WW #41. New Horizons.

[AdrienIer]

On the losing all watchers comment -- it was an unfounded leap, came to me as an afterthought and I didn't critically evaluate before hitting "post". I just felt that most people have claimed, I don't have the ability, and we didn't get any watcher results, so we must have lost them. Actually, Adrien and/or Gaz can have this ability still.

On why I am voting Adrien, as requested by Serdoa:

1. Started the Brickwagon with no real case
2. Made a mostly safe-claim, which relies on making a mistake in choosing who to scan (a known redirected)
3. Made a strange post about "scum did it" in response to Glum's claimed lockdown
4. Has been mostly posting wool as far as I am aware, in many places with just slightly rotten logic, see his latest justification on why scanning Serdoa was correct and my and Glum's responses.
5. Generally justifications for his own actions and posts have been weak, including the latest exchange with Zak.

On the basis of the above, I don't see better candidates.

1 no one was forced to follow.
2 no one is more sorry than I that my ability got wasted.
3 no one is claiming blocking Gazglum so either he's scum or I had a hunch that turned out true. But apparently making a correct assumption on a night action is a scum tell ?
4 scanning Serdoa wasn't as bad an idea as you say it was.

I had little time to play in d1 and you're using that to push a mislynch. I'm on my phone so I can't reread until 30mn before deadline. Bacchus until then

[Bacchus]

Firstly, it's not really 50-50, as Lewwyn might be lying, or we might have unscannable scum. 45-45 may be. Secondly, probabilistic voting in general stinks and is a great misdirection tool for scum. Thirdly, and relatedly, it's not as if we don't have reads within the LAZN group, I'm not voting Adrien on a 25% chance. I am still waiting on a contribution from you to figure out the percentages though.

[AdrienIer]

Bacchus if Lewwyn is scum with me why didn't I claim a much easier scan on him ? We'd have been able to steer it towards a vote on GSB and win easily. If Lewwyn is scum without me you shouldn't be voting for me and if he's not scum you should be voting on the 50/50 with Gaz and Serdoa

[Rowain]

Again I have no ability to block,jail or otherwise stop a player performing an action.
I can only kill via the lynch and possess no other killing ability.

Possibilities:
a)Lewwyn lied about there beeing 1 scum on BRick => Lewwyn is scum +
1 of zak, Adrien, novice.
From this I find novice the most townlike.zak and Adrien are both shady. Both would fit as a partner to Lewwyn with a lean on zak as such a gambit (Lewwyn claiming sensor and giving a wrong resul) is more likely in that case. Especially as Adrien was already in danger to get lynched.

b) Lewwyn told the truth about the 1 scum
=> 1 of zak, Adrien, novice and Lewwyn is scum.
=> 1 of Serdoa,Gazglum, Bacchus is scum

From the last 3 I fond both Gazglum and Bacchus villagish.

As possible pairs I see zak + Serdoa most likely especially in the light of the huge clash they had. With Serdoa opening the game with an attack on zak based on nothing ( classical distancing ).

It was followed with his constant hinting that I might be dangerous that I would make a good lynch and so on preparing the way for a Rowain-lynch for the win. I don't see town-Serdoa at all which is odd considering I once proclaimed him town early on and got heavy fire for it in a different game.

[Rowain]

@novice and Adrien

Whom do you see as partner in crime with Bacchus?

[Bacchus]

Missed another question from Serdoa to me -- what did I do during the night. I felt that none of my abilities are worth using on the first night, given lack of feedback and coordination during it.

[AdrienIer]

@novice and Adrien

Whom do you see as partner in crime with Bacchus?

Novice perhaps ? I wish I had time to reread.

[novice]

I think Zakalwe is the most likely scum in LZA, and you in BSG.

[AdrienIer]

@novice and Adrien

Whom do you see as partner in crime with Bacchus?

Novice perhaps ? I wish I had time to reread.

But of course if novice stays on this course it would have to be zak

[Bacchus]

I didn't understand it either after I had sent the post. I had that statement of making it close in mind when doing it, but after sending the post I realized that it made no sense in this context. Well, except if BRick had shown up and saved himself. But that wasn't the point, I even thought about unvoting for just that reason but with only a minute left I wasn't sure of the further implications of doing that so I simply didn't.

Also if AdrienIer is scum, my vote makes no sense at all if I was scum too.

Lastly: It makes no sense if I am scum to switch because one of the lynchers is my scum-buddy. I was not on BRick at any time, I was on a lynch-target that would not be lynched and my reasoning imo was valid enough that no one would ask twice why I didn't change. Therefore, even though I agree it makes no sense to make that vote, I don't think it makes me any more or less scummy than I was before.

Bacchus if Lewwyn is scum with me why didn't I claim a much easier scan on him ? We'd have been able to steer it towards a vote on GSB and win easily. If Lewwyn is scum without me you shouldn't be voting for me and if he's not scum you should be voting on the 50/50 with Gaz and Serdoa

Yeah, and you just ignore the possibility, explicitly stated in my post, that we might have unscannable scum. It's for stuff like that I'm voting, you've been doing it consistently.