[SPOILERS] Suboptimal Goes Waltzing Matilda

[suboptimal]

Turn 69
.
Let’s see if heavily damaging the hetaroi has gotten me a reprieve….



Kinda…..he’s promoted the hetaroi and healed it up.  Two archers and Boudica have moved up and he’s brought in a hetaroi at Urteau.  I shuffle some troops around – the archer moves west to be within range of the city if the hetaroi decides to attack.  The wounded horseman moves into Irukandji’s territory to heal while the unwounded one moves around the south side of the mountains – out of range of the archers for now.  New archer at Irukandji moves west, archer from Mouse Spider also moves west.  Horseman at Irukandji moves north – going to explore what’s up here, maybe pillage on the way and make his hetaroi give chase.  

To solve my situation with melee units for the time being I’m debating a slightly unorthodox solution – disconnect the iron with my last builder charge.  Cassowary could have a new builder out in 6 turns and in the meantime I can get out a spearman or two and a few warriors from Irukandji, reconnect the iron and then upgrade.  Irukandji’s first spearman will be out in four turns.  I’ve got two turns to get the builder there.  The alternative would be to save the builder for a lumber mill at Cassowary and not worry about melee units for the time being, though I don’t know if I like that approach either.

I’ve got archer builds going in two cities, neither of which will complete before Machinery.  I’ll stall machinery for one turn to get Mouse Spider’s out, then let Blue-Ringed Octopus’ archer upgrade in queue.   

My last act of the turn is to put an envoy into Zanzibar, raising per turn to just over 18.  

Output is down a little as Irukandji is now suffering from -2 war weariness.

[suboptimal]

Interturn Ponderings

One thing I’ve not been doing during the past week or so has been taking my time to seriously ponder the game while waiting for the turn to come back around.  With the holidays and a home improvement project or two getting done during my time off from work my “spare” time was at a premium.  As a result I’ve been playing in a reactionary mode since around Turn 60 without any concrete forward planning.  During my lunch break at work I went back through my notes, got back into forward planning and typed this all up.  Here goes...something?

My melee unit situation can be solved at Cassowary, barring epic disaster with my military misadventures.  The plan:

- Water mill is complete as of start off next turn.  Start a builder.
- Drama & Poetry completes on Turn 71.  At that time I’ll swap out Caravansaries and put Ilkum back in for the 30% bonus.
- One turn before the builder completes the existing builder will chop out the forest on the 2nd ring tundra hill directly south of the city center.  That should yield 56 x 1.3 ~= 72.8 .  That completes the builder and gives me ~67 overflow into an Encampment district on that same tile.  That should happen on Turn 73.
- On Turn 76 the new builder chops the forested hill west of the Encampment, completing the district and generating ~12 overflow for something else.  I’ll start swordsmen or horsemen, depending on immediate needs.  
- On subsequent turns the remaining 1/3 forests are milled.  Milling is completed and Cassowary grows to pop 4 on Turn 80.

As for the other cities

- Irukandji will finish its spearman and go back to horseman production.  It will take back the spice tile from Blue-Ringed Octopus on Turn 75 when it grows to 6 population.  After two horsemen complete (Turn 81) I’ll see where the war stands and either continue with horses or build a crossbow.
- Mouse Spider will build a builder after the archer completes.  This builder will be for lumber mills around Irukandji.  I’ll do either another builder, walls or work on the commercial hub next.
- Blue-Ringed Octopus will continue its archer.  Depending on accumulated fractional production values the archer will either complete on Turn 75 or it will upgrade in-queue to a crossbow.  

Tech/Civics:
- Turn 71: Drama & Poetry completes, Caravansaries → Ilkum, start Games & Recreation
- Turn 72: Stop Machinery, start Construction
- Turn 74: Stop Games & Recreation, start Recorded History
- Turn 75: Stop Construction, restart Machinery
- Turn 76: Machinery Completes, restart Construction
- Turn 78: Construction completes, get inspiration for G&R, G&R completes.  Agoge → Manuever, start Military Engineering
- Turn 79: Recorded History completes, Ilkum → Natural Philosophy, start Defensive Tactics

This all works out provided I can stalemate Archduke’s invasion north of Blue-Ringed Octopus, don’t get any districts pillaged and I've got the numbers right.

