December 19th, 2011, 13:24
Posts: 5,800
Threads: 56
Joined: Oct 2010
At the start of T105
8 'phracts on the hill between Love Hina and Code Geass, but only 3 of them fully healed. Hit points and promotions on the screenshot
3 'phracts in Air Gear, all below 50% health
1 new 'phract who will get to the hill this turn
2 new 'phracts who will move to Air Gear this turn
Several more 'phracts in production - I'm not ending the war right now
I didn't attack T105, but moved one of the 'phracts to pillage the road 1N of the hill / 1SE of Love Hina. His 1-movers now cannot go from city to city in 1 turn. The rest is still on the hill, waiting for an opportune moment
December 20th, 2011, 20:10
Posts: 5,800
Threads: 56
Joined: Oct 2010
On opening the save for T106, I got no less than 4 diplo screens
* OB with Mackoti - I still don't see a reason why we would want them. He's quite far away, we're not interested in scouting him. And he still holds TGLH, so he still benefits from trade routes more than we do. I would decline
* 2g from NS7 - I would accept, why not
* Iron for iron trade with NS7 - again, why not. If they want to hide iron from their resource trade screen, I'm happy to help them do so. Don't see any other reason for such trade
* 2 cities to NS7 for world map and some resources - I have no idea why they offered this deal, I even checked with Seven it was a real offer, not a bug. The cities he asked for are the holy city and the Moai city. He can take them from our cold dead hands. Decline
Then I opened the turn log, and oh wow, that's a lot of things happening
Quite a few changes in relations between empires. Here's the current foreign advisor screen
That's a lot of wars going on. Luddicator is at war with everyone except us!
Looks like NS7 took Scientific Method from Liberalism. Funny to see it on the same turn we discover Paper
Now, there were quite a few 'phracts dying. Sian decided to get out of his cities and make famous last stand. This is the current battlefield situation
He killed 6 'phracts, and the remaining ones are on low health. But his units are on low health too
On the tile with Mace and 2 Pikes, Mace has 2.7/8 health, both Pikes have 0.3/6. Even the 3.7/12 'phract has 85% odds on that Mace. I would take this attack
On the tile with 2 Pikes and 2 Workers, one Pike has 4.9/6, the other 3.7/6. The 7.2/12 'phract has 2 promos saved; once promoted to Combat I/Shock, he heals to 10.8/12, and has 86% odds on the healthier Pike. The remaining 'phract, the one with 9.2/12 health and Flanking/Sentry promotions, can take out the remaining Pike and capture the Workers (can't check the odds, but he has over 50% survival odds on the healthier Pike, so I'm sure it will be 75-80% on the more wounded one). Thanks to his 2 moves, he can then move back onto the hill to avoid being killed by a city garrison unit. Workers will have to be deleted. Then we can move 5 'phracts from Air Gear onto the hill, and I think we once again will have a chance of taking a city next turn
Finally, in the north I had a Chariot trying to sneak in and pillage the iron. Now that Luddicator's units are advancing, I'm not sure it's a good idea
The Chariot has very little chance of surviving on the iron, and leaving it in the vicinity could make Luddicator suspicious that we're trying to steal his city capture. Of course, his units don't look strong enough to take the city, unless it's undefended. But I don't want any potential conflicts, and Impi with their Mobility should be able to pillage this iron for us. I would move the Chariot away and send it on suicidal scouting mission; it's living on borrowed time anyway, as I fully expected it to die after it razed the city of Silver Moon
Nicolae, Lewwyn, any thoughts? This is a difficult turn, I'd like more opinions on the situation please
December 20th, 2011, 21:36
Posts: 4,831
Threads: 12
Joined: Jul 2010
yuris125 Wrote:* 2 cities to NS7 for world map and some resources - I have no idea why they offered this deal, I even checked with Seven it was a real offer, not a bug. The cities he asked for are the holy city and the Moai city. He can take them from our cold dead hands. Decline
Do you think Seven expected you to take that deal?
