[SPOILERS] Will: Thread title to be decided

[CML]

The whole point of the doomsday machine...is lost if you keep it a secret!

[WilliamLP]

The crowd is starting to settle their second cities now. Harry whipped a settler, so that's why he revolted. I'd be surprised not to see a score increase for him T30.

Very soon the human barb threshold will be reached, which is 50% of players settling if I remember correctly. I'll have to watch that, and start thinking about fog busting placement. I think I actually want a barb city spawn on the NE peninsula tip though, to save a settler. Hope those brutes dotmap for me correctly.

I'll be a few turns behind the settler-geist, but hopefully my head start on road infrastructure and early granaries can make up for it.

On mystery in this game is why TBS is behind the pack. I figure he has probably been warrior-choked. I can't say I blame anyone, if you're going to fight that guy, the cradle is exactly the optimal place for it. Or even the uterus, strangle him with the umbilical cord while you still have a chance.

[WilliamLP]

I found Elkad to the south:

He's actually closer than Harry, merely 12 tiles to the south. I scouted him from the SW, which hopefully confuses the heck out of him. I assume it was his scout I found in the belly of the wounded lion I encountered. This would explain why we haven't made contact yet. At the beginning of the game I thought I was looking at a south coast, but it was really just a widened river sort of thing. I'd be stunned if there weren't another player to the west of him.

I don't know anything about Elkad. He's Agg/Exp, quite similar to my traits actually. Except probably slightly better economically but doens't have the PRO archers that make him annoying to conquer early. He doesn't seem like an engaged really bright sort of a new player but maybe I'm wrong. This guy could be cutting practice for Samurai, I'll need to do some more research on him. I wouldn't have to compete with Harry to eat him up probably.

For the opening land grab, the grass deer between us is on the center line. I think I like the plains hill 1SW of the clan if I can get that site. It would lock down a future fishing village 1E of the deer too. The hill where the warrior stands feels a little too forward, easy to cut off, and is poor for a dot map.

Here's the home area:

I can't say I'm pleased by the copper reveal. It would be so much better if it were near a potential forward city with more resources. The obvious spot to settle for copper now is 1S of the crab. 1SW would allow piggy-backing on the capital food (see what I did there?) but that pig is already overloaded and food isn't quite abundant enough to feel like that would be a win. And the copper wants to be in the first ring. These cities are going to want barracks anyway for culture, but waiting 10 turns for a border expand might be a problem.

I need to consider whether I could slip in Archery and settle a third city anywhere but on copper. With two neighbours, maybe not.

My plan is to get pottery for turn 38 when I can double-whip and chop a worker into a granary in the capital. After building one more warrior for a sense net. With cheap granaries, happiness is going to be more of a bottleneck than population, so I'm going to want to avoid 1-pop whips when possible.

I already moved one worker to improve the sheep for city #2, but I should have thought harder and simmed an immediate chop there to get a granary at size 1 instead. Improving food resources is the reflex, but getting a full granary box to size 2 is worth a full 11 food, while the sheep is worth about 1F1H per turn versus working the flood plain. Then again, whipping the granary from size 2 can't be that bad.

Improving the sheep with 2 workers was an option too, but I wanted one to accelerate the capital some more. I'm not playing a wonder game here and I think forests are best chopped early when the hammers are a larger percentage of the empire.

Okay, after a little peeking at the scores on CivStats: I missed that Harry settled their third city last turn! They're really going to try and abuse the Imp trait, obviously. There isn't going to be any room for them to rush here. In fact I think they may be gambling that I don't send a warrior or two over there at the wrong time. I'm not sure I should best view this as a zero-sum game between them though. If I'm going to war Elkad eventually it would be really nice to have stable trade routes somewhere. Now, Elkad, I don't see his whole history on CivStats but what I think I see makes him look pretty weak: 2 turns behind me to size 2, 4 turns behind to size 3, 8 turns behind to size 4. He one-pop whipped something (probably a settler) and hasn't settled yet. There's no way he should be that far behind with Exp. Either I'm missing something and confused or he's playing like a noob.

Completely random note to myself: In the back of my mind somewhere I should think about how soon I can scout the coast with a work boat.

