RBP3 [SPOILERS] - Zara of the Ottomans

[Pegasus]

As much as I don't like the idea of switching, I think PAT are going to start to cause havoc on CUDDLE and our best opportunity is to switch now.

Communications within CUDDLE appear far more inept compared to PAT and I feel before long PAT will get a stronghold over CUDDLE.

With Inca crippled it is only time before PAT get away with a tech advantage again. Or at very worst keep up to pace with us and we will always be at stalemate with Krill and Carthage.

We are going to just be suffocated into a support civ for India (if we are not already), and although I feel we could hold our own we will not be in any real contention.

I am for a switch on the proviso (and discussed with WK on chat earlier) that we secure a very long term nap with Krill / Carthage / England so our borders to the south are secure (or at lease subject to a monumental back stab ). Carthage are suffocated too, and we don't want them turning on us, like we are considering turning on Ruff.

Without this, I think they will just come and sweep us up as we expand north, which I don't particularly like but if we want to have any chance of winning, we have to do.

Ad, I agree with your argument to go for Bad Ass, just because it makes me feel better for not switching, but in reality I can't see where we go from there over the next 20-30 turns that gets us in a better position than switching now. If Inca could hold out, Rome were interested in this game etc etc then maybe but I feel CUDDLE are probably carrying too many dead weight civs who are even bothered to compete let alone a position to.

[Sockboy]

Guess I should weigh in with my thoughts. I agree with AH for the most part, we shouldn't be considering switching at the present. I know that many players are unhappy with the status quo of the game at the moment, but really I can't see any strong advantage to switching, it just causes as many problems as it solves in my opinion.

Switching sides leaves us as a johnny-come-lately in PAT who will either be cut loose and turned upon if HRE or us make significant gains to the north, or will act as convenient meat shields for our former enemies to our south. I would expect little to no help if our former allies come knocking (which they will). Ruff has admitted to running his civ on a food rich plan, which implies he can whip up the full 5 draftees in his border cities on the initial turn of conflict. If it looks like he will lose a city there is no penalty to drafting 5 times and whipping a rifle from scratch. At worst you have a city that is massively unhappy for 10 turns, that is far better than the alternative of losing a city. Expect any city we could attack to be packed to the gills with rifles by the time we actually get to strike. I wouldn't read too much into Ruff's low power graph.

Techwise I feel, like AH, that we (CUDDLE) have finally caught up to PAT and will now slowly pull ahead. PAT are scared and are trying to pry us apart, which is a good move on their part. The lapses in communication between the CUDDLE teams isn't a great thing, but it's a relatively minor problem in the grand scheme of things. The fact that we're having this issue means that we've caught up and people aren't worried any longer about the exact time for techs since it's obvious that we're no longer falling behind. Inca have lost a border city yes, but I hardly think that makes them crippled. I think we're all fairly convinced that there will not be any further progress along that border conflict by either side. I have trouble believing that that single city was the sole difference between our technical superiority and us falling ever further behind. If so then our bombing of one of Krill's cities should have the same effect on PAT right?

With the recent advent of Nationalism and rifling this is by far the worst time in the game to attack, the defender just gets too many advantages. If there's a significant timing window when we get to industrialism and Railroads then there's a chance to move then.

Does anyone really think our former enemies will sign 20turn NAPS with us? If so do we believe they will keep them? If they sign a 20t NAP I wouldn't expect it to be worth the pixels it's typed in. I know there are some people unhappy with the status quo, but I really believe it's in our best interests to maintain it. Let's stay the course.

[WarriorKnight]

Switching sides leaves us as a johnny-come-lately in PAT who will either be cut loose and turned upon if HRE or us make significant gains to the north, or will act as convenient meat shields for our former enemies to our south. I would expect little to no help if our former allies come knocking (which they will).

Paranoid much?

We have the power to demand extra troops from Krill/Carthage since we have the initiative. Us keeping with CUDDLE is bad for PAT too since us and HRE would still tech for them. Because of this we can ask for assistance from PAT and we would get it (see chat with Krill below).

The post-PAT factor we could worry about, but there are too many things that could happen to assume that we'll be the first ones cut off from PAT.

Ruff has admitted to running his civ on a food rich plan, which implies he can whip up the full 5 draftees in his border cities on the initial turn of conflict. If it looks like he will lose a city there is no penalty to drafting 5 times and whipping a rifle from scratch. At worst you have a city that is massively unhappy for 10 turns, that is far better than the alternative of losing a city. Expect any city we could attack to be packed to the gills with rifles by the time we actually get to strike. I wouldn't read too much into Ruff's low power graph.

