WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[novice]

@794, jkaen: I was trapping you with a crosspost? Or MJW was trapping? By symmetry, it could just as well be you that were trapping me with your buddy MJW.

@795 & 797: I was spending time on Jowy because he was acting very scummily with his flawed arguments and misrepresentations. Here are some of the quotes showing Jowy's bad logic that you asked for earlier.

[novice]

- Zak & Novice have 4 suspects (at least in some form), but all they've done is try convince Q to vote with them, their biggest scum candidate from the last day. Why not try to convince me or Jkaen to agree with them? If they suspect everyone, I would imagine everyone could either be a wolf or a villager in their minds, in which case only focusing on getting Q on your side seems really strange. It is not the same with me and Jkaen, who have clearly identified the exact scum duo, so naturally we would try to convince the third villager to join us.

My main focus has been to convince everybody that I'm innocent. You and Jkaen refuse to listen.

[Jkaen]

@794, jkaen: I was trapping you with a crosspost? Or MJW was trapping? By symmetry, it could just as well be you that were trapping me with your buddy MJW.

Not with the cross post.

MJW starts off the mention of policy lynch, which it seemed righter header people (Q and Az) state is not a good idea. You mention it (spinning it has agreement) while I then (cross post being irrelevant to this theory really) swing in and give it some validity.

Since I was the first one to then vote on the basis of policy it then draws less attention to you wolves when you push hard for it.

You could argue the same for me and MJW putting it together, but I then drop the idea - you dont. Also there isnt the nice pattern of the 3 of you working on the noise generating discussion day 1

[Jkaen]

- Zak & Novice have 4 suspects (at least in some form), but all they've done is try convince Q to vote with them, their biggest scum candidate from the last day. Why not try to convince me or Jkaen to agree with them? If they suspect everyone, I would imagine everyone could either be a wolf or a villager in their minds, in which case only focusing on getting Q on your side seems really strange. It is not the same with me and Jkaen, who have clearly identified the exact scum duo, so naturally we would try to convince the third villager to join us.

My main focus has been to convince everybody that I'm innocent. You and Jkaen refuse to believe me.

Fixed it for you

[zakalwe]

Jowy, I don't think Hanlon's razor is applicable to werewolf games.

And if anyone's been trying to win over Q today, it's you and Jkaen. Do you think I tried to win him over by calling him scum?

[Jkaen]

Please both pairs are trying to win him over. Regardless of which pair is scum it's the only obvious play today

[Jowy]

I agree on the rest though - in particular his conviction that he cast the deciding vote on MJW is bizarre given how much we've discussed it. Also, his immediate list of tells in the wake of the MJW lynch looks quite bad too, as it seems ready to setup a lynch cycle on Azarius/Gazglum (this is also done off memory, but I think he was very quick to clear the majority of the MJW wagon, and push those two).

I did not think it would be good play to target the people who just lynched a scum. Would you not agree? If right after MJW got lynched, I would tell you that it had to all be a scum sacrifice for sure and we should let the non-MJW voters off the hook, you would have called me a crazy man. I do agree that it makes me scummy that I would immediately go after the ones who didn't vote MJW, in hindsight now that we know they were all villagers, but it is the natural line of thought. And I do not think it makes me scummier than Zak and Novice, because both of them actually agreed with me about my thoughts on that day and echoed my sentiments.

@ Who was lynched. Okay, maybe I was wrong about the ability being the cause. I don't know, I suppose we'll find out after the game when we read the wolf QT. But apart from abilities, in general I don't think night kill results this far in the game mean much. Azarius was a special case, because if his ability did have shots, killing Azarius is the one move that can't be blocked unless he blocks the one who was to commit the kill. However, if there are no abilities in play, or at least no-one considers them to be in play, I don't think night kills tell us much. We can't know whether the scum are playing it straight, or if they are bluffing, or if they are double-bluffing etc. It's WIFOM. Zak can say that they'd never lynch Azarius because he'd be easiest to get on their side, but the counter point is that if we also realized this, then the scum should bluff so that we think the scum are someone else. It is just completely an useless tell, imo.

@ MJW wagon, don't twist my words Zak. I've never said that we can't learn anything from it. I've said that it is 100% sure that MJW was sacrificed, something that you kept denying all game, even when it was already confirmed. What I've learned from it is that now that we know it was a sacrifice by two wolves. I know that it was intentional, because only Jkaen + Q duo could have accidentally sacrificed him, and I don't believe in that scum duo. So I look at who gains the most. It is by far Novice, and in proxy Zak who is essentially the same person considering how they've played all game. Not just that, but he claimed all the credit for the sacrifice and has used it as his defense, despite the fact that he used to claim that the scum would not benefit from a sacrifice on MJW.

I also found this nugget:

I don't think following novice is like the real Zak...

If MJW had said the sky was blue would you now be doubting that.

Scum saying something that is clearly obvious doesnt make it untrue.

Agreed, and Novice trying to bring that up as evidence for Zak's innocence is weird. He should know better.

If he was pushing for non-MJW voters, then why was he on Novice yesterday? I know you brothers are riding the MJW lynch hard as evidence, but its just not as strong as you are trying to make out.

