[SPOILERS] Suboptimal's Arabian Adventure

[suboptimal]

Turn 60

An interesting tidbit in going back over things in my head.  Glenfarclas' tile picker had been consistently selecting the 3 silver tiles as the expansion point except for the one turn in which I was working the 3/1 oasis tile, at which point it went to the cattle tile.  I wonder if I can force the picker to take the cattle tile by working the oasis again if it decides to target the second silver tile.  Hmmmm....   On to the turn….

First, the north.  Two positive developments:



Development One: Rowain has settled….over there.  That works.  I will be able to settle Glenkinchie free and clear. 

Development Two: Tomatin grabbed the right tile.  Chop to complete settler and overflow into Encampment is on schedule! 

Next up.  That little trophy icon in the lower right.  Ichabod wants a DoF.  Let’s see what’s going on in the south:



OK, Kaiser has put the warrior and builder in the city.  Good.  Ichabod has advanced but his warrior is still out of position.  Good.  His scout isn’t really in the way as the sword can go southwest of it then move NW next turn.  Good.  Quick check of the numbers vs. Strength 25 city:

Ichabod: 43-65 in one turn
Me: 117-175 in one turn

Hmmmm....

The DoF would allow Ichabod and myself 30 turns of relative peace to build up our fronts and forces.  This is slightly more advantageous to him as he’s currently the tech and civics leader, though if I capture Kikyo and when I settle Glenkinichie I’ll pull much closer.  I’ll call that an almost wash.  The partial issue there is that it negates my swordsman advantage against him.  However, it’d let me move my swords (well, one of them) north to perhaps put pressure on Rowain (or invade outright after some upgrades and building).  

Major potential downside:  if Ichabod manages to steal Kikyo out from under me I want to be able to attack him to take it for myself.  With a DoF I can’t do that.  That right there is a temporary show stopper.

I decide to not accept the DoF and instead do a 5-for-5 gold trade to try to indicate to give me some time.  If I take Kikyo I’ll offer the DoF.  If he takes it I’ll offer war.

The plan of battle has shifted slightly:



Provided Ichabod does not move into Kikyo’s first ring on his turn I’ll declare war and then move my forces into position as shown above.  That should cut off the warrior’s access to Kikyo’s center for at least two turns.  If he decides to move his scout to the first ring hex in the east that will delay the second sword's arrival.  However I'd still have the flexibility to manage city damage appropriately.

Internationally nothing much has changed.  I decide, belatedly, to put my spare envoy into Hattusa to boost my science.  Next turn I’ll need to change out of State Property – after this turn I’ll have slightly over half complete and will work on Military Tradition while the Encampment completes.  Notably Kaiser has not founded a city with his settler yet.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Thanks for the detailed reports, suboptimal! You've been doing a great job covering this game and I'm enjoying following along. :D

[suboptimal]

Thanks for the detailed reports, suboptimal! You've been doing a great job covering this game and I'm enjoying following along. :D

Thanks for the feedback!

[suboptimal]

Interturn Thoughts on a DoF
(or what happens when I get a good night's rest and too much time to think)

I wanted to take a more thorough look at any potential DoF with England, so here's my line of thinking to help me sort out my thoughts and provide entertainment for the omniscient lurkers out there.  A brief run down of the Ichabod Situation:

- Geographically he's isolated.  That gives him one direction to breakout or advance in any military action.
- He's the current leader in research, both in per-turn rates and total number of techs/civics researched
- He's got the second most powerful military, only slightly behind mine, though he outnumbers me in terms of overall unit counts on this front
- He's already building walls
- He has no strategic resources (yet)

As for the Turn 60 DoF request, there are two strategic/tactical reasons I can think of that he requested that:

1) It would allow him to attempt to poach Kikyo out from under me and remove my ability to attack to take the city from him.
2) Without strategic resources my swordsmen are immediately dangerous.  A DoF gives him 30 turns to build walls and research to engineering for crossbows without any threat from them.

Looking at my own situation:

- Provided I take Kikyo and settle Glenkinchie I'll have two more cities.  Glenkinchie should be generating 4.1 and 2.9 within three turns of founding.  Kikyo will add about another 2 to each of those rates.  That will pull me even with Ichabod's current rates.  

