[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Turn 191 - Part 1

Sanity check:



I didn't get a notification, but sub seems to have accepted my desperation lux deal, so I beg for your extra dyes. And then, the total cost for 7 votes is 0 + 10 + 20 + 30 + 40 + 50 + 60 = 210 favor. If I give you 138, you will have 210 exactly. That leaves me with 344 - 138 = 206, lmao. Thus:



I am interpreting suboptimal's generosity as indicating two things: one, they actually read my deal, and two, they actually have some lingering positive feelings for us. So I will try to buy one extra vote from them for 40 gold. I don't know if it will work, but they will have 3 votes either way, and I think this 10 gold per favor is good value for them. So why not try?

Well, maybe because I should try to buy from Bruindane instead? They could perhaps use the gold a bit more, and since they play first in the turn order there is less of a chance that this will screw up any vote coordination that they might try to do. But somehow my read is that Bruindane, as the player with the more competitive empire, will be a little less likely to help us out just for the fun of it than suboptimal, who might see good "screw over our gamelong enemy" value here.

[ljubljana]

Turn 191, Part 2 - Phoenicia

At Cuneiform, I did the best I could to keep my little screen of caravels protecting your rear, while also dropping one sacrificial caravel fleet in front of your line to block an IC double-attack against one of your unpromoted IC:



If one of those two IC it is adjacent to does get double-attacked (so, if one of those IC dies and you don't see a frigate), then you will know that they killed this caravel with a frigate, which must therefore be within two tiles of its position here

Undecided about more P/S builds vs ships in the core now. Cuneiform had a mostly-finished ship in queue, so I'm finishing that now, but longer term, I'm not sure. They are still spending their faith on...something, and it could be more Cossacks here. In fact, I think it is probably more Cossacks here and a giant wave is going to show up in 2t or so. Luckily I will have 4 promoted corps and a few extra stragglers by then, but I still think maybe another round of P/S is best. I sure would save a ton of cash by dropping Grand Armee for conscription...but perhaps that should wait until we are sure I am safe here.



Pillaged a fishing boat, killed a chariot, shot at Illmatic and Rodeo, and got ready for a possible Rodeo attack next turn. I did leave a small hole in the back of the line so that I could both get the fishing boat and have a little more flexibility with my good caravels next turn - that double-promoted caravel in the upper left is the only one in range of various critical tiles near Rodeo, such as the one due west of the city. Maybe privateers will show up and punish that decision, but that wouldn't be disastrous (most likely they would just get one injured caravel and one injured frigate), plus I think it's fairly unlikely that too many privateers are in range.

Not really sure what approach we should take in attacking Rodeo. Do we form just a straight line from the city to the NW island and try to scout our rear for privateers? Or do we surround the frigates with a wall of IC and caravels? Neither would be perfect, as the wall would still allow for some sniping possibilities, and I doubt we can get all tiles in range via scouting. Luckily we have some time to decide thanks to the WC turn...

I also took a nice, dramatic shot of your fleet heading off to face its destiny, for posterity's sake



And the pride and joy of Phoenicia on its last desperate ride:



Onward to glory! Onward to Cuneiform!

[ljubljana]

oh yeah:



For a long time, this city stayed loyal because of an enormous, and really quite baffling, positive value in the "other factors" column, which was something like +12 or +14 when last I checked. But it is gone now, and with one city gifted to China and three cities propping up Australia, we are fast approaching a world in which Russia will have gained literally no territory from their Indonesia war

edit: btw, Australia still has no coal saved. So unless there is a deal waiting for them from williams, they will not be able to upgrade an IC this turn even if they get SP. They are probably, like, one turn away from the tech at this point, but we only really need one more turn to do enough damage to Rodeo's walls to make the attack viable. It will be close but fingers crossed, that city would go a long way towards loyalty-bombing LET which will be in range of only The Blueprint if we can take it (College Dropout and Sevastopol are both one tile away iirc).

