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Mardoc · May 1st, 2011, 16:10

Sciz Wrote:i just noticed that the Lanun "theme" in the game is from the song "The Mariner's Revenge Song" by The Decemberists, starting at 4:55. I've listened to the decemberists for a long time and like them a lot but I never noticed until now

Uh anyways I posted this in here because you're the only Lanun topic I can post in. Go Lanun and stuff!

Thanks! I'll have to go listen to that one.

In other news, Nyktorion found me this turn:

Nyktorion Wrote:[COLOR="Lime"]Dear Mardoc,

it is my pleasure to finally meet you in-game; a hawk of mine has established our contact this turn.

The Ljosalfar already have quite some history behind them. I have had Bannor cities settled quite aggressively against me (the second Bannor city - Vallus/Pink Dot - was 10 tiles from their capital, straight into our direction), and as a consequence, I had joined Thoth in conquering the Bannor empire. Still, I am aware of the tremendous growth of the Malakim empire, and that they might just be running away if we don't watch it.

With WarriorKnight having his world spell in reserve, Irgy being behind WarriorKnight, and myself having another good defensive world spell, plus some troops left from my conquest of the Bannor empire, I believe that this leaves you as the most attractive next target for Thoth. However, WarriorKnight, Irgy, and myself are currently discussing how we could stop a possible runaway Thoth (and in particular prevent him from just swallowing you, and thus becoming unstoppable).

Concerning immediate things we can do to benefit both of us: what do you think about starting with an open borders agreement?

best regards,
Nyktorion of the Ljosalfar[/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]Thank you for establishing contact; that leaves Irgy as my last uncontacted civ.

I'd also be interested in hearing more about the world as a whole; with my restricted contacts, my information on the world has mostly been what Thoth and Mr. Yellow have told me; I only heard recently that the Bannor had done anything aggressive at all, for instance, aside from potentially being able to launch a Crusade and being vulnerable.

I agree that Thoth is the elephant in the room, and that he makes me quite nervous. With him having cast his World Spell for cultists, that makes my empire quite vulnerable. I have an NAP with him until T140, but am currently building an army for deterrence purposes anyway. I would be happy to discuss potentially more effective means of securing my northern border. I expect this discussion to be held secret from Thoth (usually a good assumption, but I feel it's worth clarifying anyway).

At the same time, precisely because of Thoth's power, I'm not interested in engaging in anything unilaterally or poorly coordinated, or small; I've been simultaneously trying to tie him down with peaceful exchanges that would hurt to give up, and if we launch a failed dogpile attempt, I'm sure I'm the one he'd punish first.

On a happier note, I would be glad to open borders with you. I'd also like to discuss possible resource exchanges; I have both Pearls and Pigs in excess, or will shortly. Feel free to check in game for other likely trades that I may be forgetting about. Mana loans also tempt me; I have acquired Sun mana in addition to my palace water, air, and chaos mana.[/COLOR]

There's not much new going on in game aside from the Elves finding me, but I'll endeavor to post more tomorrow anyway.

Mardoc · May 1st, 2011, 19:06

So, what am I thinking about Nyktorion's comments? Well, our positions in game naturally drive us toward cooperation instead of competition. And Thoth is running away, it seems. There's very little reason for him to sell me out, and lots to gain from working together. Bringing down #1, when you're #2, is naturally what you want anyway.

On the other hand, apparently he told Mr. Yellow that he was building an army to stop Thoth, and instead used it to take the land for himself. So just because he's talking nicely doesn't mean he'll come through for me. I need to get some means of verification if we combine for a war against Thoth. Basically, here's the main risk of cooperating with someone who believes in realpolitik - they've got no reason to play nice with you when it's not in their interest, so you've got to consider all the angles, including the one 'what if they use that dagger in my back?' For that matter - the best outcome for Nyktorion would be a bloody stalemate of a war between Thoth and me, knocking down both #1 and #2 while he grows his forests and cottages.

And, lastly, a purely selfish perspective - if Nyktorion, WK, and Irgy attack Thoth without me signing on, do a lot of damage but are fought off...well, that would leave me at #1. And universally trusted. With Thoth in between me and them. If I understand the situation right, just about everyone remaining has equivalent land - but I also have the island to take, which would put me ahead, so I don't need a war to stay in this, so long as Thoth doesn't pounce on me. Conversely, the perspective of 'need to keep Thoth from swallowing you' might let me use my weakness as a negotiating tool - with the potential dogpilers, anyway. Obviously it won't keep Thoth from Tsunami'ing all my coves and coastal improvements or taking a few cities before the alliance stops him.

