[SPOILERS] Kaiser and TheArchduke are nice and friendly neighbours

[TheArchduke]

Turn 38

Never mind about the gold for a civic change. We are late to the boat party and I need discipline anyway.

Let´s hope Norway does not come round the corner exactly this turn.

   

Tech path is clear, finish masonry, astrology, writing and then cel. navigation.

   

Without discipline my warrior would be dead.

[Kaiser]

Sorry for forgetting to send you the money, it is on its way now.



The bonus was assignet retroactively, which is good, as we nearly finished the HS here.



As assumed, CMF/Russia finished a Lavra last turn and is currently scheduled to get his GP in 29 turns. He probably has another Lavra on its way in his 2nd city, so he will be likely quicker.

We should now consider if we want to race for 2nd religion or not. I would guess Roland took Coral Music and DoF, Crusade or Tithe as first pick. So I expect the price of 2nd religion to be:
- Work Ethic
- DoF / Crusade / Tithe (whatever Roland did not take)

If we decide against racing, we would still have Feed the world and the 3rd choice available.

Racing would mean running GP projects in TB and Miln for 14 GPP each (~50 /each). We would likely need 3 projects (2 in TB, probably including the chop). I doubt that the shrine would be a help considering the high likelyhood of a 2nd Lavra. The expected success of racing is low if CMF can finish his 2nd Lavra quickly.



Some settling options, I want to move onto the G next to the mountain next and then decide from there.

International News:
- Llubljana/Phoenicia tech#5
- Roland/China -
- MPTF/Australia 3 era
- TAD 3 1 empire (pop)
- Kaiser -
- CMF/Russia 1 empire tech#5
- Suboptimal/Indonesia -
- Woden/Vikings -

[TheArchduke]

Well damn.

There was a good chance that my warrior could have killed the archer.

I did not see a chance to flee really.

   

[Kaiser]

That is tough, hopefully the Scout will not block the Settler next turn, as we already start falling behind a bit. I am holding off finishing my turn as I want your feedback, let us check the turn first and then my question.



We have quite a choice of Settling spots here. Settling on the coast will give us the possibility of building Navy later on, but lacks production as far as we can see.
Settling inland gives a better city overall, but might invalidate other spots (which are rare, it might actually be 4 cities per player on the starting islands)

I would like to try to play my next turn together to decide where to settle, we can move the Warrior first to get some better vision. Probably he moves onto the Marsh to see the SE.

International News:
- Llubljana/Phoenicia 1 era
- Roland/China founded religion (so Prophet moved over to other city I guess, probably he founded religion in his 2nd city)
- MPTF/Australia -
- TAD 3
- Kaiser 2 Empire (HS)
- CMF/Russia 4 empire (very likely 2nd Lavra, we have been consisted 2 turns slower to our HS than CMF to his Lavras, this could be based on us not finding the Astrology Eureka but they did)
- Suboptimal/Indonesia -
- Woden/Vikings -

here is the save

[TheArchduke]

I do not think settling inland is a bad idea.

You mean SIP? Sounds legit.

[Kaiser]

So here is the reason I am holding the turn for the moment, we really need to decide this turn if we try to grab 2nd religion or if we are content with third.



Our capital finished its HS and could now:
- run a HS project or build a Shrine to go for religion
- build a builder next to improve Cow, chop Campus Forest, connect pearls/go to 3rd city
- build a Monument to get quicker to Political Philosophy.

Here is why I think this is a big decision, I had a look at my city sites and their production capabilites. Nearly all cities only get 3 tiles where I can build increasing improvements quickly and a re very limited in total production.

I am guessing that Roland has picked Choral Music to spread his religion to Indonesia and help her to get to her special unit fast to dominate the seas. So I am hopeful that Work Ethic might still be available.

Let us have a look, the key is:
- 4 point star = Lumbermill
- 5 point star = mine
- 6 point star = Lumbermill on jungle (Mercantilism, renaissance era)



TB

Has 1 Lumbermill in 1st ring and 1 Mine in 2nd ring. 
Basically needs to buy the two 3rd ring forests and build Lumbermills there to get to 4  tiles. 
Has 2 mine locations 3rd ring which can be shared with Miln and probably 3rd city.

