Ok, I have a lot to add but no time to do it.
Bobchillingworth made me an offer that I am considering. I'll post the full exchange soon. For me to consider it, he told me what defenses I will see in the city, two warriors, one newly built. I set up a sim and ran it 25 times, and here were the results:
Turn 1 with 2 left
Turn 2 with 1 wolf left
Turn 1 with 2 left
Turn 2 with 2 left
Turn 1 with 2 left
Turn 1 with 2 left
Turn 2 with lucian left
Total failure. First 3 attacks failed to damage and Lucian did not attack.
Turn 2 with lucian left
Turn 2 total failure
Turn 2 with lucian left
Turn 2 with 2 left
Turn 2 with lucian left
Turn 2 with 2 left
Turn 1 with 2 left
Turn 2 with lucian left
Turn 1 with 2 left
Total failure
Turn 2 with lucian left
Turn 2 with 2 left
Total failure
Turn 2 with 2 left
Turn 2 with 2 left
Turn 2 with 2 left
Turn 2 with Lucian left
I played these sims a little differently depending on the combat results(like I would in game.) I mixed them up a little but generally I would attack with the two 2 strength units, then Lucian. If the 3 strength wolf had decent odds, I might attack with him first turn also. If the odds for finishing the city with the wolf weren't great, I'd end turn. Lucian usually got 2 promotions, and then he'd go for the kill.
This added up to:
Quote:4 failures. In 3 of these Lucian died, in the other all three other units died without impact and i didn't attack with Lucian.
6 complete victories. Lucian and the stronger wolf both survive and the city is taken immediately.
7 two turn complete victories. Lucian and the stronger wolf both survive but the city is taken after Lucian is promoted.
8 two turn victories with 1 survivor. 7 times Lucian survived and the Wolf died, one time Lucian died but the wolf killed them.
I'm probably going to just kill him instead of accepting the offer. 84% odds of victory are pretty good, and that's without optimizing the tactical order(though I think I'm pretty close.)
Getting another city now while it's still early enough for the Doviello to matter is probably better than getting more cities later(and better developed.)
Ellimist Wrote:[COLOR="Teal"]To the Bobchillingworth of the Lanun, masters of the swishy seas, Ellimist sends greetings.
Your people seem to have settled dangerously close to the camps of the Doviello. Whether this was bravery or foolishness will have to be determined by the laws of nature. Clearly, the only answer for this is to challenge the master of Innsmouth for supremacy.
Don't be alarmed by the howls that disturb your citizens. Lucian will spare those residents of Innsmouth who deserve to be spared, while removing the weak from their midst. He invites any worthy challenger to stand in his way.[/COLOR]
Bobchillingworth Wrote:[COLOR="Blue"]Awesome, just who I wanted to start next to :P
Falamar fears no man! His nails are manicured, his hair conditioned, his hands well-moisturised! He pities the fool who would dare to interrupt his bubblebath! Tell Lucian to bring it on, and prepare to receive a grooming he'll not soon forget!
Lucian's a barber btw, right? I mean, that is why he has that giant razor he lugs around (a little oversized if you ask me, but who am I to judge to tools necessary to shave barbarians as unkempt as yours), yeah ? Y-yeah???[/COLOR]
Bobchillingworth Wrote:[COLOR="Blue"]Okay, well I know I just sent a "bring it on" response a few hours ago, but having now seen that there's a scout involved too I think my chances of survival are at about 40%, and so I am forced to deploy my SECRET DIPLOMATIC WEAPON.
Ahem. I had planned for a contingency like this from the very beginning, although I had hoped it wouldn't come to pass. I'd like to offer you a deal. Spare me, for about the next 90 turns. In fact, help keep me alive in case someone else comes by seeking to destroy my empire. At about turn 95 I should be able to switch to Hyborem, and then my old empire is yours to do whatever you see fit with it. I promise that I'll leave you with at least three cities to capture (tests showed that I could build several more of course, but after four cities they start to slow down the tech rate), fully developed coves, and some farms & probably plantations too. I'll be happy to empty my cities before I make the switch to the Infernals, allowing you to mop up Ravus or whatever poor AI takes over for my old civ. I would request that you agree to kill any Savants I can produce, though. You'll also capture the Veil Holy City, of course. I'm entirely willing to work with you regarding the placement and number of cities I found before jumping ship, although more cities past a certain point means a longer wait before you can take them.
