WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

Whoops, forgot my reasoning.

Anyway, when Lewwyn makes that post on Night Nine - assuming there are 2 wolves besides Lewwyn, they need 2 mislynches for the win. So Lewwyn puts down the 2 villagers with the most heat. I don't think he tries to be cute and mislynch someone when victory is that close. The fact that he only initially puts down 2 names for wolves is a bit telling in hindsight either: he's trying to get his best chance at a victory.

[waterbat]

damn it. had a whole post - not just one quote

not sure what happened somehow submitted the screen that i was cut&pasting from instead of the main window.

I think thestick has been voted up too easily for him to be mafia. He's been around (based on PBEM42), just hasn't had time to read and think. If he was mafia, I think he'd have been fed some lines to put out to avoid suspicion. Same goes for Mattimeo.

I still like the vote on Bigger (fluff posts, responding to accusations by instead defending a townie for cred) and the bandwagons coincide nicely with trying to take pressure off of him.

not sure about this one, pindicator - it comes before 290 - #285. but here he states basically - if mattimeo were scum, he'd be fed some lines to avoid suspicion. votes bigger, but then a few turns later he adopts Bigger's idea to go onto mattimeo ?

posts that mattimeo has disappeared even though it was pretty obvious mattimeo was sleeping and then this at the deadline:

Going to switch to Bigger, although I would much prefer Mattimeo hanging.

pindicator, a vote on Merovech is absolutely useless at this point.

Does this sound like a villager-Jkaen post?

I am amazed the wolves didnt push somebody else much harder to save him, well done village, I agree the claim was suspicious, I just assumed anybody with 6 or so hours to go on the block would be innocent and put there by wolves, I guess not

so then the last post and catwalk is off of mattimeo.

not cherry picking pindicator - i just didnt see where he picked up bigger's idea - he was suspicious of bigger

[waterbat]

@pindicator - what about where he throws meiz in at the end, but not in his real list?

my gut is telling me lynch jkaen - meiz for the win - but its my gut, its only marginally smarter than my brain and that's a pretty low hurdle.

[Catwalk]

The best argument I can think of for my innocence is my showdown with Merovech. Had Merovech not imploded like he did, I very likely would hang. His implosion could not be known to wolves ahead of time, and this was the tally 48 minutes before lynch:

Catwalk - 7 - Azza, Lewwyn, Pindicator, Qgqqqqq, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod, Merovech
Merovech - 5 - uberfish, Catwalk, Waterbat, Mattimeo, novice
Rowain - 2 - Gaspar, tasunke
Selrahc - 2 - Jkaen, Meiz
Gaspar - 1 - Rowain

Players not voting: Arromir, Injera, Molach, Selrahc

Lewwyn was pushing me heavily, Mattimeo was voting Merovech throughout and Molach wasn't voting. There was little movement, and there was only idle discussion of other candidates. It was obvious well before this that one of us would hang. Merovech's claim was the only thing causing votes to move, I wasn't around to defend myself.

I would also like to point out that I pursued Mattimeo with considerable vigour, and pushed him repeatedly to let us know which targets he protected. He was strongly against that, and it later turned out he would have had a harder time lying if he'd had to reveal his night targets.

As for thestick, two wolves were on him and he himself was not voting. If the wolf plan was to bus him, why would I not simply go along with it and claim town cred? I had to fight suspicion for a long time because of defending thestick, and it seems it's still sticking to me.

I will reread a bunch today and come up with more than this, I know defending alone is not enough. Just wanted to say that I'm still here and still fighting for my innocence.

[waterbat]

yes catwalk - that was the point at which i went "no way catwalk is scum now!" and i think a lot of others as well.

im wondering though if i should even make my opinions known at this point - afraid they will color the decisions of those that suspect me heavily.

[Twinkletoes89]

I would also like to point out that I pursued Mattimeo with considerable vigour, and pushed him repeatedly to let us know which targets he protected. He was strongly against that, and it later turned out he would have had a harder time lying if he'd had to reveal his night targets.

As for thestick, two wolves were on him and he himself was not voting. If the wolf plan was to bus him, why would I not simply go along with it and claim town cred? I had to fight suspicion for a long time because of defending thestick, and it seems it's still sticking to me.

On Mattimeo - pushing him to reveal targets could quite easily be seen as a mafia play (to know how many charges used, who would be riskier targets etc) so to say that that helps your cause for innocence is not really that useful.

Also, can you point out where he said that he would have had a harder time lying if he had to reveal his targets? That sounds like something that would only be said after being lynched or away from the main thread - could it have been in the mafia thread perhaps?

On thestick - the suspicion sticks because you acted pretty suspiciously. If you are innocent, you didn't know that 2 mafia were on him at the time nor that he himself were mafia so you can't use that as an excuse as it is all in hindsight rather than your judgement at the time. The only way you would know that at the time is if you were a mafia member yourself. You were by far the most vocal pusher of the Bigger bandwagon, and though you had a very short dalliance with calling out a sleeping Mattimeo, when the chips were down and things were getting tight you swapped back on to Bigger to try and save thestick.

Its one of the most damningly visible suspicious acts in this game so to complain about getting heat for it is a bit weak really.

Also, in general your play really has struck me as different all the way through. Something is always nagging me in the back of my mind. You were much more emphatic and willing to hunt than I ever remember you being before yet it felt to me like your reasoning was never really that strong and I cannot forget your time when you basically said you were following novice.

