[spoilers] naufragar's Austria: Conflict and Collapse in the Reach

[naufragar]

I'll try to win Empath, but I worry that everyone else is going for Tyrant and Warlord.



Wait a minute...This isn't Diplomacy!

[naufragar]

Well, I drew Austria, so I'll be dead in a few turns, so I might as well use this thread to stump for the wonderful, newish board game Arcs: Conflict and Collapse in the Reach. (Digital version coming next year.)

It's basically, space Risk meets Hearts? It's awesome. But first, thoughts on Austria.

Austria Thoughts
We're so dead.

To elaborate, the neutral territory that every other country initially wants is roughly uncontested. Russia is an exception we'll get to.




Italy has safe Tunisia and then can choose to go East or West. France has Iberia. England has Scandinavia. Germany has both Holland and Denmark guaranteed. Turkey has Bulgaria and Greece pretty much sewn up if they can say two words to Italy and Austria. Russia can get stood off in Sweden but can generally brute force their way into Rumania (Rum on the board, to distinguish it from ROM=Rome.) Plus Russia starts with an additional supply center to make up for this challenge.

Austria, on the other hand, can certainly get Serbia, but the next year can see Austrian Serbia surrounded by three hostile armies in the Balkans. Free food for Russia or Turkey?

The situation is aggravated by Italy having almost nothing to do except harass Austria. A Venetian attack into Marseille in 1901 seems incredibly silly, so that Venetian army will naturally want to make itself useful in some other way (attacking Austria).

To sum up: by 1902, we can expect to be surrounded in the Balkans 3 to 1, while possibly also having Italian pressure from the West.

We're dead.

General Diplomacy Thoughts
I've pinged Klops (Germany) to let him know that I think we're best friends. I think it'd be actively suicidal for either of us to attack the other when there's neutral territory we need to keep out of rival hands.

Chevalier (Turkey) posted about Richard Sharp's The Game of Diplomacy book, so he's aware of Sharp's contention that Turkey and Austria can never be friends. Sharp writes authoritatively, so it's possible this is CMF's view as well. I'm flexible and happy to be anybody's friend. If I can see the Ankara fleet in the Mediterranean or some similar naval commitment, I can start feeling like we can divide up territory. It's always going to be dicey, because Greece and Bulgaria are naturally his, but Rumania isn't naturally mine. The question of Sevastopol will have to be decided, and Sevastopol being in Turkish rather than Russian hands doesn't actually make much difference to Austria in the first couple years.

Speaking of Russia, Scooter (Russia) can afford to be noncommittal. He, after all, can pack up his toys and decide to play in the North with England and Germany. This gives him the flexibility to accept the best proposal from Austria or Turkey. Unfortunately, it's very easy for both of us to overbid for Russia's favors. I haven't figured out what I want to do about this.

Lastly, Cyneheard (Italy) can be way more of a threat to me than I can to him. For him to grab his natural expansion prospect, Tunisia, he commits a backlines fleet. For me to grab my Serbia, I have to weaken my defense in Trieste. That said, it shouldn't be too hard to convince Cyneheard that Italy thrives at sea and tangling with Austria would commit him to building armies that would hurt in the long game.

England (AdrienIer) and France (Pindicator) are too far away to matter immediately, although England's relations with Russia and France's relations with Italy are crucial to my game.

Final note on players: someone can correct me, but at least England, France, Italy, and Russia are all veterans of Realms Beyond's Werewolf games, which is where serpents go to learn cunning. I'm not exaggerating when I say RB Werewolf players are Olympic gold medalists in text-based manipulation. We'll have to watch out around those guys. And everyone else.

[naufragar]

I continue to be super dead, and I can't shake the feeling that I've already bungled my opening.

