[SPOILERS] Team EggHeads: DMOC and TeddyKGB (Now Lurker-Friendly!)

[TeddyKGB]

4th team settled:
Barteq / Geo (with Harami dedlurking)
Ragnar (Fin/Agg) || Rome (Praetorian (Sword) and Forum (Market); Fish/Mining)

They didn't finish turn either.

5th team settled:
Team Blame Caledorn - YossarianLives / Caledorn (with Scooter, Old Harry and Cheater Hater dedlurking)
Isabella (Spi/Exp) || Inca (Quecha (Warrior) and Terrace (Granary); Myst/Agri)

Didn't finish the turn.

And I've missed it, but one team earlier finish turn without settling:
Team Care Bears - Yuufo / Bisons
Victoria (Fin/Imp) || India (Fast Worker (Worker) and Mausoleum (Jail); Myst/Mining)

[DMOC]

Thanks for the demographics. And I'll try to figure out something with Photobucket or decrease my resolution.

Btw thanks again for logging in, today was a little busy since it's my brother's birthday. Will hopefully have more time tomorrow night to look at this --- thank god for the 72 hour turn timer.

Also feel free to use signs -- I know some people are annoyed by them but I rather like them.

[TeddyKGB]

Updated save file after some fog reading.
Not gonna use BUFFY at all for some time, so its just archive with standart save without any mod.

Posted some signs where I'm unsure and obv I could be wrong where I was kinda sure. Ice tiles in the fog in the real game.

If anyone of you guys would like to sim a bit, it be great.
Beside us and team CareBears, who finish turn without settling, just 3 team left to make their move.

As for settling, let's set up some goals for sims to compare opening:

1. Pottery done.
   
2. Every city setup for fast Granary as soon as possible.
   
3. Number of cities up to you.
   
4. Enough Worker for chopping / improving your cities.
   
5. Enough Warriors to provide security. Horses or Copper could be near, so I hope warriors wont be our only military unit in the real game. But with no knowlege of strategy resources location, we cold sim it like barbs is our only problem.
   
6. Revolted to Slavery.
   
7. Or just another option, asuming we find Horses close: go Pottery before BW. I have no MP expirience, so not sure if it viable in current situation (rushed by Impi huh). What about SIP and go like Hunt>AH(T20, yay Horses!)>Mining(T27)>Fishing(T??)>Pottery(T??)>BW(T??). This option will be open till T27, when we can reevaluate with more knowlege of teams around us and after some diplomacy (NAPs) done. Just a thought.
   

Some other thoughts:

• What about SIP and go Fishing sooner? I did a quick Fish>Hunt>AH sim few days ago, it was slower than DMOC's SIP sim, but maybe there is some potential. What do you think?
  
• What about 2nd city location? Obv its to early to dot map, but I kinda like PH with the sign. Ofc, there should be FOOD in the fog to even consider it as 2nd city, but lets hope. On this account, regardless other issues, I like PH 1W on T1 plant better than SIP. It would closer with hard overlap (6tiles total), so we can switch tiles between city#1 and #2 to grow 3 cottages or work 1/3/0 GHmines.
  
• Regardless of where we settle, I see fresh water PH as strong candidate for city#2, if there is two food resource in the fog.
  

As I see it, there is no more good options for capital plant, besides SIP and PH, but just to cover it all:

• Gamble and plant 1N on T0
  
• Move Settler 1-7 on GH. Plant capital on any of four spots on T1
  
• Anything else?
  

today was a little busy since it's my brother's birthday.

Congrats! Please sing happy birthday song for him, like it would be me singing. How old is he now, if you dont mind me asking?

[TeddyKGB]

6th team settled on T0 and finish turn:
Team Eagles & Condors - Kurumi / HBHR (with Oxyphenbutazone dedlurking)
Pacal II (Fin/Exp) || Native America (Dog Soldier (Axe) and Totem Pole (Monument); Fish/Agri)

Just look at average population! Fits team M&M 's theme, I guess.

[DMOC]

He turned 19 ... and I'm 21 years old now.

Will run some sims tomorrow night, then hopefully we can decide by then which route to go. As I said before, I'm leaning towards settling in place, but let's think through it first

dick76, are you around?

