OSG 26 - The Bearperor Returns

[RefSteel]

It's just a question of running the numbers: Weapons each hit their targets 50% of the time, +10% per attack level (e.g. Battle Computer I) and -10% per defense level of their target. "Missile Defense" also counts for bombs and spores (and torps, I think). Chance to hit never goes below 5% though, even if you're shooting with attack level 0 against defense level 15 or something. There's also a damage bonus for hit probabilities above 100% but those rarely come into play and never take weapons damage above its normal maximum.

So in this case:

Sili missile bases have attack level 3 (Mk2 Computer + Battle Scanner) and our Nukers have missile defense of 4 (small hull + maneuver 2) so 40% of their shots will hit. Hyper-Vs always one-shot Nukers when they hit, so each of 37 bases firing 3 missile apiece will kill roughly 45 Nukers per round. They'll also have initiative since we lack battle scanners, and our Nukers only move 2 spaces per turn, meaning we'll have to weather four hits (barring convenient asteroids) before we can drop our first bombs. This means we'll lose 180 Nukers before we even get in the fight. If they were firing Scatters, we'd multiply that by 5; with BC4, we'd multiply it by 1.5 (since they'd hit 60% of the time instead of 40%).

Now our bombs drop. We have Attack Level 1, they have no ECM (yet) so only the planet's natural level 1 defense, so half our bombs will hit. Nukes do 3-12 damage, minus 2 for the Silicoid's shielding, so 1-10 for an average of ~5.5 per hit and ~2.75 per bomb (since only half are hitting). Titanium bases have 50 hp each, so 18 bombs will just about kill one of them. It would be possible to run a regression or something to figure out the exact minimum number of bombers we'd need to burn 37 of these, but we'd want to build in some margin anyway in case of early bad rolls.

So let's take the case where we send exactly 350 bombers. ~180 die en route, then 170 bombs drop, taking out abut 9 bases. Then another volley of missiles launches - fewer this time, since some of the bases just burned - but they won't hit until we move our bombers or end our turn. Thus we get another full volley in, which kill another ~9 bases (they should therefore be down to about 18-19). Their missiles hit next, killing about 35 more bombers, and the remaining bases launch; then we hit them again, dropping roughly seven more bases, and the exchange continues: 20+ more bombers go down, 11-12 bases launch, then sixish bases burn, followed by maybe 15 more bombers, and then we destroy the last of the bases, possibly losing a few more bombers in between, depending on the dice. So it turns out I overestimated the number we'd need: Around 100 of our 350 bombers would survive, and that's plenty of margin unless we want to go after Phyco afterward. (It'll probably have almost half as many bases.) But 300 bombers would come up quite short, as you can tell by running the same set of calculations.

If the rocks got ECM 3, which is on their next computer tier, our hit rate would drop from 50% to 20%. I actually probably overestimated the number we'd need in this case even more (and in the case of planetary shields as well) because I was taking shortcuts instead of calculating out the whole fight in advance each time. The point stands though: It'll cost us hundreds of extra BC in bombers (and way more if we try and fail than if we have to overbuild but then succeed) if we wait until the enemy has better defense technology.

Conclusion from the above for those who didn't read it: My estimates above are all overestimates. If the Silis don't get any new tech, 350 Nukers should be plenty! (But 300 would basically have no chance. It's all about the margin.)

[Psillycyber]

OSG 26 - Part 8 - 2390 to 2400

Okay, here's the save (attached). The full report to follow in the morning. --> Edit: See spoiler tag for the full report.

Psillycyber couldn't believe it. He felt like he was just finally settling into retirement. "I wanna go somewhere...out of the way. Some star system on the outer rim of our empire. I don't want any bother at all." Psillycyber had told his travel agent.

"Well, you could check out the Onlyou system. Lots of fun, relaxing activities to do there. Cruising, yachting, canoeing, swimming, diving, fishing...actually, it's...mostly water sports, come to think of it. Not much else to do on an ocean planet. But I hear you are a fan of that sort of thing. I think a several month vacation aboard a Carnivore Cruise ship might be just the thing you need, Psillycyber."