I agree with this for the most part (just look at Inca, went from last to 2nd in power over a few turns, although they had extra assistance from CUDDLE members). The only thing I'll disagree with is that if it's hard to gain anything from Ruff (which I disagree with, Ruff currently has no army and we have a artist, we should gain 1-2 cities to start with, more as they fall behind in tech), then it would be impossible to take anything from Krill (aside from bad ass, which we might be able to take if Krill stops defending it or we get lucky).

I'll also point out that Ruff would have to draft himself dead similar to Inca to hold us off.

Techwise I feel, like AH, that we (CUDDLE) have finally caught up to PAT and will now slowly pull ahead. PAT are scared and are trying to pry us apart, which is a good move on their part. The lapses in communication between the CUDDLE teams isn't a great thing, but it's a relatively minor problem in the grand scheme of things. The fact that we're having this issue means that we've caught up and people aren't worried any longer about the exact time for techs since it's obvious that we're no longer falling behind. Inca have lost a border city yes, but I hardly think that makes them crippled. I think we're all fairly convinced that there will not be any further progress along that border conflict by either side. I have trouble believing that that single city was the sole difference between our technical superiority and us falling ever further behind. If so then our bombing of one of Krill's cities should have the same effect on PAT right?

Inca aren't crippled because they lost a border city, they're crippled because they had to draft repeatedly in their cities to avoid dying. This is a consequence of their low power graph, they needed an army badly and so they drafted themselves dead, losing long term potential as a result. They currently only have 50gpt, and that's being used on upgrades ATM.

Because of that, we won't be able to get a tech advantage over PAT anymore. We would probably manage to remain breakeven with them, although I wouldn't be surprised if either of us can get a small lead (although not enough to completely out-tech the other team.

Krill is high enough on the power graph to avoid having to revert to mass drafting, and presumably most of his gpt comes from his shrine, and so he would still be able to provide most of his gpt.

With the recent advent of Nationalism and rifling this is by far the worst time in the game to attack, the defender just gets too many advantages. If there's a significant timing window when we get to industrialism and Railroads then there's a chance to move then.

I'd argue that it's harder to attack in the Medieval era, but that's not important right now.

We don't have to move in immediately (although IMO it would be to our advantage to do so). We can always wait until receiving a tech advantage to do so (which we can get with PAT, CUDDLE won't be getting a tech advantage anytime soon).

Also, assuming this case, why are we moving in against Krill during the worst time to attack? Because we need to expand somewhere to stay competitive, and Krill seems to be our only option. I just don't see how attacking Krill would be anywhere near as successful as attacking Ruff.

Does anyone really think our former enemies will sign 20turn NAPS with us? If so do we believe they will keep them? If they sign a 20t NAP I wouldn't expect it to be worth the pixels it's typed in. I know there are some people unhappy with the status quo, but I really believe it's in our best interests to maintain it. Let's stay the course.

Paranoid much?

Chat with Krill:

new.mail.storage: Mate, you there?
7:20 AM me: hi
yeah
new.mail.storage: I was watching your thread, looks like everyone has chimed in. I was wondering if there were any final questions you might want answering?
7:21 AM me: might be
give me a sec
need to find them
7:22 AM new.mail.storage: np
7:24 AM me: ok
7:25 AM our biggest fear is that inca/india move in on us
I know that you guys would be moving in on India soon as to discract them
7:26 AM new.mail.storage: You want forces to help defend your cities?
Tactical help?
me: mainly forces really
new.mail.storage: OK
7:27 AM Well, Carthage, as you know, would not border anyone hostile if youswapped, so it would be incredibly easy for them to sed some forces to help defend,
In my case, I'll be starting to draft next turn
7:28 AM I don;t see any problem in sending a force to help bolster your line, provided that we could agree to an NAP ()including Carthage, as they'll be sending units as well.
my forces will be either drafted rifles or Cav
me: ok, so we would just need to sign a NAP with you and Carthage
7:29 AM new.mail.storage: Basically. We could link it to either turn span, or tech.
me: yep
new.mail.storage: I'm not being funny or anything, but I'd view any defence against India a joint defence.
7:30 AM me: and, since were switching to pat, you guys would definately sign a nap with us right?
new.mail.storage: Hell yes
me: ok
new.mail.storage: This isn;t some half arsed swap, where we plan to stab you in the back the moment it is in our best interests
me: lol
7:31 AM i know its silly, buit we're in a marathon debate
new.mail.storage: I understand, the debates increase in lenght the more members of hte team there are
just look at demogames
me: yeah

OK, so Carthage and Krill are willing to send units to us to help defend against India (or if India isn't a problem presumably attack Ruff) in exchange for a NAP. How is that not a no-brainer for us? If they send units to us (which we can put into a condition of joining PAT) then I seriously doubt they will turn on us.

The idea that they won't sign a NAP as soon as we join their alliance or break their word ASAP is IMO, ridiculous. Admittedly, Krill's break of the NAP with Byz is worrying, but they are trying to convince us to join them unlike when Krill broke it with Byz (clearly on opposite alliances).

