[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

Oh, I didn't know you could change the city's name before liberating - good to know for the future. I guess I was under the impression that you had to respond to the "Keep City?" prompt before using the city interface at all.

If CMF is about to use our territory for a mass-upgrade against suboptimal, that is hilarious and very smart. I note though that none of those ships are going to turn into frigates, which is what he really needs to make the attack stick. Maybe they are just on pillaging duty.

I think there's pretty much zero chance that I will beat CMF to ironclads, so yeah, we will pretty much have to be saved by you getting there with raid-boosted pillages. If you'd like, I can delay some caravels to up the timetable on the Industrial/Steam Power eurekas so we can figure out where they are. Other than that, though, what are your thoughts on my ever building anything besides caravels? Campuses and IZs seem both unlikely to speed our conquest of TAD and unlikely to pay off in the face of a dedicated attack from CMF, whereas a huge mob of caravels can at least can swing around and hit the frigates while you keep their ironclads busy. But if we end up conquering at roughly the same rate and the game goes late, obviously I will need to build infrastructure to have much of a chance to contribute.

[Woden]

Once we start taking cities from TAD, I do think it best to try to get some boosts and needed infrastructure done. This doesn't mean stop building ships, just mix in some infrastructure builds too. There is a fine line between making sure you have enough units to keep pressure on an opponent and improving your home land enough to stay relevant with the other players.

[ljubljana]

Ok, sounds good. My plan then is to prioritize 2 IZs + workshops (Cuneiform and Linear B) and 2 shipyards (probably Cuneiform and Geneva, though we'll see if those builds end up being too slow). Otherwise, I think the only "infrastructure" builds I will consider before the war is really decided are the rest of the lighthouses and traders to finally max out on TRs, plus maybe the aqueduct in poor sad housing-capped Demotic.

Actually, do you have your eye on any shipyard locations or strong IZ spots in your core? My science is going to be totally appallingly terrible, so maybe it makes more sense for you to boost Steam Power and/or Industrial since you are the one who might actually get to research them. Not sure about Industrial if you don't have any good IZ spots, especially since I have to invest in an IZ at Cuneiform anyways for the TR boost, but for the shipyards or if you do have good IZ spots it could make more sense for you to prioritize them. Obviously we will both need shipyards eventually, but I am undecided about whether campus-first or shipyard-first in most spots makes more sense...probably the former since if I fall too far behind in science there will be no catching up. Then again, the two shipyard spots I have my eye on would be +8 and +10 so maybe those are worth prioritizing either way...

[Woden]

I have 2 spots I plan for IZs. They will need aqueducts to make them decent but I can build at the discount. They will be at Thor and Loki. Loki needs some builder love for chops but that is okay, I can faith buy one when the era changes. Since you will have mass production soon, I think it best for you to kick out 2 shipyards ASAP. Then we will know where ironclads are located. Probably better for you to spend some production in Campuses before IZs to help with the loss of science you will have in 7 turns.

[ljubljana]

Okay, maybe one of those shipyards will go in Hieratic instead of Geneva then - it's a significantly weaker spot (+6 vs +10), but Geneva has less production and would need to do most of a lighthouse first. As for IZs, I think the one in Cuneiform is pretty mandatory for me because it's +3 before the aqueduct and boosts all my domestic TR's and is at the discount and is at the other discount from being built in Phoenicia's GP city - it's a 4-turn build as of now. After that, I can do another discounted IZ in Linear B (which is also +3 with no aqueduct) and then a workshop so you don't have to spend hammers on aqueducts, or I can just make more ships and campuses and let you handle the workshops - whichever you think is more efficient from a hammers perspective.

[ljubljana]

Turn 135 - Phoenicia

I start moving my ships south, and it turns out that there is a way to try the straightforward approach to forcing the chokes while still having all my frigates move almost all their movement in a roughly southward direction. So I take a shot, and I think I might have gotten a highroll or two in the north because two frigate shots and an unpromoted caravel actually kill it! This was very close, at 33/32/34 damage per shot, and I'm glad we pulled it off because otherwise it would have promoted for sure. The other caravel, in the south, turns out to have Embolon, so I don't kill it but do manage to significantly damage it with free frigate shots without taking damage in return. I could have killed it with some very aggressive play, by moving a frigate into the spot vacated by the dead caravel and firing, but that frigate was about to promote and it didn't seem worth leaving it that exposed, figuring that a caravel that needs to spend the next four turns moving and then healing is as good as dead for our purposes of getting at the remaining frigates. Instead, I save that frigate and promote it Line of Battle, and here are the odds that it can look forward to against TAD's ships if they stay and fight next turn:



In retrospect, though, not killing that Embolon caravel was a significant misplay - it's not like TAD is really going to let his frigates stick around here to kill a ship or two of mine and then die horribly, and I just let a valuable ship live for no compelling reason. In my defense, it's 2 AM and I'm tired . I will try to apply that principle in future engagements - if a group of units is doomed if they stay and fight, playing aggressively is a great idea even if it leaves ships exposed, because taking the apparent good trade of killing the exposed ships commits to a larger bad trade of then losing the ships that do it.

