RBP3 - [SPOILERS] - Team DIM (Mehmed of HRE)

[Ilios]

Glad to hear you Dazed, if you could bring yourself up to speed, we'd appreciate your input. You can see a lot has been happening!

[dazedroyalty]

That is my goal. I've read all the posts but want to log into the game and see what it looks like there as well.

[meatbalz]

hi dazed, welcome back. hope all is well. the game has been hectic. while you can never cover all the bases with 16 teams, i really think we've put ourselves in an excellent diplomatic position***, with 2 (maybe 3) blocs competing to have us as long-term allies

aztec+india
carthage+england
(possibly) egypt, although egypt has been less explicit about working with us long-term, it's more a feeling i have

of course it also means battle lines have been well and truly drawn. our three main problems as i see them
1) rome; if as ilios thinks they're working with sumeria then hopefully india's antipathy to sumeria is mutual and the praets head that way
2) inca; not scary for now and we have time to react
3) france; i get the feeling the next turn or 2 are critical. we have an NAP renewal on the table. france hasn't met anyone. if they don't meet anyone in the next ~2 turns, they renew. if they DO meet someone not in the tech cartel, they immediately get recruited to the "anti-cartel" and we get no NAP and plan for a full-scale attack on Midas

depending on the diplo situation i'd love to send one of those chariots we're producing in the early T60s to meet portugal, also because East remains the direction we've scouted the least. i would have loved to have made the northern pigs/whatever site our 5th city at some point but with it being bordered by 2 of our enemies, that's much less appealing. East (or even SE towards France) might be more attractive options depending on what terrain we reveal.

also- there's a second river sheep by england on a pretty nice site. it's a high-quality filler site. we're soon going to be at war with inca (N neighbour), have hostile rome NE, and hostile france SE. when the time is right for serious diplo talk with england, let's sound out how willing they are to concede the site to us given our precarious relations with our neighbours.


***caveat: assuming we survive the next 30T

[Ilios]

I have moved Francisco NE as requested by Ruff and ended our turn. MB, I don't know if you saw, but we can place a city between the Sheep and the Wines, to get access to that happy resource.

[dazedroyalty]

hi dazed, welcome back. hope all is well. the game has been hectic. while you can never cover all the bases with 16 teams, i really think we've put ourselves in an excellent diplomatic position***, with 2 (maybe 3) blocs competing to have us as long-term allies

aztec+india
carthage+england
(possibly) egypt, although egypt has been less explicit about working with us long-term, it's more a feeling i have

of course it also means battle lines have been well and truly drawn. our three main problems as i see them
1) rome; if as ilios thinks they're working with sumeria then hopefully india's antipathy to sumeria is mutual and the praets head that way
2) inca; not scary for now and we have time to react
3) france; i get the feeling the next turn or 2 are critical. we have an NAP renewal on the table. france hasn't met anyone. if they don't meet anyone in the next ~2 turns, they renew. if they DO meet someone not in the tech cartel, they immediately get recruited to the "anti-cartel" and we get no NAP and plan for a full-scale attack on Midas

depending on the diplo situation i'd love to send one of those chariots we're producing in the early T60s to meet portugal, also because East remains the direction we've scouted the least. i would have loved to have made the northern pigs/whatever site our 5th city at some point but with it being bordered by 2 of our enemies, that's much less appealing. East (or even SE towards France) might be more attractive options depending on what terrain we reveal.

also- there's a second river sheep by england on a pretty nice site. it's a high-quality filler site. we're soon going to be at war with inca (N neighbour), have hostile rome NE, and hostile france SE. when the time is right for serious diplo talk with england, let's sound out how willing they are to concede the site to us given our precarious relations with our neighbours.


***caveat: assuming we survive the next 30T

I saw that you mentioned earlier preferring to work with Carthage and England over India and Aztec and that was, at least in part, due to them being similarly new to MP. Could you expand on your reasoning behind favoring that affiliation.