[suboptimal]

Turn 70

Dealing with two storms right now….Hurricane Archduke in the game and a nor’easter coming up the coast tonight.  Let’s see if I can clean up from the former as well as I will be able to clean up after the latter…..



I lost the archer near Blue-Ringed Octopus and the horseman I sent pillaging is redlined and in big trouble, most likely a lost cause.  However, the hetaroi, for the time being, is in the fog.  I expect that there’s a battering ram on its way down and the archers are positioning themselves for an advance….I’ve also cleared out the dialog for the eureka from Construction.  One more thing – Archduke is now at 293 military power and I’m at….154.  Talk about a shitshow, we’ve basically swapped places in domination scores in about 10 turns, if that.  At some point I’ll figure this human v human military thing out.  


Clear out the message icons, archer in Blue-Ringed Octopus takes out the barbarian scout.  Archer from Irukandji continues making its way up the western bank of the river.  I move the wounded horseman into Irukandji to heal up.  The archer moves to the forested hill to the south – I’ll potshot the barbarians in the area (just a scout and a redlined swordsman) for the XP.  Builder in Mouse Spider stays put given the scout’s proximity.  The uninjured horseman moves next to Blue-Ringed Octopus – if Archduke advances to attack I’ll be able to return fire.  Moving the unit reveals the hetaroi on the plains SW of the coffee.  I assume the archers are behind it.  

Builder reaches Cassowary this turn.  I’ve got a hitch in my plan – I completely messed up on the Encampment because of the population limit.  That gets a /5.  I’m ten turns out from getting a 4th population at Cassowary.  Hmmmm….after some number crunching I come up with this:

- Stop working the 1/3 forest, start working the 2/0 grassland
- Cassowary then expands on Turn 77.
- Start builder, stop one turn short.  Build something else for two turns (~19 )
- Resume builder, chop, place Encampment
- New builder can either chop Encampment on Turn 80 to complete with some overflow or do 2 lumber mills, letting the the Encampment finish on either Turn 81 or 82 and saving the forest for a chop for something else or a lumbermill.  

Farming the grassland would expand the city in 5 turns BUT there’d be no builder for a chop to overflow into the Encampment.  Plan determined I make the citizen change at Cassowary and start the builder.

One other note in “the plan” - I’ll have enough for a crossbow upgrade on Turn 77.

[suboptimal]

Turn 71

Start off the turn with the dialog box showing that Drama & Poetry is completed.  Let’s clear out the box, check out the situation at Blue-Ringed Octopus and see what I’m in for (from a zoomed out view):



There’s a Great General back there – the visible archer doesn’t have its benefit but the other two units do.  There’s also one other unit, most likely an archer, just NE of the hetaroi.  I also know he’s got a third archer tucked up there as well.  Is this position defensible?  Maybe.  We shall see.  I’ll return to it in a bit.

First things first, swap policies as previously described – Ilkum for Caravansaries.  The net hit is only -1 since the redlined horseman up north died.  I leave Agoge in place as I can build an archer in 3 turns at Irukandji – I’ll do that and then make the switch to horsemen.  Another archer will be good to have if Archduke comes after the Campus or the capital.  Of course, the problem I have is that the hypaspist can be on the Campus district next turn.  I move the warrior way out west across a river, rest both of the builders and then ponder my situation at Irukandji and Blue-Ringed Octopus.

Blue-Ringed Octopus

My initial thought here is to move the horseman into the city, the archer in the city to one hex west and the other archer up next to the city.  This puts all three ranged attacks able to hit the eastern bank of the river and boost the city strength, just in case there is a battering ram coming.

Irukandji

The city is exposed for the time being – I have a redlined horseman, an archer and will have a spearman next turn.  Losing the campus will impact science but it is repairable for cheap (5 cost or so).  Losing the plantations will be the bigger blow as that will cripple my economy.  Unfortunately they are all on the same side of the river as Archduke.  The position of the Great General is also not an issue for Archduke – with four movement points it can move to the hypaspist’s current location next turn and cover all of his troops in its area of effect.

