The good news is nothing has shown up yet. The bad news:
We're down to average in food, and number 2 in solider count, with 2 more axes to come in the next two turns! It would be nice to build terraces or another settler but I think this is the number of axes we need to ensure survival.
This isn't the game I was hoping to play at all. (And I wouldn't like the game where we didn't settle Barbiere where it is any better - it's the economically strongest second city site.) If there's a silver lining it's that our start can support this many axes better than Retep's can, so if we don't die now we'll have an economy advantage. Though, as PRO it's going to be basically impossible to take cities cost effectively before siege.
We have a ridiculous artificially high score, because we got the 20-turn delayed increase for the holy city third ring border pop.
AH next seems the logical tech choice, since seeing horse is really important now. We should get it in 5 turns.
Also I haven't been reporting on the W2 axe's journey much but this is interesting info:
She got hurt by a lion attacking over the river, and since then she's been healing up and stepping back through forests to get away from another lion. But the water is interesting. If it's an ocean than Retep may indeed be sandwiched. It could be a lake though.
(August 28th, 2013, 10:09)WilliamLP Wrote: So nothing is on our doorstep yet. Defenses on turn 46 are (2 archers, 1 axe, 2 quechua). On turn 48 we add two more axes to the city.
Whew, that's a relief. Now we should go and kill him with the axes that he forced us to build. :LOL:
(August 28th, 2013, 10:09)WilliamLP Wrote: The fast oracle plan is basically shot. I think with two more axes we're basically stabilized and hopefully Retep will realize he's not getting in, though he may be quite literally in an all-or-nothing mindset. (This is of course what you said would happen. )
Yeah,... but 1T before I also said that you might be able to fit a settler in so I won't be rubbing it in.:LOL: I want to congratulate you on your strong, immediate response to the threat.
Having just stated that I won't be rubbing it in,....the next couple sentence might come off a little bit like I'm rubbing it in.
TBH it was a near certainty to me that Retep would act this way - I consider it to be an optimal move when boxed in. 'If' wasn't a question but only 'who' and/or 'when'. Our fast military mobilization response combined with Baccus's continued 3-warrior army I think will do a lot to answer the question of "who" Retep will target. Retep taking a quick glance at the power graphs + a flash of metal units from us and Baccus is just screaming relative 'low hanging fruit' right now.
Rushing is about rushing so, if Retep's axes don't make an appearance in the next few turns then I think that we'll be able to conclude that we're not the target and in fact, that they're moving in the other direction. Retep's going to want to concentrate his axes. I wouldn't be surprised if, to maximize his chances of success, he'll send all of his axes + archer to reinforce while keeping only a warrior in his capital.
I don't doubt that the warrior and scout means that we were the intended target. But whether he's still coming at us or if he's turned his axes around, he'll keep the warrior and scout there for eyes on us and the 'best defense is a good offense', probably trusting that his power graph will keep us at home. So we should be ready to take advantage of this situation.
I know that this is going to be counter to your instincts but you really should consider it. Retep has no military flexibility since he's whipped down his cities to size 1 or size 2. If his army is out of position he's a sitting duck. His capital is also on a hill, so accompanying archers can hold against his returning army.
Regarding the whole early war and/or to choke or not to choke. I think that it's arguable that we shouldn't have let Retep hook up his copper so easily while having a UU. Relative to Retep or the rest of the world, our response to Retep having those axes is putting us more behind than the cost of my proposed choke. In fact, I think that I could even go so far as to say that, without copper, facing those 3 axes right now with only archers we could call it a critical mistake to have let him hook up that copper while having a UU and planting in his face. Each axe would have odds on our defending archers in Barbiere; he could also pillage at will; if he bypassed Barbiere and forked us, our capital would be at size1 right now from having to whip so many archer defenders. So we were more lucky that good in my mind.
I'm saying this not because I want to rub it in, but because we're going to be facing the same situation in 60 more turns when he gets construction. This proposed move, if we get lucky, could be our lowest cost option in dealing with Retep.