- I have the same military options in the north and south – available or potential promoted swordsmen against warriors and archers. In theory three swords could wreak havoc against either opponent until walls go up or crossbows enter the battlefield.  On either front if I were to declare a war the primary purpose would be to mash units and pillage opportunistically.  Taking cities would be a secondary objective.

In PBEM 2 my impression was that DoF's were entered into as a matter of immediate convenience and short term objectives but no one seemed to have an exit plan until it was almost expired.  I'll chalk that one up to that game being the first PBEM to explore that mechanic in depth.  Here in PBEM 3 I'll admit that my DoF with Japan was also one of short-term expediency.  However, any DoF I enter into from here on out I want to have some idea as to what I intend to accomplish during and after the DoF, particularly as it relates to the other party.

If left in my own little DoF sandbox for 30 turns I'd try to get the following done:

- Encampment (and possibly Barracks) in Tomatin, Commercial Hub in Dalwhinnie, Campus in Glenfarclas, all complete.
- Extinguish Japan
- Found a religion and buy two missionaries – one to convert my cities, another to convert a few of Ichabod's
- Be working on a Great General through the Encampment and Strategos.
- Upgrade remaining troops in the south (possibly archers → crossbows, gold permitting) and add in a few more units.  A battering ram would be nice, too.
- 2-3 swords and 1-2 archers in the north at a minimum, through builds and upgrades.
- Walls at Glenkinchie
- Mount a full-scale assault on Geneva towards the end of the DoF and take it over with a significant military presence (and a missionary).

Why attack Geneva?  It's got a campus and threatens a large part of Ichabod's core.  A large military threat here tactically limits his ability to breakout through Kiyko. How tenable would this position be?  Given the terrain around Geneva it would be quite defensible, particularly if I were to get Defender of the Faith and convert the city.   I want to be in a position after a DoF to present a reasonable tactical and strategic threat to Ichabod, if only to try to keep him bottled up, and Geneva would go a long way in that regard.

Now, what if Ichabod doesn't take a DoF because he was maneuvering for Kikyo himself and isn't looking to neutralize the threat of my swords?  I'd give strong consideration to finishing off Japan and then almost immediately going archer hunting in English lands.   

So, do I or do I not?  That depends on the situation 3-4 turns from now.

Edit: Alternative idea - a DoF with Ichabod would let me send a warrior and sword to Geneva to pillage the out of it (literally) and get back to Kikyo for defense before it expires.  There's also a good chance that Ichabod takes Geneva during the DoF after he gets done with whatever city-state he seems to be working on in his back line.

[suboptimal]

Turn 61

Let’s see what the situation is….did Ichabod declare war on me, simply move his units in the way or hang back?  Did Kaiser preemptively declare war, offer a DoF or wait to see what I’d do?  



Well well well.  One more archer and a horseman from England.  That horse was built this turn in Desolation Row - its city defense was 18 last turn and 28 this turn and that's the only place it could have come from.  In mousing around I see that Battlecry doesn’t apply to horses.  This is good to know.  Notifications from the bottom up:

- DoF with Kaiser expired
- Geneva has declared war on Kaiser, meaning that Ichabod is now their suzerain
- Ichabod has proposed a deal….



Hmmm...4-for-4 for 30.  That’s 1 less than my 5-for-5 straight up.  I’ll interpret that as giving me 4 turns to deal with things and then we’re quiet with each other for 30, either through a DoF or a gentleman’s understanding.   Somewhere out there a lurker just read this and started chortling or face-palmed.  Stop that!  It is indeed possible that we’re sending the same message with different ideas behind them.  However, since we’re “AI Diplomacy” in this game, it’ll have to do.  For reference with my observations as a lurker on PBEM 4 I think my current preference for diplomacy is AI-only despite its apparent shortcomings.

Having done that.  I take a quick look around up north, nothing’s changed in terms of unit positioning.  On to the matters at hand….