"You know what, that does sound good." Psillycyber concurred. "Sign me up!"

Just then, Psillycyber's smartphone lit up. "An urgent message from the Bulrathi Senate..." Psillycyber growled. "What do they want now?..."

The speaker of the Senate's graying mane flashed into view on the videophone. "Sir, the Bulrathi Empire needs you! Bearperor Ianus's term limits are up, and we need a new Bearperor. Not just any Bearperor. We need a veteran. An expert diplomat."

Whoa, whoa, whoa...I'm not sure why you think I"m an expert diplomat. My only achievement while in office was to get us into a war with the Silicoids."

"And what a glorious war it has been!"

"I guess if you say so," Psillycyber mumbled. Sending young cubs into war is never a fun thing."

"That's EXACTLY what I'm talking about! You are the best bear to bear (no pun intended, sir) this message of peace to the upcoming meeting of the Galactic Senate that is rumored to be gathering as we speak. You must explain to them the gravitas, the awful horror of intra-galactic war. Our pollsters tell us that there are many bloodthirsty diplomats from the other races calling for unity under those despicable bird-brains to launch a final war of eradication against our kind. You must be a voice of peace and reason at this conference, or else we are doomed!"

"Ehhh...if you are worried about votes, just fudge the census data a little bit. A few million bears here, a few million there...who's going to notice?"

"Those bird-brains will notice. They have the eyes of a hawk. Figuratively, I mean. And literally too, I suppose. The point is, they have enough brain cells to do some basic math to notice if things don't add up. And don't even think about sneaking something like that past the Psilons."

"Pffft! The Psilons? More like the "Try-lons," har har har!" Psillycyber guffawed. "Pretty sad when a race has more hands than planets."

"Even so, they could have the deciding votes, the erratic ambidextrous bastards...unless we do something drastic."

Psillycyber mused on these grave words. "What about an educational campaign to...uhhh...you know...get our young adult bear scouts to...uh...you know...do a little more....chick-a-bow-wow...as the youths call it, these days...am I right? Yes, that shall be my first order of business as Bearperor!"

"Fantastic!" the senator exclaimed. "Just, uh, make sure to hire someone else to be the spokesperson for this program, OK?"

"Done and done." concluded Psillycyber.

With that, Psillycyber chartered the next shuttle to Ursa to resume his duties as Bearperor of the Bulrathi Empire.

Here are the notes from Psillycyber's logbook for this term in office:

2390:
The council vote will be coming up any year now. And according to my calculations, we will lose the council vote as things curretnly stand, but just bearly (ha...ha...?) We need just 1 more vote to stave off final war. So we must get our population from 944 million, where it currently stands, to 1000 million to give us 11 votes. Let the "Billion Bear Baby Boom" program commence! I sent many planets over to ECO spending. Sent 6 million transports from Onlyou to 100AcreWood (more scheduled).

I got non-aggression pacts with the Psilons and Sakkra.





The birds, however, declined.

I have postponed the nuker 2.0 production at Keeta. Population and surviving the vote are the most important at the moment, and the Silicoids will not be teching quickly, so we should have some time. When I do decide to ramp up war spending, it will be all at once with many planets participating.

The Silicoids will colonize Rana, the ultra-rich radiated world in the NW, next turn. I know that the plan is to eventually scoop up all these planets once we get controlled radiated, but still, ultra-rich...not sure how I feel about letting the Silicoids play around with that for a while. But, there is nothing I can do about it. We know their colony ships are armed, and all I have is a cubscout 2.0 nearby. I really hope that this does not trigger the council vote next turn, as I'm not sure that our population will be in place yet to give us the votes...

Also, I decided to scout Phyco with a spare nuker 2.0 that won't be doing anything anytime soon. Just curious how many missile bases the Silicoids have there....

I checked with the Silicoids to see if they would make peace. No dice. I figured it wouldn't hurt to have peace for the short-term, to help with the council vote.

