[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[MindyMcCready]

I guess that your next city plant ambitions helps to inform the next tech.

HBR is very, very useful against Ichabod.

Yeah I know, I just need to sneak in long term investments sometimes because it's not usually likely that you'll think it's the most pressing thing to do at the time.

Yeah, that's what those long weekends are for,...but I'm back now! :LOL:

If we can shoo Bacchus away from that barb city, then landing that plus the desert hill by Ichabod would be a major coup. I think that the need to do that exceeds most other priorities and HBR could really assist with that.

Mono,....we don't need the culture and the 25% bonus is only useful when we don't have to build troops in every city.

Then there's the need to protect ourselves from Bacchus opportunism in nabbing Retep's cities. So, yeah,....I'm liking military tech more right now.

If Retep would finally do the smart thing in turning his military towards the weaker Bacchus, this game would be completely different. Retep could really carve him a new one with that 15 unit stack. Of course, I don't actually expect Retep to do this,....he only seems to like to spill his own blood. :LOL:

[WilliamLP]

If we can shoo Bacchus away from that barb city, then landing that plus the desert hill by Ichabod would be a major coup. I think that the need to do that exceeds most other priorities and HBR could really assist with that.

I think the best he can do is kill 1 barb warrior uncontested. He only has the 1 chariot, and we have 2 there, and he has no supply line.

Mono,....we don't need the culture and the 25% bonus is only useful when we don't have to build troops in every city.

The exception would be Manon which can't get 20% culture fast enough... But it's as likely as not to get a random spread by the time we could get a missionary there anyway. And we're going to want at least 2 more barracks (in WT and Traviata) and probably at least two stables, plus a couple of libraries, plus builds in new cities... The hammers OR would save isn't a tiny number.

But I can see the value of HBR too so I guess that's where we're going next. (Retep see our research, so I won't show it until we actually turn science on.)

Then there's the need to protect ourselves from Bacchus opportunism in nabbing Retep's cities. So, yeah,....I'm liking military tech more right now.

Unlike every other time?

If Retep would finally do the smart thing in turning his military towards the weaker Bacchus, this game would be completely different. Retep could really carve him a new one with that 15 unit stack. Of course, I don't actually expect Retep to do this,....he only seems to like to spill his own blood. :LOL:

Yeah, if not now, Retep seemed to have a time window where Bacchus had almost nothing. I guess he doesn't want to actually gain ground so instead picks on the one player in this game who has more of an army than he does. I'm not sure if Bacchus is on a south coast or has room to expand there (or even another player we haven't met yet), but if so he could concentrate all his military in one place, and he could probably hold from what Retep has with lesser force.

[MindyMcCready]

For Turandot building the temple - should we build a settler first? If we're planning to build a settler after the temple,...well it wouldn't need the happy.

We've just cranked out a bunch of chariots and if we intend to get HBR next then that's another feather in our cap protection wise.

Either that plains hill to the west of LT or the desert hill by Ichabod. We're in a pretty good position to try to make a run at that. We could empty out WT and stop fork defending over that way (but make sure that our east Quecha can see everything).

It also creates a very reasonable border between us and Ichabod. No room for Ichabod to cram another city in there so we both would naturally have 2 tiles between cities which helps to relieve 1-move stand-offs.

I haven't really thought this through. Just valuing the land and that location (sheep + 4FP) more than a marginally earlier shrine.

Aside but related:
Retep looks to be 120K power.
He jumped from 107K, 115K, 115K, 120K. So no HBR, that's good.

Power=120K
Tech=24K
Pop=6K
Stack = 71K (6Axe(6K) + 5 Chariots(4K) + 2 Spear(4K) + 1 Archer + sighted Chariot (4k))
Unaccounted = 19K

So Retep is continuing to lightly guard this 3 cities and we're putting together enough chariots to at least consider a strike depending on where he moves.

Regarding that horse city,...I think that that is well worth razing. If we get HA and can prevent him from having horse/HA, then our defense will again become really easy. Its true that he could plant in a better location, but then we could pillage his horse pretty easy (and cancel builds!) in return.