We can discuss the exact terms further if you're interested, of course, but the arrangement I have in mind would read out like this:
* The Lanun and Doviello will sign an NAP and MPP until the Lanun are able to switch to Hyborem (or some reasonable cut-off date, if the former is to vague)
* Before switching to Hyborem, the Lanun will abandon their cities and leave them open for capture by the Doviello, which will be accomplished with a minimum of effort.
* The Doviello will agree to kill and Lanun Savants spotted on sight.
* As Hyborem, Bobchillingworth will sign an NAP with the Doviello, to last for an amount of time we can discuss later.
What do you say? Figured I should send this to you before you might decide to pop that worldspell (and thus have invested yourself in fighting me). So I sort of composed this in a rush :P
-Bobchillingworth[/COLOR]
Ellimist Wrote:[COLOR="Teal"]To Bobchillingworth, Master of the swishy seas, Ellimist sends greetings.
This is a very interesting proposal, I will definitely consider it. Pirate ports are definitely a tempting factor. I'm currently at work and will deliberate further once I have a chance to view the save.
I was hoping for better odds than 60%, but if that is indeed the odds after using the worldspell, then I may take the offer. I will run some simulations once I am able to see the garrison of your city. I will be declaring war regardless this turn, as a means of getting visibility on the city tile. For all I know you are bluffing and it's empty.
One concern I have is with regard to fairness. I'm not sure how I feel about the ethical implications of such an arrangement. This is my first (solo) PBEM and will probably set the baseline for my reputation. Another concern is the logistics of such a deal, I doubt whoever takes over the Lanun(if you are Hyborem) will simply allow such actions to take place.[/COLOR]
Bobchillingworth Wrote:[COLOR="Blue"]Hey,
I happened to be checking my email, so you get a quick reply :P
By all means, feel free to declare- as you'll see, the city has one warrior defending right now. Another finishes next turn. Like I said, I think you'll have odds to take it, but even if you do there's a good chance of losing Lucian, and you'll likely have to blow the worldspell. My plan allows you to skip on off to the next target ;)
The ethics issue has already come up in my thread, since I posted the approximate details of the offer I sent you before I had even played turn 0, as this plan was always my diplomatic ace-in-the-hole. In sum: while some people are disappointed that I'm so willing to abandon Falamar (in a game supposedly intended to show off the poor dregs leaders of FFH), I don't anticipate that anyone will come away from this with a tarnished reputation. If there is any lurker blowback, I expect to be the sole target, since I was the one who came up with the plan in the first place. Leaving behind a weak empire shouldn't be too much of an issue for anyone- after all, that's the naturally consequence of any Hyborem-rush play. I'm just going to make finishing the Lanun off a little bit more easy for you ;) I believe that outright gifting would be definitely unethical though, so you will have to capture anything you want for yourself.
About logistics, if I have about four-five cities, it shouldn't be too hard to arrange. Position scouts or something to take most of the cities in the first turn (I'll empty them first), something slightly more beefy to take the capital / anything you can't hit in one turn, and then some melee units to kill and savants I can produce. In the worst-case scenario you'll be facing warrior garrisons, which will be more free exp for your Sons of Asena than any real obstacle. Going with the reputation thing, since I don't want to be a huge dick to Ravus, I'll shoot him an email before the plan is completed letting him know what the situation is. Most likely you'll be destroying a crippled, hapless AI.
I'm not going to be crushed or anything if you decide to reject the plan and try to destroy me- considering the civs / leaders involved in this game, I knew as soon as I got Falamar that I was target #1 for everyone and a bloody death was the likely outcome if I couldn't reach Hyborem in time. But I think that inheriting a second empire instead of conquering an unimproved size 1 city (potentially losing Lucian and/or your worldspell in the process) is a pretty good deal, and the sort of boost that Charadon needs to compete with pretty much anyone else.[/COLOR]
Ellimist Wrote:[COLOR="Teal"]To Bobchillingworth, Chief Scoundrel of the swishy wet water, Ellimist sends greetings.