December 20th, 2011, 22:12
Posts: 3,918
Threads: 14
Joined: Feb 2011
Haha, what the hell. This game confuses me. I expect it to last another couple of months before we get eliminated by NS7, so I await the summaries.
I'm scared of Catapults, I'm pretty sure Sian had some in the north, so if he brought them south and massed up pikes, our Phract stack would be straight up gone. Luckily we're only damaged, though he made some good trades this turn. Agreed with killing those Pikes on flatland with Shock Phracts.
I say move the scouting chariot forward. If someone is taking Idolmaster, it's not us. And if I were Luddicator and not capable of taking Idolmaster, then I'd leave the Iron unpillaged, as we're obviously relying heavily on Phracts while he's relying on Impis, 1-movers and siege. So I say move forward and try to guarantee the Iron gets pillaged. Luckily the turn order is Us --> Luddicator --> Sian, so his units should cover our chariot.
December 21st, 2011, 04:26
Posts: 5,800
Threads: 56
Joined: Oct 2010
Ceiliazul Wrote:Do you think Seven expected you to take that deal?
No way. He made a few strange diplo offers this game, I look forward to finding out why he made them after the game
Thanks Nicolae. Agree with moving Chariot onto iron regardless of Luddicator's units
Re NS7, they're not very strong in military. They made a deep beeline to SciMe and probably Communism (their poor people won't even know about economic models other than State Property). But their military force is Maces and Cats. They don't have Monarchy -> Longbows and Knights are not available. And they don't have Gunpowder yet, so no Muskets. The scare of their military mostly comes from Galleons, if we can counter that threat, we should be ok
December 21st, 2011, 04:49
Posts: 3,918
Threads: 14
Joined: Feb 2011
Also, I vote for killing the Mace/2 Pikes stack instead of the 2 Pikes/Worker stack. Sian is limited by Military right now, not units. Best to take easy shots while we can. Because I can guarantee you Sian's units can take 1 or 2 promotions, else they'll heal behind city walls. Fortunately, I don't think any of his units are up to 10xp and can take Formation, that would be nasty.
Finally, it may be worth sticking solely to Shock promotions, as they work on the offense and defense. I've read reports that that Flanking promotions, while they lead to a greater chance of survival, don't guarantee landing nearly as many hits. I dunno, I'm not sure about the maths on it. What do the lurkers think, Shock vs Flanking?
December 21st, 2011, 05:12
Posts: 5,800
Threads: 56
Joined: Oct 2010
Nicolae Carpathia Wrote:Also, I vote for killing the Mace/2 Pikes stack instead of the 2 Pikes/Worker stack. Sian is limited by Military right now, not units. Best to take easy shots while we can. Because I can guarantee you Sian's units can take 1 or 2 promotions, else they'll heal behind city walls. Fortunately, I don't think any of his units are up to 10xp and can take Formation, that would be nasty.
We're killing the Mace regardless. The question is, which Pikes to attack. I prefer the healthier ones. The ones with 0.3 health can be killed next turn, even behind city walls and even if they take a promo to heal to... 3.1 health I believe
Nicolae Carpathia Wrote:Finally, it may be worth sticking solely to Shock promotions, as they work on the offense and defense. I've read reports that that Flanking promotions, while they lead to a greater chance of survival, don't guarantee landing nearly as many hits. I dunno, I'm not sure about the maths on it. What do the lurkers think, Shock vs Flanking?
Agree, don't think we need more Flanking 'phracts, and they didn't prove their worth so far
December 21st, 2011, 05:30
Posts: 3,918
Threads: 14
Joined: Feb 2011
Another thing, get a Galley whipped in Laodica instead of working on the Bank, it's better to have slightly more logistics capability than necessary, and that Great General would be of better use on the mainland. Plus, we have 3 workers stuck there, who could be chopping Jungle. In fact, the islands should also be contributing military via whips, and shuttling off Phracts to the mainland. Because let's face it, they're going to be the first cities to die once NS7 turn on us.