[Woden]

What are your thoughts of waiting the 2 turns to get Destroyers? Thought I would ask for your thoughts, I am not sure if it would be better or not. The benefit would be being able to drop the extra coal card for the upgrade card and be able to upgrade a few more ironclad fleets. I wouldn't have to worry about a maintenance penalty and my GA could get to the frontline. The cost would be that he would have battleships. The strength difference is 15, which is enough to over come his promotions but then the GA wouldn't apply (but would the battleships). What are your thoughts?

[ljubljana]

That is a good question...if we don't commit now to waiting for destroyers, we won't be able to upgrade them mid-fight as you need to decide on upgrade card vs coal card this turn. I guess we should see what they do this turn before deciding. If they attack you, maybe they will kill enough IC that it will be safe to drop the coal card after you make your attacks. If they upgrade to battleships next turn, no reason not to wait. But if they retreat and don't upgrade, I am not sure...

What is your current coal shortfall, by the way? It is not much but I can contribute one coal per turn from Fort Lakton starting next turn, at least...

edit: Also, your timing for CA is your t193, right?

edit2: What is the fastest civic research that you have available? Not that we really want to delay the urgent Modern/Atomic civics, but if it's the only way to get the upgrade card slotted and still attack before williams gets BS, it could be worth consideration.

[Woden]

Yes, it will be T193. The fastest for my next civic finishing is 5 turns (or T196), the time I have left on the Neighborhood at Frigg. It will also take that long to get some of the cultural pillages at Japan. Mobilization I think will take 6 turns with pillages. Another consideration is that I am pealing off 2 ironclad fleets that are/were protecting the IZ at Loki next turn. One gained a promotion killing a privateer that a single one from England came across traveling to Loki to relieve the a fleet and the other one will be replaced by the one that was coming over from England. They can be where my fleet is located in 2 turns. As for coal shortage, I was break even last turn but also put out a single ironclad, so will be short 1 coal next turn (maybe not as the coal plant is first to lose the coal) but I am also finishing another fleet at Thor next turn. I could merge 2 singles that are near Loki and forgo protecting the Shipyard at Thor, but I think I also have a new ironclad coming out of Hod or Balder (the north of the 2 cities). That one is going to pillage the harbor at Oracle Bones for upgrade gold. If I merge what I can, I will probably be 1 short.

One last consideration, I will need to upgrade at least 7 ironclad fleets to make up for dropping the resource card. Not sure if I will have enough gold. There is a lumbermill at Illmatic and lighthouse and harbor at Oracle Bones. That should be enough. There might also be a harbors and traders along Australia's west coast but no idea how hard they will be to get at. If we can get a few pillages from there over teh next 3 turns, we should be able to upgrade a bunch more...but that is also getting close to the heart of Russia and I doubt it is unprotected.

[ljubljana]

Okay, so probably not a disaster if we stay in the coal card this turn to try to catch them before they upgrade, then they upgrade anyways. We will still get destroyers before them, just not by as much. And yeah, if you merge everything I can start sending you my one extra coal to get you to break-even.

Destroyers cost 540 hammers, and IC 380, so I am estimating roughly 160 gold per upgrade = 320 for a fleet in the discount card. This doesn't always seem to be exactly true (bireme - caravel was 180 gold for a 175 hammer difference? quad - frigate was 165 gold for a 160 hammer difference?) but it should be pretty close. I think you would just about get your 7 fleet upgrades, and can maybe get a couple more depending on pillages and the gpt you get from swapping to Democracy.

Oracle Bones will be a free city starting next turn though - is pillaging the harbor after it flips considered an illegal pillage? I don't really know, although if williams did pillage the Hieratic campus it seems like they do not think so. Perhaps a lurker should weigh in if anyone wants to.

[Woden]

[attachment=23726][attachment=23726]Turn 191-Vikings start
Oh boy! What we decide to do this turn will most likely decide the game. Russia did finish Refining (or at least a tech) and spent a bunch of gold. Here is how the northern front looks...
   