Lucian tells me that those who ask for mercy are too weak to deserve it. I suppose we'll put this to the test soon enough.
I have consulted with 25 of our shamans and 21 of them assure me we will be successful in liberating the citizens of Innsmouth from the shackles of civilization. Due to this, and other auspicious signs, we will respectfully decline your proposal of providing future prey.
I will be posting my thought process and reasons for making this decision in my thread. I'm hoping you'll get a chance to read it soon.
Thanks for putting this game together and allowing me to take part. I regret that you may be eliminated from it so early.
I really appreciate the creative ideas you provide. The "Gotta Catch 'Em All" scenario seems particularly inspired(though I haven't tried it yet.)
This particular format, (pre-choosing leaders/civs, having players sign up, and then randomly distributing the leader choice,) also seems very promising.
Maybe next time there will be cooperation between us
Ellimist, Pack Alpha of the Doviello[/COLOR]
Okay, I thought a lot about whether or not to accept Bob's offer. Basically, he would develop several cities for me, then basically gift wrap them and I would take them after he went demonic. This would help me a lot... 90 or so turns from now. But what the Doviello need to be able to do is strike hard and fast very early, and this offer wasn't going to help with that.
Plus, pretty much the only way I'll be able to win this is through conquest, and eliminating 4 other players is going to be tough. If I accept Bob's offer, I'll simply be delaying the need to eliminate him, and I don't think my odds to do it later will be better than the odds I'm seeing right now. The main problem is that Bob's plan doesn't fit well into my Doviello game plan. The way I see it, there are certain requirements for me to achieve if the Doviello are going to have a chance to win this thing. Getting a very early second city and quickly eliminating a rival will go a long way toward this goal...
The worst case scenarios(losing Lucian) aren't even game over for me, I have some ideas on how to proceed after this and losing Lucian won't have a gigantic impact on them. Lucian suffers from a major handicap in this map, he only has one movement per turn and the speed is quick. By the time he can make his way to another civilization and attack them, they'll be cranking out defenders and better weapons. I'll need either superior numbers or(and) superior speed to have much of a chance at taking out whoever my next victim is. I think wolf riders might be a promising option. There is a goblin fort next to my capital and if I can get the necessary techs and collect gold, I can potentially summon a significant number of wolf riders all on one turn and then surprise somebody.
After that, I may be able to roll over the other two players if I'm lucky but I'll have to be very careful not to let my score rise too much or I'll lose one of the few advantages I have (barbarian peace.) Hopefully the opposition will be able to keep up a big enough tech advantage to erase whatever score advantage I might gain from capturing extra cities early on. If I do lose peace with the barbarians, summoning Hyborem myself may be another option. I don't see the elves or vampires trying to do it on this map, and the dwarves will probably go for RoK.
Overall, without even considering the ethical implications yet, there were too many reasons why I shouldn't take the offer compared to the reasons why I might take it.
Sent this to the Khazad:
Quote:[COLOR="Teal"]To SareIn, Alpha of the Khazad pack, Ellimist sends greetings
We recently learned of a Lanun conspiracy to commit piracy, theft, and other unsavory actions. Due to this, as well as a general bloodthirstiness on the part of Lucian, we have declared war and expect to quickly destroy the Lanun menace with the help of our canine friends.
If you have any information regarding the location of possible conspirators, elven or otherwise, please don't hesitate to inform us.
May your halls be filled with singing and your vaults filled with gold. May your enemies be starving, lost out in the cold.[/COLOR]
Mostly I just want to keep him informed and maybe learn where the elves are. I'm thinking they are likely to the west of the Lanun. They might be my next target if I can reach them in force before their worldspell comes online.
Okay, still waiting on the turn, but I've been doing some more thinking.
Quote:Summoning Hyborem myself may be another option. I don't see the elves or vampires trying to do it on this map, and the dwarves will probably go for RoK.
It occurs to me that, by the same logic I'm using here, the Lanun wouldn't be going for Hyborem either. This map seems great for them, with a decent coastline and very very good terrain. Yet, obviously, that's exactly what Bob was hoping to do, apparently from the start. I would venture that the elves and Khazad are just as likely to go for Hyborem, with the elves being the more likely of the two. I doubt either of them will actually do it, but I should be prepared for the possibility. Especially if either of them founds the Veil.