Then this 'going quiet' feels wrong too. Before the forum switch you had said a few game days previously that you would be super busy and not able to respond much - which I believe was when you were under most attack. But until the switch over your play didn't really change much and that struck me as odd. Only now do you start coming out to try and fight again but its not the same and it feels like you would have just tried to sail to the end if you weren't personally under attack.

That's my feeling on you right now, feel free to try and change my mind

[Twinkletoes89]

im wondering though if i should even make my opinions known at this point - afraid they will color the decisions of those that suspect me heavily.

Well giving us nothing won't exactly do you any favours either :P

Got something to hide?

[waterbat]

Novice why are you so sure Catwalk is innocent?

sorry catwalk, found this post back in the archives.

what do you think about this? To me it looks like this attempt to get novice to lay out his case on your innocence would be useful if you flipped scum. Lewwyn could then use it later in the endgame to put dirt on novice.

[Catwalk]

On Mattimeo - pushing him to reveal targets could quite easily be seen as a mafia play (to know how many charges used, who would be riskier targets etc) so to say that that helps your cause for innocence is not really that useful.

Not following this at all, sorry. How would it be a mafia play to push another mafia with a known power role to reveal which targets he's protecting?

Also, can you point out where he said that he would have had a harder time lying if he had to reveal his targets? That sounds like something that would only be said after being lynched or away from the main thread - could it have been in the mafia thread perhaps?

He didn't say that, and I didn't say or imply that he did. I said that it turned out that having to reveal his targets would have made it harder for him to lie. I think the whole exchange with Injera showed exactly that. Do you disagree with that?

On thestick - the suspicion sticks because you acted pretty suspiciously. If you are innocent, you didn't know that 2 mafia were on him at the time nor that he himself were mafia so you can't use that as an excuse as it is all in hindsight rather than your judgement at the time. The only way you would know that at the time is if you were a mafia member yourself. You were by far the most vocal pusher of the Bigger bandwagon, and though you had a very short dalliance with calling out a sleeping Mattimeo, when the chips were down and things were getting tight you swapped back on to Bigger to try and save thestick
Its one of the most damningly visible suspicious acts in this game so to complain about getting heat for it is a bit weak really.

I'm also not following here. I was arguing that as a mafia play, it would be suicidal to defend thestick after the mafia had already decided to bus him. What would be gained from it? I was innocent, and I had no idea who was on him. Are you saying it's unreasonable to argue that it's highly unlikely a wolf would go down this easily on day 1? Also, do you find it likely that I'd pick another wolf for the lynch in order to save thestick? There was real pressure on Mattimeo, enough that it made him claim. This claim was later instrumental in hanging him. I'm not complaining, I'm telling you how I see it.

Also, in general your play really has struck me as different all the way through. Something is always nagging me in the back of my mind. You were much more emphatic and willing to hunt than I ever remember you being before yet it felt to me like your reasoning was never really that strong and I cannot forget your time when you basically said you were following novice.

Then this 'going quiet' feels wrong too. Before the forum switch you had said a few game days previously that you would be super busy and not able to respond much - which I believe was when you were under most attack. But until the switch over your play didn't really change much and that struck me as odd. Only now do you start coming out to try and fight again but its not the same and it feels like you would have just tried to sail to the end if you weren't personally under attack.

That's my feeling on you right now, feel free to try and change my mind

I had a strong hunch on Azza and I pursued it. The responses to that pursuit (by him and by others) sounded highly suspicious to me, so I stuck with it. I stand by that play. As for the rest, I know I've acted weird. Being super busy was related to personal matters which got resolved. I don't expect you to believe that nor does it clear me, but it's the reason why I posted that at the time. Being inactive for the past 2 days is partly because of the forum switch and partly because I'm getting lost again. I will keep trying to change your mind.

waterbat, it looks to me like he's trying to hang me. novice backing my innocence was a big road block for that, so he tried to see if he could poke it or not.

[Twinkletoes89]

I may have misread some of what you were trying to say on the mattimeo front there Catwalk so I will have a think on that for a while.

I will take issue on your assumption that it would have been suicidal for a mafia member to defend thestick after a bus was decided.

1) You are still alive despite that fact. Whether villager or mafia that means that despite defending thestick you have survived. Why could that not be the same for a mafia member?

2) I'm not so sure that the 'bus' was completely set in stone. The way the wind was blowing after Mattimeo's reveal, it seemed like thestick would hang by a large margin, thus a bus is the most painfree way of dealing with it. When momentum starts to appear for a Bigger lynch, I think that some mafia would have used that as a chance to perhaps avoid having to bus thestick, especially after it started to get close. I don't for a second think that the mafia would have decided to go full steam ahead with a bus come what may, so to say that mafia wouldn't try to push a villager alternative (as some I'm sure did) is a little off for me.

3) Even if the 'bus' was decided, I think that the mafia may well have wanted it to be close rather than a massive majority vote. If its a large majority, it will be interpreted 100% as a bus and those who voted for him will be suspected as mafia. If it gets close, but never close enough to stop it happening, then those on thestick will gain a lot more credit than suspicion for nailing a mafia despite a late 'push' to save him.

4) Its important for the mafia that one death of one of them does not lead them to everyone else. Thus I think that it is highly unlikely that there were no mafia on the save thestick/lynch bigger bandwagon as if thestick was indeed lynched, some of them would be put into jeopardy by being on the bigger bandwagon (though surrounded by a number of villagers) while others would have the chance of deep cover under the credit of delivering a mafia member.

Thus, in short, I do think that it is a more than credible mafia play to defend thestick vigorously and push an innocent alternative.