[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Well, unless I get stuck with lame-o Francis Drake. Wow, I didn't even realize that Yi's ironclad came with a free embolon promotion. I think I should probably go ahead and retire him immediately if I can get him, a 77 base strength unit for free is not something I'm in a position to pass up, even though it means I will only have one GA to boost my ships.

TAD's England ran away with this era of PBEM4 by taking all the GAs in a similar fashion, but I don't remember the Yi/SC combo playing much of a role, if any, in that game. I wonder why? The Embolon ironclad armada that combining the two would yield will seriously have 94 CS before modifiers, enough to easily one-shot any of my ships while taking almost no damage in return. Maybe voting for double GA points was a mistake after all? But, then again, I don't like our odds against TAD with no Renaissance GAs at all either...

Anyways, I did go ahead and pass so I can hopefully block that from happening. One of us getting the Yi ironclad and the other getting a caravel armada is a rough draw, but if TAD gets to stack them I don't see how we can win this war.

[ljubljana]

Turn 120 - Phoenicia

In other news...



I build another quad at Linear A, and immediately upgrade to a frigate. I'll do the same at Linear B next turn, I imagine, and will then have an almost-respectable 4 frigates over here with which to attempt to make something happen. Woods chop into the IA at Cuneiform gets us to within roughly 40 hammers of completion - not enough to micro to finish on this turn, but I will have it done in 2, which might not be in time to help our first strike but will definitely be in time to impact the course of the war.



Geneva finishes a quad too, and look how much this city doesn't suck now! Just one Serfdom builder transformed it from a colonial backwater into a bona fide core city in terms of productivity.



This turn's Important Screenshot - here are TAD's ship deployments as of now, with my trader conveniently scouting the southern group from within TAD's borders for just long enough to help us plan this attack . Unfortunately, the southern deploy is very defensive behind all those islands, and I doubt we could do enough damage with a first strike to make it worthwhile due to the way our biremes will get jammed up in the choke. On the other hand, though, what we could do is use the first strike turn to occupy these chokes ourselves, which might impede TAD's ability to translate numerical superiority into actual combat success.

What about the north, though? It's actually closer to my current group of ships than the south, and looks much more vulnerable defensively. In theory, I could swing these Embolon biremes around now with the 4 frigates following, head onto the sea when Cartography pops, and try to surround and kill the northern group (which will otherwise turn into very dangerous Embolon caravels) before they can upgrade. We might also be able to take down whatever city TAD has there if it doesn't build its walls in time, with the warrior/horse/sword (note to self: I really need to move the sword next turn) tagging along for siege support.

What do you think of that idea? We probably will need to decide on it in the next 1-2 turns, as otherwise our biremes have to pull back for upgrades. It's definitely risky to wait to upgrade the bulk of what will be our strongest caravels for that long, but that might not be so bad if we can kill some of TAD's embolon galleys in return. If we went with that plan, I'd probably upgrade a few biremes but mostly get frigates while I wait for the Embolon biremes to get back to safety, and maybe also try to sneak back into Writing on the Wall with frigates on the first turn of the war as well.

EDIT: The alternative is probably to upgrade all the Embolon biremes when the tech comes in and do the first strike at whatever ships try to defend WotW in the meantime or at WotW itself. Unfortunately, I think the travel time is too long for us to upgrade caravels and also have them reach any of TAD's ships before they can upgrade unless TAD is really dragging their feet with Square Rigging. If we do go for that, I will at least get to pillage the Dockyard (that I built!) and the mine for a few more upgrades. I will probably need to move the horse or warrior right up to the border even before I declare if I go for that plan, though, so I can land on the mine the next turn and pillage after that without needing to delay capture of the city. Oh, and I should move a 1-charge builder up (the one at Linear B) to chop out Limes walls in case we do manage to retake the city.



Still no Square Rigging from TAD, great. This is the kind of delay we will need to have a chance of making a first strike work.



Marco indeed lost their redlined city, ouch. I guess the promotion advantage on those Jongs might be one reason sub is still competitive here. For whatever reason there aren't any Renaissance ships in this area, at least not that I can see, and those galleys and quads will obviously melt like butter should sub choose to go for Aquemini next.

[Woden]

I say, if you can upgrade and get a significant force on the north side of TAD, it might draw his fleet over there and we can take the fight to him. Either that, or force the fight near WotW so you can use the islands to limit the number of attacks.

[ljubljana]

Turn 121 - Phoenicia



Okay, some things are happening. I made another frigate, and timed a bunch of builds to finish in 2 so I can do Limes walls everywhere. Geneva is one turn behind but that's okay, it only needs 3 turns for its walls anyways. Linear A's trader finished up, and I rerouted it to Abjad - still undecided on whether to take another +16 GPT route with China or to go to Cuneiform. In this case, I actually think the latter is pretty compelling, since we really need this city to grow onto its hammer tiles to help make ships in Press Gangs. There are two cities where I think that logic holds, Linear B and Abjad, and a third, Linear A, where it's plausible - everywhere else is already pretty much working max hammers, so the other TRs will probably go towards money until such time as we no longer need to optimize for immediate military value.

Oh, and WotW starts walls. I don't think they'll get done in time even if TAD is already in Limes because the city's so awful, but man...I still just cannot believe I let myself rationalize giving that city away for absolutely nothing because I thought TAD would actually accept a DoF in return without just taking the obvious screw-you option . Talk about shooting myself in the foot diplomatically... Maybe in two or three games I'll finally stop beating myself up over that .





Two-part survey of TAD's defenses in the north. I think I should pull the biremes back for upgrades, swinging over here without them carries too much risk of getting cut off and isolated from the defense of our mainland. On the other hand, still neither frigates nor Square Rigging from TAD yet, in what continues to be a good sign. I feel comfortable saying that we will now definitely get at least one turn of war where TAD does not have Cartography.