So basically redeploy to the Carmen-Barbiere fork defense + everything into the desert hill? If we manage to get/hold those 2 cities (desert + barb) we will have sealed Ichabod off.

We would be a little exposed to Retep in that event as, if he takes the SSE-Barbiere plains cow, then 3T later he could be forking WT and Carmen so we'd have to be a little mindful.

We do have a bit of an opportunity to use military tech to land those choice locations since Ichabod's GNP is lagging a bit due to his REXing. We may also have a bit of an opportunity to bait his phalanxes once we get HA. A scattering of chariots, might be tempting to him with his spearless defense? Of course, if he's totally spearless, we may well get to raze a city.

Ok, enough random thoughts,....I'm getting quite busy at work nowadays so I don't think I'll be able to challenge your every move anymore. :LOL:

Regarding Barracks: I saw a C1 spear,...but nothing else in what you posted. C1 Chariots are what's making you think that he's got a barracks?

[MindyMcCready]

Comparing power charts: We have math (6K) so factor that in when comparing charts. Also, based on the unaccounted power of Retep, he almost certainly doesn't have math. So I'd say rather than 80% chance that he's going for HBR we can pretty much peg that at the high 90s.

EDIT: Then there's our 2(?) barracks for another 6K. So that's 12K of power that's not really there on the battlefield. Just want to point out that our standing armies are approximately equal in power and we only appear to have a significant edge.

Yep, double checked. None of his chariots have C1. His 1 spear had C1, but the second spear that reinforced had no promotions.

So unless he's got a blue glow that's not showing up in the snapshots, I'm going to state that he has no barracks currently.

[WilliamLP]

For Turandot building the temple - should we build a settler first? If we're planning to build a settler after the temple,...well it wouldn't need the happy.

The temple is done in 1 turn, so too late. The point of the temple was more for the priest than the happy anyway, it's never ever going to be the most pressing and valuable thing of the moment so I had to sneak it in when you were away haha.

Either that plains hill to the west of LT or the desert hill by Ichabod. We're in a pretty good position to try to make a run at that. We could empty out WT and stop fork defending over that way (but make sure that our east Quecha can see everything).

I agree as far as we need a settlement plan. My gut is that the east desert hill by Ichabod is too reachy right now, and will sting too much for maintenance cost. The problem is we need enough army in the west to defend against literally everything Retep has, at all times. If I were Ichabod, I'd probably react to that plant as being too aggressive and punishable, the way I did against Too Many Kojiros. But I'm not totally sure we can't hold it, especially if we could double-chop walls or something in there.

I'm also feeling that just when Ichabod prods a city to the far east will be the exact moment Retep decides another double-attack against our core and Manon (which is a defensive liability right now). And losing it twice would be kind of embarassing!

A big question is how much is Ichabod held back by a cold war with Cheetah. Given that Cheetah has only one way to expand and it's highly contested, it might be a lot.

Other settlement options are south of Manon and backfill into seafood (that has the advantage of being cheap to support and also not needing defense.)

Ok, enough random thoughts,....I'm getting quite busy at work nowadays so I don't think I'll be able to challenge your every move anymore. :LOL:

We're fast getting to the point where posting and labeling screenshots of unit positions every turn isn't feasible as well.

Regarding Barracks: I saw a C1 spear,...but nothing else in what you posted. C1 Chariots are what's making you think that he's got a barracks?

Yeah, I saw at least 1 chariot running around with the blue glow (maybe 2, not sure), and it's quite possible some units in his stack could be promoted but he haven't done so yet.

Comparing power charts: We have math (6K) so factor that in when comparing charts. Also, based on the unaccounted power of Retep, he almost certainly doesn't have math. So I'd say rather than 80% chance that he's going for HBR we can pretty much peg that at the high 90s.

I won't get to this turn for a few hours, but Retep got a 12 point tech, almost certainly HBR now. So it's yet another reason to get it ourselves, though in the mean time I'm not so worried about building 35 hammer spears to counter a 50 hammer unit.