I worry that I was noncommittal to Turkey, who now has gone radio silent. Not the biggest deal for Austria except for the fact that Russia is giving me the willies.

scooter - Russia — 11:51 AM
yeah, I don't disagree with any of that. I am very leery of Turkey existing to be a perpetual knife hovering my back for the worst moment
so, I'm totally game for this, but there's not much space to show it initially. actions > words and all that. staying out of galicia may be the best way
I could either promise to stay out and show my commitment that way, or I suppose we could bounce and hide our intentions for a little longer. that may compromise your plans too much though, so I suppose I can leave the choice up to you
Turkey is near certain to simply bounce me in the black sea this spring I think. It seems unlikely I can convince him of any other option

scooter

Something about this set my paranoia off. (Not difficult.) So I rang up my friend, England:

naufragar AUS — 12:29 PM
Info for our intelligence sharing hotline: Russia and I are negotiating to bounce in Galicia. This would leave him with only one unit to claim Rumania and he’d need to bring down the Moscow army to support, leaving him with just his fleet in the north. This isn’t 100% confirmed yet, so please keep confidential! I’ll keep you informed.
Adrien - England — 12:36 PM
Oh that's nice, they promised not to send their army north but you just gave me more reason to believe that

Adrien, I could kiss you. Russia had already committed to a southern strategy in their talks with England, and if their Moscow army wasn't going north, the only places that made any sense were Livonia (nonsense. why convoy to Sweden if you knew England didn't want you putting armies in Scandinavia?) or Ukraine. But if Army Moscow was going to Ukraine, what was Army Warsaw going to do? It wasn't going to hold, surely, and it was unlikely going to attack Germany. So its most likely path was into Galicia. So Scooter already had a move to Galicia in mind when he was talking to England (and me).

So, I decided to test Scooter a bit:

naufragar AUS — 3:30 PM
If (and at this point it’s just if) we decided to demilitarize Galicia and I went Vie-Bud, Bud-Ser, what would Warsaw and Moscow do?
scooter - Russia — 5:10 PM
In this scenario Moscow would almost have to go north and Warsaw into Ukraine I would think


Ok. So that's Russia lying to my face and Turkey going silent (admittedly from my fumbling). We'll just have to put our trust in Italy.

Cyneheard - Italia — 4:46 PM
then it looks something like I'm Ven-Tri, Rom-Apu, and you're Vie-Gal, Bud-Ser, Tri-Alb, and then for Autumn I'm going A Tri-Alb while you go Ser S F Alb - Gre in the autumn, with my army convoying to Tun in Autumn?


Bolding mine. Italy wants me to let his army into Trieste? Surely no bad thoughts there.  Boy, oh boy. I'm super dead.

[naufragar]

We got a new turn! And already our first meta disaster. We had "fast adjudication" turned on, so when we had all submitted orders, the turn processed. Unfortunately, it's possible that some people had temporary, placeholder orders submitted. Well, we decided to play on, because the alternatives (roll back with the bonus information or scrap the game) seemed unacceptable. Oh well. It'll be interesting to read people's threads afterwards to see who was stung by this. For me

My moves were the ones I wanted to make.

And so, onto the new turn:

Fall 1901




What do we see here? In no particular order:
France and England demilitarized the English Channel. This shows a decently high degree of trust, although not as high as a demilitarized Black Sea would be. This means that England and France are practically guaranteed two builds each. Hard to imagine that France bumps England out of Belgium now.

This makes me think it's unlikely that Germany bumps Russia in Sweden. If France and England are allied, Germany isn't going to want to start trouble with his eastern neighbor. More's the pity. The armies in Kiel and Munich probably go to Holland and Ruhr respectively, getting Germany two builds in the Winter.

If Germany doesn't feel that he can keep Russia out of Sweden with the looming England/France threat, then Russia is getting two builds as well. They'll get Sweden for free, and there's barely any chance that Turkey and I keep him out of Rumania. For what it's worth, Russia's moves tell us absolutely nothing we didn't already know. He still can pick and choose dance partners for the upcoming tango.