I do not know what TAD will do now - I do not think there are any more caravels in the fog, unless he produces one mid-turn, and if so these frigates will probably all die if they try to take down some of my ships. I guess he will probably retreat west and try to link up with Kaiser while he does a mass-upgrade in preparation for another push? That is also a good outcome for us, of course, letting us start sieging down some of his cities undisturbed. Still, though, once Kaiser and TAD have spent all their gold and marshaled their forces, I do expect that we will have to fight another navy of size not too dissimilar from ours before this is all over. Just in case, I think I will promote a few more of these Line of Battle frigates as a secret weapon in the event of such a fight...



Domestically, I take a first, tentative step towards infra builds with a late Cothon at Abjad. That makes me feel a little less nervous than some of these other builds, as if I resume caravel production after it should pay for itself over the course of at least the expected CMF war anyways. The other build for which that is true is the Cuneiform IZ, which costs less than 70 effective production and will give 7 hpt for a 10-turn payback horizon, so I will probably start that next turn when the current caravel finishes. After that, though, things are a little murkier. I could build shipyards in Cuneiform and Hieratic for the Steam Power eureka, but that would take them offline for much longer, and I don't think I'm confident enough that we have TAD beat for that to seem like a good idea...

Also, I switch a few more cities onto quads - I'm hoping to get another 4-5 frigates in before the era ends. As such, I will need my niter from last turn back in 2 turns when I get Guilds - is that okay with you?

edit: Do you know if cities can fire over mountains? If TAD's frigates retreat SW like they probably should, they will end up blocking each other from getting away and I might still be able to snipe one next turn, although if The Compassionate Society can get at my ships over the mountain I will be a little hesitant to cash in on that (though not too hesitant, I don't want to repeat the mistakes of this turn!). Of course, if TAD's frigates retreat south instead, I am hoping they will run right into your fleet for an unpleasant and deadly surprise... I guess some other things TAD might try to do include moving all his frigates to the other side of TCS and firing at us over the city (in which case I guess we should just try to go around and flank him) or just put one frigate in every city to annoy us (in which case we do more or less what we were already going to do, just more slowly and with higher casualties).

[Woden]

Turn 134-Vikings
Start turn off with pillaging the plantation at WotW, then taking the city...
   

Akkad lives again. I put 3 more envoys into the city state for a total of 6. I have 2 more in case TAD or Kaiser have more than 6 to take control. My remaining ships sail south. My longboat still survives and pillages another trade route. Not sure why Kaiser hasn't sent a boat over to take him out. He does have a frigate and caravel hang out in the wets where your spy is located. I am not really sure what Kaiser has been up to as his partner is getting is ass handed to him. His MP really hasn't increased much, still sitting below 500. I know he has some land units as there are 2 archers protecting plantations on there coast.

I think my 2 caravels near Akkad are going to look for pillaging opportunities in the north and keep an eye out for any boats coming around the north to cause troubles while we are in the south. I might actually have 1 more boat sail north and hit the lumbermill at Official Visit. There is a pasture, mine, and plantation in the cove east of his capital that could provide some nice pillages.

Over by CMF, I have a scouting archer and sees that CMF is making good use of Work Ethic...
   

I am sure he is running the faith doubling card and getting good value out of his holy sites. Also, look at the yields and that coast. Seafood almost every other tile and a bunch of tundra to help his civ out.  No wonder he is rocking the game. 

Cities can't shoot over mountains and have to follow the same LOS rules as units. The only difference is that cities and encampments gain elevation level when built, i.e. if on a flat tile, it acts like a hill tile for LOS.  They can shot over a hill tile but not a forested hill. I don't think we will see much of a naval push again from TAD. We might see a smaller navy if he is gathering forces in the north while we take his south but it takes a while to build ships now and he could only build quads if he shorts his niter, he has to build caravels. The frigates and caravels we seen at the start of our turns is most of his remaining units. His MP is (was) 425. Two caravels and 4 frigates are 290 plus whatever the promotions contribute. That means 2 caravels in the wild or maybe 4 quads. He might have a few token land units that could make up his remaining MP. Once we get these frigates taken out, he is toast. I think it best to keep some ships (maybe the ones by Akkad) in the north. He may try to make a pillaging run to make you make repairs instead of building ships. As I said earlier, I am sending 3 ships to the north to pillage and if you bring a few frigates along, we maybe able to take a few cities once we start working on his southern holdings.

One good thing by bring Akkad back to life is that as long as I am suzerain, I don't need seige units to do full damage to walls. I brought that ram all the way across the ocean for nothing. Well, I will keep him around just in case somebody has a bunch of envoys saved up.