[WilliamLP]

So unless he's got a blue glow that's not showing up in the snapshots,

It is! You can see it in a couple of them.

[WilliamLP]

Turn:




Bacchus razed Cherokee! That was a surprise to me. Either he has 3 chariots in the area, or else I missed him killing one last turn. It's possible I did. Move southern chariot to scout:




Top defender is a C2 chariot at 1.3/4 health. I didn't have to wait and ask what Mindy would do here....




We won the 99.8% battle, but took 4 hits. We actually had a 98% chance of doing better than that! As you can see his second chariot can take a promotion and kill ours, but then our other N chariot is likely to kill his for a 2-1... unless he has one in the woods to cover, which is possible.

But anyway, attacking here isn't a difficult choice: razing Cherokee was an aggressive move that left him open to an unfavorable trade, exactly the kind of move that needs to be punished. This raises the question of why we're fighting with Bacchus over the border to Ichabod. I like how I'm somehow this game's war troll now.

As mentioned before, Retep almost certainly has HBR now. Our chariot army numbers 5 (which may be 4 next turn).




Horseback riding, we can get in 9 turns or so. (I'm showing Mono at 0% because Retep can see our research.) Another settler is due in 4, and I'm not sure where it's going to go. 3N of Turandot isn't a bad site at all. But there's no extreme urgency in it, perhaps. In the east, in a vacuum, the plains hill site (7 tiles from Ichabod's capital, 8 tiles from ours) is the best city. But again, my gut is that it's overextension and we can't both hold that and defend against Retep and Bacchus trolling.

I do feel like we do need to get a stake in the wines market no matter what happens. Maybe it's settling on Cherokee or a site adjacent to it.

I actually do think locking the borders in the east (relatively conservatively) and then aiming to take out retep is a solid gameplan. If anything I think we just disagree on the timeline: I see an attack at around maces or knights, both of which are a pretty long way away.

[MindyMcCready]

Bacchus razed Cherokee! That was a surprise to me. Either he has 3 chariots in the area, or else I missed him killing one last turn. It's possible I did. Move southern chariot to scout:

Yep, the vultures are circling a little closer. That scout was there for a reason; but it's only the reason that changed.

Top defender is a C2 chariot at 1.3/4 health. I didn't have to wait and ask what Mindy would do here....

Gold Star for you!

So is this the first military incident that you've instigated this game? Not that I really feel that you instigated it,.... hmmm,...maybe its only a silver star. :LOL:

We won the 99.8% battle, but took 4 hits. We actually had a 98% chance of doing better than that! As you can see his second chariot can take a promotion and kill ours, but then our other N chariot is likely to kill his for a 2-1... unless he has one in the woods to cover, which is possible.

It probably wasn't possible given how recently our new chariots were built, but I'm going to recommend keeping them in a stack for scenarios where a bunch of axes are protected by a single spear.

This raises the question of why we're fighting with Bacchus over the border to Ichabod. I like how I'm somehow this game's war troll now.

Yep, everyone wants to kill us. Retep, just because. Bacchus and Ichaod have the same reason though,...so that Ichabod can be undisputed local power.

I don't blame Bacchus for razing a barb city if he can do so easily,...it's just that he could do so easily because those 3 chariots were in the area to attack us. I blame him a little more for a now confirmed 2nd attempt at us with chariots.

As mentioned before, Retep almost certainly has HBR now. Our chariot army numbers 5 (which may be 4 next turn).

Chariots lose quite a bit of value with the appearance of HA. His mobile defenders dominate our mobile attackers so he may well have shut the door on that attack. Not sure how many we should continue building,....

Horseback riding, we can get in 9 turns or so. (I'm showing Mono at 0% because Retep can see our research.)

Ok.

Another settler is due in 4, and I'm not sure where it's going to go. 3N of Turandot isn't a bad site at all. But there's no extreme urgency in it, perhaps. In the east, in a vacuum, the plains hill site (7 tiles from Ichabod's capital, 8 tiles from ours) is the best city. But again, my gut is that it's overextension and we can't both hold that and defend against Retep and Bacchus trolling.