It can't hurt to keep talking and get more details from both sides, though. And to remain honorable, I'll keep both conversations confidential and honor any deals I actually make (as opposed to just discuss). I need more information, regardless, and it would probably be a good idea to make sure I have Optics researched at the latest by T140 so I can Rage the Seas. That certainly won't protect me on its own, but as an additional tool/force multiplier, when most of what I care about is coastal, I ought to have it available.

DaveV · May 2nd, 2011, 09:10

Being neutral, or trying to play both sides, takes an extremely delicate touch. The most likely outcome is that both sides will end up mad at you. Trying to be honest is usually the best policy; you could tell Nyktorion you're afraid to build a small or medium sized army for fear of provoking Thoth. You'd prefer to wait until you can build a big army in a hurry (i.e., after you settle all the cities you can and build them up to productive status). In the meantime, you're willing and eager to engage in trade and to share information.

For Thoth, the best line is similar: you aren't in a position to build military units but will honor your NAP even if he has to strip defenses from your borders, and you aim to continue to make yourself useful to him. The tough part is if Thoth really seems to be gaining the upper hand; you'll need enough flexibility in your agreements that you can take a more active role against him.

Mardoc · May 2nd, 2011, 09:50

DaveV Wrote:Being neutral, or trying to play both sides, takes an extremely delicate touch. The most likely outcome is that both sides will end up mad at you. Trying to be honest is usually the best policy; you could tell Nyktorion you're afraid to build a small or medium sized army for fear of provoking Thoth. You'd prefer to wait until you can build a big army in a hurry (i.e., after you settle all the cities you can and build them up to productive status). In the meantime, you're willing and eager to engage in trade and to share information.

For Thoth, the best line is similar: you aren't in a position to build military units but will honor your NAP even if he has to strip defenses from your borders, and you aim to continue to make yourself useful to him. The tough part is if Thoth really seems to be gaining the upper hand; you'll need enough flexibility in your agreements that you can take a more active role against him.

Yes, this makes sense. Honestly, my basic stance is pretty well what I told Nyktorion - I would love to take Thoth down. IF and ONLY IF we can set it up in a way that assures success (defined as enough damage to Thoth that he can't invade me). Otherwise it's too much of a risk for me at this point in the game. And what I really want to avoid is the eastern civs causing me and Thoth to fight without themselves getting involved. For the time being, I'm planning on building at least some army and settling quickly (aka pretty much what I had been doing already), and which way I jump will depend on what details are shared with me. The last I'd talked with Thoth, he was expecting an invasion from just Nyktorion, and he had 'surprises' ready for him in that event. If it turns into a 4v1, then yes, I'd expect Thoth not to be able to handle it. Even a 3v1 is probably enough, if it's serious.

The good thing about using Cultists for culture everywhere is that I have the ability both to Drown warriors and build OO units everywhere in an emergency, or in a last minute ramp up for war.

I think I can probably manage neutrality - you're right, honesty is the best way to do that. I don't think I can manage playing both sides off each other, I'll have to pick one eventually.

I will still be building at least a modest army, chariots and Stygians and cultists, and maybe hopefully also a couple mages or catapults or something collateral-like. Thoth will expect that from me, even if we remain at peace. And I do need less on defense than offense. But since he described to me a primary cause of the Bannor war to be opportunity to hit an underdefended enemy, it's pretty clear that I need to be NOT an underdefended enemy, and that's out in the open.

The last time I brought up NAP to Thoth, he brushed it off with something like 'it's still a long way out, let's not worry about it now'. So - if I do sign an NAP, I'll certainly honor it, but at this point I don't think I'll be the one asking for it. If he requests an NAP, well, that'll be my decision point between invading and peaceful building.

On that note, I got a similar probe from WarriorKnight, so at least I know that it's not just Nyktorion aiming for 'let's you and him fight':

WarriorKnight Wrote:I think I might have something to trade to you for pearls. Do you have or plan on building Dreptus soon? If not, I can send you my spare Ale in a few turns as I'll soon lose my current trading partner. If that doesn't work out, I'll have to try and find something else to trade to you.

Mardoc Wrote:I will eventually build myself a Dereptus, but I have no plans for the near future; Ale is definitely tempting. Can you give me any details?

WarriorKnight Wrote:[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]While I'm unsure of the exact date yet that I'll have a spare Ale (since Irgy needs to finish his own Dreptus and he can only give estimates), I would guess it'll be around 8-10 turns or so.

BTW, the eastern civs (by that I mean everyone except Thoth - nyktorion, Irgy and I) are getting a little concerned about the Malakim's progress and would like to deal with him at some point in the near future before he starts running away. Would you be interesting in joining us against him? We'd definitely try and help you defend against Thoth as we don't want the Malakim to gain a greater lead on the rest of us.[/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]Yes, I'm potentially interested, but only if it's something well-coordinated and decisively big. I have no interest in just poking Thoth and seeing if he has claws - you and Nyktorion have much better defensive abilities than I do, especially when Thoth has so many Cultists and nearly all my cities are coastal, so if we just hit him similar to the Ilios dogpile, I'm sure he'd come after me in the aftermath. You and Nyktorion can both afford the risk of a failed attempt, with your worldspells to bail you out. I can't, really, so I'd want more assurance beforehand that it would work.