Mouse Spider

The city is defenseless, being on that side of the river and it will only have an archer for defense.  However, Archduke would be leaving a flank open if he heads for that city first.  That city will need to build walls as soon as the archer is complete.  If the barbarian scout leaves the area I’d be able to chop the forest I was going to lumber mill.  That would put 56 x 1.5 = 84 into the archer, leaving walls at 79/80.  Of course, that scout needs to move so I can move out next turn.  

Cassowary

The build that will be started while I wait to get an Encampment down will be walls.  I also move the swordsman back to the city for defense.  If there’s a breakthrough at Blue-Ringed Octopus I’ll need whatever I can muster.

After pondering some more and staring blankly at the screen, I decide to do the following:

- Forces at Blue-Ringed Octopus rearrange as described.  
- Archer at Irukandji moves to incomplete Commercial Hub.  From there it will be able to fire at the Campus and be able to reach three of the citrus plantations.



My only hope here is to survive any pillaging and kill whatever units I can.  

I will admit to this being a bit frustrating, and all from shooting myself in the foot (repeatedly).  I’ve had what I think was a very strong start turn into near mortal peril because of my inexperience and ineptitude with human v human military strategy (more the latter than the former, imho).  I’ve lost half my military without inflicting a single casualty.  Timidity?  Idiocy?  Lack of understanding combat mechanics?  All of the above?  At some point I’ll figure this out.   Granted, I was expecting to be in this position at some point in the game, so at least that part of it went to plan. 

[shallow_thought]

I like the good humour and cheer. Keep it up!

[suboptimal]

I like the good humour and cheer. Keep it up!

Thanks!  Trying to keep up the good cheer though I suspect this one is going to go down in flames.  Leave it up to me to wreck the start.

Next time I sign up for a PBEM I think I'll try to recruit a dedlurker as a military advisor, or at a minimum, to save my military from its operator.   

[suboptimal]

Turn 72

So, let’s see how Archduke has advanced and how much closer my imminent decline is….



The good news is that he’s bypassing Blue-Ringed Octopus and Irukandji with his more powerful units.  The bad news is that he’s in my citrus plantations and will be able to take Mouse Spider relatively quickly.  This also means that he’s bringing in more troops and waiting for a battering ram to get there.  OK...let’s handle stuff not in this theater then come back to it and see what can be done.  

Going back to my T70 interlude it’s time to stop Machinery and start Construction.  Done.  

Swordsman at Cassowary moves back to the city center and will heal there.  

Warrior by Persia continues advancing around the shoreline.  I have a feeling I’ll get boxed in by borders there and have to turn around.

Irukandji’s spearman is complete.  I start an archer.  

Everyone at Blue-Ringed Octopus hangs tight and fortifies (except for the horseman).  The city has grown a population and the new pop is working the jade.  The archer in this city will finish the same time as Construction.  Going to modify my plan slightly so that this archer will definitely finish on Turn 76.  That means pushing Machinery back to Turn 77 or perhaps 78, which keeps the Encampment cost at Cassowary down a little bit. 

Back to the main front.  A close-up, if you will, then some discussion.  



OK.  There is no Great General in the area – both units are supporting each other, no other units around.  

Hypaspist: Has the Battlecry promotion (no CS bonus vs ranged attacks), +3 support from Hetairoi, +4 from Oligarchy.  It’s CS 40 on defense against the archer, 40 on defense against the city and would be 43 on defense if my injured horseman comes crosses the river and attacks (48 if attacking across the river).

Hetairoi: Yes, I’ve been spelling this unit wrong all game but NO MORE!    This unit has between 50 and 60 damage remaining (-4 to combat strength) and is CS 39 against the archer (Barding) and would be CS 43 against the wounded horseman, which can’t get there this turn.  If I have the movement rules right it can’t reach the forested hill W of Mouse Spider, as that’s 1 MP to move to the Commercial Hub tile, 3 MP to cross the river and 3 MP to move into the forested hill.  

