(September 3rd, 2013, 09:03)WilliamLP Wrote: Lurkers: Just to make sure, the second player in a turn split isn't allowed to use promotions the following turn if they are logged in when the turn rolls, and it would be considered a double-move, correct? (And presumably auto-promote cheese would be ruled out too?)
As far as I've heard, manual promotions are not allowed but auto promotions are.
This is a bit of a precarious situation since you can't get your axes back to Barbiere in time right?
EDIT:
Sorry, re-read. You'll be hitting his stack if he moves there with 'only' 5 axes. You could consider going in with the archers first so that we should be able to keep our axes. More risky of course. I'll do a graph reading if you post so we can see exactly how many axes he has.
From the power graph it looks like those 5 axes are all we'll see. He probably has another spear out there + 3 archers + 2 warriors so we should keep the Quechas fortified up just in case.
The margin of error on the graph is increasing though,....and the last reading with the fuzzy edge of the graph is always a little questionable.
T48 there was a whip followed by a 3K power increase on T49 so that could be an archer or a barracks. Probably a barracks unfortunately, so we'll need one of those for ourselves soon.
Retep missed T46 as you mentioned. Looks like that was a 4K-Spear so can't imagine that that miss didn't help us.
So Retep razed a Baccus city while sending all of his axes our way! Wow that worked out pretty well for him. T48 was the city raze so whatever troops he used to kill the city could be seen soon depending on his roading.
That looks like a 5K power drop for Bacchus so he presumably lost a warrior and an archer. No power drop for Retep unfortunately,... The only silver lining there (and this is a stretch) is that we're seeing all of his axes, so he must have killed the city with spear or archers, so we shouldn't see any CR axes soon.
T44: Axe + Archer (1 unit from whip)
T45: Axe
T46: Spear?
T47: Axe
T48: Flat power,....same turn as the Bacchus raze. Could have exchanged gain/loss.
T49: +3K Barracks/Archer. (unit/barracks from whip)
And he's grown his capital to Size 4 while doing this and roaded up to Barbiere? This is some pretty decent production that he has. (That fog-of-war Size4 is legit right?)
So where exactly are you planning to put that settler in 4T?
Thanks for reading into the power graph, it's helpful.
Yeah, the pop inside the fog of war is always legit, by strange telepathy. It's why it seems good to see people's capital tiles once if you can.
I have no idea where the settler goes in 3 turns. I think it depends on what happens in the next couple of turns.
Borders in Barbiere pop in 3 turns, after 3 moves by Retep in this screenshot.
The turn should roll any time now. Whatever happens I'll post a screenshot and wait 8-12 hours before actually playing the turn, to think about it.
I'm reluctant to ever attack an axe at full health with an archer, because an archer has a large bonus in a city and/or on a hill, so is more useful as a defender. And there's also a 10% chance of 0 hits, and a 20% chance of 1 hit (according to Cyneheard's spreadsheet), so it's highly RNG dependent and if we get a few of those terrible rolls the archers are just literally thrown away.
If he tries to worker road into 2-tile move, I think we can actually do this:
- Defend the city with 4 archers, 2 quechuas.
- Hit the C1 axe on the stack with 1 axe from Barbiere. It's a 32% chance to win, but highly likely to do damage.
- Capture the 2 workers with the 4 axes on the hill!
I think in this scenario, capturing the city is basically impossible - we have 6 defenders in there and he has 6 attackers, including the warrior. Recapturing the workers is also unlikely. He has to beat 4 full strength axes with 4 axes and 1 wounded axe to do it. I'm guessing we have a 80-90% chance to hold that, and even if we don't, what he has left will be very wounded and archers can clean it up. And capturing 2 workers is huge, a gain of 120 hammers by us and the same loss for him.
So I'm actually hoping for this right now, and that we don't get terrible rolls.
Why attack out with the Axe against the C1 axe? Attack or defend its the same odds but we lose a bit of flexibility by not having 1 extra axe than he has.
The other consideration is that Retep could attack first with the warrior to soften up an archer for better odds of victory with his axe. The axe would take some damage and then probably defer defense to the archers. This is probably want we would want for a counter-attack. Retep probably wouldn't start the attack with a warrior vs Axe.
Next city:
I know that this may be a party pooper but I'm going to suggest settling ON THE SILVER. Its a painful loss of commerce, but that will be a monster production city at all stages of the game. We can decide right here and now that our Heroic Epic will go there.
Plains hill sheep to get the terrace built; wet wheat for early growth. Good food + cows + sheep for early production. Monsterous hills for mid-game and levee powered late game monster production.
Strategically, I'm a little nervous that Retep roaded that 1W of spice tile so that he can plant 2N of the wheat. If he did that it would invalidate any 'south of river' city plants for us giving him a nice path of hills to walk up to our city that's not on a hill. Also, we'll have the option of backfilling our West/NW only if we have one city West of our capital. That one West city will mean huge vunerability for him if he tries to settle west of it.