It would be nice not to have to be quite so paranoid about an invasion from the north, though.

And regardless of if I end up joining, I'll promise to keep the discussion confidential.

I will definitely have my Pearls available by 8-10 turns from now.[/COLOR]

And, some diplo with Thoth

Mardoc Wrote:On further thought - will you have spare Incense available anytime soon? I see a potential for you to end up with both Sugar and Ivory, if so .

Thoth Wrote:[COLOR="Yellow"]I'll have the spare incense connected and available for trade in about 5 turns. Sugar and Ivory would be awesome.

One other thing, after posting our chat in my spoiler thread I was corrected about the AC level for hell terrain to spread to neutral empires. It's actually 75 not 50 as I had though so we're safe for awhile yet. [/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]WarriorKnight has offered me an Ale for Pearls, which are somewhat easier to come by for me than Sugar. I'd still like to trade the Sugar for Incense, though, and likely trade the Ivory for Wheat later on; it'll be a while yet before I have a spare Ivory, and the situation may have changed dramatically by then, so you're probably not missing out on anything.

Glad to hear I don't get Hyborem to help me clear the jungles...I mean, that he won't be wrecking my resources . [/COLOR]

Thoth Wrote:[COLOR="Yellow"]No problem: Incense for Sugar once they're connected and Wheat for Ivory later.

I've left that gobbo fort on your island unpopped for you to either pop or farm for exp at your discretion. [/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:Thanks. I don't suppose you left the hut for me?

Thoth Wrote:[COLOR="Yellow"]Temptation overwhelmed me when I saw the hut.

It was popped for a hostile barb warrior. [/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:I actually thought the hut was the main reason you headed down to the island; you surprised me with your goblin-slaughtering ways .

Mardoc · May 2nd, 2011, 10:32

Well, that didn't take long:

Thoth Wrote:[COLOR="Yellow"]Actually, I was mainly heading down there to explore. I got distracted by the prospect of some easy exp from tsunamied gobbo archers. Those are some nice mutations on your Cultist btw. Chaos mana comes in handy sometimes.

A few days back we both mentioned discussing extending our NAP. What sort of extension are you looking for? 20/30 turns? or something longer? I'm pretty flexible as to duration.

I'm not sure if you got the notification in your event log as you don't have contact with Irgy yet, but he completed Rosier the fallen last turn.[/COLOR]

Now what?

My first instinct is to suggest a T200 NAP, and use that time to really aggressively develop the island. With the ability to put most of my cities to workers/settlers/ships/infrastructure, it ought to go pretty quickly.

On the other hand...I hate to leave Nyk/WK/Irgy hanging in the breeze. Maybe a quick e-mail to the elves and Elohim suggesting we make plans quick or cancel?

Mardoc · May 2nd, 2011, 11:18

Sent this to WarriorKnight and Nyktorion:

Quote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]Gentlemen,

I've gotten an offer from Thoth to significantly extend my NAP with him. I'm quite tempted to take him up on it, although that would put me out of position to do much of anything to rein him in as part of a coalition; I still have a lot of infrastructure and a fair number of cities to build, and I'm not really in a good position for war just yet.

I need to answer him shortly, so I thought I'd check with both of you and see if you have any arguments/details on your proposed war that can answer my nervousness to join in. In particular, the pieces I'm concerned about are what size of army you can supply, and how I can be certain that you'll participate, without leaving me on my own with an angry but undamaged Malakim neighbor.

Again, I promise not to pass on anything to Thoth from this discussion.

Finally - if I do sign an NAP with Thoth, are you interested in signing one with me as well?[/COLOR]

Mardoc · May 2nd, 2011, 14:12

Way of the Wicked is in (and I decline to revolt to Slavery for the time being).

I finally had the chance to go through the Trade screen; as far as I can tell, Thoth is ahead of me by Way of the Earthmother, Knowledge of the Ether, Archery, and Sanitation, while I'm ahead of him in just Seafaring, Cartography, and Way of the Wicked. That puts him essentially 10 turns worth of research ahead of me.

WarriorKnight is about at my level, but a different focus - I've got horseback riding, message from the deep, way of the wicked on him, while he's got Orders from Heaven, Hunting, Knowledge of the Ether on me.

And Nyktorion's significantly behind - missing the whole Crafting tree, Code of Laws, Trade, Construction, and several more. But is ahead by Hunting, Way of the Forests, Archery, Knowledge of the Ether and Necromancy. Clearly intending to use Mages to make up for a lack of melee. Of course, elven archers, Priests of Leaves (and tigers), and mages still makes a pretty decent force.