Ouch...those Jongs are damaged, yeah, but MPF lost a ton of milpower in return. I think Aquemini may not be long for this world... One can only wonder what CMF's frigates are doing now - perhaps wandering up north to burn Chinese cities in return? CMF and suboptimal trading city razes without accomplishing much in terms of actual conquest is, of course, the best-case scenario for us and TAD - now if only we didn't have to waste that advantage bashing our heads together in a pointless war . I mean, surely it doesn't seem pointless to TAD, but like...are we really the softest available target for them right now? Really? With our two great admirals, no other ongoing conflicts, and obvious awareness of and preparedness for the upcoming attack? If they defeat us decisively, the game will be all but over, sure, but the odds of that happening can't really seem that high to them, can they?

[Woden]

Turn 120-Vikings
Start turnoff with...
   

I swap out the melee production card for maritime industries so I can start building more boats. At home...
   

The capital switched off the harbor to a quad, so I can get one more out before Square Rigging finishes. I will have a total of 3 to upgrade to frigates. Not that many but I am going to rely on caravels and will start producing longboats as soon as my cities get walls up. I plan on chopping out the harbor at Odin when the builder get there, about the time the quad finishes. In 6 turns, I will have 2 more harbors finish, which will activate the district discount and I can chop out 2 encampments where I have them pinned. That should help my defenses at Loki and Thor. Even if they get bombed out, I can still have a crossbow, protected, on the tile because I doubt TAD will bring anything to pillage it. Other reasons for encampments are that nobody has built any yet and I should get the 1st general, which will help defend by boosting my crossbows and they can add much need production to my cities.

Looking west...
   

If you can attack WotW on the first turn, it might be better to free Akkad, then have to hold the city against TAD. They will allow you to hit walls with your Caravels and do full damage. As for going south or north, I think if you can go north, it might be better. Going south, he will bring his northern fleet and pinch you. If you go north, it might give you enough time to hit his fleet before he can bring his southern fleet around. Alternatively, you could hit WotW and then use the island defensively, attacking out from the small island in the north and the main island in the south. You will have to make sure he doesn't pinch you in from the north and then you have no escape route.

Alternatively, going south is not that bad an idea. You can use the islands down there to stall any advance by using the pinch points. Your may objective is not to get crushed and hold out until I can get Cartography and join the fight with Caravels. If we can hold our own until we both hit modern shipbuilding, we will be able to out produce TAD and should win the war.

Finally, I spy something odd...
   

I am not able to recruit a great scientist because it is assigned to someone else. I figure 2 people have passed on it but the weird thing is that 4 people are shown to have enough points to recruit. Not sure what is going on here. I did run into some similar in PBEM18, not being able to recruit a GS even though I have enough points to recruit them. It must go in turn order. It looks like Australia and Indonesia passed and England must be the one that is forced, since Russia plays after England. Who knows. I am not sure why everybody is passing on Abu, isn't he the one that provides +20 healing if you are close to him. That is really good in a war game.

4 turns until I complete Square Rigging and I start Exploration. I need to make sure I finish Exploration the turn after Balder finishes the Harbor to activate the district discount. Otherwise, I might side track to Military Training to get Berserkers done. It will add a turn to Cartography and I am not sure if it is worth it right now. We will have to see how thinks shake out.

[Woden]

TAD finished Square Rigging and spent 1,451 and used most of his and Kaiser's niter (they 7 niter combined). He had a capacity of 130. Don't remember what the upgrade cost of a quadrireme to a frigate is but he did a massive upgrade and still has over 1,200 . Also, CMF faith bought an Admiral and the next one is the ironclad GA. You should be able to grab the one after (the fleet one?).

[ljubljana]

Unfortunately it will be a few hours until I can play the turn, but do you remember which GA CMF got? If it was Drake, I should be able to get the fleet one, but if it was Santa Cruz I might be screwed and have to settle for Drake. Still, that would be better than TAD getting both Yi and SC...

Upgrade cost of a quad to a frigate is 160 iirc, so looks like 9 frigates. We can expect a similar number of caravels when they get Cartography. We're going to be outnumbered initially, probably by something like a 3 to 2 advantage in favor of TAD. The real question will be what happens with those frigates over the next few turns - I'm hoping they try to link up their navy and/or defend WotW with them, which would give us a shot at a very solid first strike.

We will probably have one turn of war in which TAD does not have Cartography. They also may get it on the first turn of war but have to spend that turn upgrading ships in port. That will give us an opportunity to establish a tactical advantage, but our ability to convert that into a higher win probability will depend on what TAD does...

[Woden]

It was Magellan, the one you passed on. He provides 1 copy of luxury and 300 gold. The points needed for the next GA went up to 310, so no GA for Kaiser.

[ljubljana]

Oh, so I should hopefully get first dibs at either the fleet one or at passing on Drake unless TAD laps me. This does mean TAD will likely have an ironclad when war breaks out and I won't yet have the next GA to counter it, ouch! Not sure what I can really do about that though unless you think I should consider buying Yi (almost certainly a bad idea). Well, maybe we will be unreasonably lucky and TAD will advance it towards Akkad in such a way as to allow us to do some damage to it at least...

[Woden]

Maybe in two or three games I'll finally stop beating myself up over that .

I commented more in the lurker thread but I think it was a good attempt and something I could have tried too.

I have to agree, it was a good move. You can't always predict what another player will do, especially if the player chooses poorly. TAD basically killed his game because he guaranteed an endless war against us. I thinking he is betting on winning by conquering us but I don't think that is going to work, we get more bonuses on building ships. I think TAD's ego got the best of him and he made a bad decision more than you made a bad decision on sending the deal.