Turkey continues to be hard to get in touch with. I know that Chevalier is traveling, which makes it possibly outside of his control. All the same, it's frustrating to play a game of Diplomacy with someone I can't negotiate with. If he's dead set against me, so be it, but I'd at least like the chance to verbally spar a bit, maybe shake his faith in Russia. As it is, I don't know what if anything is possible in the Balkans. Maybe it's already stitched up.

And lastly, Italy. Italy reached out to me, upset that the turn rolled. He made it seem like he was seriously negotiating for a Key Lepanto, with his army rolling through Austria to surprise Turkey in the Balkans. I didn't say that I would probably never agree to this. (Fun fact, I did in fact play Austria playing the Key Lepanto once. It ended in disaster.) I think he's still game for anti-Turkish moves, but I need to sit down with a sandbox and see what that would look like, because I'm starting to get uneasy giving him vague comments, when he's coming back at me with actual army and fleet moves. He deserves a better interlocutor.

I guess I should comment on my own moves. Hyper conservative. Didn't have time before the turn rolled to do anything cute with Italy. Bumped in Galicia at Scooter's explicit request. Moved to Serbia to secure the natural expansion prospect. Next turn I'll have to be more committal. Yippee.

[naufragar]

Boy, oh boy. I'm super dead.

This is my fault. I got greedy. Let's go around the board in order of degrees of screwed-up-ness.

The Turkey theater is an absolute disaster. For the record for after the game, I was always pro-Russia, anti-Turkey when thinking about this turn. I thought Russia and I agreed to leave Chevalier high and dry, but Russia doubted my commitment (or just chose Turkey over Austria). I got greedy moving to Greece instead of hitting Constantinople and stopping Turkey at 1 build. I thought I could get away with it because I thought that CMF bought my story and that England had also pressured him into a Russia attack or at least convinced him of my sincerity. (In fact, in the aftermath, Chevalier gave a little bit away:

Sultan Chevalier of Turkey — 3:58 PM
well, wires from around the board started humming to me that Austria was going to take a swing.

Who was sending these wires? I had been expressly noncommittal with everyone about my Turkey plans, except with Turkey, whom I was lying to, and Russia, who I was honest with. The only person that could've tipped Turkey off was Russia.

So let's look at Russia. Russia hasn't actually lied to me (after that early bit two posts up). His moves look very normal and non-committal. But Turkey is the giveaway. I can only explain Turkey staying out of the Black Sea as a signal of a Russia-Turkey alliance, which is bad news for Austria. Expect him to force his way into Galicia next turn.

scooter - Russia — Yesterday at 7:52 AM
I'm still good to take Rum with my fleet as you requested and I agreed to. Still good to support the fleet into Rum just in case Turkey does something annoying?

Bolding mine. Scooter

He's emphasizing the favor he's doing me, but he's actually doing this as a sop to Turkey. Clever.

Up north, he was helped into Sweden, which makes no sense to me, except that Germany wanted to signal that he was pro-Russian. But Germany will have to wait.

Italy. Ouch. This one stings. We suspected that Italy thirsted for our blood from the moment that he suggested I let him walk troops into Trieste, and, scout's honor, he would march them out again later. I then suggested a DMZ during the fall, mostly to see how quickly he'd agree to have me march my defenses away from my borders. So I tried to preempt him, but Cyneheard played a much better move than walking in after my retreating fleet. He moved up for a full on attack. Now, it remains to be seen if he can make gains from this attack before the Turks (and Russians). Oh well, such is life as Austria.

The other players make no sense to me. How did France get three builds? Why did England move an army uselessly back and forth for a year and not convoy to Norway? Why did England and Germany bump, limiting themselves to 1 center, while France got 3? Why did does Germany seem so keen to demonstrate his pro-Russia sentiments?

It's a strange world out there, but we take comfort in the thought that we won't have to live in it for very long. 

[naufragar]

I can't pretend to even know what I'm doing, let alone the rest of the table. Nevertheless, we march on:


This time, let's start with ourselves.