Other than that, I've been considering the tactical situation, and I'm not sure if I had the fortifications correct for my sim. During most of the tests, I would attack with both 2 strength units and then with Lucian. Depending on the fortification level of their second unit, it may be better to weaken the first warrior and then attack with Lucian, saving the second "fodder" unit for round 2(if needed.) After Lucian is promoted, it may not be necessary, and 2-move units will be handy. I want to put the actual numbers in a sim before I make a final decision. I'll probably do the original plan, but more experience for Lucian is tempting(to go for a 2 turn kill from the start.)
I've also been thinking about worldspells...
My own worldspell is about to be used, and I have no regrets. This sort of a situation is exactly what I would hope to use it for. Sure, I'd get more wolves using it later, but could they possibly be a more decisive factor than they are right now? I doubt it.
The Lanun worldspell isn't available to them until optics. So I'm not worried about it unless this attack fails spectacularly.
The Khazad worldspell helps them without harming anyone else. So I'm not going to bother worrying about it either. When they use it, there will (probably) be no effect on me.
The Elves and their worldspell may be more problematic. It will basically make it impossible to rush them(once) after they have Fellowship of Leaves. Due to this, rushing them before they get access to it may be important. First I have to find them, however, and then it will (probably) be a long walk until I can get to them. Depending on the timeframe and the strength of whatever forces I can put together, it may or may not be possible to kill them before they can use it.
The Calabim worldspell,on the other hand, is guaranteed to have a big impact. I don't think the Calabim should even qualify for a "dregs" game such as this. They probably have one of the best worldspells and they can use it without any technology requirement. I've been working tbe 2F/2H ancient forest instead of the 3F/1H one because they are likely to erase any growth I might achieve anyway. (It's not that I'm avoiding growth, I'm just not prioritizing it.) Their worldspell is likely to give them a major boost in a few turns while significantly hurting everyone else.
Ultimately, all I can do is be ready for the inevitable River of Blood which is probably coming soon. March of the Trees may be possible to play around or circumvent, but I doubt it.
Ellimist Wrote:[COLOR="Teal"]To SareIn, Alpha of the Khazad pack, Ellimist sends greetings
We recently learned of a Lanun conspiracy to commit piracy, theft, and other unsavory actions. Due to this, as well as a general bloodthirstiness on the part of Lucian, we have declared war and expect to quickly destroy the Lanun menace with the help of our canine friends.
If you have any information regarding the location of possible conspirators, elven or otherwise, please don't hesitate to inform us.
May your halls be filled with singing and your vaults filled with gold. May your enemies be starving, lost out in the cold.[/COLOR]
SareIn Wrote:[COLOR="SandyBrown"]Umm, the vampires are about to take their scout and walk it into an
empty capital (mine) , so it's sort of a moot point. I was about to
write Mist an e-mail encouraging him to go take it from Ichabod (who
is using an enraged scout). Good luck!
As a parting gift, we are all arrayed around the inner circle of the
map, starting from the top-left and going clockwise:
Dwarves - Vampires - Doviello - Lanun - Elves
-Sareln-[/COLOR]
So, if all goes well with the Lanun situation, we will soon be down to 3 players before turn 15. I'm not sure how I can compete with the Calabim if they have 2 cities this early, especially when they pop their worldspell.
The Calabim already have significant advantages over the rest of us, and here they get a (totally) free city to match any advantage I might get from my worldspell.
This is frustrating.
Why didn't SareIn prepare for this possibility at least as much as the Lanun did? If his capital is truly empty, then he must have sent his initial warrior off exploring and not built any more of them.
I really should be paying more attention to the C&D... I might have known who was prepared for a rush and who wasn't.
Hopefully I can still mount some sort of attack against the Calabim, but it seems doubtful. They will have 2 cities that are (probably) distant from each other, and the game speed is quick. They are also aggressive, which nullifies the only real advantage I have from my traits. Unless I can pull some ridiculous moves out of nowhere, this will probably be decisive.
