WW #41. New Horizons.

[Gazglum]

Adrien, why do you think Novice is the Earth Firster among the Brick voters?

[Lewwyn]

Sadly a Serdoa + Glum-pair doesn't work with Lewwyns reveal.

Serdoa + Adrien does work.


So AdrienIer as the one who fits with Lewwyns scan, Lewwyns theory (glum+Adrien) and with Bacchus points about Serdoa.

True I'll look into Serdoa more.

To be clear I'm not voting for Gazglum because he's not a Brick voter. One of Zak, novice and Adrien is scum so I'm sticking with voting for one of them today. Don't go chasing waterfalls. For me Adrien is the current front runner.

[Gazglum]

Summarising the info we have:

Either Rowain and Adrien are both lying about Rowain's alignment, and so they are the scum pair. Not that likely.

Otherwise:

ONE OF Adrien, Zak, Lewwyn, Novice are scum.

ONE OF Gazglum, Serdoa, Bacchus are scum.

Or Lewwyn is scum paired with ADrien/Zak/Novice, but then he ran a big risk of being counterclaimed by another sensor, so I'm discounting that.

Given that, I will reread Serdoa and Bacchus as well.

[Lewwyn]

Summarising the info we have:

Either Rowain and Adrien are both lying about Rowain's alignment, and so they are the scum pair. Not that likely.

Otherwise:

ONE OF Adrien, Zak, Lewwyn, Novice are scum.

ONE OF Gazglum, Serdoa, Bacchus are scum.

Or Lewwyn is scum paired with ADrien/Zak/Novice, but then he ran a big risk of being counterclaimed by another sensor, so I'm discounting that.

Given that, I will reread Serdoa and Bacchus as well.

So you have better odds of hitting scum if you are a villager and we lynch one of Serdoa and Bacchus. Additionally, Serdoa and Bacchus have those odds as well.

The issue for me is that I'm still left with a 1/3 either way.

[AdrienIer]

Adrien, why do you think Novice is the Earth Firster among the Brick voters?

I like the way Lewwyn revealed his night action and zak's play recently. I don't think zak+Serdoa works and with one of you Bacchus and Serdoa scum I'm liking Serdoa more. I've never played with him before but Rowain says leaving fake suspicions is in character.
I can't reread properly for a few hours but if Bacchus and Zak feel clear I'll be voting novice or Serdoa today

[Bacchus]

On Adrien's claim.

It was not only ill-thought regarding the choice of target because of sensor reasons, it was doubly ill-thought because Serdoa announced he has code redirection during the day. After Rowain owned up, it makes complete sense for a townie to redirect to him -- you lose nothing, and you potentially avoid a night kill or any other negative ability. The worst that could happen is confusion, in case someone launched a tracer, which then traced Rowain, but all you have to do to stop confusion is announce right away, which is what Serdoa did. In fact, makes no sense for anyone to target Serdoa after Serdoa's original announcement and given Rowain in the field.

This brings us to the whole "riskiness" of Adrien's claim. Adrien only had to be afraid of the watcher, not of tracer, as tracing Serdoa made triply no sense: he was likely to redirect, he wasn't on the lynch, he wasn't seen as strong town. So what of the watcher? If Adrien is scum and took part in the night kill, the watcher is going to confront him anyway, adding a fake-claim doesn't really worsen the position. In fact, because of this, it makes sense for Adrien to take part in the night kill -- why risk compromising a scum who is so far in the shadows, if you already have a guy who will pop on the sensor.

This was a bit convoluted, but hopefully clear. I don't think it was particularly risky for scum-Adrien to claim as he did.

So, options:

AdrienIer + Glum -- already discussed
AdrienIer + Serdoa -- already discussed
Glum + Serdoa -- only works with a framer ability, the possibility of which hasn't been brought up yet as far as I'm aware, but why not?
Serdoa + Lewwyn -- or of course the "sensor" himself could be crooked, whilst hedging against a genuine sensor result.

On that last, I've spoken a lot about Serdoa, so I don't think adding is useful at this stage. I haven't commented on Lewwyn's constant fingering of me during D1. I didn't, because it just didn't make any sense, nor did it appear that important, just usual prodding for answers. But now I see that Lewwyn didn't even pose any questions or comment on what exactly he dislikes. His substantive substantive remarks limited to this:

I think this sticks out to me:

Maybe I'm failing to see something here, but the whole exchange between Serdoa and Zakalwe reads unnatural, if authentically aggressive.

Which felt like placing blame on both parties, followed by your post where you subsequently back off both of them and try to change the topic over to goreripper. Felt like a subtle manipulation. put the pair on the spot then back off and try to change the subject.

Though I do think other posts feel a bit legit. I'm interested to see if other people have a different perspective on it.

