[Spoilers] Suboptimal - Welcome to the Tlachtli of Blunders!

[suboptimal]

Turn 147

Building continues. Based on Archduke’s suggestions (which I’ll fully process and respond to later today) I start a Campus at Begin and a University at Maps. I need to get some figuring done because building districts will require building builders – at 130 current cost for a builder and 301 current cost for a non-discounted district the best way to get these out will be Serfdom builders.

BTW, rho21’s science is now at 130 per turn. You have to remember that for him a Campus is going to worth be 8 without any other adjacencies while he runs Natural Philosophy and has Geneva. I can only get 8 science with a library, university and a +2 adjacency. Even with my current empire size my ability to keep up with his science growth as he gets buildings done will be limited. Likewise for culture with the Acropolis districts. Given his jump between last turn and this turn I think he's completed The Enlightenment - his gold also jumped up to 64 per turn but his culture has remained steady.

My science rate is also glitched -- Near Wild Heaven is at 20 right now because of overflow from the jungle on the prior Campus project. My rate next turn is going to return to somewhere around 120. By my count the city should only be generating around 11 (3 adj, 2 library, 5.6 pop, +5% amenity)

[suboptimal]

Intermission

Alrighty….after a bit of a forced night off due to RL scheduling, a good night’s sleep, some errands, a brisk walk and a nice lunch with a couple of adult libations it’s time to get back in the saddle. Prior to downloading the turn I spent some time going over Archduke’s post-T146 commentary and going through my T147 screen shots of all of my cities (I screenshot all of them before ending the turn for future reference) I’ve started working on a new plan forward…

Districts

Campus

I’ve got four: Cant (+3 adj, library, university), How (+1 adj, library, university), Maps (+1 adj, library, university under construction) and Near (+3 adj, library). I just started on in Begin – it will take 11 turns to complete for a +1 adjacency and then I can get a library out in 3-4 turns. In looking over my other cities I have available placements with adjacency bonuses in High Speed (+1, tundra next to the Harbor & city center), Find (+1, adj in the 3rd ring to the SE), Oddfellows (+1, next to Comm Hub and city center). For most of these I’d need to use builder labor as Find would be the only one to build it in a reasonable amount of time (12-14 turns).

Industrial Zone

I’ve currently got one – a +5 IZ at How. Four of my cities have enough mines that would make this worthwhile – Begin (+2, currently out of district slots), Horse to Water (+2 adj), Kenneth (currently +1, can chop-and-mine to +3), Welcome (+2), Oddfellows (buy a tile in the west for +3). For most of these I would need builder power – Welcome could finish one in less than ten turns due to the discount.

Commercial Hubs

I’ve got six: Begin, Find, Cant, Kenneth, Submarine, Oddfellows. Oddfellows has a bank and market, Cant and find have markets. I’ve only got two other cities on rivers for the adjacency bonus (Maps and How) and both of those are at district capacity. To boost income further my best bet here is to go against Sulla’s analysis in PBEM 7 and build the district buildings. I need a second bank for a boost but three more markets and one bank will get me another 11 gold in income. Markets and banks are also within the reasonable production capabilities of these cities.
Encampments

Archduke has suggested putting one to the east of Horse. The second ring hill should be claimed when I open the T148 save. It’d be a 24 turn build time.

So, what to place and how many Serfdom builders would I need?
- IZ’s at Kenneth, Welcome and Horse
- Campus at Oddfellows, High Speed and Find
- Encampment at Horseback

Welcome would scratch build its district, either while holding the Terracotta Army at one turn or after completing it. Find could scratch build, especially since getting a builder out and timed with Serfdom takes just as long. Ditto with Kenneth’s IZ. So I’d need four builders – two for Horse, one for Oddfellows and one for High Speed. This is manageable.