I've gotten a significant amount of diplo from Nyktorion; first a response to my general e-mail to Nyk and WK:

Nyktorion Wrote:[COLOR="Lime"]
you might be interested in the fact that Thoth also approached me with an offer of an NAP extension. Our current NAP (from the Bannor war) lasts until T130, and the extension proposal is until T150. Mardoc, what time frame is Thoth considering in his NAP proposal? WarriorKnight, what is your own NAP situation with Mardoc? If we collect this information, we might be able to figure out what Thoth is planning to use the NAPs for. I wonder whether he wants to use the NAPs as a cover for an attack on an isolated WarriorKnight or Irgy, or just wants to use peace (and his large territory) to tech up and/or build wonder undisturbed.

So Mardoc, why should you be trusting the team of 3 that is building up there rather than a long-term NAP with Thoth? I'll answer that just for my own part for now:

- Motivation: you can be sure that I won't just sit back and watch Thoth swallow the Lanun; that would guarantee that Thoth will be the winner of this game, and I'd still like to have a shot at that position myself (for the same reason, I think it would be bad for you to lean back if Thoth wants to swallow anyone else during that time)

- Force: as you can see in the power graph, the soldier counts of Thoth and myself are relatively evenly matched at this moment. This includes a highly promoted Gilden Silveric, whom I strongly believe to be the most powerful player controlled single unit in the game currently. In particular, he could easily defeat either one of General Martok and Thoth's adventurer warrior in a 1 on 1. In expanding this army throughout the near future, I plan to focus adepts; their upgrade to mages attacking with fireballs and maelstroms (thus giving my Bannor war veterans some good collateral damage) would mark the ideal moment to strike Thoth for me. If he would indeed attack you at T140 already, my Bannor war veterans (maybe already including 1 or 2 mages with lucky levelups) would at least force him to keep a large part of his forces towards the east of his empire.[/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]
Thoth proposed that I name a date; he suggested T160-170, but is open to longer if I am.

I do realize that you have the highest power in the game, and an army composition that's pretty decent as well. It's the motivation bit that makes me nervous - how do I know I'm not another Mr. Yellow? Frankly, you did intervene there to limit Thoth's growth, but not in a way that I'd be happy with if you did it to me .

If T140 is early to be planning an attack (and if you won't have any collateral until then, it probably is), maybe I should go ahead and sign an NAP anyway, and that'll leave us more time to plan our campaign for when it expires.[/COLOR]

Quote:[COLOR="Lime"]
There are geographic and diplomatic reasons why you are a very different case than Mr. Yellow.

Geographically, there is a large stretch of Malakim territory between us (actually, all three of Irgy, WarriorKnight, and myself are at the eastern part of our land mass, in order from south to north). If Thoth and I (and maybe others) divided your lands between ourselves, it should be obvious that Thoth will benefit from any of your cities much more . Also, those of your cities that do not go to Thoth would be pretty hard to defend against him after such a war against you. I could not see how I would profit from such an alliance against you even remotely as much as Thoth would (and thus, why I should ally with Thoth against you).

Diplomatically, I think that WarriorKnight and Irgy would be much unhappier with a move of myself against you than against Mr. Yellow for two reasons. First, other than you, Mr. Yellow would have been doomed anyway without significant interference from outside against Thoth. Second, other than in the Bannor war, a conquest of your lands would probably decide the game. Also, with my army needing to march through Malakim lands in order to reach you, I would essentially have to have Thoth's full cooperation here, and thus have to accept his terms if I "wanted a pice of the Lanun cake". With that and and the prospect two angry civs at my back (is that prospect correct, WarriorKnight? ), I again do not see how I should be able to profit from a war against you.[/COLOR]

And privately:

Nyktorion Wrote:[COLOR="Lime"]
concerning Thoth: as I said, WarriorKnight, Irgy and myself are currently planning ways to stop Irgy. We are currently discussing plans for efficient three-way sharing of mana. While air and water mana already exist within our trading pool (and Irgy also has chaos in his palace, but we haven't really considered that yet), your sun mana could be a welcome addition to our pool. We are also considering the the possibility of a joint military strike against him when we have the necessary weapons for that.