Speaking of which...I almost had a heart attack when I saw the council vote come up at the end of the year. I did not think we were ready. I was worried that the population increase would not be registered until next year, and thus we would not have the votes. But as it turned out, the council decided to grant us 11 votes. I guess that this year's population growth was factored in after all. Also, unexpectedly:





The Sakkra and Psilons abstained!



As did the Meklars (no surprise). Here were the final vote tallies:

Alkari: 13 (Alkari)
Sakkra: 6 (Abstain)
Psilons: 2 (Abstain)
Meklars: 2 (Abstain)
Silicoids: 2 (Alkari)
Us: 11 (Abstain)

Total votes: 36

With 13 votes, we would have had a blocking veto. So our population + the Meklar would have already blocked the Alkari, even without the other abstentions. Soon, we will probably have a blocking veto on our own....

2391:
With the vote safely dealt with, I ordered 20 million transports to leave Onlyou towards 100AcreWood (I had sent 6 million the previous year too).

I also revisited the idea of building enough nuker 2.0 ships to take Cryslon. Even if the Silicoids got a tech in the 11th hour that would make that impossible (unlikely), we could at least bomb some of the other planets and earn brownie points with the Psilons, Sakkra, and Alkari. That's what we need most of all right away—not more factories, but time. We need to buy ourselves some time, and in any case this will be a great way to do so.

After I decided to resume Bearperor Ianus's push towards Silicoid conquest, I called up the cubscout interns to do some extensive calculations. They reported shortly thereafter that our empire could produce about 140 nukers per year if practically every planet devoted itself to the cause.

"Excellent news!" I exclaimed. "Now, let's get to work on building Friendships!"

"Yes, sir, Psillycyber. Our diplomats are hard at work courting favor with the Sakkra, Psilons, and Alkari."

"No, no, no, I mean this new ship design that I've made, the "Friendship2."



Get to work building those at every planet that can we can spare."

"But sir...it will take decades before any of those ships are ready." The interns looked at each other with befuddlement. One of the interns whispered, "I hope Psillycyber hasn't been drinking the same bearbrew as he was the last time he started building an empty cruiser hull thinking it was a colony ship..."

"Hey, I heard that! These furry ears are operational, you know. As are those nukers and NPGs just sitting at Keeta like bumps on a log. How about we send those to Pollus to bomb the smithereens out of the new Silicoid colony there to get some diplomatic brownie points, and meanwhile get to work on those Friendships."

"Okaaaaay...."



2392:
A nuker investigated Phyco. 11 missile bases. 33 population, 101 factories. Phyco apparently just sent 15 million north to Pollus (I can see the transports headed north). Too bad there won't be a Silicoid colony when they get there...

A cubscout investigated Esper way down in the south. No habitable planets, just an asteroid field. The cubscout was sent on to another planet 2 parsecs further SW.

In other news, the farthest-out planets (Fnarglo and Dither) changed back from building Friendships to building nukers.

2393:
An NPG scouted Cryslon. 37 missile bases, 69 pop, 306 factories, no fleet.

The nuker contingent vaporized the new Silicoid colony of Pollus.



(As it would turn out, the Silicoids would have another (magic) colony ship en route to there within a few turns. We might be playing a bit of whack-a-mole with them for a while....)

Also, I wasn't expecting that fleet to make it to Pollus in two turns like it did. It had said "ETA: 3 turns." When I tried sending the fleet back to Keeta, it said, "ETA: 2 turns," so I thought that that would work for joining it with the rest of the invasion being assembled. But that nebula must be screwing with our ETA read-outs because the return journey ended up taking 3 turns, making that contingent 1 turn late to join the Cryslon invasion.

In other news, we scouted some very nice planets on the outer western and southern rims:

*Vulcan, size 95 terran to the west of the Silicoids - reachable by LR colony ship, or regular colony ship once Selia is colonized.



*Nyarl, ultra-rich size 20 inferno to the NW of the Silicoids.



*Rha, rich size 35 dead in the extreme South reachable by LR dead colony ship (not sure if we can build those yet...), or a Moonbase2 once the blue star above it is colonized.