Austria was surrounded on all three sides by powers slathering to take a bite out of her home centers. So I decided to give up one of my home centers gratis, without promise of anything in return.  Plenty of times, Diplomacy moves look like completely bungling. "But what if it worked!" Well, if it worked, it would've looked genius. But here we are. I moved out of Trieste and let Italy roll in. I could have kept Italy away forever (or at least until Russia-Turkey broke in), and because I could keep Italy out, I figure he'd be the most gobsmacked if I just gave him my unprotected back. Poor, earnest naufragar. In exchange for letting Italy into Trieste, I extracted no concession, but I figured, he'd be happy with the free center and the parked army in my cores and might let me live a little longer.

Turkey did as expected and held. I couldn't risk them doing something tricky, so I had to attack Serbia. If I didn't and then he guessed, he could've wiped out the Greece army.

This gave Russia a chance to roll in. I could've bounced them, but again, that would've risked losing Greece. Now Russia is roughly in the same menacing position that Turkey and Italy were in. (Don't worry. Now Italy is much, much more of a threat.)

I have no idea what's going on with the board, and I'm not invested enough in them to sound them out. France is helping Germany into Holland while moving into the Channel. This looks like a terrible betrayal of England. Meanwhile, Russia is leaving England at peace. England is pressing on Germany, but if France has swung against them, they are in deep trouble. That whole England-France-Germany area makes my head hurt. With England unlikely to get any new builds and French fleets and convoyed armies poised to strike the western side of the island, I imagine England has to beg on bended knee for Germany to do something. It's unlikely that Germany can do anything, though. Who knows? Maybe Russia rescues England with the Sweden fleet.

I guess I can talk about my future plans, although at this point, they're more like dreams. The point of getting an Italian army into Trieste is to get another army to pressure Serbia. With the Italian army, I can destroy, rather than dislodge, the Turkish army. With that army removed, all my armies become mutually reinforcing. (Ignore, of course, that I park an Italian army in my home centers.) Now, I'm trying to get Italy and Russia to attack Turkey, but really, they're both well served by helping each other into Vienna and Budapest. It would take a diplomatic miracle to prevent Italy and Russia making common cause here.

Oh well. One step at a time.

[naufragar]

Boy, oh boy. I'm super dead.

Not going to go for a long update but I've missed two turns, so here they are. Firstly:




The treacherous Italians teamed up with the honest but still hostile Russians and have killed me stone dead! Oh well. I rolled the dice that Italy would rather use my armies than give parts of me to Russia. I typed up a long defense of this position for Italy, but even as I was typing, I couldn't help but think, "Man, Italy and Russia should team up to eat me and then kill Turkey." And lo and behold.

But then!


This sure looks like Russia and Turkey made peace and now they'll push back against Italy. In the north, I have no idea who's working with whom. England looks to be in bad trouble. I can't figure out whose side Germany is on. France and Germany are working together against England, but Russia is pushing against Germany a bit. Honestly, these games can turn on a dime, because people can turn on a dime, but I think Russia has to love his position. Perhaps France can grow big and scary? Interesting game. (We, of course, are dead next turn when Russia rolls into Vienna.)

[naufragar]

Boy, oh boy. I'm super dead.

And thus, we were dead.



Well, it gives us time to finish Andor.


It's so hard to tell, even with a quick readthrough of the discord channels, to know what was actually going on, so for history's sake, I'll walk through my turns, few as they are, and let you know what I intended with each one.

Spring 1901: Chevalier (Turkey) had posted in the recruitment thread that people should read Richard Sharp's Diplomacy book. Sharp is stridently opposed to Austro-Turkish cooperation, so when I drew Austria and Chevalier drew Turkey, I suspected that Chev had took Sharp's views to heart. So from the outset, I inclined anti-Turkish. I hate to say it, but I was lying to him from the start. I wanted a Russian alliance against Turkey, and I wanted, somehow, Italy to not be a massive problem. I did say one honest thing to Turkey. I told him that if he opened to Armenia, I would support him into Rumania, and this was true. If Turkey was going to commit so heavily at the start, I would certainly have thrown my lot in with him. He declined.