[WilliamLP]

I have meta-info, from the tech thread, that a lurker played Elkad's turn a few days ago and found something significant that he wasn't immediately comfortable playing through. I wonder what that could be? Scout getting eaten by a lion probably wouldn't qualify. Maybe just a free worker where it's unclear where to go next? A wandering warrior from somewhere? I don't know if there's anything useful I can assume here...

There is a lot of strategic thinking I need to do about this game.

Short term:
- I need to decide on the third city site. Options are secure copper, settle toward Harry, settle toward Elkad. I don't feel like I need to worry as much about land grab vs Elkad because he's a significantly weaker player, or it seems that way. With Harry's third city down already on T34, he must be stretched thin in terms of worker turns and tech and vertical growth. Thus I don't think he could be planning any sort of rush that I wouldn't have time to react to by looking at his power graph. 
- On the other hand, I could think offensively, what could an axe or two on the faster side do if they marched around a little and the only things in the way were warriors?
- For tech, I can't see any reason not to run Agriculture to Animal Husbandry. Archery this soon would probably be overly paranoid.
- I'd probably rather scout to the southwest now and meet another contact, then see what Harry is doing on his border, vs seeing what's south past Elkad.
- I'm thinking to run 4 workers before the third city, particularly since I have wheel this early and the worker turns will never be useless. An unimproved third city is probably a cost vs a gain in beakers, and shaving turns off of Agri and AH is worth quite a bit here.
- Should I show Elkad the warrior to the north of him or not? I'm thinking it doesn't matter, he's not going to do much that would be informed by knowing I'm the player to his north.

[WilliamLP]

If I could get a setup like this I'd be pretty pleased:

- Green: I'm thinking this is what I have to do next as city #3, unless Harry has already invalidated it with a plant of his own. It would be the biggest defensive issue with the border, and create a very tense game, but this isn't Sim City, is it? The hill to the SW would be a nice defense vs 2-movers, though a liability against a slow stack. But slow stacks don't work that well in multiplayer anyway, unless you have a crushing advantage already.
- Yellow: Lovely site for food, and if I can get Green, this may follow. Possible city #5
- Orange: Copper city I'm going to need soon. I thinking it will be city #4.
- Red: Gems are delicious but no timing urgency.
- Grey: Meh, hoping the barbs build this for me. There could be hidden seafood?
- Light Blue: Commerce city and fortress vs Elkad. My concern is he'd try to take the hill 1SE of here if I wait too long. Possible city #6
- Brown: Eventual food powerhouse, not the worst Moai city ever, though very far from the best obviously. No urgency and it needs a border pop to be good.
- Blue: Central fort city, taking this is again very contingent on what Harry does. He's going to be very wary to put a blocking flatland city on our border though. This site is not the best for econ but for a city like this I think defensive placement is more important. Vs a much lesser player I'd consider 1NW on the plains to grab the corn and pig. But as marked I'm already trying to get more than my fair share with the implied AGG bullying.

[WilliamLP]

I think Harry has three warriors and (though the graph lags a turn) cities size 2 + 1 + 1. My best guess is he's researching AH, not Wheel first. So I think I can rule out an axe rush entirely.

With Elkad, I can't rule out a maniac play though (like settle on copper). He just saw my warrior to his north so he should know roughly where I am. But he's playing so many turns behind it might not matter anyway, and there's a decent chance he's being disturbed by someone else.

Short conclusion, I feel safe delaying copper to city #4, and getting Agriculture without archery. Probably AH too, I'll re-evaluate in a few turns. City #3 I'm going to try and bully the stone location by having 2-3 warriors in the zone, so that I can win a settle race through force.

I really do _not_ want to lose a game by being insufficiently paranoid.

[WilliamLP]

Harry found me with his scout finally, he popped up 1W of the sheep in the capital. My closest warrior is two turns away, so he could deny me the sheep for one turn if declares. If he does that he’s never getting peace back and this game becomes a pure duel to me. I expect him not to though, we’ll see.

[WilliamLP]

Harry usually plays his turn immediately, but he waited it out a while. I wasn't going to double move him (in peacetime) or let him get a break in case he moved next to a warrior of mine. Speaking of which:

His scout appeared at X. I was worried about a choke on the sheep and my warrior at y was a little out of position, so he could have declared and choked it for one turn.