In the near-term the worker requirements to get this city up is basically just the plains-hill sheep up until we whip out/build a terrace anyway. River takes care of the connection and we instantly hook up the happy.
Regarding that silver city site: we could plant an axe and/or archer on the plains-forest-hill 2N of Retep's wheat to mitigate the possibility that he's thinking of settling there. That would buy us some time or force him to plant 1 s of that location which I'm ok with and allow us to stretch to the gold-corn site. I really, really don't like your proposed marble city at least at this stage in the game.
The other thing: I imagine that you're aware of it, but I'll point out anyway that you're starving Barbiere.
Last, if you executed the plan that you're hoping for:
-4 Incan axes SWW of Barbiere
-5 Retep axes + 1 Retep Warrior SW of Barbiere
-4 Incan Archers + 1 Axe + 2 Quechas inside of Barbiere
I would say that its remote that Retep would take a stab at Barbiere with our 4 axes in plain sight. Most likely he'd beat a retreat followed up with some chance that he takes a stab at our 4 axes. We can counter-attack that so its not a terrible outcome and we'd likely keep his workers. I now see why you're thinking of attacking out with the Barbiere axe. I still don't think that you should do it, but I understand why now.
SO LIKELY RETEP WILL RETREAT. I think that he'd likely retreat across the river SSW of Barbiere for safety given our numbers advantage.
IF this happens we're 2 turns away from his capital with workers while that 5 axe stack is 4 turns away. We should definately send our axes to take a peak at his capital. He may have his other units at the second city or still out harassing Bacchus. Worse case, we beat a retreat home along the forests.
Alternatively, in 3T we could on that hill NNWW of his capital looking around for his city #2. His axe stack likely still wouldn't have reached the capital at that point and we'd have a go at his #2 culture-less city giving our axes good odds against anything that he'd have in that city. Almost certainly he planted for copper so a little bit of pillaging and those 5 axes are all we'd see forcing him to build archers against our Quechas.
Keep forgetting that Retep's protective. Probably not worth it. Also, Retep could turn around and take a stab at Barber 1T before we get culture in there I think? He could turn around and attack at end of T54 and our borders come in at the start of T54?
Let's just see what happens.
AND,....retep's borders are popping soon anyway. Can't remember what turn you said but probably next turn. That might make us more vunerable.
Yeah, Barbiere is starving because it needed exactly 5 hammers to 1-turn an axe after overflow. It will go back to the corn now.
(September 4th, 2013, 09:21)MindyMcCready Wrote: Why attack out with the Axe against the C1 axe? Attack or defend its the same odds but we lose a bit of flexibility by not having 1 extra axe than he has.
In that scenario, it's so we could keep his two workers! Otherwise five full health axes has a decent chance of winning four battles against four axes on flatland.
Quote:SO LIKELY RETEP WILL RETREAT. I think that he'd likely retreat across the river SSW of Barbiere for safety given our numbers advantage.
He just plain retreated. I don't know if it's telling that he just went SW, and not W-SW.
Jowy got an extremely early Oracle, much faster than we could have. So he must have marble extremely close, either in the capital or maybe 3-4 tiles away where he could settle on it and immediately chop the wonder out. There's a technical issue related to it apparently , so the game is paused, and might actually need someone like T-Hawk to hack it.
So I haven't played the turn, and certainly won't for at least 8 hours, and maybe even longer.
With our axe finishing, we're actually ahead in power!
I'll consider the rest of your points and reply soon. My feeling is that our next city should be for horse.
We can't be too aggressive moving axes away from Barbiere because he could be roading that "staging" tile now, and at any given time he could be a couple turns away from hitting the city.
I thought his borders would expand this turn - the second pop is 100 culture, a capital generates 2 per turn, and he settled on turn 2, so 50 turns later is turn 52. But I forgot about the anarchy turn, so it will be next turn.
West horse too dry and dangerous; east horse too dry,....you're talking about that south-eastern horse again, aren't you? 1NE of the Horse I presume?
Well better start moving an axe + archer in that direction this turn or you won't be there in time. Build a second settler to my bridge location and you'll be connected via river as soon as you plant I think.
Looks like Retep's gone builder mode. If we can road that plains-forest-hill tile we can move an archer or 2 to the other plains-forest-hill tile unexposed and delay the silver site. If we force him to build it 1S I'd be happy.
We'll probably come to blows with Ichabod over this, be very hard pressed to defend that site, and we'll be highly exposed to opportunism from Retep if that happens. My first choice would be to forego the horse for awhile in favour of food-commerce-production; build a few spears; cross fingers that Bacchus gets back on his feet and crowds Retep while we secure our west and east as future fill in sites.
That West most mountain all the way to 1N of the sheep would be invalidated as city sites if he lands that location. This is why I'm saying that we might be giving up our entire West to retep just to plant a city that will bring us to blows with Ichabod.
