[PB81] naufragar is a rock. He is an iiiiiiiiiisland.

[naufragar]

We steal upon TBS's wonders with cat-like tread.

Fun naufragar fact: I saw the actor who played the Pirate King (Kevin Kline) on stage some 35 years after The Pirates of Penzance and he was still hilariously spry.



Sims say this is hella scary, but I should come out on top. I'm like 60% sure that if TBS swings on his turn, I can maybe almost burn his Parthenon city. It's so dang tight. I moved one chariot that was skirmishing near Ashurbanipal into my stack to soak catapult hits. The other one I had already moved on a recon mission. (TBS's cap isn't actually vulnerable. Worst case he just cash-upgrades that warrior to a spear.)

TBS offered me a smaller peace treaty than he had the previous turn, so he's at least presenting himself as less worried about my attack this turn than last turn. I offered him peace in exchange for 200 gold up front and 30 gold per turn. We'll see what he thinks. If he thinks Parthenon city is vulnerable, then my offer is a good one. If he thinks he can hold the city, then he'll tell me to buzz off. Then I have a real conundrum. Do note his 3 turns to Guilds.

Side note: I can't break open borders with Mjmd but I need to do that ASAP. I'm getting literally nothing from it.

[naufragar]

Have any of you ever tried the Boudica economy? All you do is tech to Maces and then all your opponents start giving you free stuff. There are no downsides whatsoever.


So TBS agreed to my terms, which probably means they were way to light and he'll just shrug off the loss of income. Oh well. He's now showing 1 turn to Guilds, but the peace will give me 9 turns to build my defenses up. Naturally, defenses mean expeditionary Carracks.

Have to overcome these awful stats:


TBS has 29% of the world's population. (There are 6 players, so that's...bad.) Mjmd has double my land. That's also bad, but that particular badness takes a backseat for now.

Oh well. We move on.

[naufragar]

Finally, finally back home. I'm all traveled out.

But in the game...



Land ho!

[naufragar]

This is called hope:



This is some of the richest land I've seen. If I could get three or even more cities out of this, I'd be on a much more even footing with my neighbors.


I was away for about a week, and it completely distracted me from this game, so I've been trying to reacquaint myself. TBS grabbed the Music artist and started his two-man golden age, so he's got another 12 turns to shoot up to wherever. He's teching Optics while denying me Open Borders, which seems like a defensive move. I don't know where he goes from here. He is increasing his power, but a knight invasion into either of me or Mjmd feels dicey. I guess I'm the easier target, but we'll see. Or TBS could be looking to shoot up to Liberalism, Econ, etc.

I know that TBS is terrifying right now, with double my GNP for 24 turns (and I'm #2 GNP). But I really do believe that on a long enough timescale, Mjmd with Organized and more land edges him out. TBS is getting a huge boost from the Colossus right now.

Speaking of which, I hold out hope that if I can settle this island, I've got it for a long time. TBS can't tech Astro without obsoleting Colossus, which I think would be excruciating for him. Who knows? Maybe his tech is so good he can go to transports without ever hitting galleons. 

It'll be about 10ish turns before I can settle. Those carracks aren't loaded with workers and settlers, because I was expecting to encounter other players. They're loaded with macemen. What can I say? I commit to the bit.

Anyway, to all you flying camera haters out there, look how pretty this picture is:

[Commodore]

Ctrl-R for us, please?

Edit: And given that stat screen, shouldn't the other continent also need settlers to invade?

[greenline]

I count three grassland tiles. That counts as rich land?

[naufragar]

More island pics with resource bubbles on for Comm:



Actually, this is dangerously too good. If it were smaller, TBS would hesitate to contest it, since grabbing a couple city spots isn't worth obsoleting Colossus, but this looks like a subcontinent...

Well, we'll try to stake our claim.

Edit: And given that stat screen, shouldn't the other continent also need settlers to invade?

Until I have Astro, I can't trade with any cities I settle over the ocean, which makes them extremely expensive, so the original plan was to go around wrecking havoc (especially if I could find Xist, who seems to be the major power on the other continent). I've been able to punch above my weight because of some asymetical advantages (first, macemen; now, carracks), but I'm really piloting a middling empire. And at this particular moment, I'm pulled in every direction. I need to build up my catapult stock as TBS builds up Knights. I need to finally get infrastructure, which I put off in favor of that early mace/galley military. And now I have an excruciating need for, what, half a dozen settlers and workers across the seas right damn now? It's tough. I probably drop the maces off on the Newfoundland and turn the carracks around, so I can transport as much as I can as quickly as I can.

I count three grassland tiles. That counts as rich land?

It's the food-density that's blowing me away. In my empire, I have 12 food resources for 12 cities.