[TeddyKGB]

Will run some sims tomorrow night, then hopefully we can decide by then which route to go. As I said before, I'm leaning towards settling in place, but let's think through it first

You could think that I'm strongly pro PH and against SIP. I'm not.
Before scout move, I was like 50/50 at best. And after no visible resource revealed on the tile scout standing now, I'm like 60/40 in favor SIP. But let me be devil advocate here and find some potential in PH plant.
I'll run some more sims of PH start so we can compare and decide. Probably in 12-16 hours time frame.

I'm posting now some older notes that I did, was trying to make nice orgynized (sorry, couldn't resist) post about SIP vs PH, how I saw it. I really hope there is something usefull in this wall of text. Dont want to just delete it now. And I'm adding some fresh thoughts.

My very first argument to move on PH was: we pick a civ with bad starting techs for SIP start.
You can skip this spoiler. There is nothing on our current situation.

Myst is completely usless for us in the opening.
And while Wheel is a good expensive tech and a step to Pottery, we need techs to improve food resources first.
We have no Hunting (to start AH right away).
No Fishing (to start Wb>Worker and Hunt>AH, for example).
Not even Agri, another expensive tech(we dont have crops obv, but If we started with Agri+Fish or Agri+Hunt there could be some options). Agri(like Wheel) on a way to Pottery. One of the two our main goals in tech tree early.
No Mining either, its not a food tech obv, but its opens BW to us. And BW is another main goal in tech tree for us early, imo.

That was my first reaction after we pick Byz and before I did any PH start sims.

There was some screenshots and discussion in this thread earlier.
So we both choose Hunting>AH>Mining path and Settler at size3 after 1 worker.
Settler completed on T33(SIP) and T32(PH). So here some boring thoughts and crazy math.

We both start with worker 1st and Hunting.
While SIP start use Exp bonus right away(0/3/0 tile + center) for total 5hpt into worker, PH plant waste a turn to move and can't get Exp bonus for 3 more turn till borders expanded. So its (2/1/1(deer) + 2/2/1(center)) * 3(turns) for same total 5hpt into worker. And after that PH start can use Exp bonus: 1/2/0+2/2/1 for total 6hpt into worker

And now PH start has some troubles to keep up in techs ETA, thx to wasted turn. You can double check my micro till T32 here. PH start can complete AH on T20(2b o/f) and Mining T27(no o/f) like in SIP sim, except SIP got some big overflow each time.
SIP can't get AH on T19 unless complete Worker on T13 (1 turn slower) and then trade off DeerCamp(1 turn slower), possible slower to size3, and -1 workerturn into roads FOR PasturePigs(1 turn faster) and some hammers o/f from worker. I'll run quick sim to make sure we can't speed up Settler by 1 turn. If we can I'm like 70/30 pro SIP.
For now, lets assume we can't and SIP still goes Worker(T12) and AH(T20).

So, we can compare food and hammer output now.
Worker ready on T12 for both starts with 0h o/f(SIP) and 1h o/f(PH). And its pretty much the same city micro and absolutely the same worker actions for both sims until T32. There is some minor micro with tiles and queue changing in PH sim to get Mining and Settler on time, but nothing special.
From T13 untill time Wb finished its +1hpt for PH plant. You simed Fish netted on T37 so its total +24h for PH plant.
Thats +1 Warrior before settler and faster settler on T32 for PH plant.
Now, we skip Wb on PH obv, so its +30h for PH plant more.
I've said we'll get around +70h on T37 and there is +54h total so far.
Now I know its kinda not completely accurate, but I assumed 1f=1h for us at this point. It was wrong because our next project should be 2nd worker soonish not settler, so 1.25f=1h is more correct cause we are Exp.
To build Wb on T37 in the sim you abandon 6f/0h Pasture to work 0f/3h PH for 4 turns so I calculate it now as 24/1.25-12= +7.2h for PH plant for ~+61h total so far.
Last one, we plant city#2 one turn earlier so its like 4-6h more. Lets say +5h for PH plant for total +66h for PH plant on T37 compairing to SIP.

My math could be wrong but it feels about right after compairing sims.
Please, correct me if I did some obvious mistakes with this calculation.

Once fish connected, things will change in favor SIP.

Tech path will be, I'd guess:
SIP: BW(T48?)>Pottery(??)
PH: BW(T41?)>Fish or Agri>Pottery(??)

As I said, PH could try to stay ahead on hammers with faster set on 4->2 whip cicles.
City#3 or #4 could improve fish for PH capital to compensate beakers difference. But building Wb is -30h for PH plant, cause we already count it as profit when SIP complete Wb on T37.

Timing on Pottery could be the main factor as I see it.
Lets sim till there and compare.