I know it's half a backstab against CUDDLE, but for us personally we would have a much easier time with PAT then in CUDDLE, and if we bomb Bad ass then we probably wouldn't be allowed anymore. With PAT, we would have an immediate advantage over Ruff due to the power graph, and long term have a tech advantage over him (not to mention we can go after Inca whenever we want to ). Whereas in CUDDLE we will probably never have a tech/military advantage over PAT, and Krill is much higher on the power graph then Ruff, so any gains will be almost impossible.

If your concerned about the backstab factor, then that's fair enough. However, how can we be expected to remain in CUDDLE for the rest of the game? Any side switching could be described as a backstab. However, if we offered say a 10 turn NAP to everyone in CUDDLE and continue to supply CUDDLE with steel, then IMO we done as little of a backstab as possible.

[WarriorKnight]

OK, so we got together and decided to go for it and switch to PAT.

I have some screenshots for our T150 overview, but I'm pressed for time ATM and so the overview might be delayed for a bit. However if the game ends due to Maya and Portugal then we might not even have to worry about it. It's a shame really since the game would have just started to get interesting again...

[WarriorKnight]

OK, here is the long delayed T150 report. Starting with the Domestic overview of our cities:



Still a mega production city, but losing Bureaucracy really hurts its potential. It will probably pump out cannons/cav in the forseeable future.





Our NE city is taking a break from running specialists to get a Uni up for Oxford and to prebuild a cav to assist the war. After that, I think it'll go back to specialists?





Zingara is the typical cottage cheese city, and I think we'll just add more cottages here now that it's a backline city.





Cimmeria is another military pump city, although it's giving a Uni for Oxford thanks to the gold. I think we should workshop the remaining tiles for more production.





Brythunia is our major research center and will probably be where we put Oxford. It's a little vulnerable now being the new front with Inca but it has plenty of culture, and we should be able to get some cav/rifles in there fairly shortly.





With Rifling on the scene, Ophir will now start to shine as our draft camp. Plan for this city is to draft it as much as food will allow it until rifles obsolete (we have a +11 surplus here, which should mean we can draft 2/3rds of the time).





Another production city. Depending on the food situation, we may want to workshop some of the tiles around here.





Cottage city. It's the least vulnerable front since Ruff doesn't have an army to speak of, but that won't stop us putting some Rifles in there just in case India decides to get sneaky.





This city has no food. It will probably spend the rest of it's days building missionaries or workers, but now we're just growing it up.





Our newest front which is vulnerable against India. Fortunately, most of our troops are going to be in range of the city when we announce to CUDDLE.

As for the city itself, it's another cottage city which we're trying to cut down as many forests as possible. SB, I'm not sure if the 3 workers can chop that hill forest tile because that's the turn when we announce, and they'll be vulnerable. They'll need protection.



Demogs:



We're doing OK, but we definitely need more land to stay competitive. Going through the important ones:

GNP: We're actually 5th since Ruff was giving gpt to India since he was away for a bit, and that shows in the negative score.

5th is pretty good for a non-FIN civ, although everyone going up and down makes it impossible to keep a clear eye on where your rank is.

Prod: A bit sad really, 8th is not that good. At least with drafting, Prod isn't needed that much.

Food: We were actually 4th until Krill razed Strand from Portugal. Go Krill!

3rd is actually quite a good result, and with drafting on the horizon it will show to have high food. Both India and Maya are way above us though, I'd say that they are in 1st/2nd position right now.

Other things to note is that we're falling behind in land area (ie attack someone), and we're 3rd in pop.

Graphs:



Yeah, I'll leave you to make sense of that.





Our spike is actually merc + GA. Apart from that we've seem to have fallen into the middle of the pack, which of course is bad since we want to be 1st.





I think this graph shows how well everyone is doing overall. It hasn't been updated yet to reflect Portugal's lost city but aside from that, it shows how we seem to be falling behind the leaders.





Look at Inca's spike, that is just huge. They got that by falling behind every other category, and will probably be overrun when their current Cuiraser + Musket army becomes obsolete. Other than that, the drafting has yet to begin, and so this graph will be obsolete real soon.

Diplo:

Well, as you lurkers probably know by now, us and HRE have switched to PAT. We plan to announce our defect to PAT on T153, the turn we get Steel (aka D-Day), but we'll send it around to CUDDLE as well as PAT. Short term plan is to survive against any CUDDLE backlash that may happen, and Carthage has sent some units to us to help. Krill may also send some units, although since he's away for a bit I'm not so sure. Anyway, units sent to us is good because chances are that they'll then be used for an attack that we'll benefit from.