He is staying out of range and don't think I could reach anything but also he can't reach me. I was trying to see if I can get closer to Asahi, risking him spotting and he did...
   

I think it was kind of a mistake but also a blessing if we want to wait for destroyers because these ships are now at least 2 turn from my main fleet. 

Over by Australia...
   

Nothing new but a sandstorm popped up and is heading NW, so my units are safe. I can hit the pasture and start moving towards Rodeo this turn. 

One complicating factor is that Russia has boats that will pillage my coal mines at England/Japan...
   

My field cannon is dead and would have taken at least 4 or 5 privateers to kill. Next turn, I am going to be short of coal and there is nothing I can do about it. I was worried about this as I brought my ironclads over to Australia but I think it was worth the risk if we can pressure them there. I figured I had a little more time but he must be pushing those out pretty fast. 

Finally, if things are not complicated enough, look what I found...
   

Totalitarianism has to be my next civic, right? Fascism is too good to delay. 

I think the writing on the wall is pretty clear here. We wait for destroyers and upgrade as many as we can. With a lot of boats by China, I think we can get them before he can reach us. I also have an ironclad at Japan's capital that will come out next turn and another that was getting sent to relieve a fleet at Loki that can turn around and look for privateers around Japan/England. I just don't see pushing up right now a feasible option, what do you think?

[Woden]

Also, I am probably not going to be able to play until late tonight, so don't expect the turn for a while.

[ljubljana]

Yes, Fascism for sure IMO. Good thing we found it, since we will actually beat Russia there by a good margin. With your coal going to get pillaged, yeah, I think we have little choice but to wait for destroyers.

What in the world did he spend all that gold on? It is way too much to just be battleship upgrades, especially with 2 visible frigates. I wonder if he purchased a few battleships? At 1700 gold per ship it is not the most efficient use of gold. Good for us that he did that instead of waiting for the WC, with its possible 50% discount to unit purchases.

Getting a bit worried about our odds in a straight fight...if they bought more ships they probably have a similar number of battleships to you, and their ironclads are probably fewer but better promoted. I definitely think we need some kind of edge here, probably a first strike with destroyers and not just one or the other. What does their coal look like this turn? If they want to keep Buyniy to stay out of the coal penalty, they will have to come back and retake it in 3t. That might be a good time to attack him. At least if your ships are in position to attack if he retakes, it might make him back off.

Also, did Russia hook up any oil? Maybe some of their spending is on submarines like you envisioned.

Do you think you will take Illmatic next turn? I think I will have to leave it with 20 health if I am advancing on Rodeo. That should be enough for your IC to kill it but maybe not if they upgrade an IC fleet inside. That might mean foregoing the lumbermill pillage but probably worth it, and at least you can get the horse this turn. We cannot wait much longer as once my ships go off to Rodeo I will not be able to keep the health down, and while I think you should be able to do 20 damage to take the city, 40 is more dicey and 60 probably out of reach.

Also, yeah, I will need to use your IC fleets as a wall again to help protect my ships if we are doing Rodeo now. I will try to put together a screenshot of the position we want at Rodeo, but basically I am thinking we should keep them in a line and advance as far as you can, roughly to the line NW of the stone. I am pretty worried that we are advancing prematurely there and will run into privateers, but we have little choice as there will be possibly subs and definitely Australian ICs there in a very short amount of time.

edit: Waiting for destroyers means going into the upgrade card this turn and dropping the extra coal, right? They will get a big flashing "attack now" sign if we do that as the eastern ICs will have a big penalty. But as long as we scout well and don't leave any ships where they can reach them, I think we should be okay. Though they may use the turn that we upgrade to conquer Cuneiform...

edit2: If they see the penalty and advance, you could respond by buying a policy swap to get the coal card back. Would that get rid of the penalty immediately or would you have to wait a turn? The answer determines whether it is really safe for them to move up or not. I am going to pay close attention to my ICs this turn to see if they come out of the penalty, which will tell us part of the answer, though not all of it as my coal supply will go positive at the start of the turn rather than mid-turn.