I do feel like we do need to get a stake in the wines market no matter what happens. Maybe it's settling on Cherokee or a site adjacent to it.

The desert hill gets the winese + 3 fp + grass hill + 3 forests for chops. More provocative but definately defensively better. Settling Cherokee means that Ichabod can hit us in 2 spots easily. Settling the desert hill means that we can hit him in 2 spots easily.

This is about the 5th time that you've referred to that as the "plains" hill site rather than the "desert" hill site. We are talking about the same site right? 3S-2E of WT.

There's also a nice little triple fork location in between Carmen, WT and Cherokee which I'm not so found of. Same can be said of the desert hill plant, of course, but we should be able to see it coming more eaily. If we can't land or defend the desert hill, then I'd opt for the complete safety of 3N of Turandot.

You might also consider 4N-1W of Turandot (silver) depending on how much we value coast as a non-financial. The copper from the capital would get those WB up and running in record time of course,....but we could also plant 2N-4W and borrow the horse/cow for the same effect.

I actually do think locking the borders in the east (relatively conservatively) and then aiming to take out retep is a solid gameplan. If anything I think we just disagree on the timeline: I see an attack at around maces or knights, both of which are a pretty long way away.

I agree that those should be our objectives and I also agree that timeline is the point of contention. I think that my joint concerns that the ease of which Bacchus could occupy those cities given Retep's dedication to our destruction + the wisdom of allowing 3 cities to endlessly make troops and await an opportunity to kill us is well understood by you.

Its a rock or a hard place decision of course due to the costs involved in taking out retep cities.

Other Points
1. I'm going to repeat my recommendation of forting the major fork tiles. If Retep's going to be sticking around for the longish term this is very necessary in my mind. It inhibits his ability to make opportunistic strikes against us, and frees up defensive troops and probably most importantly it protects catapults from flanking damage.

2. I know that we both like HBR,....but I still prefer construction.
- HBR is better for defending both sides of our border.
- For defending against Retep, Construction is better against the large stack that he's been showing.
- Construction is better for reacting to whatever Ichabod may do. If he planted a city, a couple of cats would be just as good or better than a couple of HA.
- Cats would allow an attack on Retep's capital should the opportunity present itsefl.
- Cats would allow us to make an attack on Bacchus should he occupy Retep's cities.

So overall, I'd still prefer the cats. Retep's HA only get the 50% bonus when attacking the cats; not when defending the stack which is probably the most likely type of battle that we'll have especially if we fort our forking vulnerabilities.

[WilliamLP]

Turn report:




- Bacchus made the expected move and promoted and killed our chariot (where the bad die roll was a problem). His chariot is now cornered though.

- Note the culture tile from Ichabod. I think it appeared in between turns (a chariot was in view) and it's a border expansion and not a new plant (lack of a score increase in CivStats).

- We also now have research visibility on Ichabod. (I've been putting EP on him, because retep has too many on us to ever get visibility, and also because he's more interesting in the long run). He's showing as saving for currency so he has Math.




Retep is still building units, obviously. So is Cheetah. I expect to see Retep's stack again in a turn or two, and as always we need to be prepared that it could either come from the NW or SW. The trek to Manon is a long one for 1-movers at least, and we'd see it coming.

[WilliamLP]

So is this the first military incident that you've instigated this game? Not that I really feel that you instigated it,.... hmmm,...maybe its only a silver star. :LOL:

Do you forget Too Many Kojiros?! Come on, give me some credit here.

Yep, everyone wants to kill us. Retep, just because. Bacchus and Ichaod have the same reason though,...so that Ichabod can be undisputed local power.

Sort of interesting is this post from Ichabod in the general forum, in the thread where players were irresponsibly ranking others:

South American Regional

1. retep
2. Ichabod

So: they're probably from the same country and they may know each other? I'm certainly not suspecting any illegal collusion (communication about the game, revealing info, etc.) but does retep feel like he's helping a compatriot to win the game because he doesn't like us? That may not be the craziest conspiracy theory ever.

