[EitB PBEM LVI] coldrain emerges from the shadows

[mackoti]

I don’t like the thinking “I don’t want to kingmaker”.
Especially if it’s an argument why you shouldn’t attack a player.

True, I shouldn't avoid war for this reason. I'm just trying to figure out if there is any scenario where I can win the game from this position while Aurorarcher seems to have a significant lead. So 'm trying to balance these objectives:
1. Survive a possible continuation of war against Mig. I won't have mages available once the peace treaty expires, so I'm expecting to be on the back foot if hostilities resume.
2. Catch up to others in important research. 
3. Regain lost territories to improve production output.
4. Damage the leading player directly (war) or indirectly (stay neutral while others do the heavy lifitng of war) before he has built an unbeatable economy/army.
5. Devise a plan to victory.

Based on the previous game threads, the most likely path to victory is a concession to the player who assembles the scariest army and manages to conquer another player. I could be wrong, but based on graphs and demos, Aurorarcher is ways ahead of rest of the competition. By this way of thinking, any inconclusive war between the trailing players would only increase the lead Aurorarcher holds.

Your thinking is right, althought is very annoying for the leading dude.

[coldrain]

Turn 90
Quick update: Aurorarcher completed Mines of Galdur (gives 3 iron resources, applies iron weapons to chariots etc. without the required tech). Looking at known techs, he also has access to mages and assassins.

Big news from this turn: Miguelito declared war on Aurorarcher and used his world spell to block all other players from casting spells for 14 turns. This applies to PoLs too. I have 7 turns of peace treaty remaining with Mig, and 3 with Q. I’m completing stirrups on end of turn 91. Someone else has stirrups (KTB bonus) already, most likely Q. First stables will be ready soon and time to build some Fyrdwells ASAP. I’ll discuss my plan in more detail in the next update.

[coldrain]

Turn 93

I haven’t had the time to sit down and write a proper report, but here’s one at last! Domestically, there hasn’t been significant changes. Stirrups was researched and I completed heroic epic at capital on turn 91. Military build-up is continuing. Capital can now 1-turn PoLs or fyrdwells until the end of times:

Since spell casting is still blocked for a while (PoLs are relatively useless for now), most cities build stables to train fyrdwells. The only city not building military or training buildings is Anor Londo, which is growing on a market. I briefly considered building Shrine of Champions national wonder, but it would take 5 turns at capital. I’d rather have more units now than slightly more promoted ones later. Overview of lands:

Diplomatic situation is very interesting. Aurorarcher is at war with both Miguelito and Q. So far Aurorarcher has lost two cities to Mig and one to Q and his military power graph has plummeted to last position:

He also lost heroes Bambur and Barnaxus, presumably defending one of the lost cities. Importantly, Mig was able to capture Mines of Galdur, so he now has iron weapon swords (strength 6 instead of 5).  So in three turns since the war declaration, it looks like Miguelito (with help from east by Q) has been successful in battering down Aurorarcher quite badly. Maybe there was not enough time to build assassins and the blocked spell casting really hampered him?

Q sent several messages in the past couple turns, which I interpreted as offers to start military cooperation either against Aurorarcher or Miguelito or both. Looking at the overall situation, I think I have to accept the offer: In three turns enforced peace with Miguelito ends, but spell casting is blocked for another 10. My nightmare scenario is that Miguelito starts a second invasion against me and Q opportunistically attacks from east. And to have any chance of winning, I need more time to get to mages myself. A two front war would be too much to handle while buying time for research efforts. I’d rather secure Q as an ally or at least ensure his neutrality, so I can focus solely against Amurite empire. Most importantly I need to have my revenge too! To signal approval of possible cooperation I sent the following message to Q:

Valley of Drake + horse for Altherior-ta-Malthiel + horse

I tried to imply that I’m ready to assemble a mobile military force to my west border, and Q should focus in south or south-west. I also accepted world map trade and open borders that he offered. Let’s see how the situation develops in Luchuirp/Amurite/Hippus war and if Sidar will remain neutral. Speaking of which, I'm not sure what Bing is planning to do. If I was in his position, I'd be contemplating the possibility to vulture Aurorarchers capital or border cities...

[xist10]

Whats is the effect of the shrine of champions ?

[coldrain]

Whats is the effect of the shrine of champions ?

It gives a free promotion (doesn't increase the experience cost of next promo) to all units built in the city. The wonder is unlocked by losing your national hero: in my case, Gilden Silveric.

[coldrain]

Turn 94

Luchuirp resistance seems to be crumbling. Miguelito captured two cities, including the capital of Khazad-Dum:

At this rate, Aurorarcher will be completely eliminated within the next several turns. I’m surprised how fast he lost the cities. At first I was thinking that Miguelito made a mistake by not using his world spell when he invaded me, but saving it for southern attack is looking to be very effective, assuming that Aurorarcher was planning to use mages/adepts as main military offensive units. I was sort of expecting that Luchuirp would have a doom stack of chariots + assassins as a counter attack force, but maybe there weren’t enough units or they got caught in a bad defensive position?