There is more but I should stop typing now, or else I'll analyzing PH vs SIP start to the Liberalism time with some more crazy math.
Sorry, if this post doesn't make much sence to you.

I did original notes for myself mostly to make things clear. But as rereading this spoiler, it looks kinda messy.

tl;dr: I'm 60/40 in favor SIP right now. Lets run our sims till Pottery and compare.

[TeddyKGB]

DMOC, I've been siming a SIP start a bit and there is some improvement could be made.

If SIP we can get Settler on T32 at size3 with 1 Worker and 1 Warrior before settler.

There is, as you can see, no extra food stored and no hammer overflow into 2nd Warrior(at 2/15h now).
1st warrior comes on T26(a bit slow). It's enough to secure 2nd city location in time though.
Tech path the same. Worker actions as usual, so instant trade route.
You can keep city tile management on automode whole time.
The only change in micro is in the building queue on T20-T25.

Here some pictures.

If it's what we want we can go this way and SIP.
There is still hammer superiority by PH opening, though. Means faster expansion and more security.
And I'm not completely sure that just 1 worker before settler is a way to go either.

Here some pics what could be after T32:

As you can see we can get Warrior#2 on T35 and Warrior#3 on T37.
If we skip Warrior#2 and go for faster Wb we'll connect Fish faster, but with only two warriors on T37.
Would it be safe thing to do?
In any case we are currently short on workers and can't produce worker#2 for some time, cause we need warriors and Wb.
Is just one worker enough for two cities?
We can find Horses close on T20. And we want worker to go improve city#2 food resource if there is any cow/pig/ships, instead of building 2nd mine.

As I said, PH sim result on T32 would be +1 warrior already and setup to grow size4 and build warrior#3 on T35.
Or go for worker#2 T36.
And get BW on T41-42.

Pottery timing and our position at this time would be important.
Did you run any sims yet?

[DMOC]

Excellent trick in getting our settler out on turn 32, I was thinking that was impossible to do if at size 3 and settling in place. It makes SIP even better to me.

I'm pretty sure this is the fastest way to get a settler out while having some resemblance of security and worker improvements. (We can do some quick playthroughs of Monarch-level games to gauge barbarian risk, but I'm convinced that having 1 warrior is fine as an escort, especially if we settle close to the capital and if our scout is still alive and can fogbust to the north.

Couple of things:

-I think you made the right call on roading that hill 4-4 of the capital after doing the deer, since it's likely that we'll eventually need fast transportation west and because we will be mining that tile anyway. Once that's done, we can pre-road the pigs for 1 turn, then the turn after that we get Animal Husbandry so we switch to making a pasture.
-Slight error in your reasoning: first warrior is out on turn 24, not 26, and we'll also have a worker finishing up that second road on that pasture that same turn, so the warrior can go 7-1 on that turn. That first warrior should go to the second city site; the capital will be fine.
-On turn 25, you pre-roaded the grass tile 4-4-4 of the capital, right? Then on turn 31 we can road that again, then turn 32 (same turn as settler produced) we mine that hill which already has a road on it.
-If you're worried about security, we can have the second city start on a warrior as its first build. I would highly advise starting a workboat immediately after we get fishing. Note that if the second city has a lake in the first ring we might consider working that, which speeds up bronze working by about 2 turns. Otherwise, I work the 1F 2H plains forest since we know that will be there if we settle the city (capital gets the 1F 3H mine as it builds a workboat).
-I've put a sign on the tile where we can position 1 warrior between the cities and play zone defense. Of course, once the capital is at size 5 we definitely need a warrior there at all times.
-By turn 45, we already get 2 workers for 2 cities, plus Bronze Working due next turn, plus 3 warriors assuming no bad luck (with 1 exploring and 2 acting as city garrisons, and we can always move the warrior in the size 1 city out if needed).

Plan after this would be to switch to slavery in 2 turns (after the settler is produced) and then settle the 3rd city wherever the copper is on turn 50. Tech would be Agriculture -> Pottery, so Pottery would arrive at the turn 60-65 range. It's slow but we do admittedly have terrible starting techs; let's hope the other awesome facts of Sury + Byzantium can make up for it. That is the trade-off I'm gambling at here.

Total tech path: (Myst/Wheel start) -> Hunting -> AH -> Fishing -> BW -> Agriculture -> Pottery, and then Writing after that (but possibly Sailing) to get our scientists running early.

I've included the turn 45 save (hope it works).