I move my units into attack position, with the only change being the warrior going east instead of southeast because of Ichabod’s warrior.  After movement I have attacks available with the archer, swordsman and warrior.  Archer + sword gives an expected damage of 61 (range of 49 - 73).  There will be a heal of 20 during Kaiser’s turn and then Ichabod could do 79 – 119 if he brings in the horse and backs out the warrior.  That leaves me with the 117 – 175 range, reduced slightly for unit injury, for the final attack.  The archer and swordsman attack now, inflicting a total of 65 points of damage.  Warrior fortifies in place.  I may have to do another "partial" attack next turn to keep the damage range in line with where I need it.  My range midpoint will not be enough to take the city next turn unless Ichabod attacks this coming turn.  I have to try to leave the city at about 90 health or so at the end of my turn.



Circling around to Dalwhinnie the builder continues its trek northwards.  The scout in Glenfarclas is complete.  That heads southeast and will turn east next turn.  I don’t need to find Japan because:



Glenfarclas starts on the campus, shows a time to complete of 35 turns.  Hopefully I’ll be able to speed that up a bit in about 15 of those turns.  The plan is to swap the Tsingy deer tile from Glenkinchie to Glenfarclas once the former's culture takes the tile.

Up at Tomatin the builder chops the forest, putting 64-ish cogs into the settler  (43 + 50% for Colonization).  Settler completes, place the Encampment on the tile at a cost of 117 and it shows an 8 turn completion time.  Settler moves out for the Glenkinchie spot.  Around to the west the warrior is four turns away from Stockholm’s borders.  In the southwest I find the borders for Changing of the Guards.  Based upon the size of the borders this is most likely the English capital.  

In domestic management I switch civics from State Property to Military Tradition.   I’ll let Wheel complete next turn then start Currency, work that for 5 turns and then switch to Masonry.  

Hit next turn and we’ll see what happens. I’m less concerned with Kaiser and more concerned about whether or not there’s now a misunderstanding between myself and Ichabod.  I’ll deal with that when I get the save next turn.

[suboptimal]

Turn 62 Preview

Offline life the past couple of days prevented me from getting to Turn 63 yesterday or getting in a full report for Turn 62 in my usual quick turnaround time.  That report will go up tonight after I play Turn 63.  In the meantime here's the summary which by now is probably old news if Ichabod has posted his turn report:

- There's now a 3-way war in the southwest, with Ichabod having declared war on me.
- I've lost a warrior and had a swordsman black-lined
- I've sacrificed said sword and killed off his horseman
- Time for a strategic retreat.  

- Kikyo's invasion is off.  It also looks like Ichabod won't be able to take that city soon unless he has more troops relatively close to the area.

Details tonight.

[Mardoc]

Details tonight.

I look forward to it!

[suboptimal]

Turn 62

My DoF pondering post got WAAAAAY ahead of myself, much to my chagrin and the lurkers' amusement.  The southwest has become quite the mess.  2v1? Pfft...we're doing things in style this game (or rather, in a hot mess).  It's a three-civ free-for-all:





Heh.  Oh, the 4-for-4 for 30 was for you to have time to take Kikyo, eh Ichabod?  That doesn't do me any good at all.  He's declared war, taken out my warrior and black-lined the swordsman (it's got 1 HP left).  Right.  The conquest of Kikyo is off and The (First) Western War is in full gear.  When this is over we can rewrite the REM song to “How the West was Warred and Where It Got Us”.  For some reason, Ichabod has also re-declared on Stockholm.  

Strategically, Ichabod's war declaration makes sense and, admittedly, is a possibility that I did not give enough weight to in my planning (fake edit: took completely for granted  ).  Chalk that one up to being an MP newbie.  Lesson learned.  The taking of Kikyo is off and it's time to make some lemonade.  What to do?  Well, the horseman is a big problem – a mobile strength 36 unit is a problem, even if I preserve both my swords.  Speaking of which, the 1 HP one is a lost cause – due to ZoC from the warrior and horseman its only option is to move into the Encampment where it could still be attacked by the horseman.  The horseman could be killed off by suiciding the swordsman, moving and attacking with the archer and then bringing up the second swordsman.  That would leave it exposed to archer fire and it might be killed as a result.  Tactically trading two swords for a horse is not a good trade.  It's also probably better for Ichabod in the intermediate term as he'll be able to replace it before I can get more swords down here from Tomatin.  The plan is now an organized retreat from Japanese lands, doing as much damage to the English as possible in the process.  Kikyo has also completed its Encampment – this presents no issues right now as Kikyo does not have walls.  However, once walls are up and it can attack it presents a control of territory issue for Dalwhinnie.

