American Politics Discussion Thread

[superdeath]

ID hope that no real full blown "war" would occur. (i put war in quotes because it would be embarrassing to call Iran worthy of boots on the ground) My thoughts on the matter are that the entire middle east needs a reset, personally.. id like them to be left alone for about 50-100 years, and whatever ground each controls at the point is now their territory. (thank the British for the dividing up bs) But more onto the point: No war will happen.

[Charr Babies]

Trump's plan for Gaza is actually Good, conceptually. It is firmly dumpstering the one state and two state solutions as unrealistic, because they are. Both Palestinians and Israelis proved themselves unwilling to ever accept it. So, because Israel has proved that it can (slowly) obliterate Hamas, they get to keep the land. Palestinians get to safely move somewhere else. The abused Mediterranean beaches can be cleaned up and made into places people might actually want to visit. I believe Trump can make it happen this time, given how DOGE has annihilated my low expectations in just a couple of weeks.

PS: Russian propaganda guy, Gaza is going to be a dead issue in a year or less, time to start fishing for better talking points

As promised, I said I’d call you out in a year.  

I am going to copy the link to this post and and put it on my calendar for next year. Thanks for the good tidings   

In 2024, you’ve moved from denying genocide in Gaza, calling it “some bullshit going on in Palestine,” to later justifying it. As if that wasn’t enough, you openly advocating ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in 2025.

Calling mass displacement “Palestinians get to safely move somewhere else” isn’t clever framing. It’s eliminationist rhetoric used to justify ethnic cleansing and genocide.

And somehow I’m the “Russian propaganda guy”!?

Gaza is going to be a dead issue in a year or less, time to start fishing for better talking points.

You can take that foot out of your mouth now, my lil green friend. 

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[greenline]

At the end of the day, Bibi's fault. Also Qatar.

[BING_XI_LAO]

I used a program called "Vibe" to produce a transcript and AI summary, from which I then selected these points:

• The US uses the war in Ukraine to continue to dominate Europe's energy market, ensuring a strong US dollar.
  
• Europe's financial and industrial capital is being drawn into the US economy, similar to a reverse Marshall Plan.
  
• The speaker discusses the unique 2013 swap line agreement among major central banks, which allows for unlimited and permanent credit exchange.
  

What I like about the Chinese is that they are a genuinely alternative point of view. 

The third point about the Swap Line is discussed at 10:00.

Per Grok, again excerpts:

The 2013 swap line agreement refers to the announcement on October 31, 2013, by six major central banks—the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC), and Swiss National Bank (SNB)—converting their existing temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements into standing (permanent) facilities that remain in place until further notice.

Temporary dollar liquidity swaps began during the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis (starting December 2007 with the ECB and SNB, later expanded), were terminated in 2010, reactivated in May 2010 amid euro-area strains, and periodically extended. The 2013 move made them permanent standing arrangements—a "prudent liquidity backstop" not tied to any specific crisis.

These lines remain active today (with small-value test operations published weekly for readiness). They were enhanced in March 2020 during COVID-19 (e.g., lower pricing at OIS + 25 bp, longer 84-day terms).

Asymmetric dependence on USD liquidity: European banks rely heavily on dollar funding markets. In stress (e.g., 2008, 2011–12 euro crisis, or 2020), the ECB draws on the Fed line to supply dollars. Critics (especially in de-dollarization discussions) see this as formalizing reliance on the US Fed as a de facto global lender of last resort for dollars, potentially giving the US leverage in extreme scenarios.

However, these are structural features of global finance since the 1970s (Bretton Woods collapse onward), not created or worsened by the 2013 standing facility. The agreement merely made an existing backstop permanent and more predictable.

This swap line is unique in that it's permanent and unconditional, without case-by-case approvals as with all other such agreements between countries.

[BING_XI_LAO]

I wonder what the concluding point of this war will be - destroying Iran's power grid and power plants?

[greenline]

The goal is regime change. But it seems like the Iranian resistance is led by morons who jumped the gun rather than waiting for support.

[Mjmd]

One of the key questions is "regime change to what?????". What is the desired end state and how likely is it to happen with tactics being used? Local radio who is normally slightly right had some guy on (probably was already scheduled for another reason related to his org), but he was going HARD on how good of an idea it was and how we had tons of reasons to do. However, he said "they are fooling themselves if they think they will know what will happen next".

[greenline]

They have a bunch of angry middle class people demanding democracy of some kind and the shah's son / grandson on standby. It would probably look like a restoration of the pre revolution government or something more liberalized.

[Boro]

"Democracy" with a monarch (shah) on top. The Last time it happened it was rather dictatorical, not that it mattered to the same west that supported Franco and Pinochet.

[darrelljs]

Which will last longer, ICE in Minnesota or US boots in Persia?

Darrell