I have some more thoughts on how we should play our cards but I'm only going to write them down if there's a non-zero chance that you would want to do this. :LOL:
Quote:TBH it was a near certainty to me that Retep would act this way - I consider it to be an optimal move when boxed in.
I guess it depends on what you mean by optimal. Does it improve his chances to win the game or be relevant longer? It was reasonable for him to guess that we don't have copper. But even so, assuming we stuff cities with as many archers as possible, what does he gain? He wouldn't even get to keep Barbiere if he captured it since we would whip to size 1 and it has no culture yet.
If you reason that a zero chance of winning means every move has zero risk by definition, so play for unlikely outcomes, sure. He could be thinking we may not be prepared at all. This is more reasonable in games without precise power graph visible.
About choking and devoting more early scouting to aggression... I'll just say that in a 4 player game if two of me start together and two of you start together, one of me will win the game.
But oh yes, if retep's going the other way then we should absolutely attack him when or if we can figure that out. He's playing out of desperation so whichever way he's going he's going to be vulnerable on the other side. And Bacchus's power numbers are pretty low!
What do you think of offering peace again? I haven't done it after the first rejection to not be annoying, but maybe it would give him an idea to turn his army south instead to what may be a squishier target?
(August 29th, 2013, 09:42)WilliamLP Wrote: If you reason that a zero chance of winning means every move has zero risk by definition, so play for unlikely outcomes, sure. He could be thinking we may not be prepared at all. This is more reasonable in games without precise power graph visible.
Zero game chance = zero risk. Pretty much how I see it.
(August 29th, 2013, 09:42)WilliamLP Wrote: About choking and devoting more early scouting to aggression... I'll just say that in a 4 player game if two of me start together and two of you start together, one of me will win the game.
:LOL: :LOL: :LOL: :LOL: I love it!
(August 29th, 2013, 09:42)WilliamLP Wrote: But oh yes, if retep's going the other way then we should absolutely attack him when or if we can figure that out. He's playing out of desperation so whichever way he's going he's going to be vulnerable on the other side. And Bacchus's power numbers are pretty low!
Awesome!
(August 29th, 2013, 09:42)WilliamLP Wrote: What do you think of offering peace again? I haven't done it after the first rejection to not be annoying, but maybe it would give him an idea to turn his army south instead to what may be a squishier target?
I would say no. For us to have any chance we need to take out his eyes in the area. That would make him a little suspicious for sure,...but I'd still guess that he'd be confident in his power levels. And the promise of low hanging Baccus fruit will continue to draw him. Like you said: Zero game chance = zero risk so he's unlikely to back off from the long-bomb.
Also, to the degree that offering peace signals weakness it's more of an invite to head in our direction.
Oh by the way, the answer to your implicit question in the image is "no" unfortunately. The mountain doesn't block the view to the forested plains hill unless they're directly in the way, so both the tiles SSW and SWW can see it.
Also in consideration is that he'll get his third ring border pop on T52. Peaks can see over hills or forests (I think), but apparently not forested hills, weirdly.
Unfortunately Retep still has his scout and with no two movers it's impossible to remove his visibility even before then. Otherwise we could stage 1SW of Barber with 2 workers, and then the next turn road and move SW-W right into his territory.
I'll admit when settling the city I didn't appreciate just how vulnerable it was to surprises coming from the SW diagonal.
(August 29th, 2013, 10:17)MindyMcCready Wrote: We need to get some workers roading the tile to take out his scout in one move. Make sure that we don't just chase him away but kill it.
Oh that's a really good point - we could double road and attack and kill the scout on the same turn. Thanks, I hadn't thought of that.
Hmmm, that border pop is going to make it more difficult. Retep gains 1T of notice for being able to see the forest-plains-hill so he'll get 3T of whip/travel no matter how we cut it. That's time for a full chop (unless disrupted by a WII), whips + travel from city #2 if its less than 4 tiles away and roaded.
It would have to be an impressive force from us combined with luck in Retep's army positioning to have a resounding success.
Once we know which way Retep's troops are, if we've deterred him, we could consider hiding our power. 3/4 build an axe, 3/4 build a spear/archer and then whip them to completion. Double-edged sword if we haven't deterred him though. :LOL:
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