[Spoilers] Pindicator accepts his fate

[pindicator]

Summary of what I think people are doing as I figure it out. This post will be edited as I catch up on C&D

NylesStandish: grew to size 2, building settler. Went Mining -> BW. Assuming he's trying to rush us to the spot between us, just like we're doing.
DTG & picklepikkl: grew to size 3, most likely building settler at 3 (with similar tiles he would have hit size 4 this last turn). Tech was Hunting then Wheel (there are only so many 92b techs to choose from).
Gawdzak: grew to size 3, first tech was probably Ag but maybe Wheel, and now he's doing BW, because anything else would be done by now.
OT4E: just hit size 4, tech went Hunting -> Mining.
gsorel, DMOC, & Ichabod: Exact same thing as NylesStandish: grew to 2, now likely a settler at 2. Tech was Mining -> BW.
Borsche: grew to 2, building settler now. Tech likely Ag (eot9) -> Hunting (eot17)
dcodea & TBS: grew to size 3, first tech was Ag, nothing since so likely on BW now.
Elkad: has yet to grow above size 1. So .... worker -> settler? Wow. Tech is Mining and then I think BW, which he just got on t23.

[pindicator]

Turn 024

Raiders spotted! Warn the village wizard!



I wonder, could he potentially whip his settler and beat us to the spot? So if he is in fact 2 turns behind us, then his settler is sitting at 45/100 right now. He'd be able to whip in 3 turns, finishing eot27. If he also started chopping last turn then he gets his chop in next turn and can whip on t26. Which is the same turn our settler finishes. Considering we're going to have roads in place to settle t28 and his worker turns will be spent on chopping trees, I'm feeling confident that we still win that race.

What if he decides to rush the capital with the warrior? Since he didn't do a direct rush, we actually are closer to his capital with our warrior than he is with his, so we could win any race -- and make him blow his chop onto a unit. Second, if he does rush our capital, we will be able to finish the settler and have time to 2-turn a warrior, which finishes right before his warrior can take our capital.

Anything I missed? Otherwise I'd say we're looking really good here.


EDIT: Oh, C&D news (since I caught up on all that stuff yesterday).

• Elkad grew to size 2 last turn. What!? But yes, it's true! He must have opened worker -> settler double worker. And when I did my catching up in C&D I discovered he moved his city to the coast; he only has 15 tiles in his BFC.
  
• wetbandit & ipecac grew to size 3, and finsihed Bronze Working.
  
• Gawdzak finished Bronze Working
  
• dcodea & TBS finished Bronze Working
  

[Commodore]

Nothing can possibly go wrong now!

[Thoth]

Nothing can possibly go wrong now!

[pindicator]

Hey, there's still plenty of time to screw things up! Which I don't think I've done this turn...

Turn 025

3rd ring borders popped! But aside from a few ocean tiles in the southwest I had already mapped out all the tiles.

I think concepts of initiative and time are often over-looked (or at least, under-reported) in these games. I dabble in chess and in a setting where both sides are at material equality it can really show how important both initiative and time can be. They can easily be worth more than a piece, in the right situation.

For instance, I'd say our warrior here is roughly worth 1.4 warriors.



So the right move is to push our advantage now, while we have it. Moving our warrior up will force him to retreat his warrior back further to the capital -- or perhaps it will force him to flip the capital's production off a settler, but I don't think we can count on being that lucky.

Just to make sure it was safe, I did move the worker up to the hill and started a road there. If I had spotted an animal we'd be covering the worker with the warrior and Nyles would still be able to keep his unit in place. Also, we had a forest growth on the route that the settler is supposed to take - but got very lucky because it is the only place a forest could have grown that doesn't slow our settler down. Just 2 more turns now!

Something that got my attention last turn: why did Nyles move his warrior to that forest hill to begin with? It wasn't to map the tile; he had already run his scout by there. It wasn't to threaten our capital; it's off the direct route. My guess is that's where he wants to settle -- does it mean that copper is in that area?

C&D

• Land points for everyone except Elkad. 12 more tiles for everyone, which I know from the turn 5 demographics of land tile totals.
  
• Gawdzak joined OT4E in growing to size 4.
  

[pindicator]

Turn 026

So Nyles once again retreated his warrior back.

And that's really all we need folks. The settler finishes end of this turn and will settle in 2 turns; his warrior cannot reach the pink dot tile in time from its current location. Plus that lion on my borders moved towards my worker and if I continued forward with my warrior there was a possibility of the lion causing trouble. With that in mind, I moved my warrior back, and finished the road on the sheep tile with my worker.



I'm still toying with the idea of settling Commodore's "Neon Pink" location... but probably will stay safe with the sheep plant.

Unfortunately we're about to use up our free barb win with our scout in the south. Here's what we've managed to map out with the scout so far



Still no neighbors but NylesStandish

C&D

• Elkad got land points for 9 tiles (15 total for him)
  
• dcodea grew to size 4
  

[pindicator]

Forecasting some future tech times, and I'm not really thrilled...

Mining (7t) - finishes eot33
BW (12t) - finishes eot45

[Commodore]

Gist of my feelings:

But this is a totally winnable duel!

[pindicator]

Turn 027

Nyles whipped his settler to completion at the end of his last turn, putting him down to size 1. If he's had the same tile yields as us then last turn I'm pretty sure he had to chop in order to get a whip in at this point -- which gives him considerable overflow for whatever his next unit is. Basically, we're hoping that there aren't copper tiles directly under the capitals, otherwise it's game over for us.

In happier news, we should settle the game's first city next turn:



After flirting with the idea of Agriculture next, I decided to play it safe and just beeline BW. Mining in 7.

Scout survived last turn with no damage. Bye bye safety net.

C&D

• wetbandit grew to size 4.
  
• NylesStandish whipped to size 1 in his capital (t26)
  

[pindicator]

Turn 028

Turn rolled before I went to bed, so let's plant a 2nd city!



Archer due in 7; when borders pop we'll move to the 1f3h deer tile. Then a worker, hopefully...

And if that wasn't big enough news for you, you'll love this



EDIT: Miscounted; it's actually 15.

It'd be nice to get a city SE of that deer...

C&D

• gsorel/DMOC/Ichabod grew to size 3. 10 turns between size 2 and 3; they're IMP with BW inbetween -- looks like they chopped a settler out at 2 and should be planting a city themselves any turn now.
  
• I think Nicolae Carpathia teched BW. If that's right his opening was AH -> BW