I already posted in this thread the diplo that activated my paranoia with regards to Russia and Italy. Even after reading through the discord, I still don't know if Russia was generally ambivalent about an Austrian alliance or if they were out to sink it from the get-go. With Italy, perhaps there was genuine miscommunication? I offered a bounce in Venice and he seemed to agree. Then we started talking about a Lepanto. I tried to bait him a bit by playing dumb. "Hey what's a Lepanto?" And Cyneheard instantly started talking about the Key Lepanto variant in which Austria lets an Italian army into Trieste on the first turn. I wasn't keen on the idea, so I didn't display any enthusiasm, going so far as to link him Lepanto lines that didn't involve my letting foreign troops into my core. Italy, either through enthusiasm or malice, didn't seem to read my coldness, so when Spring 1901 was adjudicated early, he was upset that we hadn't hashed out the Lepanto possibility. All of it (the early Lepanto suggestion, the apparent hoodwinking of a newbie) made me deeply distrustful of Italy.

Oh well.

Fall 1901: Now was the committal turn. I was still pro-Russian and anti-Turkish. In fact, I was even more pro-Russian because England's apparently anti-Russian moves in the north gave me hope that Russia would have to worry to much about the north to become the dominant power in the south.

I continued to tell Turkey that I would support him into Rumania. It was a lie, and perhaps I didn't sell it as well as I could, but I had hoped it would have been reinforced by England dangling the prospect of a hemmed-in Russia to Turkey.

Russia, for his part, didn't have to do anything revealing. I asked him to take Rum with a fleet, which he agreed to and did, so I had minor warm fuzzies to him.

Italian diplomacy made me go from wary to full-blown panic. I tried again to broach the topic of how we could build trust along our Ven-Tri border. Italy noted that "a bounce slows us down too much." Oh dear. Well, what about a DMZ? He said that a move to Piedemont was out of the question as too anti French, but he would consider going to Tus. ("Bullshit," my bullshit-detector said. What's in Tus?) I floated the idea of him moving a fleet into Greece. This was a bad idea. It was a bad idea to suggest it, because Cyneheard became suspicious, and it would've been a bad idea to act on, since Italy wouldn't get Tunisia until very late. I shouldn't have suggested it. My thinking was that I wanted to try to offer something to Italy to get him off his (apparent?) anti-Austrian path, but I didn't want to suggest convoying an army, because I wouldn't have been able to stomach an Italian army in the Balkans. It was clumsy diplo. But see the rest of the turn from my perspective: Italy has proposed an """""anti-Turkish"""" move which involves moving an Italian army into Austria. After this goes nowhere, he doesn't suggest anything like a normal set of anti-Turkish moves. I suggest an albeit clumsy anti-Turkish move. This gets turned down and countered with nothing. So from my perspective, Italy has tried to fool me once and now doesn't even suggest any future path forward. With all that on my mind, I order Trieste-Venice, thinking that if Italy does move away, so be it, I would be wrong but rich, and if he does try to attack, thank heavens I moved.

Of course, he did move to attack. Cyneheard refers to this as an Austrian stab, whereas I see it as an Italian one. Who knows? He since told me he wasn't planning on attacking. Perhaps mutual paranoia tripped us up.

The real disaster of the game was my move from Serbia to Greece. I was thoroughly confident that Chevalier bought my story and that he would try to move to Rumania. Unfortunately for me, Russia had been regaling Turkey with tales of my duplicity. That's what I get for trusting someone! So Turkey made the natural counter-move by ordering Bul-Ser. This killed me stone dead. I keep going back and forth on this. Turkey's Bulgarian army had three potential moves. It could've attacked Rum; it could've attacked Greece; it could've attacked Serbia. If it moved to Rumania, my move to Greece is great. I've got tactical flexibility in the Balkans and bargaining power with Russia. If Bulgaria moves to Greece, also good. I've bottled up Turkey, kept him at one center, and countered his potential deception. On my end, if I'm not supporting Turkey into Rumania, I can either stand, attack Bul, or go for Greece. Both standing and attacking Bul don't gain me much besides signaling my anti-Turkish stance.