I go with that plan and the horseman dies.  The remaining sword has 75 hit points left, which might be enough to live, but I doubt it.  The archer to the SE shoots at the English warrior to soften it up a bit.  Over at Dalwhinnie the slinger moves out to the iron tile, just in case Ichabod gets any ideas with the scout.  The scout is under 50hp (currently has a strength of 4) and the slinger should be able to kill it easily.  

Over by Geneva my scout is threatened by two spearmen coming down from English territory.  I bring it back to the east – it's now in range of a Geneva warrior that doesn't have much strength left.  If attacked the scout should survive.  Depending on what's around when I get to the east I'm going to try to loop up through Geneva, maybe pillage a mine or campus on the way, then cut north through English territory.  If I come across anything worth pillaging I might do that.  If this results in its loss I don't know that I mind it.  The fact of the matter is that it's so far away from unexplored territory at this point that as an exploration unit it's a but useless.  It's uncovered most of this half of the land mass and if I can get some science, gold or culture pillaging out of the unit before it dies then it's definitely paid back the 30 cog initial investment.

Going around the map clockwise the warrior continues its march to Stockholm.  In the northeast all American units remain in place.  The settler advances and is on-track to settle on Turn 64.  The builder coming up from Dalwhinnie likewise continues its march up and will be in position to harvest the rice right after the city is founded.  In the southeast the scout begins heading east towards Bacchus' presumed lands.  Before ending the turn I change over techs from Currency to Masonry.  Any science pillaging will go into Masonry before Horseback Riding as I'll need walls sooner, rather than later.  

In looking a little down the road at this situation, Japan is pretty much a bystander in this conflict.  Part of me is considering chasing down that builder with the southern archer but the other part of me thinks leaving it alone is probably the better course of action.  There's now bad blood between everyone down here and I'd prefer to have Kaiser/AdrienIer steamed rather than completely pissed off as I'll need Kikyo as the buffer between myself and Ichabod.

[suboptimal]

Turn 63

Situation check:



OK, looks like there’s been a general pull back.  Lost the sword as expected.  Gotta get that archer out of Japanese territory to fall back.  Per the message, “Votre Archer a été attaqué par l’Empire japonais”.  I’m not French but I know that’s not good. Ichabod has also made peace with Stockholm.  Ichabod declared war on Stockholm a while back, made peace on Turn 56, declared war on Turn 62 and made peace on Turn 63.  How’s that work?

The city state I met is Preslav, located over here:



This view is after I sent the scout south to check out the approach to the city-state.  Anyone taking this city is not coming from this direction.

Kaiser is the only one that has met them and they’d like me to recruit a Great Engineer.  Hmmm..that’s not happening.  Also wish I had that envoy now.  This also shows what can happen during scouting – had my scout gone a little further south on its initial pass through here I’d have found it first and scored the envoy and the +2 cogs for units.  That makes 8/10 city states met.

Up north, everything is the same.  Out west I’m not being pursued but it looks like the scout has company from Geneva.  

OK.  One bit of housekeeping in Glenfarclas before moving units – I stop working the silver and go back to working the rainforest for the additional cog.  I’ve got my upgrade money in hand and with 4 less in maintenance I’ll be OK.  

Back to units.  Down at Dalwhinnie I leave the northern archer where it is and take the opportunity for some XP farming by shooting at the Encampment – 21 damage and +3 XP.  The southern one is a bit stuck.  South seems to be the best option – that leaves me exposed to “only” a warrior and an archer, while NE leaves me exposed to all four opposition units.  I move one hex and stopped by the warrior’s ZoC I fire at it.  If the unit survives to next turn I’ll have the option of promoting it.  Slinger fortifies in place on top of the iron.  

In the northeast the builder and settler are in position.  Glenkinchie will be settled next turn.  The warrior continues its approach to Stockholm in the northwest and the scout by Geneva heads due east.  It leaves me open to attack by Geneva’s warrior but I should be able to make a clean getaway next turn (fake edit: it got whacked after I hit next turn).  I have to keep in mind that Ichabod knows where the scout is by virtue of his suzerainty so nothing that I do down here will be a surprise to him.

