(June 29th, 2017, 15:10)Mardoc Wrote: Absolutely, I'm following with great interest, in enough detail to make me nervous about making any substantial relevant comments .
Good to hear! I`ll do my best to keep the lurkers amused. Maybe a war of conquest could attract even more lurker attention!? For the moment we`re not quite ready for that, but if dtay can`t keep up with the rest of the field, then maybe..
A lot of permutations are possible in the tactical situation around Muqa; for instance, whether one or more Zulu workers are visible, and where. I'll think about it some more during the Californian afternoon and hopefully post something before the Norwegian morning!
Okay, so let's look at some possible scenarios here:
1) Best case: dtay has withdrawn his Settler and Impi at least one tile north without otherwise occupying the banana (even if another unit is visible elsewhere). If peace wasn't offered/accepted and we're willing to assume he has no chariot nearby, we could even move the axe to the bananas to ensure no junk city is planted (or just move the Axe to the Copper for greatest overall safety) and move the Settler to the Copper (with the Chariot, just in case, if we moved the Axe to the bananas and there's an Impi in view; with the axe on the copper, the chariot can hang around or move back toward home).
2) Second best: dtay has withdrawn his Settler at least one tile north without moving any other units into view, and offered a Peace treaty, with his Impi still on the Bananas. If we can see that he's moved the Settler away before doing so, I would definitely accept such a treaty, move our Settler to the Copper, and withdraw the Axe and Chariot. If we can't see his moves before accepting or rejecting the treaty, I'd probably reject it and go to one of the other options, potentially re-offering peace. Then if he takes advantage of peace to plant a junk city ~north of the bananas that makes our copper plant impossible, he'll regret it a lot more than we will, frankly.
3) Still good: dtay has withdrawn his Settler at least one tile north without moving any other units into view, but left his Impi on the Bananas and offered only a Cease Fire (or not made any peace offer or offered peace that we had to reject to see what's going on). In this case, we can move the Settler to the Copper, accompanied by the Chariot so the Impi can't take the tile, start another axe at Muqa, and offer Peace ourselves, again on the theory he's not going to waste his Settler on a complete junk front city on flatland that will never control its two best (and earliest) resource tiles (because of our holy city).
4) Slightly Annoying: dtay still has his Settler and Impi on the bananas, still alone, with no other units (and no Workers!) moved up. At this point, I'd want to consult the power graph to see if he had a significant bump recently. If not, we should be safe to move the Settler and Chariot into position and start another axe at Muqa, but it's getting riskier. The axe needs to hold position to ensure the Impi can't move in on Muqa, and we can't offer Peace without allowing him to build the banana city. Alternatively, we could move our Chariot to cover our Axe (against the Worst Case Scenario Chariot attack mentioned upthread) and either leave the Settler in Muqa to await the results of the upcoming turn or move it toward the Corn/Pig site, conceding the northern site but delaying dtay's plant to give our holy city a couple more turns to gain greater control over the region. In the latter case, Muqa might want to start a Spear instead of another Axe (but either would be okay).
5) More Annoying: The Settler has withdrawn but a second Impi moved into view while the first stayed on the bananas. Hilariously, because of their combination of two moves and mobility, this would mean we still couldn't afford to move our Settler up to the front, even if the second Impi isn't on the bananas. Assuming the one on the bananas has promoted to Shock, we wouldn't even have odds attacking with the axe (because of the jungle bonus). In this case, we'd definitely start another axe at Muqa, and could choose to either wait one more turn with the Settler for the situation in the north to resolve or concede the area and head for the pigs/corn site. Either way, probably leave the axe and warrior in place for now.
6) Most Annoying: The Settler and Impi haven't moved, and either another unit (Impi, Axe, or Chariot, and maybe even Worker) is in sight OR dtay has a significant power increase visible on the graphs. Muqa should definitely start a countering unit (Axe for Axe or Impi, Spear for Chariot) to whatever is visible (either is okay if a Worker is visible) but at this point, we probably should withdraw the axe and Warrior to the desert hill - but probably not offer peace. If the visible unit is a chariot, we would also need to move our chariot to the desert hill so the axe wouldn't end up defending against his chariot in case he (e.g.) moves up workers, roads, settles, and tries an attack.
I don't think that quite covers all the possibilities, but it should give you a sense for my thinking. You may well see something I missed in any case - a point which also goes for my notes for the workers around there:
- If we're falling back to the Pig/Corn site, I think you have a plan for the Worker near there already, and I approve. The Worker on the Silver could either move into Muqa (en route to help with the pig/corn city) or to the forest next to Muqa (to help out with Muqa some more, potentially by actually chopping).