Concerning your ingame trade proposals: I gladly accept open borders, the additional trade will surely benefit both of us. However, I'm afraid that I can't accept your resource trade proposals at this time. I am already trading my surplus cotton and silk to Irgy and Thoth (as you said, resource deals are one way to motivate peacefulness; also, the trade of one happiness resource - initially the cotton next to one of the former Bannor cities - was part our agreement when we warred against the Bannor).[/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]
I knew when I proposed the silk trade that it might already be committed elsewhere, but I hadn't known what you had until then. It doesn't look like you have anything else to trade for Pearls at the present time? If that changes, let me know, I'd be happy to trade.[/COLOR]

Nyktorion Wrote:I just got an idea for another trade we could do to benefit both of us. Since both of us have air mana, it might be a good idea for one of us to have both at times where he either builds a lot of adepts at the same time, or is upgrading adepts into mages; this would give us the opportunity to get free Air I promotions for our adepts/mages. So, what do you think of a deal where each of us loans his air mana to the other one at a time the recipient of the mana specifies?

Mardoc Wrote:Ooh, I like that one; Fair Winds is definitely going to be a handy promotion for me to have along in my ships. As you can probably see, I don't have Knowledge of the Ether yet, so I can gift the Air anytime you're ready for it.

So, what am I thinking? I'm still thinking I want an NAP with Thoth. I trust Nyktorion and WarriorKnight to be able to defend themselves (especially with their worldspells), and I'd like to give a try to outexpanding Thoth. I think with a 100% focus on expansion/infra, I can still catch him. The further we get in the game, the more likely I am to be able to handle his Cultists, too. He'll gain Sand Lions, Citadels of Light, and possibly more religious stuff, but nothing that scares me as much as 10 Cultists do right now.

I'm going to wait a little while yet to respond to him, to see if WarriorKnight has anything to add, or if Dave does, but if no one talks me out of it, I'll be agreeing to an NAP, probably for somewhere in the range of T170-T200 as an end date. And essentially aborting all military builds for the moment except what I need on the island.

The other downside to war now, of course, is that 20 turns isn't long to build an army at all; I could probably end up with 6-7 chariots or catapults, 10ish Cultists, and 10ish Drowns, but that's not really enough to be scary.

I would still, however, be probably planning/plotting to war against Thoth eventually; just not yet.

Mardoc · May 2nd, 2011, 18:42

An amusing chat with Thoth - very little content here. Warning: contains spoilers for our cunning plan to invade the lurkers

Ilios · May 3rd, 2011, 06:22

Mardoc Wrote:Well, how about you take on Amelia, and I take on Ilios?

Challenge accepted! wink

Mardoc · May 3rd, 2011, 08:14

Ilios Wrote:Challenge accepted!

Game on! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMrN3Rh55uM

I ended up deciding to sign an NAP with Thoth until T170, after further discussions with WarriorKnight, Nyktorion, and Irgy (via WarriorKnight). Mostly because I got the strong impression that the attack won't be ready until then anyway, so I might as well take the security and grow for the time being. No one had any sort of timetable, plans, details...so keep improving my capabilities while we hash that out.

I invite your 'I told you so's to appear in the lurker thread in the event that Thoth was more vulnerable to an immediate hit than I realized.

I will definitely continue discussing plans with the easterners, and hopefully we work out something promising, and that Thoth hasn't pulled too far away by then. So - time to switch gears to full econ. I need enough military to handle part of Hyborem and the island, but otherwise I should focus on econ techs - Hunting, Currency, Sanitation, KoTE...

I also ought to get at least Sea Havens up all over the place, and Lighthouses. I really do think I can outexpand Thoth, if I bend my whole empire that way, and who knows what the situation will be when T170 rolls around? If I'm lucky (and good), I've pulled into #1 on everything but score, but the alliance is still focused on Thoth.

So, the discussions:

WarriorKnight Wrote:[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]Greetings all

My own NAP woth Thoth lasts until T135. I personally don't expect him to try and extend it, as our relations have been relatively quiet until recently where I turned down two deals with him, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, as for the reason you should join us, I'll just add on to what nyktorion has already said:

Motivation: Sitting back watching Thoth gain more land somewhere will undoubtedly lead to his victory, which none of us want to see. If Thoth decides to attack one of us, I'll definitely intervene against Thoth to help out.

Force: While my power graph is rather low at the moment, I plan to fix that very shortly as I finally have enough production to start building an army. My main force will primarily consist of Monks, who will be quite strong compared to what everyone else can get for a while. I do plan to use some adepts as well, and in addition to Valin I'm hoping that I can get Corlindale before the war starts who, being a heroic archmage should cause a lot of damage.

Geographically: It would be unreasonable for anyone but the Malakim to profit from Lanun lands, as the rest of us are all the way on the eastern side of the landmass and any cities that we could convince Thoth to part with would be long way from our core lands and would be extremely vulnerable.

Diplomatically: I wouldn't be thrilled at the idea of nyktorion going after you, and I'm sure if I went after you, nyktorion wouldn't be pleased either. Mr. Yellow was a different case, as from what I could tell he didn't have much of a chance against Thoth in the first place, and would have eventually lost to Thoth even if nyktorion didn't get involved.