This conflict has halved my military power score (now around 136 from 226) and it might dip a little further if the archer gets killed.  Rowain, meanwhile, has shot up to 195 or so, probably from horsemen.  Hopefully the numbers don't give him any ideas.  Nevertheless I'll need to get some military builds and upgrades done in the coming turns, along with everything else that needs to get done.

I see something interesting about the minimap.  Here it is after blowing it up using the interface options:



I find it interesting that the map now appears to be roughly centered.  Why?  I don’t know how frequently a pangea map generates a small off-shore island that’s large enough to settle (in my pre-game test map sample of about ten it was zero) but there would be enough room in the NW of the map for such a spot to exist. 

[suboptimal]

Turn 64

First, a look at the south, just to see what’s going on there….



I’ve lost the southern archer, Kaiser has advanced a warrior into the Encampment and attacked my northern archer.  The scout by Geneva was likewise attacked.  This screenshot was taken after I moved the archer back into Dalwhinnie.  From the comfort of the city center I attack the Encampment with a strength of….1.  After looking around at the situation I upgrade the slinger to an archer now so it can attack next turn if that warrior crosses the river.  That happens to get me…



Down at Geneva the scout moves northeast to get a view on the area around the city.  There’s a redlined warrior (less than 10 HP)  blocking my way to the silver mine and an archer two tiles NW.  Fortunately that can’t see me due to the intervening hill, at least if I've got the line of sight rules understood correctly. 

Up at Stockholm the warrior arrives at the outskirts of its territory, adjacent to the Campus.  There is no unit on the tile so I should be able to at least get in, pillage for 25 and get out over the next three turns.

In the northeast things get busy.  Glenkinchie settles on the hill tile NE of Tsingy.  The builder moves up to the rice and harvests it for 54.  That boosts the city to 2 population now, puts 39 “in the pantry” and the city should grow to Pop 3 at the start of next turn leaving 15/33 to get to 4 population but at a -75% growth penalty, so that will be a while.  However, at size 3 the city will be productive enough until Aqueducts come along.  I move my warrior into my newly founded territory, set the citizens to work the one of the tiles next to Tsingy and the forested hill and start a builder.  



The 3.4 and 2.6 is quite nice.    When the city grows next turn I’ll work the former rice tile until the city expands.  I’m hoping that the tile picker will go for either the deer or dye tile.  I’d prefer the deer tile, as the 3 combined with the additional and will get this city off to a fast start.  Once I get the dye tile, however, I’ll swap the deer tile over to Glenfarclas to get more production there.  If, for some reason the picker goes for the stone I’ll probably harvest it as Masonry will be done by then and I won’t need a quarry for the eureka.  

Down at Preslav I have two interesting options for the scout to take.  I can move one hex SE onto a desert hill and travel south of the mountains or go around the mountains to the north.  I go south and immediately regret that decision – it looks like there’s a ring of mountains to the east of Preslav.  Anyone who manages to take this city is looking at a very protected position.



Internationally Kaiser got his Great Prophet and has founded Ruinism.  He’s taken Defender of the Faith and Work Ethic (+1% production per follower) as his beliefs.  I also see that Bacchus is 6/120 on the way to his Great Prophet.  If there’s one gaping hole in my game it’s religion – I did exactly what I wanted tech-wise then got too cute with waiting for the “ideal” placement at my capital.  Now I have no religion, will most likely be third to get one and my intention of using religion as a hammer is in the dustbin, at least for now.  I am giving strong consideration to taking La Venta and/or Jerusalem at some point after my military build-out is complete, probably in the 90’s provided nothing goes horribly wrong by then.  For this aspect of my game I give myself /5.  I will say that if I get the opportunity to play in another PBEM and Arabia comes up as a civ choice I will certainly be giving Arabia another go.

Given my military losses I'm now down to two archers, three warriors and a scout (well, two, but I think one died at the end of the turn).  I'll need to get the military built back up while trying to get infrastructure builds interspersed.  Tomatin will finish the Encampment and build a couple of swords.  Glenfarclas switches from the campus to an archer.  Dalwhinnie and Glenkinchie will complete their non-military builds (trader and builder, respectively) before switching to defense and military (walls and an archer at Glenkinchie).  

Hit next turn, hear the drums of battle and a bell tolling.  I think my scout at Geneva just got killed.