The German War

[SevenSpirits]

So we still haven't seen the german stack since the war started?

I wonder if they have changed their mind and are moving it to face WPC, under the logic that it can actually accomplish something there.

[kjn]

Nope. Last we saw it (on T149), it was located mainly 1SE of Webringen, and contained 10 axes, 6 cats, 4 chariots, and 2 spears. They've probably added some more units to it in the meantime (like the mini-stack we saw in Wipperfürth/Helm's Klamm on T150, and new production).

At a guess, they will move at least the chariots towards the WPC front - they are quite useless against maces and war elephants, but should still be somewhat useful against WPC's stack.

They've also moved their galley out of Wismar. Not sure if they plan to counter-attack Huron River with some units in it, but WPC has visibility on it, and it's not our trouble. If they land north of Simple Life, we have maces in the area as well.

[mostly_harmless]

Total losses in the war so far:

RB:

1 war elephant (8k) [60h]
1 mace (9k) [70h]

Total 17k [130h]

Germans:

3 spears (12k) [105h]
6 axes (36k) [210h]

Total 48k [315h]

I often prefer the comparison of hammers instead of power. 1:2.5 ratio, not bad!

[T-hawk]

Well, the real question for war gains is whether we acquire more hammers worth of stuff than we lose. Want to keep track of it that way? Wasserburg is worth 100 hammers for the city (settler) plus 30 for the granary.

[scooter]

Well, the real question for war gains is whether we acquire more hammers worth of stuff than we lose. Want to keep track of it that way? Wasserburg is worth 100 hammers for the city (settler) plus 30 for the granary.

That doesn't seem like a worthwhile comparison to me - it's a number that doesn't really tell us anything. Well, measuring the hammer trade-off is more about measuring killing efficiency than gains. But if you really want to measure gains, you need to factor the land too right? You're not just gaining 130h there, you're gaining all the hammers/commerce it will produce over the next X turns. Unless I'm misunderstanding you?

[Mardoc]

Well, the real question for war gains is whether we acquire more hammers worth of stuff than we lose. Want to keep track of it that way? Wasserburg is worth 100 hammers for the city (settler) plus 30 for the granary.

That doesn't seem like a worthwhile comparison to me - it's a number that doesn't really tell us anything. Well, measuring the hammer trade-off is more about measuring killing efficiency than gains. But if you really want to measure gains, you need to factor the land too right? You're not just gaining 130h there, you're gaining all the hammers/commerce it will produce over the next X turns. Unless I'm misunderstanding you?

To be really precise, we should measure the value of the gains compared to the next best use for those hammers in our empire. The new city vs the market or tundra settler or courthouse or whatever that we gave up on the margin. And include the details like a drafted mace costs less than a hand built or whipped one, and that we had to spend the hammers on military many turns before we gain the benefits, and so on.

Similarly, the value of razing a city is the improvement in how we can spend our next 100 hammers (on a settler for the site) compared to how we'd otherwise have spent them.

Also, the goodwill we gain with WPC, and the value of deterrence on Apoly/CFC/etc.

I don't think any of this is actually possible to measure . It's worth counting up the various costs and profits, to inform our intuition, but there's no way we end up with a number that tells us if war was a good decision. Heck, it's tricky enough to decide if a horse tile or a cottage tile is better!

[kjn]

Well, the real question for war gains is whether we acquire more hammers worth of stuff than we lose. Want to keep track of it that way? Wasserburg is worth 100 hammers for the city (settler) plus 30 for the granary.

+++Divide by axe error. Please reinstall settler and regrow.+++

[kjn]

So, do the Germans have any other army to speak of, beside their stack around Warendorf?

From APTmod, I get a German power value of circa 440k, and their power from tech, buildings, and population is at 118k, leaving circa 320k for units.

Unit type	Power	Amount	Total power
War elephants	8000	4	32000
Catapults	5000	14	70000
Axes	6000	13	78000
Spears	4000	4	16000
Chariots	4000	4	16000
Galley	2000	1	2000
Sum			214000

So we have at least 100k, probably 110k, in units unaccounted for.

Checking my notes on prior power tracking, I think they have a few more axes (at least four more) and chariots (at least five), which would come to circa 44k. Add in four more war elephants, and we're at 76k, leaving some units for garrisons. If there are four elephants with some ancient units for numbers in Webringen, then we have no chance of taking the city with our two-moves only

[kjn]

Bah. The Germans have only 7 visible catapults (I accidentally opened the same screen shot twice), removing 35k from the known German units. So yes, I think it's likely that they have a decent stack in Webringen.

[kjn]

WPC have moved their northern stack. Their units east of the cows were joined by a chariot. Their other stack moved north. Yes, north. I am feeling a little exposed.

At least they explained their reasoning, even if I'm not sure agree with it.

From WePlayCiv:

The Germans were planning an ambush for us. A scouting move by our cahriot discovered another stack hidden behind Warendorf.

So, west of Warendorf:

7 cats, 1 elephant, 2 chariots, 2 spears, 7 axes

Warendorf

1 elephant, 2 chariots, 2 axes

South of Warendorf

4 cats, 1 elephant, 1 chariot, 6 axes (including deepwater Helm, Fonte Rande Helm, and Der Falke Helm)

That totals:

11 cats, 3 elephants, 5 chariots, 2 spears, 15 axes

Rather than get chewed up outside of Warendorf in clear terrain, (or a move 4 which also left our stack exposed both this turn and next), we have opted to try andsplit the defence. Our main stack is moving north, and then west toward Wesselburn.

Our secondary stack will stay where it is (the desert tile just east of the cows), unless they move on it in force, in which case we will try and draw it into our territory. We have lots of reinforcements coming up, so we are not worried if they try a foray into our lands. In fact, it would problem shorten the war if they did.

At any rate, we have probably drawn most of their army north, so 'go to town' in the south.

If they move to defend Wesselburn, we will adavance on Warendorf. If they don't, we will take it and the other northern city while still working to pin down the bulk of their forces around Warendorf.

Your chariot can either move north with our stack, or back to the desert tile with our secondary stack. Your call, but I would prefer he move north. We have lots of reinforcements coming in from Great Plains, but the big stack will not be receiving any.

That's it from our end. Will end our turn in a few hours.

That puts the known German army at 11 cats (55k), 5 elephants (40k), 5 chariots (20k), 19 axes (114k), 4 spears (16k), and 1 galley (2k), or 247k. That leaves 70k for garrisons in other cities and a secondary stack somewhere.