I won't have any problems signing a NAP with you Mardoc, as like nyktorion said, attacking you would require complete co-operation with Thoth and he would undoubtedly gain more from any conquest of your lands.

BTW Mardoc, if you want to meet the Sheaim and plan to get Hunting soon, I wouldn't have any problems with you sending a hawk into my lands to meet the Sheaim (avoiding all the barbarians in the process) provided we also swap maps.[/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]I can see the arguments for why you won't invade me, anyway, and why you'd prefer Thoth not to invade me either. And I definitely see the argument that Thoth is ahead and likely to stay there.

I guess the main question becomes timing. If I sign an NAP until T170, for instance, is that mutually exclusive with joining you in a war? I'm not really in good shape for trying for a war at T140; I've got too many pieces that I need to acquire first, like Hawks and mages and collateral.

Alternately, would signing a mutual defense pact and containing Thoth be enough, or do we need to actually take him down? I could be wrong about this, but my current thinking is that he's near his maximum, while the rest of us still have room to grow.

I'll have to think about the map/Hawk-contact offer; I have been considering sending a military boat instead of a work boat, and that might be enough to get through. I do intend to acquire Hunting soon, although there'll be a delay while I construct a Hunting Lodge. I will probably pass on screenshots of Thoth's land, though, whether or not I reveal my own (post-Hawk)[/COLOR]

WarriorKnight Wrote:[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]
Timing will be difficult to figure out. None of us are ready for a war and won't be for a while. On the other hand every turn we wait gives Thoth a bigger lead. The 4 of us will need to discuss together to decide the right time to attack.

I'm not sure containing Thoth will be enough. Thanks to the Bannor war he has quite a lot of land, and I can't be sure if he's finished settling it yet. He has a huge food lead (he's got something like 270 food and none of us can really compete with that right now) and I don't think he's near the happy cap yet so he can still grow as much as the rest of us.[/COLOR]

Mardo Wrote:Quite simply, I'm still undecided. But I need to at least respond to Thoth by tomorrow. If we can agree on T170 as the potential D-Day (or T180, or T200), then I can remain available and persuadable.

Mardoc Wrote:Ok, I went for the short end of the range; I extended my NAP with Thoth until end of T170. If we can work out a solid plan to hit him on T171, I'm almost certainly in for that.

WarriorKnigght Wrote:[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]Hi Mardoc

I've received the following message from Irgy and have been instructed to pass it onto you. If you wish to send a reply to him, I'll happily continue to act as intermediate and ensure to forward any messages to him.[/COLOR]

WK
Irgy Wrote:[COLOR="Plum"]

Hi

I'd like to send the following message to Mardoc, using you as an intermediary.
Are you happy to do that? Feel free to read it yourself of course, and comment
or improve on it. Just ignore any references to conspiring to dogpile the
Elohim. Let me know before you change anything substantial in it though
obviously, so I know what I've said.

Irgy

==========================
Greetings, at least in an indirect fashion. It's a shame we've yet to make contact.
I heard you had a boat on the way and didn't build my own, and then yours got eaten by a griffon. That same griffon has been an unrelenting scourge on our explorers all game, I'll be celebrating when Rosier or someone can finally bring it to ground. At this stage it looks likemy best hope to make contact is by way of mage eyes. I haven't checked yet whether the summoner trait works on them though? If you have any better ideas I'd welcome them.

In any case, I do trust WarriorKnight as an intermediary. So for all that it would obviously make it a little difficult to plot the downfall of the Elohim, I expect the principle problem with our lack of genuine contact will mainly just be the inability for us to trade resources.

I've been silently competing with you in score for most of the game, although I seem to have slipped behind both yourself and everyone else at the moment. The Bannor being eliminated was a bit of a shame since it made my
demographics look a whole lot worse all of a sudden.

I'm not sure what the others have told you already, so I'll fill you in on my own position and situation. I have just one land border, which is with WarriorKnight of the Elohim, with whom I have a co-operative and peaceful relation so far. The continent on the whole stretches much further east-west than north south. I'm basically in the far southeast corner of the map, and the Elohim are directly northwest of me in a more central position on the eastern side. I can see the northern borders of your lands thanks to a map I received from the Bannor before they left the game, although my information is no doubt out of date.

Currently, I'm writing this message primarily to try and convince you to join what has become "our side", rather than the Malakim's. So I guess I'll start making my case.

Peace with the Malakim is no doubt a safe, easy, and therefore quite tempting offer. You'd be able to safely mind your own business while the rest of the world fights its war. But when it all falls our, where's it going to leave you? The Malakim are not yet an out of control runaway, but if they remain unchecked that's what they're fast going to turn into. Unless you're about to finish building them yourself (which I doubt, given you've had the Heron Throne poached already) they'll have the Bone Palace and Great Library soon, turning what's currently a good edge into a complete blowout. Even just left alone they're going to be a problem. If they, thanks to a safe southern border, eventually also make significant gains in Elohim, Ljosalfar or Sheaim lands it's basically game over for everyone.