(I'm not counting the whales.  But I am counting the plains cow.  ) So the discovered land is way, way fatter than anything I've got. I'll be able to run plains cottages with it. (And I'm already running two bare plains cottages in my core. Brief aside on tile improvements: I've cottaged almost every green tile I can work. I've been putting lumbermills on green forests because the difference between a village and a mill working wealth is negligible, and I plan on making use of hammers.    )

Anyway, have a big overview:


That silly little one-tile isthmus that separates Mjmd from TBS & me warps this entire game. (Leaving aside Mjmd's early murder of Superdeath.) It's practically impossible for TBS to ever attack down it, so if TBS needs to grow, he needs to grow from my homeland or my soon-to-be colonies. He does have a massive tech lead, but, again, Mjmd is doing his favorite thing, displayed most recently in PB75, he's putting his head down, avoiding trouble and hoping to grow his way out. If he can't, who cares. If he can, TBS has to eat me. So either way, TBS and I are more antagonistic than TBS and Mjmd right now.

Interesting game.

[naufragar]

At long last:


Those borders belong to Dreylin (Willem of Rome). He's the lowest on the scoreboard, which is a mixed blessing. As an eventual victim, he'd be the easiest of the three New World-ers. On the other hand, I need to scope out the land to make sure I'm not giving Xist an avenue to unite the continent.

It is reminiscent of the conquistadors, in fact. We won't be a particularly strong invading force. We just have to hope to capitalize on existing tensions between the locals.

The Victory screen says I've got 16% of global pop, while TBS has 27%. Mjmd has double my land, but let's be conservative and say he's got ~21% of global pop, putting him in between me and TBS. (The real number is likely much higher, since TBS and Mjmd are tied for Crop Yield.) This means the vet continent has ~64% of the world's population, leaving 36% for the New World. Split evenly, each player would have 12%, but we know that it's not split evenly. This turn, I dropped to 4th in crop yield, so let's (again, conservatively) give Xist 16% global population, leaving Dreylin and Gira with 10% each. If I can keep developing, I should be able to cause some real havoc over on the other continent. But as I said, the issue is Xist, who is tied with me for score and killed his neighbor early, claiming half a continent.

Back at home, Mjmd has finally passed me in every metric (I had held out in Mfg for a while) and TBS finally has more power than me. I mentioned in the last report: I have a million different priorities. I need to get catapults and pikes to defend against TBS. I need to colonize the new world. I need to get my very delayed infrastructure done. It's incredibly hectic.

Pseudo-edit: The fact that the small pig island hasn't been settled yet implies that Dreylin has been very busy elsewhere...

[naufragar]

Interesting:


Gira and Dreylin's borders. They're at war currently.

Both of their empires are smaller than mine, and considerably less technologically advanced:


No Currency for Gira is interesting. No Machinery/Engineering for either, so Macemen would still be viable. Xist has to be loving this. His continental neighbors both underdeveloped and squabbling.

But I can't conscience attacking them while there's this ridiculously lush island to be settled. If I didn't have to contest TBS for it, I'd feel great. As is, this is incredibly precarious. Gah!  Seriously. If I didn't have to worry about TBS's insane tech pace, I'd feel very confident with where this game is heading. (Merc+Rep while being top Food is a hell of a thing.  ) I might have to get Galleons preemptively, just to hold the New World. But then (and I realize I'm rambling) that forces TBS to go for Privateers, and he can get to Privateers very quickly, and I'm again on the back foot. Man, this is frustrating.

I just can't see a world in which TBS lets me settle 6 lush new cities, while he has the advantages he does. You know who this benefits? Mr. Wait and See Mjmd! I can imagine a future in which TBS and I are dragged into a blood feud, while Mjmd can builder his way into contention, as is his wont. Fascinating game state, if incredibly aggravating.

Edit: To put TBS' tech pace into perspective, he can tech Astro in 6 turns (at the slowest estimate!), whereas I would need ~20.

[naufragar]

I'm getting a little annoyed:


I don't know how to calculate probabilities, but the internet tells me I had a ~5% chance of having 3 revolts in 8 turns. Since the city is useless, losing its productivity isn't actually that bad, but the constant damage to the macemen is really bad, when I'm holding them as a reserve to defend my front against TBS.

His power is spiking in a very scary way, meanwhile I'm filled with regret:


If I hadn't been so enamored of settling the New World, TBS and I could be having a tooth and nail Caravel fight as I try to hit his ports with macemen. I have 4 macemen on the Astro island, and those could've been used to burn a size 12 TBS city. On the one hand, if I had gone 100% aggression against TBS, I maybe could have burned some coastal cities. On the other hand, it's easy to imagine him outbuilding me on the water and then crushing me with knights. Maybe this still happens? Task #1 is to not die to TBS in the next 10 turns. Then we'll see if we can survive another ten, and so on. What I wouldn't give for a little 1 tile isthmus to protect me.