Unimproved Tiles

Archduke commented that a lot of cities are working unimproved tiles. In a few instances this needs to be corrected – I’ve got unmined hills at Begin, High Speed, I need a pasture at Kenneth and a couple of rice farms at Near and Underneath. I have a couple of unworked and unmined hills scattered about and the rest are empty grasslands or plains tiles. There are a few jungle chops available at Submarine, Maps and Find, a forest at High Speed, and some chop-and-mines at Kenneth that could also be done.

Settlers

Archduke pointed out a few sites I could settle. I think the donut hole and the coast by Oddfellows are definite sites, though the one by Oddfellows would need to be closely watched in case Greece comes calling via the sea. East of Begin & Horse is an option though I haven’t looked at that section of the map yet (I’ll screenshot it and think about it after T148).

Other items

High Speed only has one mineable tile left (mentioned above). I don’t know that an Aqueduct would do much for this city – it’d be easier to chop the forest, farm three tiles and leave the one closest to the mountain for Find’s Campus. That gets me 1.5 housing for a lot less production. I do need to get those pearls boated for the extra food and gold as well.

I think with the military I’ll upgrade the crossbows and swords at Begin, bring down the muskets from Cant and go storm Kongo. The cost for upgrading horsemen, even with Professional Army, is a bit steep so that’ll be more of a long term proposition. I can bring down one of the great generals (probably Ghengis once Jeanne d’Arc arrives) for the Kongo assault.

[suboptimal]

Turn 148

Open the save, check out the notifications and see if anything concerning is going on. Nope, quiet. Mercantilism is in, rho21’s crossbow is back in the Encampment (its strength is down to 51 again) and all’s quiet. My science rate is back down to where it “should” be at 118 and change. Rho21’s is still at 130.8. He just cleared a babarian post (gossip) and Japper just entered Merchant Republic.

Up north my deadlined horseman comes ashore near Green. The archer at Oddfellows can’t get to the barbarian camp this turn because it’s in a forest. I’ll clear it next turn. The builder at Near heads for Kenneth – I’ll use its two charges to chope-and-mine the forest hill next to the intended IZ placement.

For civics I start Civil Engineering – that’ll be due in 6 turns. Why that instead of The Enlightenment? Because it gives me the policy that gets +30% towards builders along with the 2 extra charges. Caravansaries has lapsed, Triangular Trade goes in. I also take out Press Gangs (since Find is 1-2 turns form completion on the caravel) and put in Natural Philosophy for some extra science (8 or so). Science is back up to 127.8, per turn income is at 57.3.

Time to place some districts and change some builds:

- High Speed stops the field cannon, places a Campus just west of the city center and starts a builder.
- Horse places an IZ two hexes due north of the city center. I’d love to place the Encampment now but the tile I’d be putting it on is forested and I want to be able to chop it. Once the granary is completed in two turns I’ll start a builder here as well.
- Find has a +2 adjacency assuming I don’t chop its remaining jungles. I put a Campus at the original mountain location and will start building it out once the caravel completes. I’ll switch to a builder once Civil Engineering completes.
- Welcome places its IZ and continues building the Terracotta Army. There are 7 turns left to completion there and the district will take 8.
- Oddfellows places its Campus, stops building the Musketman and starts a builder.
- Kenneth would place an IZ but the cost is no longer discounted due to the placed IZ at Welcome, so I hold off placing one there.

Builders are currently under construction at Harborcoat, High Speed and Oddfellows, with builders to come from Submarine, How (after the project completes) and Horse. All will be completed after I slot Public Works in 6 turns.

In looking at the map for settlers, the location NE of Oddfellows would be water constrained – the only good location is coastal. At Begin & Horse there is room for three cities, one on the river east of Horse, one on Lake Tsingy and one in the hills east of Begin that would require an Aqueduct. There’s also donut hole. I’ll figure out settlers after the builders are out.

I also need to debate whether building a workshop + factory at How is worthwhile. The factory would affect five cities (How, Oddfellows, Near, Kenneth and Underneath). A factory at Kenneth’s IZ would affect Kenneth, Cant, How, and Maps. Horse would cover four (Horse, Begin, Find and High Speed) with a Factory.