The Barbarian Scout: has 50-60 damage left.  I also can’t get to it with any of my existing units this turn.

Mouse Spider: Defensive value of 26.  If attacked by just those two units the city would take a few turns to fall.  Chances are that Archduke is looking to cripple my economy here.  Of course, my unit maintenance is 3 and I’m getting 12 per turn from other-than-plantation sources so while it would slow down my upgrade(s) it won't stop me completely.

Mouse Spider’s Builder: If I cross the river to the forested hill neither of Archduke’s units can take the builder.  As outlined last turn the archer will be at 55/60 after this turn.  Harvesting a forest into the archer with Agoge active is 84 production.  That would have the walls finish on T74 with 3 or 4 overflow for...something else.  The question becomes whether or not the barbarian scout will take the builder.  

Irukandji’s Horseman: Can cross the river and attack the hypaspist this turn with CS 31.  It has 53 damage left.

Assuming expected damage values I can attack city → archer → horseman and do ~68 damage to the hypaspist, though I’d most certainly lose the horseman next turn.  The upside is that if the horseman is attacked by the hypaspist it remains within range of my archer and the city center.  

The other alternative is to just attack with the archer and city.  This does ~45 damage to the hypaspist, which would be vulnerable to a repeat attack if Archduke pillages.  I would then move the horseman to the hill across the river from the hypaspist and next to the scout – if it attacked the worker I’d be able to reclaim my worker.

I like this option as it preserves the horseman for later use, almost ensures I get to keep my builder and gives me a good chance at holding onto Mouse Spider by letting me build the walls.  The city can build another builder in order to perform repairs once I clear out the Macedonian threat and then mine the hill I just chopped to regain lost production (and the eureka for Apprenticeship).   Is this another case of my lack of experience (or sheer idiocy)?  Dunno.  Gonna find out the hard way .

I start the hoedown by moving the horseman.  That done I punch some numbers into the spreadsheet to calculate damage – with the expected damage the firing order in this case doesn’t matter.  Heads I shoot, tails I shoot, honor goes to the city.  15 points.  I then realize the horseman should have stayed put until after I fired as the city strength dropped to 33 when it left.  /5 and a for that one.  That cost me a full ten points of damage.  Archer shoots, does another 15 damage and earns a promotion.  

Builder moves out to the forested hill and now I wait.

When I click end turn I see the trader move back towards Cassowary – looks like in a turn or two I’ll be able to select a new trade route.  That might help the food situation at Cassowary.

[suboptimal]

Cassowary Review

After reviewing the chop yields and district cost increases here’s what I’ve come up with for Cassowary:

- The builder will need to be paused for Turn 76. That will let me put ~9 into something.
- On Turn 77 the city grows and citizens are reassigned to max out production. That will increase the city's base production from 9 to 15.
- Finishing Construction & Machinery increases the Encampment cost from 151 → 160 → 165. Forest harvests go 56 → 59 → 61.
- Chopping after both techs gets me 79.3 + 61 into a 165 cost district, with ~60 from the city while the builder moves. That’s ~35 overflow minus whatever goes into completing the builder.
- Chopping and placing before both techs and doing the second chop after both techs gets me 72.8 + 61 into a 151 cost district with ~60 from the city. That’s ~42 overflow minus whatever goes into completing the builder.
- Encampment completes on Turn 80. Builder’s two remaining charges go towards riverside lumber mills, one each on Turn 82 and 84.

The question now is whether I put Turn 76’s production into walls or a horseman. Either way the build completes on Turn 82.

[suboptimal]

Turn 73

Let’s see if Archduke pillaged where he was or if he moved around a bit instead.  I’m also on Ram Watch.



Welp, he’s brought in two more hypaspists and Boudica and attacked the archer on the hill.  The barbarian scout moved away from the builder as well.  As with last turn I’ll take care of the other areas first (as well as Mouse Spider) then evaluate my situation.

