Do they know that we know that they know that we know that they know ...?

[plako]

Gillette's graphs:










We've been a screwed up by the map. It seems Gillette has 4 hammers available to speed up their worker.

[pling]

GNP graph marked up for easier viewing ... so 17 is no tech selected working a 1c tile, 19 (T3) is a tech with a pre-req (AH) working a 1c tile, 18 (T4) is AH working a 0c tile, 16 is no tech selected (or no pre-req) working a 0c tile.

So settled on T0, worked a 3/0/1 tile. Borders popped on T4 and then they started to work a 0/4/0 tile. Didn't switch research otherwise wouldn't have enough beakers to get AH (can't be either of the other 2k soldier techs coz they don't have pre-reqs).

I'll have to look to see if those numbers help me figure out what the others are doing, but I don't have time tonight.

[novice]

That sucks. Now we have our excuse for losing.

[pling]

Typo/braino in my previous post - they are currently working a 0/3/0 tile:



Note to self, don't do things in a hurry I will double check food tomorrow, tho I think that's right - I'm being dragged off the PC now.

[pling]

Everyone except Gillette is currently working a 3f tile, one of these people still has 2 hammers (possibly Pirates coz we think they settled on a PH).

Gillette aren't the only team who've had a production of 4 at some point - this again is going to be the guys who settled on a PH (probably Pirates).

Someone has a GNP of 24 and I'm damned if I know what that's about, I'll think about it later when I have a bit more time Gillette still have a GNP of 16, meaning they're researching a tech without a pre-requiste. Possibilities are Mining, Mysticism, Agriculture, The Wheel.

If it's not too much hassle can I have Gillette's mfg/food/gnp graphs each turn? It (probably) nails down one point out of the 4

[pling]

Right, stared at GNPs and food/production numbers while I ate my lunch and I have an alternative hypothesis.

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T0: TEAM settle on a normal tile & work a floodplains (3/0/1). Their GNP is 19. We know this from the T0 demos after they settled but no-one else did. They start to research Hunting (or don't select a tech, it's irrelevant which for the GNP).

T1-T5: TEAM switch to working a 0c tile (probably 1/2/0, extrapolating from the production numbers knowing that Gillette are the only ones with 1 production on this turn. Alternatively, they're the guys with the 4 yield tile available - was it forested deer (2/2/0?) we speculated? That'd fit with going Hunting first). Still researching Hunting, their GNP is 18. Someone else has the top GNP of 19 - Pirates or Menagerie.

T6-T10: TEAM have now finished Hunting at end of last turn & switch research to a tech with a single pre-requiste (possibilities are Pottery (I don't think The Wheel counts for pre-req calculations, is this true?) or Archery, I'd guess Pottery). They also work the 3/0/1 tile again. This puts 65 beakers into Pottery & they'd need 4 more turns to finish it at this GNP.

[Note that if TEAM worked a 3c tile "for real" and swapped off it each time so we couldn't tell, then it's possible they researched Mining finishing end of T5, and so could be researching BW for a single pre-req tech.]

T11: TEAM switch research to AH (for which they have 2 pre-reqs) and switch to a 0 commerce tile (which from the other numbers can't be 1/2/0, could still be 2/2/0). Their GNP is 22.

T12: TEAM meet the second one out of Gillette & Pirates this turn, and have switched back to the 3/0/1 tile. This gives them a GNP of 24 while researching AH. They'll need 8 more turns to finish it at this tech rate.

If that's all true, I've no solid idea what Menagerie are doing It might involve tech swapping, in which case I can't really make guesses about what techs they're researching. Another possibility is that they like us are researching BW. They've probably got between 120 & 156 beakers invested in whatever it is, depending on GNP rate.

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Plako's original hypothesis is for Menagerie to have settled on the wines and I can't make the GNP of 24 fit for Menagerie:

T0: Menagerie not settled yet.

T1-T5: Menagerie settled on Wines (or another 3c tile), and didn't put beakers into a tech or researched a non-pre-req tech. Either they had a GNP of 19 (working a 1c tile) or a GNP of 18 (working a 0c tile). They accumulated between 60 and 65 beakers during these turns - enough to've finished Fishing if they were researching that, but not enough to finish any other non-pre-req tech available. A guess here is Agriculture.

T6-T10: Menagerie work a 1c tile, and research a tech they have a single pre-req for, ie Bronze Working, Masonry, Animal Husbandry, Archery. BW or AH seem most plausible to me. They accumulate 75 beakers during these turns, and would need another 7 turns to finish BW at this rate (or 5 for AH but see next).

T11: Menagerie have met both Gillette & Pirates & are researching AH working a 1c tile. Their GNP is 22 by the time we see it (ie after Gillette finish AH).

T12: I can't account for the GNP of 24 if I'm trying to make it Menagerie on Wines - the only way I can make the numbers work is if they're researching a tech with 2 pre-reqs that 1 or less known civs have and working a 1c tile. Which isn't possible with the techs they know. So you'd have to swap in the TEAM one from the hypothesis above.

If this is what's happening then TEAM have accumulated between 60 & 66 beakers since researching Hunting & these are invested in one or more non-pre-req techs (Fishing, Mining, Mysticism). And they've put a single turn of research into AH.

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I don't much like either one, they involve too many ifs & unknowns. But I've written them out as much to see if anything later contradicts them as anything else

[darrelljs]

I think we can assume the starts are not remotely symmetrical, so while there might be a wines (or similar commerce boosting tile) in Menagerie's BFC there is no reason to suspect it.

Darrell

[pling]

Mostly what happened was us getting BW

Of note, everyone is working a 3f tile. Two teams have 2h, the other two have 1h. Possibly 2 teams settled on PH - Pirates & Menagerie (we know it would be these two from Turn 0 & Gillette's graphs). Alternatively someone has a 3/1/x tile to work.

Mechanics question: Graphs are a turn behind demos, is that right?

I think we can assume the starts are not remotely symmetrical

Yeah, the evidence keeps piling up for that, time for me to just assume it

[pling]

Menagerie had a 6 point score increase & a 2k soldier increase - which indicates they researched Animal Husbandry. I think they must've also put some beakers into another tech - even at the lowest GNP I think they can have they'd've got AH a couple of turns ago.

Still thinking about what the GNPs mean, but I shall post this now and think more later

[pling]

TEAM got a tech, and 2k soldier points. And rival top GNP dropped to 19. I think that means that the previous high GNPs were TEAM, and I think that the tech they got was Animal Husbandry. And I think they must have several beakers invested in something else too, a tech with one pre-req like Pottery.

This whole thing with figuring out the GNPs is great practice in "being wrong in public" though And my inability to figure out who has which GNP & how does rather affect the solidity of my conclusions about which techs people have At least they've all got techs with 2k soldier points so far, and there's a limited number of those available

Edit: And as if to underline that paragraph, I've just realised I can't tell for sure that it was TEAM that got the 2k soldier point increase - it was either them or Menagerie, and I suppose I need to figure out if it's possible for Menagerie to've got a Warrior built this turn.

2 teams have 6 food (we're 3rd with 5 food), so have an improved tile (caveat, if someone has settled on a food resource & has 3 food in the capital you can get 6f by working a FP but they'd've had to not do that at any other point so far, seems a less likely hypothesis?). Not sure we can say much about which teams are plausible, but I'm open to suggestions