[TheArchduke]

Sounds very good.

Do you think an offensive against Rho is viable?

I am on the fence: 30%

At the same time I would move your armies except 6 Knights and 4 crossbows down to Begin the Begin and flank Japper. He is no match for your luxuries and you could bring Rho to panic. I doubt Japper will switch sides.

70%

Just dig in and build away.

You got more land by far and Rho is just hanging on thanks to Geneva.

[suboptimal]

Sounds very good.

Do you think an offensive against Rho is viable?

I am on the fence: 30%

At the same time I would move your armies except 6 Knights and 4 crossbows down to Begin the Begin and flank Japper. He is no match for your luxuries and you could bring Rho to panic. I doubt Japper will switch sides.

70%

Just dig in and build away.

You got more land by far and Rho is just hanging on thanks to Geneva.

Did you mean Japper?  I think against rho21 any offensive is suicide.  Against Japper it may be doable, though not with the force complement you're suggesting - if I were to pull that many troops south I'd be concerned that rho decides to attempt a breakthrough attack.

Japper's capital is located midway between Kapsalon and the former Hong Kong.  I have no direct vision on the city (yet) but there's a city with a very big border there and given the locations of the other three capitals it makes sense.  Of course, just like rho, I doubt Japper would settle for peace once war was begun, so I'd either get stuck with a bunch of cities in occupied status or need to completely wipe him out.  I don't know that a full wipe-out would be doable (yet).  With field cannon, cavalry and muskets it would be if I can upgrade faster than he can tech.

[suboptimal]

Turn 149

MOAR BUILDING! At least, that’s the immediate plan. But first, a look at Xenocrates because my spy just went active there:




Mousing over with a unit highlighted gives defensive unit strengths between 51 (Encampment and crossbow east of the city center) and 86 (2x promoted field cannon on the hill). Not cracking this nut any time soon. The spy’s only available missions are Gain Sources and Listening Post, both with a 6 turn completion time. Since my plan is to leave the spy here until rho21 builds one and goes active with it I do Listening Post for the potential intel I can get. Once he goes active with it I’ll probably put this spy in How to guard against sabotage at the Industrial Zone.

Down by Cant the crossbow and musket continue moving towards Begin to form up an attack force. Way up north the barbarian scout has moved away from the camp and my archer clears it.

Submarine has finished a trader, I send it to Kenneth, which will in turn start a trade route to Begin. Cant starts a builder and Submarine starts a market.

In the Great People races I’ll have a new Great General next turn, a Great Merchant in two and Darwin in 8 or less – the project at How will complete in three turns and will push me 4 turns closer. I will complete Industrialization and Siege Tactics before using Darwin as the 2000 science from him will complete Military Science, Rifling and a good chunk of Steel.

[suboptimal]

The Not Quite Turn 150 Update

Since I skipped any sort of massive overview update at T100 and T150 won’t happen until tomorrow I figured I’d spend some time putting together something at the End of Turn 149.  I don’t have opponent stats here; I’ll put those up in the Turn 151 report.

The Northwest




These are the combined lands of the northwestern city-states (Lisbon and Vilnius), the former Egyptian city of Barrayar and my own relatively recent plant.  It’s fertile but flat.  Oddfellows is at its housing limit (9) and next turn will exceed it.  I can gain some more by farming the grasslands to the NE.  Harborcoat is limited in terms of production right now.  I’ll get another two up here once Industrialization completed, but even then it’ll only be running at 11.5 per turn.  Green is even more production limited, at least for the time being.  However, this city was founded to do two things – build population and get culture from Pantanal.  It’s also Darwin’s destination when I get him.  Welcome is the best of the four cities up here, pulling down almost 23 production per turn.  I am working two citizens in the Encampment for extra production and culture.  It is creeping up on the housing limit (currently 11.5) but I can drop a farm down in the 3rd ring to the north to add onto the farm triangle and get another 0.5 housing.  

