[Spoilers] This Perfect Place

[OT4E]

Well spear has chances mathematically, but they are not high, less than 50% in my estimation. How much fortify have you got with wars?

You could still whip scout in AI from scratch to be sure that your archer comes in time...

[Mr. Cairo]

So, the turn rolled, and Gawdzak did not play his turn immediately, so I was not surprised to see that he did in fact move that spearman 1NW into the forest. My defenders currently consist of 1 warrior, full health, no promos, with 15% fortify bonus; and another warrior, 1.9 health, combat 1 promo, and 10% fortify. The spear has 70% odds against my unpromoted warrior, and slightly higher against the combat 1 warrior, so it'll attack the unpromoted warrior first, giving the C1 warrior time to heal fully before the spear can attack again. However, according to the odds calculator that I got from CivFanatics, the per round odds are only 6.67% in the spears favour, and only deals 3 more damage per hit. It's favoured to win because of it's high health, but it is unlikely to remain undamaged, making it unlikely to be able to kill the next warrior, giving the archer time to get there.
The table below shows the odds for the first combat (Also, how can I better put that table into the post, is there a way to copy data from excel into the table function here?)



Assuming then that the spear wins the first combat, then the odds of it winning (which is all that matters at that point) at each of it's possible health levels are as follows:
100% health: 67%
82% health: 36.6%
62% health: 10.5%
46% health: 8%
28% health: 1%
10% health: 0.1%

So really, the only good chance that Gawdzak has of burning that city is if he wins the first fight perfectly, which is a 4.3% chance. So I feel a lot better now about keeping the city. I'm hoping that Gawdzak does the same calculations and decides to retreat. If he has more units coming then well, we'll see.

You could still whip scout in AI from scratch to be sure that your archer comes in time...

The scout wouldn't get to MoT any faster than the archer would if I did that this turn. Next turn the archer will end 1N of MoT, and the scout 2N of MoT, both able to move into the city the following turn. If I had whipped the scout last turn, it could get there next turn, but I hadn't thought of that. But it's something I'll try to remember for the future, so thanks OT4E.

[Mr. Cairo]

Just realised I've been spelling Gawdzak's name wrong for a while now, I'll go back and edit them tomorrow, but for when he does eventually read this: Sorry Gawdzak!

Edit: Done, except for where I was quoted in a reply before I corrected it.

[OT4E]

Assuming then that the spear wins the first combat, then the odds of it winning (which is all that matters at that point) at each of it's possible health levels are as follows:
100% health: 67%
82% health: 36.6%
62% health: 10.5%
46% health: 8%
28% health: 1%
10% health: 0.1%

So really, the only good chance that Gawdzak has of burning that city is if he wins the first fight perfectly, which is a 4.3% chance. So I feel a lot better now about keeping the city. I'm hoping that Gawdzak does the same calculations and decides to retreat. If he has more units coming then well, we'll see.

I think you do not take in account that if spear wins and gets promo it will be healed by a half of the taken damage and it becomes affected by promotion bonus itself also.

[Mr. Cairo]

I think you do not take in account that if spear wins and gets promo it will be healed by a half of the taken damage and it becomes affected by promotion bonus itself also.

I had kinda thought about it, I just couldn't be bothered to do the calculations then, and I don't have the time now. In any case, the chance of a good-odds second fight do go up when that is taken into account, but not by a whole lot, I don't think.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

You're probably gonna win one of those 2 combats if he does that, but it is by no means certain!

[OT4E]

Top3 results provide him chances over 50% for the 2nd combat, and the 4th does slightly less I think. But in my experience such situation always results in losing spear by me. GL anyway

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, that's the story. I started the turn faced with the peace deal and I accepted it. I could have rejected it to see what hapened and re-send, but there's no guarantee that he would accept my offer, and I knew that even if he did kill a warrior, accepting the peace would keep Memory of Trees alive, and give me a ten turn truce to get more units down there if he wants to try again.

Well done to Pawnbroker for almost killing the spearman, and wounding it enough that even with the promo the spear would only have 12.8% odds on my remaining warrior.

I do have a question about that promotion for the lurkers: can one promote a unit that is out of moves (ie: just attacked) that same turn? I know you can do it in SP, but I don't know how different PitBoss is from SP.

Here's the demos from this turn as well:


Number one in food is Gawdzak, and I don't know what his GDP would be at 100%, but I'm well ahead in Production and not far behind in food, so I'm fairly optimistic right now. I'm also well ahead of Gawdzak in power, and I haven't seen any spikes from him, so I'm assuming that the spear was an opportunistic attack against a potential overreach on my part. I certainly would have done it if I were in his shoes.

Monsters captured: Aspidochelone and Behemoth (is this supposed to be going in the Tech thread? I'm not entirely sure what the point is otherwise)



RIP Pawnbroker.

[OT4E]

I do have a question about that promotion for the lurkers: can one promote a unit that is out of moves (ie: just attacked) that same turn? I know you can do it in SP, but I don't know how different PitBoss is from SP.

Yes you can promote after attack if you had save promotion before it. Promotions gained in battle you can only use next turn as usually.

[Mr. Cairo]

So, if that spearman gained the xp for the promo in that battle, Gawzdak should not have been able to promote the spearman until this turn. Does that constitute a double move? I'm unsure as to the specifics of double moving