This is true. I did look at only the non-MJW voters after MJW's lynch, I admit that. I think it was the right play, even though in this case we didn't catch scum. But I did go after novice when Azarius and Matt were still alive. And if you go check out my big post on Gaz and Azza, I actually didn't find Azza scummy. Which is why I found it really weird that he got lynched. IIRC Novice and Zak were both on Azza only because of one of Azza's Day 1 posts, so very bad reasoning. I reckon they wanted to take out the harder to miss-lynch targe first. Gazglum had been scummy this game even though he was a villager, they could have set him up any time from there. There was only one legit town vote on Azza (I don't remember who), the fourth vote was just Gaz self-defense vote.

As a side note, predeclaring your voting preferences and setting them in stone, like Jkaen and Jowy have been doing (and continue to do), is extremely poor strategy for town, as it just makes the job of navigating the endgame that much easier for scum. I would expect Jowy in particular to realize this, who has shown a very firm grasp of mafia theory and strategy in the past (despite his limited experience).

This is so not true. Town is supposed to catch scum. How do you catch scum without sharing with the others who you find scummiest and why? It is very pro-town to share these things and let everyone know your preferences. And I didn't set my votes on stone either, I always re-evaluate. Today I wanted to wait for Zak+Novice to get out their statements. As I've said, the other scenario, though much less likely, was Q + one of Zak/Novice. If one of Zak/Novice had strongly attacked the other and suspected him of being scum, I would have put much thought to that scenario. Now it is not even an option, because of how close they still are, and obviously because they don't suspect each other (even though they throw it in there that they do, but they never say why and would never vote each other, for obvious reasons since they are the scum).

Well I don't understand how you can have no doubt, JKaen. You and Jowy are even forcing me to just assume that Zak is innocent since you've already locked on to me as scum with Zak.

I suggest you take 8 hours off, reflect, and then reconsider what's happening in this game.

Q, if you're innocent you should vote Jowy, and tomorrow we'll reevaluate everyone.

Why are you concerned about survival? It doesn't matter which fucking villager gets miss-lynched, the village loses if that happens. You are not "forced" to assume that Zak is innocent. You've done that all game by your own, because he is your scum buddy and that's the strategy you went with. If you were a villager, you would be doing anything in your power to figure out who the scum are and then get votes on the scum. Earlier you had everyone as your suspects, some more and some less, but you would lock someone out just because there was 2 votes on you? And before you launch that same thing to me, I only have two suspects at this point. In fact I'm confident enough to say that I KNOW who the scum duo are. And I am trying everything in my power to get Q to join us.

Funny about "re-evaluations"... As if the night kill would teach us something new. It is completely WIFOM, we don't know if the scum would bluff or double-bluff or whatever. So the reason you are asking Q to vote me is bullshit, and the real reason why you are asking him to vote me is because I'm the most likely villager he would vote for, and me dying today would end the game in your victory.

Having finished that, I'm still not sure, but Jowy seems a bit worse, as the two of you worked to buddy me early while they were still scumhunting me (if stupidly). I tend to think that they would be trying to buddy up more if they needed my vote (and you two weren't moving), whilst you tried to work with me ASAP, which seems more co ordinated. I think Jowy/zak is getting less likely, as you are doing some ferocious distancing if so, I tend to think scum would try to co-ordinate more to take the win today.
So Jowy.
It also won't put me in this position tomorrow, one way or the other, and I could not take another day of this.

We were convinced of Novice yesterday. We were both on him. I could see how it would look like we are working in co-ordination, but we are simply on the same page. And that is very good for the village. We can't win an end game where we have to lynch two scum in a row in LyLo unless we have every single villager on the same page. Myself and Jkaen went after the target we had yesterday. Zak and Novice had you as their top suspect, but it was clear from the start of the day that it would be you who they need to convince, so unsurprisingly they only threw your name in there a few times and then really easily gave up their target, who just last day was their #1. I'm not sure how you find mine and Jkaen's play scummier than Novice's and Zak's. Though I admit that they are really good talkers, and really influential, so even though (to me) nearly all proof points towards Zak and Novice being scum, it is not completely unsurprising that you are torn atm. And I really do understand the "it's too obvious" argument. But even though it feels too obvious, it wasn't, else they wouldn't be in the winning position they are in.

Any questions Q? I'll be around.

[Jowy]

And Q, I hope that you look at the big picture.
Novice and Zak have put much more effort into convincing you, than they have put into all of the lynches together this game.

CH - Policy lynch.
MJW - Sacrifice.
Azza - Lynched for one Day 1 post they didn't like.
Matt - Revenge vote, and even admitted Matt is town since they knew he'd flip that way, but still lynched him.

Fact is, they have not hunted scum this game. That should be your #1 clue to solve this puzzle.

[Jowy]

And I have to admit I'm not the best writer. If it comes to war of words, the scum might win. They have the influence, the experience, and the language skills. For that reason as well I hope you look at more than today, but I will not give up and I will answer any question you have.

[Qgqqqqq]

Jkaen; your case there (especially on a serdoa lynch, which seems overly fancy play IMO - I tend to agree that he was just trying to get him to post) seems more about taking his posts and finding reasons why they're scummy. For example, I don't see how his day 2 vote was self defence, and I don't think you can say that day 1 posts are trying to plant seeds of suspicion for the future.
Its not a waste of time, but I've been struggling to see novice as a scum all game, and its not really anything that seems particularly bad there.

Catching up and will post more.