Looking back, the risks of loosing Serbia far outweighed any potential gains, so I should've played more conservatively.

Spring 1902: Now the craziness begins. At this point, I have three enemies. Turkey and Italy hate me because I moved against them. Russia had been able to sit on the fence, and there was no hope that he would rescue me rather than profit off me. I ran through the tactics, and nothing worked. The Greece army was cut off and would soon be destroyed, and then I'd be left with 3 units against 3 powers. I didn't have any hope of a diplomatic solution because I had nothing to offer that they weren't already preparing to take by force.

My one bit of leverage, I thought, was with Italy. I could hold off Italy forever and prevent him from gaining any centers. The way I phrased it to Italy (and I was sincere!): "if I stop you from getting Trieste, do you ever get a fifth center this game?" I stand by that logic (and as of Winter 1903, I seem prescient). So I took a gamble. I gave Italy a way into the game. I offered up Trieste for free, just on the hope that he would recognize his need for more units to stand against the Russo-Turkish juggernaut. I told him I would move my Trieste fleet to Albania.

I didn't say much to Turkey or Russia. Anything would've been a lie, and they would've known it.

Fall 1902: This was the leap of faith turn. If Italy went along with my plan, we would destroy Turkey's army in Serbia. (I had also floated a plan to Russia that would see Turkey's Bulgarian army destroyed, but Russia wasn't interested.) Unfortunately, Italy and Russia combined to crack into my center, deleting the Budapest army, leaving the Greece army unsupported. It too would be destroyed. I think part of this was due to fears of French ascendance. If Italy and I allied to stand against Russia and Turkey, we could probably halt the RT advance, but that just gives France time to eat England. Pity.

This turn, it looked like Russia turned on Turkey as well with a move to the Black Sea.

In the Winter of 1902, I only had one center and so had to disband a unit. I choose to disband my army in Vienna rather than my fleet in Albania. This looks spiteful, but I think it's perfectly justifiable: One army surrounded by 4 enemy armies wasn't going to last. Neither Italy nor Russia would do business with me while they had to account for 1 rogue army with nothing to lose. On the other hand, an empty center might cause enough diplomatic strain that Italy and Russia bounce off it. Stranger things had happened.

Spring 1903: And I was right! Nobody moved to attack Vienna. I feel justified. Disbanding Vienna almost certainly made me live longer than disbanding Albania would have.

This turn, Chevalier asked me to attack Italy in the Adriatic, and I thought, what the heck, why not? That move made as much sense as going anywhere else.

Fall 1903: And just like that, Russia marches into undefended Vienna, and we are eliminated.

It turns out Russia's pivot to Italy and away from Turkey was a feint. Italy is about to be pushed out of Austria by the Russo-Turk and has just lost Tunis, forcing them to disband a unit.

I'm struck how often moves can either look great or terrible almost at random. I warned Cyneheard that Russia had chosen Turkey as an ally and splitting me with Russia would doom Italy. Right now, that prediction looks great, but it's easy to imagine a world in which Russia does go through with the stab. (Who knows? Maybe we're still in that world.) Likewise, my moves to Greece and Venice look awful, but if only...

Oh well. This was fun! Glad to have been part of RB's first diplo game in almost a decade!

[Tarkeel]

I'll try to win Empath, but I worry that everyone else is going for Tyrant and Warlord.



Wait a minute...This isn't Diplomacy!

Great game though; I've got to play it a few times recently.

[naufragar]

Great game though; I've got to play it a few times recently.

I love it, despite being so very bad at it. The artwork is just a joy.