Unfortunately, I don't have the fleet slots to spare for any new designs, and the planets are all building up for the Cryslon invasion anyways. But soon....

2394:
A cubscout investigated Paladia. I queued up a Moonbase2 from Fnarglo to head there immediately. The plan will be to build another Moonbase2 immediately behind that one to snag Rha to the South of there.



You can also see our preparations for war in the screenshot above. Construction continues on the nukers--er, I mean, "Friendships" (for any Silicoid spies listening in).

2395:
Pirates in the Reticuli star system are disrupting trade routes, C-3PO reports.



I'm not too concerned. I think that is a Sakkra system. It should be cleared up in no time.

In other news, the bulk of the invasion of Cryslon was set to depart.



More are rallying at Porridge to converge upon Cryslon in 4 turns.

2396:
Our scouts report sighting of a "Whale"-class Silicoid ship over Cryslon. Duralloy armor, missiles confirmed. Hmmm....



The Meklar also ran off our scout at Rha.



It looks like we will lose out on that planet. I have changed the build at Fnarglo to a regular colony 2 to be sent to Vulcan.

By the way, we got the Alkari up to "relaxed" status, and they agreed to a non-aggression pact!



Although they are now back in alliances with the Sakkra and Psilons, so not all is rosy. Still, I don't think they have met the Meklar yet. We should be OK for the 2399 council vote.

At end of turn, we settled Selia (dead planet in the NW) and renamed it Bruno.



Also, the Sakkra cleared up the pirates in short order. I don't know whether that's good or bad....



2397:
Nothing major to report. The calm before the storm.

2398:
On the interturn, the Battle of Cryslon ensued.



The cubscout and honeybee IIs were irrelevant to the battle, as they retreated immediately (as per RB regulations), and the planet's missile bases didn't target them anyways, so oh well.

The Whale was nowhere to be found. It must have sauntered off to one of the other Silicoid worlds. Bad move! But a very fortunate thing for us! Also, it must have had Titanium II armor, not Duralloy Armor, because Cryslon's missile bases were still showing only 50 hp. Weird ship design....

The planet's missile bases targeted the nuker stack exclusively. Out of about 475 nukers at the beginning of the battle, 351 survived to close with the planet.



All of these 351 survived, as it only took two rounds of bombing to destroy all of the Silicoid bases, which didn't even let the missile bases hit with another volley.

So, we finally got to scout Cryslon! Now we can send transports. I plan on sending one group from Keeta (58 million in 7 turns), plus some from Porridge (42 million in 6 turns), plus some from Primodius (4 turns - the amount will be up to the next player), coordinating them to arrive all on the same turn.

2399:
The nuker and NPG stacks at Cryslon were split up to soften up Phyco and some of the other planets. Seeing as how the Silicoids colonized Vulcan, I scrapped the colony ship destined for there, as we can gropo it from Bruno instead. I left some nukers and NPGs at Cryslon, just in case they tried to build any new missile bases.

I don't think it would be wise to glass Phyco as of yet because I fear that that would cause some races (such as the Alkari) to lose contact with the Silicoids, and we would stop getting our diplo bonuses for warring against the Silicoids with them. I just plan on softening that planet up a bit. Speaking of which....



Yeehaw! Diplo's lookin' great!

On the interturn, the Silicoids counter-attacked at Cryslon with two large ships.



There's no need to fight them just now. I can retreat and come back before the invasion transport wave is due in 6 turns. We might need some more NPGs. I'd have more here, except I sent some down to Phyco to escort the nukers that will soften up that planet. Those can return in short order. Also, I have reinforcements waiting at Primodius. And we can build more. Don't worry, we will regain air superiority over Cryslon before our transports arrive.

Also, the council vote came up again. Here are the results:

Alkari: 13 votes (Alkari)
Sakkra: 6 votes (Alkari)
Psilons: 2 votes (Abstain)
Meklars: 2 votes (Abstain)
Silicoids: 2 votes (Alkari)
Us: 12 votes (Abstain)

Total votes: 37
Alkari votes: 21 (56%) - no decision.