The Northeast




This comprises two founded cities and the former Egyptian capital of Beta Colony.  Beta Colony is the production engine of the empire at 33.6 production per turn.  This will rise to 38.8 once Industrialization completes and go over 40 once I get a workshop and factory built here (more on these a little later).  The city is running a couple of trade routes; these are responsible for 5 production per turn.  Underneath is in need of some rice farms, a mine and an aqueduct.  Near is a bit of a problem child.  It only has two hills available and one is third ring and will be a while.  The Campus location is the highest possible adjacency in this half of the map (+3) and the Encampment is helping to hold the line here and at the chokepoint.  One potential debate is whether or not I should try to get another bombard in the area – three artillery could do some serious damage to units at Xenocrates.  

The West




All three cities were founded during my settler push around T100.  Maps and Legends had the specific purpose of getting the Colosseum up and succeeded.  I just need to get some buildings into all those districts.  Sing for the Submarine is mainly a commerce hub as it lacks production without trade routes.  The only hill is the jungle SE of the sheep.  In the event I can get a Great Engineer that provides wonder production I will be putting Great Zimbabwe on the hex NW of the Commercial Hub unless I find another wonder that would provide a greater benefit (Forbidden City, perhaps).  Kenneth was another backfill but can slowly become an industrial powerhouse in its own right.  It’s only running 15.8 production with no trade routes, but an Industrial Zone, two more mines and Industrialization can bring this city up to 25 base production.  

Cant Get There From Here




This city is by itself as it doesn’t neatly fit in the other regions.    Another +3 Campus, a Commercial Hub with a Market and an Encampment location that I have yet to build.   This is probably one of my better all-around cities with a good mix of production, gold, culture and science.  

The South




The former Preslav, my capital Begin the Begin and two settled cities.  Begin and Find are both production and commerce powerhouses and with their Campus builds should soon get some more science going.  Horse is going to be food limited until I get some more cultural expansion and farms, but it’s humming along OK for production.  High Speed needs some builder loving but can be an OK city once that’s out of the way.

The Stats




Great People




Right out of the gate I’m not going to try to compete in the Artist/Writer/Musician races.  What I’m hoping for here is that Rho21 gets the current Great Engineer and then a better one will show up that I can race to.  The question becomes what are the next Great Merchant and Great Scientist?  

What Next?

My biggest concern over the next ten turns is rho21 and Japper launching a joint invasion at Near or Cant.  After that I’ll have Darwin up on the Pantanal and can activate him for 2000.  Sulla had mentioned that the science comes in increments of 500 with overflows from each increment being lost.  Given that I will complete Siege Tactics by then and I have the boosts for Military Science and Rifling, Darwin should be able to get me to 1-2 turns from completion on Steel: 425 for Military Science (lose 75 overflow), 485 for Rifling (lose 15 overflow) and 1000 into Steel (140 short of completion).  Bonus: Japper and rho21 do not know I have Pantanal as my nearby natural wonder.  Once the city defenses are in place the threat of an immediate invasion goes down – I haven’t seen any siege units on the battlefield though I’m sure rho21 has a couple of them.

Both of my opponents are being kept afloat in the science race by Geneva.  I have four potential military options here:

1) Build up a battleship fleet with a couple of destroyers, kill Perseus and then continue to Geneva.
2) Try to sneak a large land force onto the northwest coast, probably cavalry and tanks, with support from a couple of battleships to take down Geneva’s walls.
3) Submarines.  I’ve previously confirmed that, despite the visibility issues discovered in PBEM 7 with privateers, that these types of units are not visible adjcent to or within enemy territory unless a unit is next to them.  The AI also doesn’t know about the GUI bug.  Now, there’s one tile that I could park a sub on that no one would reveal the unit.  However, that would take forever if it were acting alone.  A better option would be to try to sneak a couple past the city-state using that tile and then have up to six attack at once.  Since they are a ranged unit I’d need to bring other units along for the city-kill.
4) Get nukes, drop one on the city then move in with cavalry or ships to raze before they get killed by the fallout.

