[Cornflakes] 57 Christmas Treats That Will Make You Hungry

[Tarkeel]

Thanks for the tech overview, it's not always easy to grasp who is where even as a global lurker.

[Cornflakes]

You don't want to try to contend for the capital

That would be a fool's errand, and the quickest way to be the next eliminated. TBS's stack far out-mans and out-classes my stack. I'm going to make a quick snipe of the border city, leave just a pair of longbows on defense, and then retreat my stack back into my culture for safety. I want TBS to be clashing with Pindicator over the capital.

[Mjmd]

Can't blame a lurker for trying

[Cornflakes]

Launched the GA and managed to squeeze out Civil Service in 1-turn by building research everywhere. So I will adopt Mercantilism and Bureaucracy next turn. TBS has helped me with known tech bonus by researching Banking and then CS right before I turned on research for each. Curiously TBS didn’t switch civics yet. Maybe he got unlucky with GPP rolls?

[Cornflakes]

I'm considering trying to challenge OH for Liberalism to deny him Military Tradition for Cuirs (or at least make it more expensive). Outline of the plan would be to squeeze out 2 GScientists during the GA, and then stack overflow off of the multitude of cheap techs that I have available for backfilling. Research Paper to near completion, then finish it as the final overflow cascade on the turn that the 2nd GScientist is born. Double bulb Education and then 1-turn Liberalism. I wouldn't gain much from that other than a couple hundred beakers at most by taking either Nationalism or Printing Press. But the risk is low because I would be 1-turning Lib in a sequential PB where my tech completes when I hit Enter. If OH takes liberalism first then I dump that stacked overflow into another tech that I want. The other cost is the opportunity cost of what else I could research during the GA, and what else I could use the GPP to achieve.

I have research visibility on OH and he appears to be trickling specialist beakers into Education now (showing 24 turns to complete) suggesting that he doesn't intend to bulb. He has a massive treasury of over 2000 gold now so he should be ready to burn through a good chunk of research now.

[Cornflakes]

Golden Age demographics and graphs:

   

   

For some reason OH still has not turned on tech. He has been banking gold throughout his current golden age (at least halfway through the 12-turn MoM GA). Is he trying to prevent drafting via Known Tech Bonus for as long as possible? Or is he trying to get the GPP for another GA before obsoleting MoM at Nationalism? I suspect the latter. My food is still top in the world but will start to come down somewhat over the next 10 turns (while TBS's will grow from eating Gavagai). I'm nearly fully grown onto all land and coast tiles within my borders, therefore I am starting to convert farms into workshops. Here's a look at the improvements in my empire:

   

Currently I have 18 farms, of which only about 5 are resources. Therefore I will convert about 20 food/turn to 30 production/turn. This will bump me (out of GA) to approximately match TBS. Pindicator is the clear MFG leader thanks to Apostolic Palace and hammers on his religious buildings ... which got me thinking: How feasible would it be to take the Apostolic Palace out of play? Where is it located? Can the city be boated?

   

Turns out the Apostolic Palace is located securely in the interior of Pindicator's core, in his capital of Benny Beaver. Boating is not an option. It also cannot be reached via commando cavalry from any land border. But after some further ruminating I noticed that Pindicator's filler city of Wally Point would provide a beachhead for Commando Grenadiers units, which start with C1 since I'm playing an AGG leader. I will need to carefully consider the timing of the theoretical strike since that will upsetting the world Balance of Power and earn an eternal enemy. But if I can set up a commando factory for gunpower units I could potentially execute surgical strikes on any rival, potentially as the "domination" win condition or at least to set back the economic power of my rivals.

