work, due to German interference. I had a guessing game here - Italy needed to keep me out of Tyrolia to prevent a supported attack on Venice, BUT if he moved to Tyrolia and I instead straightforwardly attacked Venice, then I'd just take the center and he'd be out of luck. Cyneheard won this coin toss and my armies in the Balkans bounced with no gain. 

Scooter's turn was also a mixed bag. Two of his units covered a potential stab of Rumania, and a third assisted the attack on Tyrolia. In the north, he successfully occupied Berlin, but either accidentally-on-purpose or actually accidentally ordered an illegal move from Skaggerack to the Baltic, when the straightforward attack on Copenhagen would have just succeeded! That snafu halted his Norwegian and St. Petersburg fleets as well. 

Meanwhile, France stabbed Germany, taking Holland and cutting Kiel's support for a move to Denmark, hence enabling scooter's fumbled attack. England helped France occupy the North Sea, placing Edinburgh and Norway under severe stress as a final French fleet sailed into Norwegian waters. That gave scooter a very volatile situation, with 3 German units bordering his 2 in Berlin, Sweden theoretically vulnerable, and either of Norway or Edinburgh unstable (oh, and nothing between the Germans and Warsaw, though they'd need a phase to march).

Fall 1905:

For me, a better turn. 

The occupation of Rome meant that Cyneheard had another move basically forced - if he did nothing, I could march north to Rome and follow on behind to Naples, taking two centers instead of one. There was also a repeat of the Venetian/Tyrolian guessing game up on top. Cyneheard COULD defend the move to Rome by moving down from Venice, or he could order the Apulian fleet to move to Naples, which would bounce any follow-up landings I tried. So, here, I tried to give myself two chances to succeed at a center by not moving to Rome and instead moving straight on Venice. See, the move to Rome fails in two possible worlds: a, Italy moved Apulia to Naples (as happened) or b, Italy moves Venice to Rome. But the move to Venice succeeds in two worlds - where Italy moves to Rome, or where Italy moves to Tyrolia. So by not moving to Rome I allowed for the possibility of the Venetian army vacating the space. As it happens, that didn't matter, he moved to Tyrolia instead - and this time I won the coin toss and moved into Venice.

My other moves - I moved to MAO to gain leverage on pindicator, who stubbornly supported Italy in Tunis. I knew an attack would be futile so didn't bother, instead I moved to Adriatic to set myself up to force Venice in case I lost there again. I also waffled - trusting scooter, then not trusting him - with my back line fleets. The MAO move didn't work out as well as I hoped when Pindicator stabbed England and Germany simultaneously, taking London (suicide by Adrien? A stab?), Holland, and Kiel all at once. So he'd build in all his vulnerable centers, darn. Still, the move worked, as it got Pin and I talking (more on the diplomacy of 1905 later). 

Scooter continued to defend himself, and thanks to Pindicator his fall went enormously better than it had any right to. The attack on Berlin failed after Germany guessed wrong between Munich and Kiel (Munich should have supported Kiel moving, not the other way around). He took Denmark because Germany was more focused on Berlin. And France backed off Edinburgh, taking London instead. So instead of holding steady for the turn scooter took two centers, Denmark and Berlin. 

1905's diplomacy:
I confess, as you can tell from my lack of updates, I was unfocused this week. I tried to stay in touch with scooter and with pin, both to maintain the alliance and to see what possibilities there were with France. The only way I prevent scooter from soloing is if France doesn't let him. I need pin not to throw the game to either of us until we can reach a 17-17 draw. But I gave neither forum the time nor attention it deserved, so I sent very little press at all. I might have taken Tunis a season earlier had I done so, but pin thought there was nothing to be gained there and so continued to prop Italy, while scooter was probably eyeing my juicy Anatolian and Balkan centers while I didn't talk a lot. Let me emphasize: Not talking is no way to play a game of Diplomacy! Don't do like I did!

Anyway, my goal is still to reach the smallest win possible - a solo, or a draw, or a 3-way draw if neither of the first is on the table. I think 17-17 is still dimly reachable, but it's tricky. Scooter is getting very close, and will just need to win a few guessing games. Plus, as France shrinks, pin will be tempted to play kingmaker. So I really have a tricky tightrope to walk, if I don't just join with pin to pressure scooter into a 3-way draw. 

So:
a)I join with pin and take a 3-way draw, probably.
b)I try to walk the tightrope and fail - scooter wins.
c)I succeed in the tightrope and we have a two-way draw.

...d)I see an opening and stab for 18? Probably not happening.

Anyway, here's 1906:

I built an army to shore up the Balkans and moved my fleet once and for all to cover my home centers - I was naked for far too long here, and if I hadn't managed to build such a firm alliance with Russia I would have been dead. The other major development was France - I finally had some fruitful talks with pindicator after I gave him the time he deserved - still not enough but better than nothing - and withdrew from MAO to gain goodwill and take out Cyneheard's Italy. So, the move succeeded in its aim in the end. Scooter could have been mad about that, but didn't object. I need pin on side if I'm going to rein in Russia, even if I still plan to kill him in the end, if I can. Otherwise pin might have just played kingmaker to his favored opponent. So that was diplomatically necessary, I think, even if tactically a fleet in the Irish Sea would have been awesome. 

Italy's two remaining units were on opposite ends of the map and totally unable to do anything, so I walked into Rome and covered the Tyrrhenian and Ionian from the fleet in Tunis getting up to mischief. I also moved up to Tyrolia, although it weakens my Balkan garrison, to be able to influence matters in Germany. 

Scooter tried to move more to Germany, so I think I believe him when he said the moves to Galicia and Ukraine were preventative, not a stab - he could have tkaen the Black Sea had he wanted to stab and put me in a difficult (albeit not impossible) spot. At sea he moved powerfully towards the North Sea, threatening England and the Low Countries, and should be able to sweep up Kiel and Holland for 14 centers. Liverpool and London will take him to 16, and Belgium to 17, so I mustn't let him take Munich (18). Even then he'll just need one successful stab of me to win, so I need to be paranoid now. Most of my units will be tasked with anti-Russian defenses. 

I occupied 4 of France's units defending , and otherwise pin was passive. He really lost ground this phase, and is sounding demoralized in the chat. But also tells both me and scooter that he hates scooter and prefers that I win, so there's some good leverage there, maybe? 

Will take a solo if it's offered, but won't stab Russia to get it, and instead will try to walk the tightrope to keep things exciting!

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Oh, my orders and thoughts:



I gamble a bit that pin is telling the truth, since he could save Tunis this round by attacking Tyrrhenian. If all goes well, though, I'll actually occupy the western Med and Tunis, and be ready to move in strength on Marseilles & Iberia in 1907. Otherwise - 

Balkan armies try to move defensively, counting on fresh builds to make up the gap at Bulgaria. 

Trieste, with nothing better to do, supports Ukraine to Paris, while Rome supports Paris to Moscow, mostly for fun. Let Scooter and Pin read into that what they will!

Tyrolia, with nothing better to do, pokes at Munich. Who knows? Germany might unexpectedly move out somewhere - it's no fun to just sit and hold with your last unit.  Don't ask, don't get.