- If the Settler is staying in place for just one more turn, maybe move the forest Worker 1W and put a turn into a chop? The Worker on the silver could then either move 1N to a forest (if we're confident - and want to show dtay we're confident - we'll be able to claim the copper location soon, and no Impis are visible anywhere around the lake) or move to the plains forest right next to Muqa in case a chop is needed ~quickly.
- If we're finally safe to move the Settler to the Copper after all, the Worker from the silver should probably move 1N to the forest (if no Impis are visible around the lake or if we have an enforced Peace treaty) - or move to the grassland cows, start a road, and CANCEL orders if that tile is safe but the forest isn't.
ALSO: I belatedly noticed a mistake in the microplan I posted above; I incorrectly recorded when Toregene was due to grow - it did so (to the exact breadslice) this turn! - and therefore also when it should have started its monument. So: If we lucked out and Buddhism spread to the city this turn, we can just whip the Spear. If we didn't, we should probably start a Monument and work (say) the lake tile in the first ring for a turn before whipping that.
I can't wait to find out what happened on the dtay front - hopefully tomorrow morning, but it's looking like I may be up way too late again ... so on the plus side, maybe that means I'll get to find out tonight!
We were greeted by a cease fire offer by dtay. As I had no vision on the front, the offer was declined. It turns out that he moved his settler and impi 1NW! No other zulu units in sight.
It looks like dtay got the point. As he didn`t found a city he`s probably going SW or W somewhere. I moved up our settler to the copper tile, it was joined by our axe. I decided to play safe and not leave it vulnerable to a chariot. We`re still at war. My thinking is to propose peace next turn after our city is built. Yes, he could still build a city to invalidate our spot, but as you say, it would hurt him more than us. Oh, and note that barb warrior to the NE. Our axe should take care of it.
Muqa started on a new axe, the other cities are following the micro plan. The worker N of Borte moved 1W and continued a chop (just 1 turn left). It could go back to Muqa or finish the chop if it speeds up the granary in Borte. The worker on the silver in the vicinity of Muqa moved 1w and skipped a turn. That`s sad, but I couldn`t find anything useful for it to do if it`s to be ready for making the cows pasture next turn. Well, as long as we get that greedy border city I`m more than satisfied, even if the worker actions have been a little sub optimal the last couple of turns.
Wow, nicely done! One option for the Worker would have been to move into the forest 1N of the silver (in front of the barb) after also moving the Chariot onto the same tile. Losing one worker turn and improving the cows before chopping is fine though. I'd also offer dtay a White Peace this turn: What would we gain from waiting? [EDIT: I guess I can see it. If he thinks we made a mistake by offering peace, he might move his Impi back to the jungle, see our Settler, and found his city in place on the grassland, probably claiming a second-ring food somewhere out in the fog and invalidating our copper plant when he'd otherwise have moved further west for first-ring resources. I don't think that's a likely scenario even if he does move the Impi back, but I could see it; it's not like we lose a lot by failing to make the offer.]
Regardless, it looks for now like we've secured the desired aggressive border city with a timely show of force, even against dtay of Tokuzulu - impressive job!
I didn`t move the worker and the chariot to the forest because of the (admittedly small) chance of a disastrous rng result. It`s just not worth the risk imo.
As for not offering peace: I don`t want him to found a city to stop us from building our own city in the desired location. If he does regardless, we have a chance to get rid of it immediately.
We`re now in a much stronger negotiating position than last turn. Let`s offer him peace next turn. On our terms.
Good points. As always, "what I think I would do" often differs from "the best thing to do." I'd have taken the 99.1% odds, but as you note, they're not a guarantee. I'm with you on the peace offer. Next turn should be another one to look forward to!
Note a chop won't speed up the Granary at Borte if we follow the plan upthread; following what we've put into it already, it should complete the turn after whipping the Worker (I think with a little overflow from the granary too) regardless. I think I'd move the Worker there back toward Muqa next turn, but I'll try to put together an updated microplan while I'm finishing my stretches.
(On the other hand: If we'd moved the Worker, Chariot, and Warrior all to that forest, leaving the axe to cover the Settler, there'd be no chance of losing the Worker, and I'd say also no chance dtay would have risked his Impi at 0.4% odds attacking an axe in a forest across a river, even if he found out it wass a possibility. What you did is still a good move though; getting a 4/2/1 tile up and running several turns sooner than otherwise, even though we "waste" a worker turn to get there, is clearly a good thing.)
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