Further diplo from Q: he sent fish for fish deal, and I returned the same deal this turn. It is abundantly clear that Miguelito is not taking significant losses and soon will control majority of Aurorarcher’s territory. With 10 turns of blocked spell casting remaining, Miguelito can turn around to hit any player he chooses to and decimate everything with his wizards while the rest of us are stuck with standard units or hampered spell casters. The question is then: If Aurorarcher falls soon, who is the next in line? Looking at the shape of the borders, me and Q are the next natural targets for the wizards. I’m hoping that Q understood my message that he should amass forces to center of map (south of my borders) while I concentrate to north (west of my borders). This way Miguelito would face a two front war and has to either split his wizard stack or commit fully only in one front. I don’t see any other way to counter or slow down the wizards for the time being. We still have 2 turns of enforced peace.

Then there’s the question of Bing: has he realized that Miguelito is jumping to the leading position and can freely pivot to any direction? I should try to send him some messages, but both of us lack sailing/cartography to send resource trades. Diplo messages are hard to convey without those… I’m sending a warrior to investigate where Q holds his army, and found some wounded horse archers in the center of map (forgot to take a picture) Map trade view of horse lord lands:

Overview of my lands + demos:

[coldrain]

Turn 95

Aurorarcher is down to his last city. 9 turns remaining on the clock until spellcasting is opened again. I’m gathering forces near the capital (mobile stack) and in Valley of Drakes (archers and warriors + one medic priest). I used 66 gold to upgrade two warriors to archers too. Garrison consists of four archers and a couple of warriors. Enforced peace with Miguelito ends next turn. He has swordsmen and a wizard garrisoned in the nearest visible city. Here is the dilemma I’m facing next turn: I could declare war and attack Miguelito while the majority of his wizards are in the south. However, it wouldn’t take long for him to haste his stack back north and absolutely destroy my army if it is caught in a vulnerable position. On the other hand, this could be the best opening to do any meaningful damage, assuming I’m the next target after Aurorarcher anyway…

[coldrain]

Turn 97

Game had a longer pause due to Q travelling. Played turn 97 today. Aurorarcher has been eliminated, but Miguelito has not continued against anyone else while his world spell is still active. Q completed the great light house, started a golden age and switched to city-states. He has about 430 GNP now. I'm at second place with 90 GNP. Miguelito has dropped to 9 GNP (city maintenance, army size, etc.). My economy is suffering as well from unit maintenance.

At this point, the game looks like a contest between Miguelito and Q: Can Q amass enough horse archers and tech to mages while Miguelito is absorbing the conquered territories. Who will the wizards attack next? I think Miguelito is on a clock to knock down Q. Mig invested in an early (and effective) army and attacked me + Auro, but that gave the Hippus time to expand and build a massive economy. If Mig waits too long, Q is able to achieve parity on mages and out produce all competition. But the question remains if I'm the natural next target: Conquering me would make it less akward to invade heartland of Q. And leaving me to my corner allows me to continue military build-up and try to avenge the earlier war...

[coldrain]

Turn 98

As I suspected, Miguelito arrived to my doorstep and declared war. He used both maelstrom and fireballs to kill my archer garrison at Valley of Drake. He captured the city and burned it. Here is his wizard stack:

Still 6 turns remaining until I can cast spells (summon tigers). Combat I fyrdwells get around 10 % chance of winning and 30% of retreat against the defending swords. Other units get poor odds, I can’t clear enough of the stack defenders to reliably hit the wizards. And any counter attack I could do now would leave all attacking units in an undefendable spot to be slaughtered by next turn. My main forces include 8 fyrdwells, 12 PoLs, 8 fawns, 4 hunters, 3 archers and some warriors. I retreated most of the units to capital to defend the heroic epic unit printing machine. Situation after the movement and power graph:

 

Me and Q have been sending back and forth messages of fish for fish and copper for copper. Hopefully he joins the war soon to cause a second front against Mig. I have a single warrior trying to locate the horse archer stack, in the hopes that I can see some action there. Bing is neutral for now, not sure what his plan is. My goal is to somehow hold my capital for 6 turns, when I can start summoning tigers again. Miguelito has so many wizards (11 visible this turn, probably more in the fog) that I need a miracle to survive all of the spell casting without significant losses. And he can choose to ignore the capital and go for other cities first and there's little I can do to prevent that.

[coldrain]

Turn 99
Heavy bombardment of maelstrom and fireballs at capital:

Miguelito has twelve wizards and a bunch of swords eking forwards. I’m gathering everything I can into defence of the capital. Q horseman is finally in my borders to see the combat, maybe he sees an opportunity to attack in the south while the wizards are invading me. Not too hopeful on this, as Q is only third in military power, behind me and Mig.

“We have barred the gates but cannot hold them for long. The ground shakes, drums... drums in the deep. We cannot get out.”