But he moved NW-NW. This is some _really_ aggressive, scouting my friend. And that move, without visibility on the sheep SW of TBD, was quite frankly a poor play, since it was an obvious move to have a warrior ready to intercept such a thing.

I thought about not taking the 90% shot, but even as passive as I usually am, that scouting is so egregious, and the incentive so clear, that it wasn't really a choice. Mapping out every square in my back yard is too valuable a thing to just give up for nothing. Time to roleplay Tokugawa, haha.

And, flawless victory! First blood, and the better odds I got here are a very real advantage of the hard to quantify Aggressive trait.

I offered peace, and I expect him to refuse, look around, then re-offer.

So this game is going to be a tense one!

That power spike of Harry's has to be Wheel and another warrior I think. There's no way it could be AH and two warriors, because I don't think he'd invest that many hammers into warriors this soon. I thought his tech was too slow for Wheel but then, placing two immediate cities, that would slow his tech rate a little despite a high GNP score.

It's pretty clear now that my next city has to be for copper and ASAP. It means I actually get to use my Fishing tech too! Harry could have a marching axe rather soon. Though it's a relief that he doesn't seem to have a city directed forward at me yet.

I have two workers cottaging a floodplains, and a granary went up in the capital. I wouldn't be surprised if I had the first granary and cottage in this game.

Meanwhile:

I don't know who orange is. It could be OT4E (I know nothing of him but apparently he's no joke). I'll find out next turn, it's not critical enough to analyze RGB values . It looks like he's 14 tiles from Harry (same as me) and 13 tiles from Elkad vs 12 tiles for me.

Obviously I hope it is a strong player, so Harry can't commit much toward me without being punished.

Notably, Harry has not met Elkad. There is a hint of coast to Harry's west, so I wonder if we're in some sort of arrangement of conflicted squares. But with 25 players that can't be the whole map concept, by obvious discrete math.

[WilliamLP]

My scout scouting:

By the interesting mechanic of culture on a previously revealed tile popping up, I can see on mouseover that this is indeed OT4E, as Qin (Ind / Pro). Just looking at his Pitboss history, the results are extremely impressive, and he's obviously good enough to win games against top competition here. And this, in a variety of game settings and era starts, meaning he has very high adaptability and game sense.

He got a bad roll getting Carthage by default as sloppy thirds, but he took Qin as the first pick.

I haven't let him see my scout yet, but I'll probably make contact next turn and then move out of sight.

(Aside, wow I would sure have taken a double first-ring food site like where my scout stands vs what I've got right around my capital. And he has immediate silver too! Maybe my capital site itself is above average though, I don't know yet.)

So now that I see the other players in my zone, I can re-evaluate my position a little: From a strategic perspective I actually really like it!

- Harry has to keep an eye on an extremely strong player who is a neighbour, and one okay player (me), and I don't, as much.
- And OT4E has settled toward him! Two IND leaders scrapping over marble, I love it!
- OT4E has the dubious Numidian Cav, just a C1 horse archer in this mod. I don't know if that's enough to swing his tech path even a little.
- I have the dream of a relatively green, unengaged player to the south. (He has completely missed a turn already, and is going with default city names, pretty clear signal of non-engagement.)
- Actually, I'm having my doubts that Elkad will survive long enough for me to get Civil Service and Machinery so I'm going to have to keep an eye out on OT4E rushing him (Numidian Cav?) And make sure I can get some spoils myself if this happens.
- I have a pretty decent pocket of land that is completely uncontested.
- A multidirectional land contest favours my traits. PRO means more efficient defenders, and AGG for attacks and counterattacks over land.
- The two strong players both have IND which devalues the trait for both of them!
- For a game where players are this close, AGG should help in the land grab phase.
- Nobody near me has a lightning fast early game. (e.g. Joao)
- With a living scout, I have an information advantage over Harry and Elkad.

The only thing I really don't like is it doesn't feel like the land immediately around my capital is very strong, most especially to the NE.

I wonder if my elephants are the norm, or something exceptional in this game. I'd guess everyone has them, even though I don't think war ele's are particularly overpowered in this mod. In practice they seem to serve as a beefier and more expensive spear most of the time, not so useful on offense.