I wonder if we should maybe declare on Ruff sometime in the near future? We'll soon have an army nearby and we still have the artist to use. No use having an army and having that sit around while he has time to draft. Maybe wait until T155 or so and see what CUDDLE's reaction to D-Day is before moving out.

Tech plan for the near future:

Maya: Optics(T151) -> Constitution(T156) -> Corporation(T161) -> Assembly Line(T174)... Yes, we're only 24 turns away from Factories and Infantry, bloody hell!

HRE: Steam Power (T159) then fund

Mali: research off till T153, then Communism (T162) -> Railroad (T175)

Carthage: Scientific Method (T153) -> Biology (T164) -> Physics (T176)

Ottomans: Steel (T153) then fund until T159 then Astronomy (T167) -> Democracy?

Babylon/England/Egypt- Fund, Fund, Fund.

Is there anything else I missed or something you lurkers want to know?

[WarriorKnight]

OK, so we got Rifling end of T151. Trouble is, I wasn't sure quite where to draft, or even if we should draft anywhere at all.

I decided to draft Zingara and Ophir, since the first has the longest time to get to the front lines and the other is our draft camp, so we need to draft there as much as we can. Turns out we never finished the barracks at Ophir, so we have a 1XP rifle there. I think we'll need to finish the barracks very soon if not first priority.

Also got Ruff's demogs, while he did convert to Nationhood last turn the good news is that he's still near the bottom in food, prod and power. Since we can't spam our EP's on Carthage anymore I think we should try and get everyone's Demogs for the complete set.

[novice]

Are there any deals in place for how you leave Cuddle?

[WarriorKnight]

Are there any deals in place for how you leave Cuddle?

The only deal in place so far is that we'll make sure to send Steel to CUDDLE. There's no other deals in place though. India might try and DOW us, which is why we've requested troops from PAT. If that doesn't happen, well I don't know what we'll do then. Right now we'll just wait and see how the rest of CUDDLE reacts to us leaving.

[WarriorKnight]

Bad news: Ruff requested a map trade but since we already have Carthage's map, I had to decline. Hopefully he doesn't notice until next turn.

Also Ruff drafted 5 times this turn. While a good move for him since he's last in power, it doesn't help if we want to conquer him.


Good news: I saw a Aztec Rifleman heading North from his border city away from us. Let Maya and Mali deal with the Rifles. :neenernee


We get a chop for Ophir, and i microed it so we can finish the barracks there next turn. I don't think we should draft there this turn though. Instead, we should draft at Aquilonia, Nemedia, Koth and Cimmeria (unless you think that one of those cities doesn't have enough food to draft). Thoughts?

[Sockboy]

The only reason to not draft from Ophir is if it prevents the barracks from completing in a turn. Otherwise it's a free rifle essentially, so why not take it and then draft from the other cities also? I've had a look and we can still draft, complete the barracks and regrow to size 7 next turn, so I can't see a downside here. We can draft 5 cities anyway so let's just do the max, unless you're worried it'll look bad on the power graph, in which case we can argue that the enforced peace with our southern neighbours is about to end. Otherwise I agree with the draft choices. I've gone ahead and drafted the cities you suggested.

Next turn we might want to draft Zingara and Koth again since the happy cap allows it, Brythunia should be drafted before we announce as well. Stygia and Khitai should be able to draft by the time we announce too.

One weird thing, as I logged in there was a diplo splash screen from the Incans asking "what can we do for you" with a 50g offer rejected? The only options I had were to retract offer or end diplomacy, so I exited diplomacy. Not sure what's going on here, or what they meant. I assume hwat happened is we requested 50g from them and they declined, but not sure why/when. Anyway we have enough gold to finish steel this turn anyway so it's not a big deal I guess.

I still think we should keep Steel away from our enemies, since it's a key tech on the path to Railroads, particularly if Byzantium also jump ship, since then Byz and us researched Steel (them funding and us teching). I hope we don't end up facing Indian cannons

Declaring on ruff might be a bit premature, although earlier is better. I'm just not convinced we can hold Khitai once India get into gear. Declaring after 3 turns might find us caught with our pants down. I'll be happier once I can see how may troops we'll have in Khitai I guess. Also the nearest Ruff city is on a hill with 40% cultural defence and we can't one move. We should bring some of our old cats along to the party. Actually it might be better to try and raze the Indian city "The Dance Floor", doing that would cut off Studio 54 and relieve a lot of pressure from Khitai (which is due for it's second border pop in 7 turns). It's also a two-move for us, so not so different I guess. Thoughts?

Speaking of siege, do we want to prebuild a cannon in Aquilonia? I think we should still keep it on cavs for the moment, but a couple of cannons stationed around is probably not a bad thing.

Last thought, are we still spreading Buddhism around since we're declaring on Ruff? The courthouse in Turan is almost finished and it'll have a couple of mines soon, so it can start on missionary production. Are we still doing that?