This puts you, by supporting the Malakim, in a potential king-maker situation, but not a winning one. I've been on both sides of it in other games myself. I had a BTS game with a runaway industrial civ who I allied with, essentially dooming the rest of the players. In that at least I thought I had a number of advantages, in having (what I mistakenly thought was) significantly more land to expand into thanks to some successful conquests and a vassal ally, giving me reasonable opportunity to turn the tables at the end. I didn't, but I still think I had some opportunities at least.

Here however, I can't particularly see anything for you. You have very little
opportunity to share in any military game, simply due to the geography. While the Malakim might naturally expand their own borders, you're hemmed in by them, and would need to travel to the other side of the map to find any plunder of your own, leaving your empire divided and vulnerable even if you did. The Lanun aren't particularly waiting for any late game UU/UB advantage against the Malakim, while they are meanwhile gathering Teutorix and Chalid (we think they're likely to snap up the Empyrean religion, they notably haven't built any RoK heroes or researched Arete yet). Maybe you have some brilliant scheme in mind, but personally I can't see what you've got that could turn the tables.

Of course, the Malakim might well lose the war, even with your support. In that case though do you really want to be sitting their, with your raiders trait, but being the only one who can't get any of the spoils?

Siding with us will leave you in an excellent position to make a good chunk of
the gains. The Malakim are a substantial military threat to you, but they're always going to be. Having them tied up with a war on the opposite front is the best chance you're going to get, and if it goes well you have the most to gain from it.

When it all falls out, you'll be one of four civs that you're in a comparable
position to. Although the three of us have had contact for longer, we're all
willing to bring you on board on an equal footing. Once it's over, personally I will no doubt have something of a problem that all of the players are ones which I feel inclined to co-operate with, but I can certainly at least say I won't be particularly inclined to attack you across the seas

We're all aware we don't want this to end up another attack like the pitboss2
attack on Speaker/Sulla, but I think there's a number of reasons that won't be the case. We're a competant bunch of players, in a better relative position, and it's only me who'll be attacking from a substantial distance. And if we can't win this now we're never going to be able to.

Sorry for such an essay, but you know what I'm like. All the best,
Irgy Arbandi
==========================[/COLOR]

Mardoc Wrote:[COLOR="RoyalBlue"]
WarriorKnight, I appreciate the connection. The following is to both you and Irgy; please don't pass it onto Nyktorion as I don't want to hurt his feelings.

I will, in the near future, be building ships with an actual military strength, and attempting to make formal in-game contact through that means. A Gryphon may be able to eat a defenseless workboat, but a Trireme or Pirate would just laugh at him.

Now, onto the main subject. I have no intention of helping Thoth defend against you; at the least you can expect me to be a friendly neutral. My reluctance to join in an attack does not extend to wishing that Thoth runs away with the game.

My concerns are twofold: first, I'm not really ready for a war, and I have an NAP until T140. I would be much happier planning a war for somewhere in the T170ish range. At the moment, I still have cities to settle, infrastructure to build, and some vital military techs to pick up - my buildable military consists of warriors, Drowns, and Cultists. With Thoth being mostly inland (I assume), that's not a very impressive force. I will shortly be able to build chariots and catapults, but not likely in sufficient numbers for anything but defense. Meanwhile, if Thoth chooses to counterattack, all but one of my cities are coastal, and I know he acquired 10 cultists from his world spell.

But second, I'm the vulnerable one if something, anything, goes wrong. If someone backs out, or Thoth has more military than expected, or our coordination is poor, I'm the logical target for Thoth from both a tactical and a strategic standpoint. I don't have a worldspell capable of rescuing me, I don't have a neighbor capable of defending me, and I am the sole cause of a potential 2-front situation. Even in the event I could somehow defend my cities, Thoth could deal a lot of damage to my economy just by Tsunaming my coves and coastal improvements away. It seems therefore that I would be bearing a disproportionate share of the risk, and a small share of the reward.

Finally, it occurs to me that you three could gain almost as much from a war between just me and Thoth as you can with a war in which you participate. This is a bit of a catch-22 situation, in that I have trouble thinking of any way you can prove your goodwill without me already being either in trouble or too late to pile in against Thoth. Similarly, if Thoth is crippled or knocked out, well, I'm probably next on the hitlist. I'm not the brightest bulb in the drawer, though; maybe you can think of something I'm missing that could give me confidence.