Commando is a 5th-tier promotion which requires C4 as the prerequisite, which requires 17 XP for AGG melee or gunpowder units. I'll sum up the available XP for gunpower units (and melee in parentheses which is slightly different)
• Armory +4 (+5)
• Colosseum +0 (+1)
• Vassalage +2 (+2)
• Theocracy +2 (+2)
• Westpoint +5 (+5)
• TOTAL 13 (15)

Pentagon would provide additional +2 but Industrialism is a significant additional tech investment (plus the hammer cost of the wonder) and melee units are obsolete with Rifling tech. So in practice a GGeneral is needed in order bump melee units to Commando in the short term, while the GG + either Pentagon or a 2nd GG is required in the long-term. I'm starting to regret the quick use of my first GG as a super-galley. Sure I'll get free upgrade to a 6-move Galleon, but everyone knows that I have it at this point and it will be unlikely to surprise someone.

With Pentagon, any city could build 10XP Infantry for C4 (or C3/Amphibious or C2/Pinch/Amphibious), as well as 10 XP ships. Given the tight map and abundance of water this would get very uncomfortable very quickly for my rivals. Pentagon would essentially be the equivalent of Charismatic trait on top of my AGG. So that's a long-term objective there. Pentagon = terror-for-my-rivals.

And finally, my capital in Bureaucracy + Golden Age ... I don't have Moai Statues due to the early warfare with Gavagai and no stone on the map. My island city has finally completed rebuilt basic Granary/Lighthouse/Courthouse/Library infrastructure and is now slowly building Moai.

   

The screenshot is actually from last turn. Grocer is queued after the bank to address the health issues. I'm expecting the game to go into the industrial era era or beyond given that we still have a tight 4-horse race. I will therefore be focusing on infrastructure, while gradually buffing my defensively-oriented military. This is a good segue to discuss foreign affairs. The remaining 4 players in descending order of my current perception of their long-term potential:

TBS: Nebuchadnezzar (PHI/IND) of Babylon
TBS built Great Lighthouse early and launched into the lead position when Gavagai attacked and dragged me back. Early and cheap forges catapulted him to a large MFG lead, which was converted to a stack of knights. TBS suffered a minor setback when Pindicator and I stabbed him during his rise to power, and a larger setback recently when OH razed a city shortly after TBS launched his invasion of Gavagai. After my backstab I have postured a friendly attitude and have done everything I could to be a good trading partner. I opened borders even though TBS built the Great Lighthouse (worth about 14 gpt), I traded Gold luxury to TBS in exchange for Gems [TBS subsequently popped Gold ... and I popped another Gold copy a few turns later ]. TBS is currently gifting me Gems and Dye, which I see as a trade for the gpt he is getting from my OB ... he may see it as extortion for a safe backline while invading Gavagai I really don't know what our true attitude is. If it wasn't for our relations penalty due to border tensions I'd say we were Friendly. But we have an asymmetric border where he (and only he) can hit me in a valuable flatland border city from the fog with mounted. I'm pre-building fort-canals for future naval action, and he certainly knows it. Therefore our relations are probably "neutral"

• Strengths: World best military, most land, world most cumulative beakers
• Weaknesses: Many coastal cities, land neighbor to all remaining rivals, perceived in current #1 position
• Opportunities: PHI bulbs, short-term military edge to cripple OH or I (but rapidly closing window)
• Threats: vulnerable to massive naval forking via Galleons, "slow-down-the-leader" embargos/hostility
• Chance of Victory: 30% ... if status quo is maintained he wins, but not overwhelmingly

Cornflakes: Ragnar (AGG/FIN) of America
Early lead was cut back due to Gavagai war, but the setback has largely been overcome. I was the land leader after bringing the war to Gavagai's territory until TBS recently conquered territory, and still am the pop leader through a dedicated focus on growth and construction of a dozen grassland farms. In my opinion my first GA was excellently timed to burn through tech, swap civics, and work on infrastructure with the hammers. The GNP quagmire is behind me now, and with FIN cottages blossoming and FIN banks completing over the next few turns I'm poised to become the GNP leader. I'm converting the farms to workshops now with the help of Serfdom boosting worker efficiency. The recovery was accomplished via calculated risk taking and skimping on military, while posturing for peaceful relations with TBS as his power spiked. I was and still am skating by on a paper thin military. Gavagai (on the verge of elimination with only 1 city) has more actual fighting power than I (although my graph-power is boosted by tech and buildings). One huge geopolitical asset is that my militarily-strong neighbors are both presently engaged in conquering the same rival and will end up with their stacks on a common border with each other. And Pindicator will have much worse access to my core, and would end up with a very awkward border if they try splitting my territory.