That is a total of 6 tiles, considering that all our tiles are 2  we have no need working any food tiles like the cattle or any farms as long as we are running no specialists. That means TB is capping its productivity quickly at size 7 as the PHJ is also a decent tile (we could consider turning it into a mine to exchange 1  for 1

Total expected output of TB at size 7:
- CC 2 + PHJ 2 + 3* GHMine 2 + 3* GFLumbermill 3 + Palace 2   = 21  
This gets 3  increases at Appreniceship -> Industrillization -> Steel (+6 as it also improves JLumbermills)
Mercantilism lets us work 2* PJLumbermills and improves our PHJ by +2  

Most of these techs come relatively late outside of Apprenticeship, the order will very likely be something like this:
Apprenticeship ~T80 => Mercantilism ~T120 => Industrilization ~T150 => Steel ~T180

This is really low in terms of production, getting Work Ethic would bring TB 3  , 6 with the double adjacency card. 4 / 8 when the 3rd adjacent district will be build. That is a 15% / 30% later then 20% / 40% increase on



Miln

Is even worse off, it has 2 PHJ and a GHQuarry 2nd ring and the shared GHMine with TB 3rd ring. It also has a DH we can mine, but that will be bad tile all game long.
There is one place for a potential PJLumbermill later and I think we need to keep it for that else it would have been a decent spot for an industrial district (yellow outline).

Total expected  output of Miln at size 5:
- CC 1 + 2* PHJ 2  + GHStoneQuarry 3 + GHMine 2  = 10  

The HS would bring 2 / 4, later 3 / 6 when its 2nd district the Campus will be finished. That are 20% / 40% and later 30% / 60% increases. Even with a WE HS here this city is never going to be very productive.



3rd

Another very low  site. It is not yet decided where to settle, but  will be of utmost importance here. From what we see now, there are:
2* PHJ 2  + 3* PJ 1 (one we might settle on) and the shared GHMine with the capital (maybe 2 depending on where we settle)

This place will be even lower in  than Miln but has possibly great HS adjacency sites (the marsh would be +4 from the get go). 
Expected Work ethic production increase ~100%



4th

The pinnacle of desolation is this place, as it can only sustain a population of 2. 
I think we need to move it onto the cotton to have a decent  site. However we do not have a way to feed this city outside of "feed the world", which is a counter argument to "Work Ethic" and rushing.
In any case this city needs the Volcano to go off and add  yields to its tiles, sadly this will destroy the resources and forests on 3 of its better tiles. Many tiles are 3rd ring, so expensive to get.

Expected Work Ethic production increase ~20%
Expected use benefit of "Feed the World", huge as it is basically necessary until the volcano adds


Rush next GP possibility:

CMF eta GPP
T36 1st Lavra (+2)
T38 4GPP (finish 2nd Lavra => +4)
T39 8GPP
T52 60 GPP after me in turn order is his latest finish date

Japan eta GPP
T39 1st HS (+1)
T41 2 GPP (finish 2nd HS => +2)
T43 6 GPP +13 GPP Project in TB finishes 
T47 27 GPP + 2* 13 GPP projects in TB and Miln finish
T51 61 GPP

The total investment would be 42  per project, so 126  with a high risk of failing as CMF needs to run only 1 roject: himself or build an early shrine by latest T46 so we cannot overtake him. 
We could chop the forest into one project to improve our eta, but then we would invest even more into it. It is basically the only option I see to get there on time.

What do you guys think? 
Be content with Feed the World or give this gamble a shot?

[Kaiser]

TAD told me it is folly to race Russia to a Religion with a 3rd Settler already out. Infrastructure it is instead, let us look for a place for City#4 and decide where to settle City#3

[Kaiser]

The Warrior revealed 2 more productive tiles, so SIP it is. This delays placing the HS until Irrigation or BW, but we also have the option of buying the tile SE of the Marsh for it and get a better Campus on the Marsh.

Darn, I forgot to send you the money again, sorry TAD.

International News
- Llubljana/Phoenicia civic#3, 1 era
- Roland/China 1 empire, tech#6
- MPTF/Australia -
- TAD -
- Kaiser -
- CMF/Russia -
- Suboptimal/Indonesia 1 empire, 2 era
- Woden/Vikings -

[Kaiser]

As expected, China went for Choral Music over WE, which now is likely picked by CMF.

I was a bit unsure about what to build at Miln, but seeing that the Horse is already taken care of and it has its Monument, it is going to build a Settler. I am hoping here to find another spot than the one in the N still on our starting island, but I also know thanks to TAD that Shipbuilding is not to far off lruking behind Writing.

International News
- Llubljana/Phoenicia 6 era (NW/new continent combination?)
- Roland/China -
- MPTF/Australia 1 empire, tech#3
- TAD civic#4 (EE), tech#5 (Masonry)
- Kaiser 9 empire score (new city, HS, pop)
- CMF/Russia -
- Suboptimal/Indonesia Settler for city#3
- Woden/Vikings -

[TheArchduke]

Turn 42

Stone harvest into a new boat, 1 hammer away from finishing.

Going to establish a 3 boat navy for NW, NE and SE. Trader, then agoge slingers and campus in all three cities.