Frankly, what happened to the Bannor does not give me confidence. If Sir Yellow had been given support instead of invaded, he would still be holding out, and we wouldn't be nearly as worried about Thoth's capabilities. As he explained the situation to me, until the last moment he was expecting Elven reinforcements, not invaders. I acknowledge that none of you are likely to invade me without Thoth being taken out first, but even insufficient commitment to a war from your end would be enough to put me out of the game. Both of you are to my knowledge honorable, but it appears the bulk of the forces would have to come from Nyktorion in any event, so he has the whip hand.

In any event, I need to reply to Thoth with something concrete on the NAP front, tomorrow. If we can agree on a suitable date for operations in the event you persuade me, then I can at least keep my options open by proposing my NAP to end at a convenient time, and we can keep the discussion open. I'm willing to be persuaded, I'm just not willing to take all the risk myself.[/COLOR]

WarriorKnight Wrote:[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]
First things first, since the two of you don't have contact make sure you don't 'reply to all'.

As for your concerns Mardoc, here's my take on them:

>My concerns are twofold: first, I'm not really ready for a war, and I have an NAP until T140. I would be much happier planning a war >for somewhere in the T170ish range. At the moment, I still have cities to settle, infrastructure to build, and some vital military techs to >pick up - my buildable military consists of warriors, Drowns, and Cultists. With Thoth being mostly inland (I assume), that's not a >very impressive force. I will shortly be able to build chariots and catapults, but not likely in sufficient numbers for anything but >defense. Meanwhile, if Thoth chooses to counterattack, all but one of my cities are coastal, and I know he acquired 10 cultists from >his world spell.

None of us are ready for war right now, that's a fact. The three of us need to get something better than just warriors for defense, and I'm sure nyktorion would like to have some better units too. A war around T170 might just our only option if all of us are to be ready in time.

>But second, I'm the vulnerable one if something, anything, goes wrong. If someone backs out, or Thoth has more military than >expected, or our coordination is poor, I'm the logical target for Thoth from both a tactical and a strategic standpoint. I don't have a >worldspell capable of rescuing me, I don't have a neighbor capable of defending me, and I am the sole cause of a potential 2-front >situation. Even in the event I could somehow defend my cities, Thoth could deal a lot of damage to my economy just by Tsunaming >my coves and coastal improvements away. It seems therefore that I would be bearing a disproportionate share of the risk, and a >small share of the reward.

That is all true. However, like Irgy has already mentioned, the Malakim will always be a threat to you. Your best chance against them is when they are discrated on another front (ie warring with us), and if that goes well you have the most to gain from it.

>Finally, it occurs to me that you three could gain almost as much from a war between just me and Thoth as you can with a war in >which you participate. This is a bit of a catch-22 situation, in that I have trouble thinking of any way you can prove your goodwill >without me already being either in trouble or too late to pile in against Thoth. Similarly, if Thoth is crippled or knocked out, well, I'm >probably next on the hitlist. I'm not the brightest bulb in the drawer, though; maybe you can think of something I'm missing that could >give me confidence.

It's impossible to prove anything until it happens in-game but as I've told you before, if Thoth gets any more land he's effectively already won the game and as you've mentioned above, your rather vulnerable against him militarily. Therefore if we are to stop Thoth from running away with the game then we can't let him successfully invade you, or else we might as well just concede the game to Thoth.

Even if Thoth gets crippled but not eliminated, we would still have to go past his borders to reach you, thus it would still be silly to consider attacking you then. Assuming the best case scenario that Thoth gets eliminated, well I can't say what would happen then as I'm not sure myself, but we're willing to bring on to an even footing with the three of us, so you won't immediately be the next target on the hitlist.

>Frankly, what happened to the Bannor does not give me confidence. If Sir Yellow had been given support instead of invaded, he would >still be holding out, and we wouldn't be nearly as worried about Thoth's capabilities. As he explained the situation to me, until the last >moment he was expecting Elven reinforcements, not invaders. I acknowledge that none of you are likely to invade me without Thoth >being taken out first, but even insufficient commitment to a war from your end would be enough to put me out of the game. Both of >you are to my knowledge honorable, but it appears the bulk of the forces would have to come from Nyktorion in any event, so he has >the whip hand.

AFAICT, nyktorion declared on the Bannor to have a better overall relative position against Thoth. This time though, he is fighting against Thoth, and backing out would only serve to give Thoth the game. Since nyktorion is aware of this and still intends to try and win (all of us do), I don't believe that he will backstab us and side with Thoth in this conflict. If your still concerned about him, I suggest you confront him directly about it as he can address your concerns better than I can.

Your last point isn't true though. While it's true that nyktorion has the by far the highest power out of the 4 of us right now, that would only matter if we were attack this turn. Graphs can change quickly, and I suspect that by the time we're ready to invade, nyktorion won't be the only one with a high power graph.[/COLOR]

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