January 10th, 2025, 14:06
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I'm going essentially by the Colley Matrix. I haven't dived deeply into the math but the point is it doesn't care about poll inertia or conference identity. When you factor in everything that way, including not just SEC-B1G head to head but also every other point of comparison including results against other conferences, the bulk of the SEC comes out quite a bit ahead of the bulk of the B1G and everywhere else. The top teams are about the same (and we'll see tonight), but SEC teams in the 8-10 win range have a very strong argument for being better than 9-11 win teams from other conferences.
That said, "better" is a different argument than who goes to the playoff. I used to be a best-team supremacist for the playoff (agreed with most of the years that the SEC runner up made it over other conferences and with leaving out FSU last year), but with the 12 team format, really a team like Indiana or SMU or even Texas who beat barely anybody should get their shots over an Alabama or SCar who already had plenty. The big problem with the record-matters-more argument is that you discourage anyone from scheduling meaningful nonconference games, but that wasn't a factor this year, nobody got disqualified for an out-of-conference loss (as Alabama rightly wasn't last year.)
January 10th, 2025, 16:01
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(January 10th, 2025, 14:06)T-hawk Wrote: I'm going essentially by the Colley Matrix. I haven't dived deeply into the math but the point is it doesn't care about poll inertia or conference identity. When you factor in everything that way, including not just SEC-B1G head to head but also every other point of comparison including results against other conferences, the bulk of the SEC comes out quite a bit ahead of the bulk of the B1G and everywhere else. The top teams are about the same (and we'll see tonight), but SEC teams in the 8-10 win range have a very strong argument for being better than 9-11 win teams from other conferences.
I'm loosely familiar with Colley Matrix. It's a bit simplistic, but it does not really support your position. Here are the last two years.
https://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2023/...onf17.html
Last year the SEC is listed in 2nd place, and a Big Ten team won the national title.
https://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2024/...onf18.html
This year the SEC is showing higher, but at a pretty marginal lead, and it's got a losing record against the Big Ten. A win tonight would merely even the score. This is a fairly new trend and indicative of the changes in the sport happening right now.
Also, again, my position is not "lol sec sux" but that their undisputed dominance is nowhere near what it was a few years ago. They were in a tier alone for a very long time, but now that tier is two conferences. And when you start seeing articles like this, it tells you something about the way things are trending: https://www.outkick.com/sports/alabama-n...greg-byrne
January 10th, 2025, 17:07
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I'm talking about this year's rankings (week 18 before the semifinals.)
SEC teams are ranked 4, 6, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 33, 34.
B1G teams are ranked 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 14 ... 37, 38, 48, 52.
The tops are similar but the SEC has a lot more depth in the 20-30 range, and that makes a significant argument for the strength of everyone in that conference who has to play them. This is what gets called the tautology but it's real.
January 12th, 2025, 13:02
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(January 10th, 2025, 17:07)T-hawk Wrote: I'm talking about this year's rankings (week 18 before the semifinals.)
SEC teams are ranked 4, 6, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 33, 34.
B1G teams are ranked 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 14 ... 37, 38, 48, 52.
The tops are similar but the SEC has a lot more depth in the 20-30 range, and that makes a significant argument for the strength of everyone in that conference who has to play them. This is what gets called the tautology but it's real.
So 1st-6th of the B1G are ahead of 1st-6th of the SEC, and then it reverses for 7-10. And those tops are not similar.
If you're saying "34th over 52nd" matters more than "5th over 15th", I don't think that tracks.
January 13th, 2025, 09:07
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Yeah...if you give me 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 14 the SEC can have 4, 6, 15, 17, 18 and 20-30 and I'll still feel superior.
Darrell
January 16th, 2025, 12:11
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-to-north/
Another article spelling out what I'm referring to. The money potential from the major Big Ten programs simply dwarfs the southern schools. Remains to be seen if they are actually able to tap it as the article rightly points out that many aren't that interested or would rather donate that money towards academic pursuits. But it's not a random fluke that OSU had the clear best roster pre-season. They had a bunch of guys who should be in the NFL this year that they paid a ton of money to try one more time. Michigan did the same thing last year, and we saw the results of that.
I'll put it this way. My general prediction is assuming we don't see another huge realignment, the SEC will win roughly half of the national titles going forward. It's possible this will still be the best, but it would also represent a big drop from the 75% of them they won for awhile there. I think you'll see the B1G and SEC combining for around 90% of titles, while the rest (just ACC/ND really) occasionally peel one off. The larger playoff is good for playoff access for underdogs, but it's actually quite bad for their title chances once they get there.
All this aside, I am quite annoyed that I have to begrudgingly pull for ND on Monday. And I don't think they have much of a chance, honestly.
January 16th, 2025, 14:58
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I wasn't arguing about the top - yeah the B1G is above the SEC this year at least. The SEC is still deeper through its mid ranks, and that's real and not just a tautology of good teams beating other good teams therefore they're good teams. That is an interesting point that the balance may shift longer term if the B1G schools have more money and use it.
Penn State is going to finish the year with 3 losses to the #1 and #2 and #3 final ranked teams. I'm going to ignore Monday's game as hard as I possibly can... (I'll be driving back from a holiday weekend thing at the time anyway)
January 17th, 2025, 03:08
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(January 16th, 2025, 12:11)scooter Wrote: The money potential from the major Big Ten programs simply dwarfs the southern schools.
India has a much higher GDP than Pakistan but they both spend about the same on defense. The Big 10 is distracted by things like academic excellence, whereas the SEC schools can just focus on being the best football factory they can be  . Check out spending on coaches, for example.
Darrell
January 17th, 2025, 07:43
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(January 16th, 2025, 14:58)T-hawk Wrote: Penn State is going to finish the year with 3 losses to the #1 and #2 and #3 final ranked teams.
I wonder if that has ever happened before? They had a great season, and with Drew and their top RBs deciding to come back they have a great outlook for 2025.
Darrell
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Another year, another season in which the SEC cannot make the national championship game. They are 0-4 against the Big Ten in the CFP during that time. Looking forward to next year as they angrily insist that they deserve 7 teams in or whatever.
More seriously, I am hoping Indiana wins just because it would be quite literally the craziest thing to ever happen to the sport. Fun fact: Indiana has been playing football since the 1800s. Prior to last season, how many 10-win seasons do you think they have had? Take your guess, then open:
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