2400:
I queued up 42 million to be sent from Porridge to help take Cryslon in 6 turns. If you are the next Bearperor in office, feel free to alter that if you like. Also consider sending some from Primodius in two turns (it's a 4-turn trip from there). But it might not be necessary. 100 million might be plenty if we have firm air superiority over Cryslon.

Speaking of which...I noticed this Psilon fleet in our airspace near Primodius....



If I had to guess, I'd assume it's headed for Cryslon now that those missile bases are cleared out...but it could be headed for Primodius next turn. Perhaps consider threatening the Psilons to withdraw their fleets? Even if it is headed for Cryslon, that's not ideal because they will try to bomb out the Silicoid factories that we want to capture. Therefore....

I queued up some NPGs in Tannenberg, Ursa, Keeta, and Primodius. We might need a little more fleet-to-fleet firepower in the coming years. Feel free to change those build orders, though.

Fnarglo has maxed factories. I set it to adding to the reserve. We should have some reserve spending to play with from here on out for a while.

Eventually we might want to think about investing in some missile bases. But I'm feeling pretty good about the diplo situation right now. Still, would it be worthwhile to pre-build some nuclear missile bases for quick upgrading to Scatterpack Vs when those come in at planets that have maxed out? Does it matter?

As for Scatterpack Vs and other techs....I didn't do a whole lot of teching this turnset, with the production going into nukers. Just kept a couple hundred RP each turn going in. But some planets are getting close to maxing, so we should be able to ramp up research from here on out.

Note to the next player: the Silicoids have a lot of brand-new colonies out in the west, and we have a LOT of leftover bombers. I've sent some to Rana (ultra-rich) to make sure the Silicoids aren't building that planet up quickly and getting missile bases there. You might consider sending other groups of bombers out to some of the Silicoid planets to bomb them for brownie points with the other races. It might be a while before we get a chance to colonize them, and diplo brownie points are helpful right NOW. Plus, the Silicoids will probably just keep sending out new (magic) colony ships to replace those lost colonies. Something to think about.

One thing is for certain: the backbone of the Silicoid empire has been broken, and it is looking more and more like it is the Bulrathis' Manifest Destiny to inherit the entire western half of the galaxy.

Here's the cliff-notes version: VICTORY!!!!! (Well, not complete victory, but preliminary victory over the Silicoids).

We have bombed out the missile bases at Cryslon, with 351 of 473 nukers surviving. The Silicoid menace is doomed. 100 million transports incoming.

We also survived two council votes and have non-aggression pacts and extremely good relations with everyone. Going forward, we will probably have a veto bloc all on our own, with our population booming like it is.

Most planets are maxing x3 factories. Research has been slow, but steady at about ~400 RP/turn this turnset. No breakthroughs, but bulbs are filling up.

We settled, or got ready to settle, a few more planets.

Things are ROCKING!

(Or should I say, the rocks are getting ROCKED!)

Edit: Refsteel, you are up next, right? Go get 'em!

[RefSteel]

Wow, great turns, Psillycyber! It looks like we're really well positioned now. The Alkari are still way out ahead and capable of causing mayhem, but we're set to start catching up fast if they give us the chance!

I see the save, and I am indeed now up, but this week is very busy, and I haven't had a chance to open it or look it over yet; sorry about that!

Also I wanted to mention, as far as reports: You guys are terrific. I especially loved the in-character intro to this latest report, but I've enjoyed reading them all this game, and they're certainly much more clear about what happened than some of the in-character novellas I've posted here!

[EDIT: Roster:
Ianus - Back in a couple of days
Psillycyber - Just Played
RefSteel - UP!
Thrawn - Getting close to the two week mark! On deck? Or perhaps after Ianus?]

[Psillycyber]

Thanks, Ref! I myself thought your first turnset report was staggeringly well-written with the roleplaying in particular. I usually just throw in a little snippet at the beginning, but yours have been a blast to read.