Which is pretty weak, as I pointed out in my response, but does bring me on to:

Serdoa + zakalwe -- as I said, their original exchange didn't strike me as particularly authentic, but there is little else to go on here.
Glum + zakalwe -- pairs starting from this, inclusive, are all increasingly speculative.

Cross-posted a bunch.

[AdrienIer]

Why don't you mention novice ?

[Gazglum]

Ok, sorry to hurt Bacchus' head more, but I'm going to pour out some stream-of-Glumness

I think a key point to cracking this game is that the scum are going to have been terribly afraid of the Sensor ability. Fair enough, its really unfairly powerful. That would make sense of scum having used their roleblock to try and stop it last night (either on me or Zak).

End of Day 1, the KEY consideration for scum would have been to get at least one vote on the lynch, because getting 4 cleared villagers would be game over.

As Day 1 got towards its crunchy end, it looked like this:

Lynch votes
4 votes: novice (Rowain, AdrienIer, zakalwe, BRickAstley)
2 votes: BRickAstley (novice, Bacchus)
2 votes: AdrienIer (Goreripper, Gazglum)
1 votes: Bacchus (Lewwyn)
1 votes: Zakalwe (Serdoa)

>Serdoa, Bacchus and I switched to Rowain, but Novice still led, 4 votes to 3.
>Lewwyn switch to Novice, making him 5 votes and looking in a lot of trouble.

Lynch votes
5 votes: novice (Rowain, AdrienIer, zakalwe, BRickAstley, Lewwyn)
3 votes: Rowain (GAzglum, Serdoa, Bacchus)
1 vote Adrien: (Goreripper)
1 vote Brick: (Novice)

Note that one of the voters on Rowain HAS to be scum according to the sensor calculations, and I think the other scum is on Novice.

At this point, Adrien comes in and sees Novice looking set to hang. But he changes off:

Sorry guys this weekend is far busier than I expected it to be. I agree with novice that Rowain is probably third party, even if he isn't actually pro-town. As Lewwyn points out it doesn't mean novice is town.

Gazglum is tunneling a bit, which is not unusual (and he has a history of misjudging Rowain). I didn't like BRick's start but he disappeared. Goreripper is full of irony :

But worse is very uncharacteristic lurking AdrienIer

I guess I'm back on BRick ?

So, Novice might not be town, but Adrien will vote Brick anyway? The target of his target? When your original target (NOvice) looks set to hang?

This post looks all kinds of bad. But I already said scum would want to be on the lynch, and we know that one of the scum is on Rowain. So it would actually be a poor move for Scum Adrien to move off Novice here. It opens up the possibility of the Sensor clearing all Novice voters.

> Rowain votes Brick, Lewwyn votes Brick. I don't think either of them are scum. That makes the votes:

Lynch votes
Brick 4 (Novice, Adrien, Rowain, Lewwyn)
Novice 2 (Zak, Brick)
Rowain 3 (GAz, Serdoa, Bacchus)
Adrien 1 (Gore)

I think either Adrien is the scum, or there were no scum at all on Brick at this point. Serdoa, Bacchus and myself were all elsewhere.

If those 4 Brick voters were all town, then the scum team risks blowing everything by having Brick hang and a sensor clearing the voters.

At this point Zak votes Brick, for no stated reason, putting the hammer down on the lynch.

The most likely scenario, to my mind, is that Zak is scum, and he was smart enough to know that he HAD to be on that lynch.

SO now I am looking at Zak/Serdoa, Zak/Bacchus, Adrien/Serdoa or Adrien/Bacchus in about that order of likelihood.

It is possible that Novice is the scum on the Brickvoters. But if he was, I would think that Serdoa or Bacchus would have tried to raise a 3rd party candidate to save Novice. But it was Adrien, Rowain and Lewwyn who all rushed over to Brick and saved Novice's bacon, and none of them can be paired with Novice (except Lewwyn lying about everything, and I don't buy it).

[Bacchus]

Why don't you mention novice ?

No read on him. My point was to present the pairs I have some sort of read on, not a combinatorial list. Besides, that was just done concurrently.

I also don't mention Lewwyn + Glum -- and have no idea why, really, just not something at the front of my mind.

[Gazglum]

Bacchus, I see what you mean about Adrien's play being bad. The thing, I think Adrien made a mistake either as town or scum. As town he picked a bad target for his scan. As scum he risked leaving Novice open to a sensor claim.

Unless, as you say, Lewwyn really is lying about his sensor result. If it was Lewwyn/Adrien, Adrien would want to get off the Novice wagon so they weren't doubling up. That would make sense of Adrien's weird move Novice>Brick.

In fact, it would be low risk for Lewwyn to claim the sensor because he would KNOW that there was only 1 scum on Brick - himself. He wouldn't even need to be a sensor.

So I guess Lewwyn/Adrien is possible after all.