[ljubljana]

I am a little skeptical that making a big division of our fleet (eg with frigates in both the north and south) is going to pay off - if TAD plays this correctly, his frigates will retreat to his cities this turn, at which point they will kill one frigate per turn combined with the city fire while I slowly siege down his 70-strength walls. I think I will need every frigate I can get firing at whichever city we end up targeting, and probably some of your super-caravels (vs. walls) would be nice too. Even then, I am very worried that we will stall out between the interlocking fields of city fire down here and the ability of TAD's frigates to hide behind islands or inside of cities and fire out at us. I don't really think we will have any chance to take a city in the north unless we can commit a similar amount of force to what we have down here, although to be fair I have never done this before and could be wrong about that.

As for pillaging runs, that's a good point, and I do think TAD will probably try this. In a few turns, I should have a few scouts in place the west (Artemisia + redlined sword) to alert me to that if it materializes. I'm hoping that I'll be able to mostly hold it off with whatever new units I am producing at the time, though if TAD's milpower starts going up or if your northern pillagers spot a larger force I will reconsider that.

[Woden]

Turn 135-Vikings
Turn has finally got around to me. One thing that kind of bugs me over the last few weeks is that sub plays his PBEM21 turn right when he gets home from work then holds this PBEM for 3 or 4 hours longer before he plays. Play your turn man, or at least switch it up. These 2-day turns suck and really pull me out of a game. 

If you got the turn around 6 pm CDT, would you be able to play early? If I remember correctly, you would play fairly early if the turn was passed early. I ask because it seems Roland's sub is usually around pretty late and I have seem Marco around fairly late (relative to me) in the evening. We could get the turn to TAD in his morning, which I believe is his preferred time and maybe he would be more likely to play in a timely manner. Of coarse, TAD complains about turn pace when he thinks he is in a winning position and then slow walks the turns if something bad happens to him. Still have no idea what takes Kaiser so long to get the turn passed. Sorry for complaining but we have had like 4 turns in the last 9 days. Much too slow. 

Anyways, my wonderful longboat still survives and pillages a mine. He will die in between turns as I find a Japanese Frigate when I move to pillage the mine. Total worth losing him for 3 trade routes and a mine. I pinned a bunch of pillage locations on TAD's land that I can see...
   

Lots of gold, science, and culture, especially when I slot Raid. TAD left his Frigates in the open and don't see why they should survive another turn or at least the turn after. 

ljbljana, feel free to bring all your frigates to the south if you feel you need them down there but I would recommend bring 3 frigates to the north to help hunt down ships. If we can kill quads before they turn into frigates, it will be better than having to kill frigates. TAD is building quads, as I spot one where your spy is located. I bet there are a few in the north. Besides, you will only need a few caravels in the south to defend against any Japanese ships, so you don't need all of them in the south.

With all this pillage gold, I might just buy the 2 workshops so we can find where Industrialism is located quicker. I figure Thor will start building its IZ next turn but Loki will have to wait 7 turns until I can buy a builder to chop the jungle tile. It will work on a barracks next to take advantage of the extra production on units from Akkad. Also, I think I am going to slot Wisselbanken when Diplomatic Service completes and then send all my traders to Cuneiform. Wisselbanken provides 2 food, 2 production to both cities and if I send my next 2 trades to Cuniform (5 total), that will be an extra 10 food, 10 production at Cuneiform. What do you think? Should help you out a bit.

Edit: If you are unsure of the next tech to get, I would say either Education to be able to build universities or Siege Tactics (not going to build to bombards). I should get the boosts for Gunpowder and Astronomy and already have the boost to Metal Casting.

[ljubljana]

It will be an hour or two before I can play my turn but...oh my god TAD went for my frigate! I was hoping he would do that - that frigate actually had the experience to promote last turn and will now insta-heal. I should be able to two-shot all of the exposed ships unless he got his MA this turn (and judging by the damage he did, I doubt that), the only question is if I have the ships in place to do it this turn.

I think the governor in Official Visit is probably Victor starting to establish, since he was in WotW before you liberated it. That's a good sign, since it means TAD hasn't yet figured out our first target.

I should be able to play more or less whenever the turn comes to me as long as I don't have any plans actively going on, which should be uncommon. I share your frustration with the slow turn pace...although if it means TAD is checked out enough to leave ships in the open for no reason like this, honestly I'm not going to complain too much . I wonder if he's building medieval walls in every city instead of ships, given how long it's been since his milpower increased at all? I hope so...that would be much easier for us to chew through than ships if the ships were deployed effectively.

I wonder if you should consider sneaking some caravels up the west side of The Compassionate Society next turn? That Kaiser frigate could be the vanguard of a somewhat larger force, and it would be great to get the jump on it if possible.

edit: As far as the next tech, I probably shouldn't get education quite yet since I, uh, don't even have a single library yet . I will see which tech is after MP and report back.