And more importantly, this team has been a very harmonious team on the actual game. For example, Ianus's plan of preparing for the invasion of Cryslon was the right call after all, I'd say. The thing I'm most thrilled about is how it has helped our diplo. The tech that we take from the invasion will be nice, but the diplo is key in my book. Give us human players enough time with the AI neighbors off our back, and we can climb out of any tech hole we find ourselves in with the Alkari. Especially now that we outnumber them in planets. It's kind of surprising, really, that the Alkari just stopped expanding like 50 turns ago.

Also, I would likewise love to see Thrawn have a go at this save sometime soon. Both because it will be fun to see yet another playstyle, and because I'll admit that these turns are getting busy and taking a decent amount of time to play and document, and having 3 turnsets in between my next go-around would be not unwelcome.

[Ianus]

Well played Psilly! I spent the last 48 hours sweating bullets imagining the council kicking apart our fledgling empire. But given our rulers' track records I needn't have worried. What a stellar turnset! I would say that Ref should be able to put this thing in the bag, and then I won't have anything left to do...
Those daffy Psilons could spoil everything by bombing out the factories at Cryslon! And the rocks have a number of techs that we really need (well mostly Inertial Stabilizer, but the others would be nice too) and the bad news is that we can't even chase them off because of our NAP! Oh I DARE Tacheon to declare war on my next turnset! I will give him SUCH a wallop!!

[Psillycyber]

Oh right, I forgot about the NAP. So that means our fleets above Cryslon won't fight? Dergnammit....

Could we cancel the NAP? (It's probably not worth much anyways with the erratic Psilons).

Is there any chance that the Psilons would refrain from bombing and just send transports? Or will the AI always bomb in that situation?

[Ianus]

I don't know about the Psilons' current diplomatic positions but it seems that we are reaching a point where we should consider going to war with them, either preemtively or preparing for their inevitable war declaration. Obviously we need more tech right now, but we should definitely be able to hit them pretty hard with enough forethought and planning. We can't just keep kicking the pebbles (they aren't even really rocks at this point are they?) around forever. Although I'm sure that Ref has it well in hand we should think about our long-term strategery from this point on, or at least once we wrap up our war with the Silicoids. The one thing I know is that Bio Toxin Antidote is an effective victory at this point. Well maybe that and some Planetary Shields...

Ref, in an earlier post you said that damage modifiers for >100% hit probability will never increase damage above a weapon's normal maximum value. Is that true? I had never heard that before, only that >100% odds to hit increased damage. So Mauler Devices will never do more than 100 damage per shot but they will have an effectively higher minimum damage? Can you explain in any more detail? Thanks!

[RefSteel]

Eep -- thanks, guys!

Also: I finally had a minute to load the save and make sure it's 2400 so ... GOT IT!

Psillycyber: Do you know how long that Psilon fleet you pointed out near Primodius has been en route? Did it rush all the way up to that distance from Iranha this turn, or have you seen it coming for the last couple turns as well? (No worries if you're not sure, but it'll help with planning if you know.)

Ianus: I don't know the formula in any detail; my limited and second-hand understanding is that a laser with 110% chance to hit will do 4 damage slightly more often and 1 damage slightly less, but whether it might also do 3 more often or 2 less, I have no idea. I don't know if there's an upper limit where weapons will do max damage every time, and I haven't ever actually experimented to see if this design element is actually implemented in the game. I think it's somewhere in the original game manual or OSG somewhere (not necessarily with the actual formulae). Also, welcome back!

Preflight goals: Tech like mad and hold Cryslon (I don't think taking it is in doubt) without resorting to threats. Opportunistically respond to any curveballs the game might throw. Avoid getting spored our of existence by the birdies. (Whether by defense or diplomacy....)

Bio Toxin Antidote isn't in our tree, or we'd have seen it (it's at the same level as Radiated and Soil). We'll have to wait for someone else to get it, or stop spore fleets by other means (whether diplomatic or military)...