• Strengths: FIN commerce and AGG promotions. Low expenses due to AGG maintenance discount, Courthouses everywhere, and cheap banks nearly completed.
• Opportunities: creative tactics with promotions, focus on research-multiplier-buildings to capitalize on low expenses and high slider.
• Weaknesses: fully grown, no growth potential without conquering. Vulnerable to naval forking with many valuable cities on the Pindicator sea.
• Threats: TBS mounted attack from the fog. Naval attack by Pindicator.
• Chance of Victory: 26% ... I'm an optimistic personality, and I like my opportunities for creative tactics and EvilPlots™. I have to bump myself up.

Pindicator: Asoka (SPI/ORG) of Azteca
Pindicator has displayed excellent execution of the RtR Aztec toolkit. I strongly considered the exact combo, and Pindicator seems to have played it well. I really like Pindicator's current demographics and position. Ironically I think that Pindicator's strong current position is somewhat of a detriment to his long-term potential. Pindicator has recently researched Guilds and appears to be militarizing in response to TBS. Research pace in the Medieval and Renaissance eras is still accelerated due to our advanced start and I'm afraid he will find the investment in military will bring little returns in the short term. TBS is already ahead in eating Gavagai, and Pindicator won't be able to achieve enough separation from either OH or I to enable a conquest without interference from TBS. If Pindicator attacks first and allows TBS to pile on for cheap gains it will result in TBS accumulating an unstoppable lead. But TBS on the other side has no need to be the first attacker, having already acquired sufficient land to digest over the near term (forcing someone else to make a move). Our relations have been overall "Friendly". We have built up some long-term bonuses due to luxury resource trade and added raport from mutual military struggle in our joint backstab of TBS.

• Strengths: Strong demos from the monk wonders, especially MFG through Apostolic Palace as compared to rivals. Ultimately hammers will win the game, and Pindicator has an un-matched advantage over the rest of the field.
• Opportunities: Play the long game to leverage the current demos plus ORG and SPI.
• Weaknesses: Current 2nd place puts the "burden" of challenging TBS in his lap. Concentration of yields from the Apostolic Palace presents a single-target weakness that could be exploited.
• Threats: razing of Apostolic Palace city. Also needs to be careful his SOD doesn't get hit with a first strike by TBS in the border area where they are both attacking Gavagai. Vulnerable to massive naval forking via Galleons.
• Chance of Victory: 24% ... I like his position, but I have to put myself higher

Old Harry: Peter (EXP/PHI) of Ethiopia
Old Harry built up quite a portfolio of wonders despite TBS being the sole IND player. OH sniped Colossus early, and went on to land MoM and Pyramids. I shudder at the hammer investment there (although Pyramids was likely rushed with a Philosophical GEngineer). Despite the wonders (or perhaps because of the wonders ) OH has lagged in all of the demos. OH and I have not had much interaction. I declared a phony war early before stabbing TBS in the back. OH offered a couple resource trades in exchange for stopping trading with TBS, but we don't share a land border and neither of us have valuable cities on our water border so I wasn't concerned about letting our trade relations languish. Other than open borders I don't think we have had a single trade over the course of the game. I'll put our relationship at "neutral". The big question is whether his looming burst of treasury-funded PHI-boosted teching in the coming turns can provide an opportunity to gain land.