Chariots lose quite a bit of value with the appearance of HA. His mobile defenders dominate our mobile attackers so he may well have shut the door on that attack. Not sure how many we should continue building,....

Yeah I agree, the main purpose of chariots has been achieved: to make it impossible to probe out with single units and small stacks like Bacchus is doing. They're all but useless against Ichabod. Also their threat is forcing Retep to run a single stack we can track. The scenario without chariots where he replaces spears with more axes, and splits it into two on either side of us is harder to deal with.

The desert hill gets the winese + 3 fp + grass hill + 3 forests for chops. More provocative but definately defensively better. Settling Cherokee means that Ichabod can hit us in 2 spots easily. Settling the desert hill means that we can hit him in 2 spots easily.

I'm not sure about that! It might mean that he settles west of that spot for the wines himself, and now he can hit several spots easily: desert hill city, WT, Manon. And he's closer to our core.

I also fear opening up the snake S of Manon for Bacchus to take, while we're defending that desert hill city. If he settles up to the wines and all that stuff to our south, now there is an awkward border!

Also admit I'm projecting what my own thinking would be: draw a line between our capital and his (and we have some awesome land) and settling beyond that, as a rule of thumb is an overextension where it becomes favorable to conquer if possible.

The maintenance distance cost is not insignificant right now. We're running at 50% now, and there are a lot of really crucial expensive techs we need.

This is about the 5th time that you've referred to that as the "plains" hill site rather than the "desert" hill site. We are talking about the same site right? 3S-2E of WT.

Yeah, just me goofing up. I'm using "plains" as a generic term to mean "dry and food poor", yeah that's it.

You might also consider 4N-1W of Turandot (silver) depending on how much we value coast as a non-financial. The copper from the capital would get those WB up and running in record time of course,....but we could also plant 2N-4W and borrow the horse/cow for the same effect.

That's a good point on 4N-1W. Having the fish is a pretty big deal though, it's a much better tile to get ramped up with than clams (and even better to have both). With fish / clam / sheep it's a potential GP farm. Also I think that silver ends up being a 0/2/5 tile which is quite a big difference from the 1/2/6 grass river silver.

Other Points
1. I'm going to repeat my recommendation of forting the major fork tiles. If Retep's going to be sticking around for the longish term this is very necessary in my mind. It inhibits his ability to make opportunistic strikes against us, and frees up defensive troops and probably most importantly it protects catapults from flanking damage.

I confess I've never built a fort in Civ 4, lol. It's 10 worker turns I think, which is a ton. I'm having a hard time seeing how we're going to have a conflict soon that involves us needing a defensive fight on a tile that isn't a city. Right now, retep still can't move in range of our stack or he'll lose with odds. I expect to always outnumber and overpower Retep at every point in this game.

2. I know that we both like HBR,....but I still prefer construction.
- HBR is better for defending both sides of our border.
- For defending against Retep, Construction is better against the large stack that he's been showing.
- Construction is better for reacting to whatever Ichabod may do. If he planted a city, a couple of cats would be just as good or better than a couple of HA.
- Cats would allow an attack on Retep's capital should the opportunity present itsefl.
- Cats would allow us to make an attack on Bacchus should he occupy Retep's cities.

Yeah, that a stack of HAs at Manon can defend anything we have in a couple of turns is a big deal, given we're at war with 3 people.

+ HBR is significantly cheaper and will come sooner.
+ HBR is useful in proactively defending against a stack of 2-movers, where cats aren't so much. If we have a stack of 2-movers the same size as Retep's it shuts down a whole lot of potential tactics because if he ever separates them we can always just trade them off.
- Catapults are amazingly cost efficient. A single one can completely turn the tide on a stack-on-stack fight.

I'm not completely sold. Also it's no secret that I'm itching to sneak in economic techs, especially Mono, Monarchy, and Sailing.

To me I prefer to go with the philosophy of building exactly as much military as we need to not lose cities, here.

Anyway the divergence starts in about 2-3 turns I think (when turning science to 100%).