[EDIT: If they take Cryslon's orbit, they will send transports unless their first bombing run glasses the place. They'll bomb it too though since they'd have no chance at conquering it otherwise.... And our fleets will fight theirs once we conquer the planet, if they're still in orbit at that point.]

[Psillycyber]

Regarding that Psilon fleet, unfortunately I just noticed that fleet on the last turn before handing it over. Not sure of the speed or direction. But going from Iranha to Primodius or Cryslon seem like the only logical explanations based on star geometry. Cryslon would have a certain AI logic to it.

I'm guessing that the Psilon fleet won't be glassing Cryslon anytime soon. They might kill a couple of million and destroy 20-odd factories per turn, unless the large designs are just loaded up with bombs. I doubt it.

Should we perhaps build a design with a battle scanner to check out those Psilon ships?

Also, going back for controlled radiated immediately after soil enrichment will probably be pretty important. It will allow us to scoop up all of the Silicoid worlds in the West, including that delicious ultra-rich one.

As for surviving the birds...once we get battle computers IV and scatterpack V, I'll feel pretty good about being able to shoot down any death spore fleets, unless they gather up just a ridiculous number...in which case it doesn't really matter what we do, militarily.

Although the good thing about the AI management of its fleets is, it will usually take a planet and then park its death fleet there for a while as that planet is invaded and consolidated, buying the rest of the empire time to build an effective counter-attack to the designs that we see in the initial attack. So if we do get into a war with the Alkari, I wouldn't be surprised about having to sacrifice a frontline planet or two such as Celtsi. We can still come back from that.

If the AI is dumb enough to build death spore bombers that are move-1, we could always field 3 designs as a phalanx against them. Repulsor beam and/or warp dissipator sure would be nice too.

This is all assuming that the main threat is death spores, though. The Alkari might just as well have hundreds of high-level missile boats, which would require an entirely different approach (lots and lots of missile bases).

[RefSteel]

Primodius or Cryslon seem like the only logical explanations based on star geometry.

Not Primodius. They won't send a fleet to a world we already own without officially ending the NAP. I'm definitely assuming Cryslon; I was just hoping to make plans based on how soon it would get there. I'll know next turn anyway.

I'm guessing that the Psilon fleet won't be glassing Cryslon anytime soon. They might kill a couple of million and destroy 20-odd factories per turn, unless the large designs are just loaded up with bombs. I doubt it.

It'll be worse than that, I think. Four cruisers, 14 destroyers, and 2 colships, with much better tech than the Silis. The 'coids were killing 1M bears plus 5 facs per turn with just two ion-cannon--armed colships twenty-plus years ago. If we don't rush the invasion and they're moving at warp 3, they'll have at least four years to bomb the place before our transports arrive. Still probably won't be able to glass it unless they're bringing dedicated high-end bombers, but they could wreck a lot of factories. I'm much more worried that they have Death Spores and repulsor beams or something, since once they're in orbit, they're likely to stay. (And sporing the Silis to death will kill our transports too....) But yeah, I'm planning to get a scanner up there by the time a fight actually materializes. (So not for 6 more years....)

Also, going back for controlled radiated immediately after soil enrichment will probably be pretty important.

I definitely agree with this, but there's no way it happens during my turns. We've barely even started Soil research! I ... might make it a bit of a priority.

As for surviving the birds...once we get battle computers IV and scatterpack V, I'll feel pretty good about being able to shoot down any death spore fleets, unless they gather up just a ridiculous number...in which case it doesn't really matter what we do, militarily.

Among other options, one repulsor cruiser, if we live long enough to get the tech, can hold them off (as you noted). There's always something we can do if they don't come in too hard and fast. If we do end up at war with the birds, I'm most worried that they might come in with 6-shield ships that are immune to our bases, with Scatters or without. (I'm not worried about AI missile boats; their targeting decisions are terrible, and we can probably take them with fighters - or at least force them to retreat. It's bombers, spore boats, and heavy beamers that worry me. But yeah, the answer to those if they're not highly shielded, is lots of bases with Scatters and good targeting.)