Maybe if I can eliminate or ally with Mist, we can do something to stop Ichabod before he gets Vampires and/or Losha. A couple of cities in the central floodplain area can have his vampires into the triple digits on exp very fast. I don't know of anything the elves or doviello can do to stop Ichabod if he makes it that far.
Okay, I've been doing some more thinking about a long-term Doviello strategy post Khazad. I can't really come up with a convincing scenario that could lead to beating the Vampires. So, it occurs to me that perhaps I shouldn't eradicate the Lanun just yet. Bob's Hyborem shenanigans may be worth another look.
I'm still not sold on the idea, but it's tough to know which plan is the best for the Doviello.
If I do decide not to kill the Lanun, I will be renaming Lucian to "Brave Sir Robin."
I couldn't get home until late and by that time Bob was no longer available to chat.
Upon loading the save, I noticed that apparently Ichabod razed the Khazad capital instead of capturing it. I don't understand why he made that decision but it's good for me that he did.
I went ahead and attacked Innsmouth and was successful, the city was captured with "best case scenario" losses.
Well, Mist, Ellimist, how's the interest to keep going with this game? 3 players is such a bad number to play a game like this, especially when it happens so early.
Of course, if you guys want to keep going, I'll keep on playing as best as I can. But I don't think we'll have much fun with it, especially since the outcome of a 3 man's game is usually so obvious.
Why is 3 players awkward? Don't many PBEMs start with 4? If 3 players is so awkward, why did you raze your neighbor's capital?
How is the outcome obvious? I thought the Doviello sucked after the very early game. The Calabim and Elves both have very strong late games.
What's with this quitting attitude. I thought the Realms Beyond spirit was about not quitting when the odds were against you.
Mist Wrote:Well, if I have the dimensions right, Ellimist has good odds to knock both of us out with little difficulty. And very good odds to choke us back into stone age. I don't mind playing on though, so I'm fine with whatever you guys decide.
This is on quick speed. So if i show up near your city, you'll probably have more defenders produced by the time I can attack it. I got lucky with Bob because of the hut map, I saw him before he saw me and I could divert my forces to arrive together. Not only that, but it will take awhile for my units to go anywhere 1 space at a time. I don't even know the exact location of my remaining opponents, but the vampires don't seem super close.
A choke? How effective would that really be? This map has so many good tiles that tile improvements are basically extras. The unit maintenance woukd hurt me as much as them.
Ichabod Wrote:Yeah, it would be very unfair to Ellimist after he reached such a good advantage. But I'm not really interested in playing a 2v1 situation, which is bound to happen in a 3 players game.
If it happened by turn 100, there wouldn't be much of a problem. But turn 10!?! That's rushing for you !
Darn right it seems unfair. I know I'll probably be in basically AW until technology advances beyond the Doviello's chances.
Not only that, but I used up my worldspell. The Calabim have a strong one they have yet to use and the Ljosalfar have one that will be a real pain if I attack them.
Yes, I know I obtained an advantage by getting a very early second city. It was supposed to be an advantage! But as of right now, the other civs have plenty of advantages of their own.
Pitboss 4 spoiler:
This reminds me of the way people talked about Plako's insurmountable advantage after he took a city from his crazy neighbor. People(Rego) were blind to LP building nearly every wonder in the game because Plako managed to get an early advantage by taking a second city.
I don't know how to respond to this. I don't want to make 2 people play a game they aren't interested in, but I can't believe they're talking about quitting after (shock!) the Doviello rushed someone. I wouldn't be anyway.
I can see (kinda) their point of view, an early second city is a big deal and I managed to get one before my civ was obsolete. But I can see some major challenges ahead for myself. I won't be able to keep up in tech, not with higher unit and city maintenance and the barbarian penalty. The cities are a good distance apart, and it will take awhile before I can really make both of them productive.
If I keep going, I'll be the big bad wolf. This is crazy, are the Doviello laughably weak or unfair crazy strong?
![[Image: fightingwolves.jpg]](http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/8366/fightingwolves.jpg)
, so it's sort of a moot point. I was about to![[Image: Brave_Sir_Robin.jpg]](http://mtglair.de/img/python/Brave_Sir_Robin.jpg)