Since Rome isn't in our tech alliance, then have we discussed the possibility of simply choking them? If our whole tech alliance committed one archer or some other simple (non-warrior) unit, I think that could work out really well.

France is an ongoing concern to me simply because I do not trust their leadership. I don't see them gaining a huge advantage to committing to a war right now, but I also don't put it past them. It would be really nice to know more of the map. What does the C&D department say about their power? I think a chariot will be better than an axe on defense. I'm not worried about a spear-rush and a chariot can take out an axe if they send it our way. If they build enough units to send both, we should see their power go up in time to prepare.

[Ilios]

Turn has rolled over, Ca, in is moved into position, settler to follow...



Oh come on...

The odds are good, but I'm not sure we should move the settler already. I'd be pissed off though if we need to delay the city one turn...

I'll let you guys check it out for yourself, there's no hurry as Ruff sent us a message to bug out with Pizarro.



Haven't moved him yet either. We move east?

I've set all EP's to France, because cost to see demogr increased to 55 (we're at 52)

[meatbalz]

3 thoughts

1) odds of attacking the Q might be 1/200, but if the Q were itself attacking it would have much worse odds. can we confirm with ruff whether inca did indeed whip an axe? if so it might make sense for ruff to keep his unit 2 tiles from capital and see if the axe follows, we could then "reverse swing" by with our warrior and divide up their forces. this would keep the inca capital (defended only by a Q) under pressure forcing them to either whip again or suffer a choke.

2) what are the combat odds for the lion vs cain, who's unpromoted and unfortified? not too shabby i'd suspect, possibly 20%? if so that's too rich for my blood. hey, it might even make sense to use cain to attack the lion in that case, if we lose we know the settler's delayed, win and we can move him + tricky comes to cover. it really all depends on the combat odds (don't have access to them)

3) one way or another we need to get a message to inca, it's been 2 days of radio silence at both ends i can draft one shortly if you like ilios

[Ilios]

1) odds of attacking the Q might be 1/200, but if the Q were itself attacking it would have much worse odds. can we confirm with ruff whether inca did indeed whip an axe? if so it might make sense for ruff to keep his unit 2 tiles from capital and see if the axe follows, we could then "reverse swing" by with our warrior and divide up their forces. this would keep the inca capital (defended only by a Q) under pressure forcing them to either whip again or suffer a choke.

Good thinking, I'll send that over to Ruff.

2) what are the combat odds for the lion vs cain, who's unpromoted and unfortified? not too shabby i'd suspect, possibly 20%? if so that's too rich for my blood. hey, it might even make sense to use cain to attack the lion in that case, if we lose we know the settler's delayed, win and we can move him + tricky comes to cover. it really all depends on the combat odds (don't have access to them)

We can use Cain yet as I moved him this turn. So he'd have to attack next turn. Not sure about the odds, I'll check if I can't find something online.

3) one way or another we need to get a message to inca, it's been 2 days of radio silence at both ends i can draft one shortly if you like ilios

Sounds good. Maybe we can blame our radio silence on the intense diplo with 9 different teams, and the fact we'd both assumed the other would send the greeting. (sounds plausible to me)

[Ilios]

I used this combat calculator:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=148354

We have over 95% chance of winning against the lion. (including 50% bonus from forest and 10% bonus against barb animals)

A scout would have only 75% chance winning in the same situation...

[meatbalz]

I used this combat calculator:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=148354

We have over 95% chance of winning against the lion. (including 50% bonus from forest and 10% bonus against barb animals)

A scout would have only 75% chance winning in the same situation...

if those odds are correct (95.6%) then my feeling would be to go for it.

england lost a warrior to a barb at 4.4% odds, surely lightning can't strike twice this early in the game? (famous last words)

it's a massive risk nevertheless. the thing is i think there's a 5% chance at emperor the barb DOESN'T attack this turn (more likely than us losing), which would mean we delay settling yet another turn if he stays close to the warrior.

my vote is move but we need votes from all 3 of us on this.