So far, I'd say my start has been competent, but I certainly could have done better with micro. E.g. ending up at 23/24 food when I could have tweaked the earlier game to grow, and things like this. Oh well I guess this is why it's called "micro" heh. Oh and I wasted two scout moves a while ago with a misclick. On the bright side, if I was going to misclick something into the woods, that was an excellent choice.

[WilliamLP]

Wow, I spot an unengaged TBS in this game. I'd guess that guy has won so many games he isn't going to find the interest I would in trying to make the best of a losing position. I wonder if someone scout-choked his first food source or something? Up to me, choking with a scout would be banned because all it seems to do is add variance to the start based on who happens to go which direction. And whether you start next to a warlike maniac. (But sure, there is opportunity cost, losing scouting info you really need in the opening.)

I'm a little concerned about how unengaged Elkad is. The last thing I want is a veteran sub to take over.

I was reading the start of OT4E's thread in PB30 (with 2metraninja). The dude is one who will analyze, micro, then analyze and micro some more, and consider lots of options including the unconventional ones. E.g. he's capable of something like a bold chariot rush. But the saving grace is, his starting techs are even worse than mine are! I'd rather start with more expensive Wheel than Mining. And his Fishing start, like mine, slows down any early game rush options far too much. His start should resemble mine, focusing on early granaries as PRO. He may not be as fortunate that he can rely on one food tech as long as I have either.

I'm kind of surprised 'Henge hasn't fallen yet. Perhaps everyone who thought to try for it is having "uh oh" moments realizing how much this map is going to need defensive play.

This may not be the game for wonders, but let's consider for completeness. Because one thing I have going for me is that I think my tech rate will be pretty good, with working a cottage already and a head start on my road network for internal trade routes.
- Stonehenge. Nope, whoever gets it in the next couple of turns needed to plan it long ago.
- Great Wall. Well I do have a potential stone source. The Great Spy points are terrible in the early game. (E.g. you want first GP to be a scientist or engineer or something, and doubling the points on that sucks.) The general points are wonderful for a defensive war, is the main draw. But otherwise it's basically a waste of hammers. Barbs are not going to be a problem here.
- Pyramids. These are still very mysterious to me, even after playing the game for like 20 years. Great engineer points are wonderful. In this mod the draw is still Rep for the happy cap and GP economy I guess. I don't have a site that screams GP farm. And I see 3 happy pre-Calendar, and 3 post-Calendar. This is not terrible. So I think this is not the place to think of 'mids.
- GLH. Well I will have a number of coastal cities, and a Fishing head start. The place for this would be my copper city, but it doesn't really have enough forests to make it fast enough. It doesn't want a normal lighthouse that badly either with only one seafood. Needing Masonry early is a limitation too.
- Temple of Artemis. I used to think this was the most underrated early wonder, and I still believe it was a key thing that kept me in the game in PB13 with the extra tech and GPP. I like it because it grows with you a bit in the trade route value, and it's useful forever. Prophet points are scarce and you're almost never sad to spawn one, even as a GA puzzle piece later on. Combining an attempt for this with a sprint for Judaism might not be totally crazy. Just fairly crazy. I do have a reasonably fast early mid-game and with this many players getting an early religion is fantastic. Hmm...
- Oracle. Forget it, this one is a trophy early wonder, and it's for the IND civs with close marble and obsessive micro plans. Lower cost of Metal Casting may devalue it slightly. But even getting math with it is amazing.
- Colussus. This is for an IND civ who wants earlier MC for the forges anyway (and perhaps grabs it with Oracle).
- Hanging Gardens. This is for if I want to beeline math anyway. I'm not sure if I do. Because I have wines and don't need early catapults so badly the Monarchy line might be more appealing.
- Parthenon. Requires the very expensive and dubious Aesthetics line. It's a great bonus forever though. But I think someone with more niche play around GP in mind will grab this before I would.
- Schewedagon Paya. I forgot this even existed, don't know that I've ever built it.

Writing this list has made me intrigued to beeline to Monarchy via the Monotheism path, after AH. Even if I don't get the religion I have wines and the extra happy cap from HR is always useful. I wonder if I could even delay archery for this. It's only 69 beakers though.