Off in Persia the warrior advances one more hex (forests are slow going) and confirms that I’ll be boxed in along the coast.  With a mountain in the way I’ll need to go all the way back around Aladdin to continue scouting.

Back as Mouse Spider the archer is at 55/60 as expected.  Builder harvests forest for 56 , overflow to the walls and they’ll be done next turn.  That might put a crimp in Archduke's plans.  Might being the operative word.

Now for the situation at Irukandji.  With the general around making any sort of melee attack is rather pointless – the hypaspists are all in the high 40’s for combat strength and the one across the river, if attacked, would be at 52.  Without any archer support the horseman is “sort of safe” on my side of the river.  The spearman, though, would be toast because of the melee bonus vs. anti-cavalray.  I also need to protect the archer.  Something is going to wind up dead regardless of what I try.  However, let’s see what sort of damage I can inflict….

- the spearman moves to the hilled woods SE of Irukandji.  This is a support move.
- the horseman moves into Irukandji and still has two movement points left.
- Irukandji fires at the wounded hypaspist, doing 13 points of damage.
- the archer moves into Irukandji, swapping places with the horseman
- the archer then fires at the wounded hypaspist, doing another...10 points of damage.

But wait, there’s more!  That archer I chopped out in Mouse Spider is brandy new and can fire.  It does an additional 17 points of damage, leaving the hypaspist under 20.  

The hypaspist is under 40 points of damage at present.  At some point I’d like to get that archer promoted but that would take away a ranged attack for a turn.  However, the bonus to strength would help with this situation.  I’ve also got four turns until I can upgrade an archer to a crossbow.  The horseman might survive two attacks – it’ll be strength 40 on any attack across the river (31 base, +5 river defense, +4 for supporting units).  Better yet, it would receive a promotion and healing after just one.  That should keep the redlined hypaspist from coming across the river.

Backtracking to my prior ponderings about Cassowary, I think that producing swordsmen would be a better use of than horsemen, only because at some point I'd want to be upgrading them to muskets.  There'd be enough production at Cassowary where not having Agoge active wouldn't be too much of a handicap, leaving Irukandji to produce horsemen with Maneuver slotted.

[suboptimal]

Turn 74

RamWatch continues.



Archduke took Mouse Spider!   Judging by unit placements it looks like he’s brought down more troops along the eastern side of the mountain range.  And I was one turn away from walls...

Looks like retaking Mouse Spider will be first on the agenda once I can get the current situation under control.  The good news is that Mouse Spider didn’t have any strategic resources.  The bad news is that it had three of my plantations, so that’s 6 and 3 less per turn.  Counting the the city was generating I’ve lost about 1/3 of my per turn.

Archer and Irukandji take potshots at the nearest hypaspist.  I’ve also got another decision to make here – send the spearman across the river to protect the Campus or stay put and support the horseman?  Given that the horseman is fortified and gets the +3 for that I’ll send the spearman across the river, just in case his hetairoi decides to come pillage.  

I hit end turn and see a trading post notification pop up before the screen changes to the next player.  Having looked at my trade route availability before the end of the turn I’ve got the following options:

- Cassowary to Valetta: 1 6
- Cassowary to Grenada: 1 3 (it'll be 4 with new the trading post)
- Cassowary to Irukandji: 2 1     
- Cassowary to Blue-Ringed Octopus: 1 1

Regarding a crossbow upgrade, that’s still 4 turns out.  If I take the Valetta route I’ll be up to my prior generation (~17/turn) and the upgrade stays on schedule; however, that goes right past the barbarian camp.  Going to Grenada gives me a shorter route but delays upgrading by a turn (rate is only 15/turn).  I'll need to see what the situation is when I get the next turn and decide.  If I send the trader to Valetta I'll need to send the swordsman out as an escort.  However, that will also let me clear up the camp for a bit more .

As for the available archer promotion, I think for the best approach is to take the Garrison promotion for the +10 CS now and then upgrade that unit to a crossbow once the is in.  That’ll give me a CS 50 unit to shoot at the invaders.  The new archer can move to cover the horseman (if it's still there).