---

Some images, at a smaller resolution and I resized the first of the four to be larger (if it doesn't look like it's resized then I think photobucket is lagging; if it never gets sized properly then I should probably stop using photobucket).

I'm going to take a look at the demographics now. Just to note: our GNP to start off will be 18. If we research a tech with 1 prerequisite, our GNP will be 20.

ALSO ... scouting move!!! Since we plan to settle close to our capital (usually best in my opinion) I think our scout should go south a little bit, then west, then loop around to our northwest and the direct north. Since we seem to have cold lands to the south, it makes sense for us to explore the north more.

[DMOC]

Of the 9 other teams, 7 have settled on the first turn and one, Team Care Bears - Yuufo / Bisons , ended turn without settling and Team Master and Margarita are the current unknowns.

Preliminary demographic analysis for the teams that settled in place or 1 flatland away so far:

Team My Little Marathon Cannibal Pony - Classical_Hero / Halvgud: Since they have a GNP of 17, the most likely circumstance is that they are researching a tech without prerequisites and are working a tile with a food yield of 3 AND which has 1 commerce (they have MFG of 1). My guess is that they have some sort of riverside pigs or floodplain and they're working that while researching Hunting. If we worked the deer our starting GNP would be 19, and ours is 2 more than theirs since we are Creative. Their capital is likely coastal; of their starting 9 tiles, 2 are water.

Team Dinosaurs - Whiteye / Raptorous: Their GNP should be 17 as well. Their capital has 7 tiles for sure, like the previous team, and is also probably coastal. Since their MFG Is 5, they're probably working a 3H tile. Pretty straightforward opening, they're almost certainly building a workboat first to improve what is likely a fish tile inside their starting 9 tiles. The tech they're researching is likely Agriculture, Hunting, or The Wheel.

Bowsling / Aivoturso: These guys have a GNP of 20, so they're almost certainly researching Animal Husbandry, which makes sense with the Hunting/Agriculture combination. Hard to say what tile they're working, though, probably one with a total of 3 combined food/prod. My guess is they are not working a tile with 1 commerce, as they have 16 GNP without tech bonus, but since Hunting and Agriculture are both prereqs of AH they likely get 2+2=4 GNP boost. Of note: their capital actually has 8 land tiles, but I'm sure it's still coastal.

Barteq / Geo (with Harami dedlurking): Also have 8 land tiles to start.

Team Blame Caledorn - YossarianLives / Caledorn (with Scooter, Old Harry and Cheater Hater dedlurking): Capital again has 8 land tiles to start.

Team Eagles & Condors - Kurumi / HBHR (with Oxyphenbutazone dedlurking): At last, a team that only has 6 land tiles out of 9 to start with!

Team Orgynized - Lord Parkin / Arkipeller / Magno_uy (with WilliamLP and Dp101 dedlurking): No data yet.

----

I got your email to the 2 spreadsheets (the technology one and the general info one) -- has the general info one been updated? I'm going to try and play around with Google docs to easily access those 2 spreadsheets in the future (I don't use GMail often).

We have just over 40 hours left on the turn ... hopefully we will get ours done within ~24 hours.

[TeddyKGB]

First of all, another team settled anf finish their turn.
Team Orgynized - Lord Parkin / Arkipeller / Magno_uy (with WilliamLP and Dp101 dedlurking)
Huayna Capac (Fin/Ind) || Netherlands (EastIndiaman (Galleon) and Dike (Levee); Fish/Agri)

And team Blame Caledorn finish turn. They did settled before.
So its just M&M team and us undecided.

@DMOC
Thx for simming it out.
I'll answer to your post in full in a few hours.

We have 3 option now to choose from.

1. SIP as in sims above
   
2. move to PH and go as in my sims
   
3. or SIP and go Fishing>Hunting>AH
   

Result:

Its possible to micro Settler out 1 turn faster, I think. On T35.
***Edit*** No its not possible here, was mistaken with another one.

Will post more about it in a few hours.

Now, we can pretty much change our plans about anything onece we choose one of these 3 options.
If we decide SIP, than we have 5 turns, with no research any tech at all, to decide between Fishing or Hunting 1st.

I'm leaning toward SIP and go Fishing 1st with Set on T35, city size3 if we go 1 worker before settler.
I'll post some more in a few hours. We have time still.

EDIT: Set on T36 is ok i guess, this option has some benefits for us, e.g. research timing on BW and Pottery.
You can try to sim it yourself or else I'll do in a few hours.