I think some combination of subs, battleships and land units might work.  Once I get the current round of district builds completed I’ll have to figure that out.  Find might be seeing some more action with Press Gangs.

As for Japper and Rho21, the latter is not conquerable as long as Geneva is alive as I’d never get far enough ahead in tech to  be able to deal with the DotF bonus.  Japper, OTOH, is completely conquerable:




He has 8 cities crammed into here.  Waffles (the former Brussels) would be tricky to take given the terrain, but moving on Kapsalon and then continuing east would work.  In the screenshot above I am guessing that Japper’s capital is the city in the center with the large border visible on the edge of the fog.  I think the idea would be to take Kapsalon, whatever city is NE of Kapsalon, then take the capital and then hold on defensively against whatever Japper (and rho21) throw at me.

[TheArchduke]

I think aiming for:

- Darwin
- Battleships
- Whilst keeping Japper busy by going south with half your army is the way here.

Now, keep in mind. Your mini-fleet did not cut it and neither will 3 battleships. You need to get about 10-12 frigates going for a reliable battleship offensive imo.

[suboptimal]

Darwin should be in the bag - projects only gain 4 turns' worth of GSP and rho nor Japper can catch me there.

Regarding Battleships, I agree I need a bunch if I'm going to take Geneva. As I look at it there's effectively a race between my ability to build frigates and rho21's ability to get to Steel. All of what follows assumes Press Gangs is slotted:

- I could get two frigates out quickly at Find (two builders do remove-chop-mine on the lumbermills), each Frigate after that is a 6 turn build time
- Slow build one each at Harborcoat and High Speed (possibly supplementing a chop at High Speed) that'd take 13 turns though a forest chop at High Speed would get one out quicker
- Welcome could, in theory, buy a coast tile, builder-rush a harbor and start getting out Frigates in 5-6 turns. However, that process alone would take about 15 turns and delays Terracotta Army in the meantime.
- This all also means delaying Steel unless, by some miracle, coal is not already hooked up when I complete Industrialization.

Four battleships with Bombardment (from the TA) would be sufficient to take down Perseus pre-Steel in one turn as long as the city strength at or below about 60 (DotF does not apply against city defense). I could then back off for a bit and wait for additional battleships to arrive before dealing with Geneva.

Another thought would be to get out 4-6 frigates to upgrade to battleships and then start on privateers for upgrades into subs. The battleships would then take down the walls and the subs could finish the job. I'd still need something melee-capable to get in there to take the city, though (cavalry from the east? Ironclads?) I suppose with the battleships and subs I could bait rho into bringing his forces to the coast and then turn their guns on all of them (assuming Perseus is taken out first).

Rho21's milpower at the end of T149 was 973. He's got 470 parked at Xenocrates and about 100 (two knights) up at Perseus. I have to assume a good portion of his reserve force is at Menaechmus. What about taking four battleships across the sea, taking Dinostratus, and parking a musket in the city (or, more aggressively, Apollonius to the south)? I don't think he's heavily reinforcing those cities at present and it'd take a turn or two for him to get units over there. Of course, part of that assumes that City Defenses pop up in a city that you conquer when you've got Steel and I seem to remember an issue with that in PBEM 7 (?).

[TheArchduke]

Also any longterm conquest is unfeasible, just raze the stuff you can conquer militarilly.

Wasting time with Perseus is a fool´s errand. Have you not learned your lesson from the dead frigates by crossbows?

You seem to hold axis y ( which is his military) plan your military on axis x and assume he will do nothing from now on into the future.

Either attack Geneva or somewhere where his crossbowmen are not massed.

Imo you should probably also attack Japper with ships, Geneva is just too damn secluded and this time he WILL see you coming for Geneva.


Rho has sufficiently shown that he is not a soft target and not to be trifled with.

In short (4 battleships? Won´t cut it)