[spoilers] Pindicator and Regoarrarr - Bismark of Ethiopia

[regoarrarr]

Don't forget sooooo!

And, playing past midnight?!

Right! Gotta blame a few of those on him

I was up late last night because the NCAA decided to make the Bearcats game start at 9:55 . That 4 a.m. alarm clock came AWFUL quick

[regoarrarr]

Okay turn has rolled. Cyneheard got a tech, which seems like maybe Fishing, since he just finished Mining on T11. He already has both Mining and Mysticism which are the two "50" beaker techs.

I COULD log in and see if our warrior lived, but instead, I'll calculate the odds of his survival.

The first warrior will attack at 3% odds (2 vs. 3.5 on our forested hill)

He has 16.4% of winning flawlessly, 24% to get 85HP, and 22% to leave with 70 HP. That's 62% odds of having enough HP that we'll still be favored to win the 2nd battle.

All in all, adding up the probabilities, we have a 57.4% chance of surviving both the warriors. And if we do survive, then we should get 2XP and be able to promote to heal partway.

[Kyan]

Hey guys, i'm still around. Been in the hospital (see my XX thread for picture of reason why ) and this thread just updates far too quickly for me to keep up to speed on my phone.

[pindicator]

Kyan, glad to see you back and I hope everything is going better for you.

The hut is JUST out of the range of when we would not get barbs (boo)

This turn could have gone better...



Demos



So now does losing our only warrior affect the plan? We're going to be running an unescorted settler if we don't slip a warrior build in. But it's only on one tile, so maybe we throw caution to the wind (again)?

[regoarrarr]

Grr. I was thinking this morning that we might be able to adjust the plan if we lost our warrior. We'll need to double check the sims, but I was thinking that if we change the plan where we delay the chops to come on the same turn.

So instead of having them come on the same turn, we keep them coming 1 turn apart (by not putting in a turn of mining from Adam before he chops), we have the first chop come in and finish the warrior, and the 2nd chop the next turn along with the overflow go into the settler. I was hoping we could still get the settler out the same turn.

It would delay that 1st workboat for sure, but hopefully not terribly too much. Of course with our current luck it will end up being at 99/100 on the settler

[regoarrarr]

Global soldier count went up 2000. I wonder if Cyneheard could have gotten Hunting? He settled on T1 and got Mining (79 beakers) on T11.

He could have been swapping his research around to mess with C&D work (he's definitely of the type to do it). And if we figure he was building a worker, there's no real need to finish either of those techs until the worker was born.

Of course it's possible that someone built / popped a warrior.....

The other annoying thing about us being top power is that now anyone paying attention to demos will know that we lost our warrior

[regoarrarr]

Okay so I messed around with some sims and I don't think that we can get a warrior out without delaying the 2nd city. The good news is that I think we are safe, at least from barbs. We shouldn't have any barb humans yet, right?

Because of the way the terrain works, I don't think that we should be at risk, even from 2 move barb animals



On T27, the worker and settler are both on the grass hill (that is now forested but by then will be mined). So we should be able to see if there are any barb animals out and about. We do have a bit of risk if there are any players out there, but I guess I say we go with it.

We could move our worker 2S onto the plains forest tile, but that's riskier due to the fog. Actually we may want to adjust our worker movements based on that.

Here's the demos now



GNP of 27 has to be Ceiliazul who is CRE and working on Pottery with both pre-reqs. Did you grab a demo shot last turn to see if it was 27 then? Otherwise it looks like he swapped mid-tech?

[regoarrarr]

You can see that I swapped over to the worker to catch the chop. We will whip it next turn.

Also the other good news is that everyone is still at size 1 (but Ceiliazul and us). So it looks like everyone else went either for another worker or right into a settler.

And to paraphrase Sullla from my PB1 thread "Fear our 9 units of food!!!"

[pindicator]

GNP of 27 has to be Ceiliazul who is CRE and working on Pottery with both pre-reqs. Did you grab a demo shot last turn to see if it was 27 then? Otherwise it looks like he swapped mid-tech?

I grabbed the T18 demos but I guess I didn't post. Sorry, I'm going to use my head cold as an excuse as to forgetting; GNP was 23 when I logged in to view the state of our dead warrior.

Here are those t18 demos:

[regoarrarr]

Here are those t18 demos:

So.... I guess Ceiliazul must have swapped techs then? It's not that crazy of an idea. I can't see how anyone non CRE would get a GNP of 27. Even a CRE (size 2) civ has trouble.