Also, Laodica was working a 2/0/2 ocean instead of a 2/0/3 coast. Pass the spices tile from Thessalonica to Amorium. Get the tile 88 and 3 of Amorium farmed as well, that city is not getting cottaged, it has too little food. Right now we want hammers, at the cities of Angora, Iconium and Thessalonica, switch tiles from Colossus coast to Grass mines. Dorylaeum needs its forge whipped, and overflow onto a workboat to improve the clams.
Should we tech Theology, and do some civics swaps? We'll lose 2-4 commerce/city if we go Mercantilism, and gain some in scientist specialists. We should also look into getting a source of Great People Points, we've been really neglecting them.
Finally, be warned, I spot 4 Egyptian galleons. They scare me.
December 21st, 2011, 08:48
(This post was last modified: December 21st, 2011, 09:13 by yuris125.)
Posts: 5,800
Threads: 56
Joined: Oct 2010
Nicolae Carpathia Wrote:Another thing, get a Galley whipped in Laodica instead of working on the Bank, it's better to have slightly more logistics capability than necessary, and that Great General would be of better use on the mainland. Plus, we have 3 workers stuck there, who could be chopping Jungle. In fact, the islands should also be contributing military via whips, and shuttling off Phracts to the mainland. Because let's face it, they're going to be the first cities to die once NS7 turn on us.
Strongly disagree with this. We won't win the game with military, at least not right now - NS7 and Mackoti have too high power. Thus, we need at least some cities working on economy. The island cities with its lush tiles are the best candidates. And didn't we agree not to worry about NS7's threat? If he attacks us, we're dead, whether we worry about it or not. I think not worrying is the better option
Nicolae Carpathia Wrote:Also, Laodica was working a 2/0/2 ocean instead of a 2/0/3 coast. Pass the spices tile from Thessalonica to Amorium. Get the tile 88 and 3 of Amorium farmed as well, that city is not getting cottaged, it has too little food. Right now we want hammers, at the cities of Angora, Iconium and Thessalonica, switch tiles from Colossus coast to Grass mines. Dorylaeum needs its forge whipped, and overflow onto a workboat to improve the clams.
All done
Nicolae Carpathia Wrote:Should we tech Theology, and do some civics swaps? We'll lose 2-4 commerce/city if we go Mercantilism, and gain some in scientist specialists. We should also look into getting a source of Great People Points, we've been really neglecting them.
Since we're teching Economics, I would wait with civic switch until Free Market
Nicolae Carpathia Wrote:Finally, be warned, I spot 4 Egyptian galleons. They scare me.
Yes, me too. But I think they're going Luddicator's way. And if they're not, it's gg, wp - nothing we can do. I'm actually inclined to sac Colossus and go for Astro and Chemistry after Economics, because we need some kind of navy, and Triremes won't cut it against Galleons
December 21st, 2011, 15:44
Posts: 5,800
Threads: 56
Joined: Oct 2010
With wars breaking out last turn, the power graph gives a good insight into how the game is going to develop
Fierce is dead. I mean, I lost his graphs, because I'm spending EPs on Sian, and we don't have any Courthouses yet. But he's on two cities, and way behind in tech. Someone will inevitably grab them without too much effort some time soon
Sian is dead. Once he loses his iron, he won't have the counter to Cataphracts. Idolmaster is defended by 1 Logbow and 1 Warrior at the moment, they could fall to 4 Impis, and if it happens, he won't even be able to reconnect the iron. His death will be delayed because he has island cities - but he's dead
Luddicator is... well, almost dead. They have a lot of cities, and actually are 2nd in score. I know from PBEM19 that Luddite is a very good tactician, and I think he could've hold against one major power. Against two... don't think it's likely
We're living on a prayer. If NS7 and Mackoti leave us in peace for the next 25-30 turns, we will tech to Nationalism, Astro and Chemistry, then draft like monkeys while getting out Frigates, and should be able to build up respectable defences. If not - well, we'll do our best to not die instantly
In any case, whether we survive or now, NS7 will utilise their economic advantage (early State Property) to outtech everyone and win. Of course they don't have State Property yet, but I will be surprised if it doesn't hit within the next 5 turns or so
A gloomy forecast. We'll see if it comes true
|