WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Jkaen]

Ok, Azza has been after waterbat initially for a confusing opening post, then stuck dogeedly to catwalk and uberfish.

While he is certainly lurking and not putting much forward, I dont see anything to get that excited about

[Rowain]

He has Sareln in red (and that after he declared him villager not so long ago) and I wonder how he came to a village read on those 2.
No I'm not suspecting them but that he put them firmly into the blue camp is the surprise to me.

[uberfish]

Back from lunch, do I really have to spell everything out for you people?

There are a lot more attempts to shift the voting momentum today, of which at least one of them I reckon is being manipulated by wolfish hands.

We've had runs on Sareln, moves to Ichabod, Pindicator and now a bit of a move on me (albeit early to say if its going anywhere)

A run on TT? really? Pindicator and myself were on him at the start of the day and he picks up one vote from Molach, calls it a run and implies with no evidence whatsoever that it's manipulated by wolves. LOL

One thing I think hasn't been fully thought through by the group is that with such a large amount of players, a successful mafia sacrifice has a better risk/reward ration as they have numbers to cover it. Thus I think that they would have been willing to risk it.

so thestick was bussed. Ok

so WHY THE FUCK WOULD I CONSPICUOUSLY TRY TO SAVE THESTICK IF I WAS SCUM AND MY PARTNERS WERE BUSSING HIM

I'm not convinced on any of the cases that have been presented so far for the high lynch targets, I think they are all a much of a muchness and I am sure that at least one has been put up with the help of wolf momentum and I'm not taking a shot in the dark on one of them because of that.

and switching to me isn't moving to another popular lynch target apparently

Thus, I am going to go back to uberfish as he's the main person advocating my lynch and I think that with the collapse of Sareln's large lead in the lynch vote, there is a lot greater scope for wolfish manipulation and has chosen me as one of those wagons to try and get moving

Stretching to draw a completely spurious connection to Sareln's wagon when I was pushing him since the beginning of the day

In short TT's justification for voting me is absolutely illogical and terrible


AND NOW

look at TT's stances today, his philosophy has always been "question the obvious" and to be suspicious of popular wagons, he doesn't trust Mattimeo's claim either

go reread what he does on pp25-29 where he happily jumps on the flashwagon on Mattimeo, snap unvotes when Matt claims without questioning it, and uncritically hops back on thestick when momentum moves there

why's there such a difference?

Because TT is scum and was caught by surprise on the Mattimeo moves yesterday

If he was town, he'd have been his usual paranoid self, looked at 5 votes in 5 posts on Matt or however many it was suspiciously, and at least questioned whether it was a scum move before piling on the wagon. Same with accepting Matt's claim and flipping back to thestick. I can't remember town TT ever being content to crowdsurf in this fashion, much less 3 times in a row. The reason he didn't question any of these moves is because he already knew what was going on. Because he is scum. He saw an opportunity to try and save thestick by pushing an alternate wagon, and when Matt claimed, he KNEW the claim was true and got off as fast as possible. That's why critical thought never entered his mind.

[Serdoa]

Rowain

Maybe you should be more worried about that Rowain? Or maybe you are?

Anyhow, as for blue and red camp: Novice is only allowed to post either quotes or votes (should be obvious for everyone), so he can of course only do that list in vote style. Therefore there is only blue and red. I'd guess that the higher above one is, the more novice suspects them.

[Jkaen]

Not a bad theory uberfish. Not enough for me to switch, but I think it certainly has some merit

[Rowain]

Therefore there is only blue and red. I'd guess that the higher above one is, the more novice suspects them.

Which is why I'm surprised on Azza and Meiz he has them firmly in the villagecamp.

[Tasunke]

I really cant see why Pind is getting heat for the switch that tons of other people made also

I was pretty sure that there were only 2 people with last minute switches OFF of TheStick ... being Merovech and Pindicator.

[Lewwyn]

He has Sareln in red (and that after he declared him villager not so long ago) and I wonder how he came to a village read on those 2.
No I'm not suspecting them but that he put them firmly into the blue camp is the surprise to me.

Technically he only has two colors he can vote with. He can clarify once Day ends.

I'm inclined to stay where I am on Ichabod. Nothing more to add for the moment but I'm following along until bedtime.

[Gaspar]

Holy mother of something, that was a busy night. Yeesh. I didn't quote so I'm going from memory - stuff that stuck out for me overnight:

• Sareln definitely comes off innocent there - and man, be nice if we could ever get that level of participation from him without the noose halfway fitted.
  
• I do think a healthy dollop of skepticism is always required when novice is involved, though I've agreed with almost everything he's "said" today. There really are no confirmed town yet, one of these days we'll collectively learn this lesson and avoid getting punked by scum over and over.
  
• Just since its come up a few times, I have a strong town read on Azza.
  

On to the main suspects:

Pindicator has no traction but I'll mention him since he was a big topic last night. He seems relatively disengaged. I agree that the sequence of actions was very scummy though he's pulled that gambit before. Though I think he might have been scum that time. Slight scum lean, I guess.
Sareln, I discussed above. I think he's town.
Selrahc is totally checked out, due to real life reasons I know its probably not easy for him to do anything but he's shown before he knows how to play lurker scum well. I also think he tilts at windmills more than anyone else and as such, wouldn't be missed that much if we end up wrong.
Twinkletoes89 sounds like himself. I do think the post uber highlighted seemed scummy but its hard to say really whether he's just caught up in paranoia or is scum. I lean the paranoia and hence town atm.
Ichabod I've banged heads with ad nauseum. I don't have a smoking gun, its just completely on tone. He sounds like wolf Ichabod. Lewwyn presented a more eloquent argument than I did. My only reticence is that anytime Lewwyn, novice and I agree on day 2, the world is probably about to end.
uberfish - just seems like the typical day 1/2/3 villager uberfish mislynch. He's aggressive which rubs people the wrong way and he's wrong alot, which also rubs people the wrong way. I think if we let him live though he might bag a mafia before all is said and done.

Anyway, money where my mouth is:

Ichabod

[Tasunke]

As for the uber wagon, you will note I am not that big a fan of that either, as other than 'general feel of posts' nobody can really sell me on the difference between the uber case and the sareln case

You are right, there is barely any difference. I would be voting for them both if I could.