• Strengths: Nice wonder portfolio, Representation civic as PHI
• Opportunities: Cool 2000+ treasury balance , PHI bulbs, much potential for quickly advancing through the Renaissance techs.
• Weaknesses: Medieval tech gap (Machinery/Feudalism/Guilds/Banking), few ports for long-term naval production, land neighbors with the current top-2 militaries, little opportunity to expand militarily, lagging in key demos.
• Threats: some naval forking via Galleons, coordinated attack between TBS and Pindicator to divide his land from opposite directions.
• Chance of Victory: 20% ... Needs to make a move in order to avoid falling behind due to land and pop, but neighbors are strong.

[civac2]

So having a lot of coastal cities is a weakness because they are vulnerable to naval raids. Having few coastal cities is also a weakness because that means low shipbuilding capacity.

Thanks for the overview. Your thoughts on the game state are very instructive.

[Cornflakes]

Gavagai attacked out with his 27 HA at TBS. He did some minor damage (70k soldiers) but lost 150k+. This turn he 4-whipped his capital and abandoned it ... to take the one city that I had captured from him and gain a couple turns on life support. I had left 2 spears and one (damaged and healing) swordsman on defense. Collectively my defenders killed 4 Immortals and 2 HA for 12 GG points. If TBS leaves me alone to recapture that city I should be able to earn from the 11 defending HA/Immortals all 19 remaining GG points needed for the next GGeneral (the one which is needed to achieve commando mace -> grenadier upgrades with West Point). I will just need to be careful with attack order and make sure I'm choosing +2XP combats.

[Cornflakes]

Turns have been dragging 2-3 days lately Hopefully with Gavagai's exit the remaining 4 of us can get into a rhythm with our turn windows and keep up a regular pace ... Speaking of Gavagai's exit:

   

I'll get the kill this turn! And I'll get the GGeneral as well! My trebs have 83% odds already without taking CR1 promo. I have about 4 extra hitters so I should be able to clean this up easily, and likely without even losing any units if the first couple trebs roll well.

***Promotes the first 4 trebs to CR1 to improve odds to 87%*** WIN ALL!!! ...
***Gets cocky and doesn't promote the final treb at 94%*** LOSE

Oh well, won all the remaining fights. I think only 2 of the remaining combats were <99%, although I had to promote 2 spears to suboptimal CR2 and C3 promotions instead of formation in order to take out spears early on to make those two combats 95-ish% instead of 85-ish% with just C2. I figured I'd rather have a couple suboptimally-promoted units rather than lose one of them.

   

The Persian civilization is destroyed! And thanks to the weird culture clearing mechanics my stack ended up inside my culture this turn when it should have been in neutral territory. I'll take the free +15 savings from unit supply costs, thank you very much! At the turn roll that tile reverted to neutral, but my stack will move back inside my culture again.

I'm taking a risk with my stack exposed to TBS's 25+ knights in Persepolis, but he mirrored back a fish-fish 2 turns ago which I interpreted as a "green light" to proceed with my attack. I held off revolting into Organized Religion this turn, in order to reserve a Slavery swap if needed. Once I pull my stack back to safety next turn I'll revolt into OrgRel + Confucianism. Why Confucianism? Purely to maintain the holy city +5 culture on the contested border with TBS. I don't every intend to build a shrine and I have 2 Confu cities compared to 3 Hindu cities so it doesn't make much difference what I choose. I considered swapping to Buddhism for the AP religion, but the hammer investment in religious infrastructure doesn't seem like the most profitable use of precious production.

I realized that with OH hitting the Renaissance era next turn at Nationalism I would get an extra +2%/player Known Tech Bonus if I wait one more turn. Therefore I saved gold again this turn and will turn on tech next turn.

Here is a graphs and demographics comparison now that we can calculate all numbers of the remaining 3 rivals:

   

   

Note the I have 1 turn of GA left, and OH presumably has 20 turns of 3-man + Taj GA's remaining TBS should be able to launch his 3-man GA soon with PHI GPP generation. I'm probably 20-30 turns away from my next GA which will hopefully time out with the swap to war civics.

[civac2]

Are you going to spread one of the religions (Confu)?