[SPOILERS] Cornflakes PB50 - Social distancing on a tiny island

[Cornflakes]

The stack of praetorians disappeared. I upgraded the CG3 Bowman to a longbow anyway. I’m also continuing to build longbows and will get at least one each from the capital and Currency. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, after all.

[Cornflakes]

It's hard to keep up reporting on two game simultaneously   But I've just completed what I believe was a productive Golden Age #1. My rivals have been warring among themselves (mostly unsuccessfully) allowing me to develop what appears to be a winning lead ... now I have to clench the victory that appear to be within grasp  The last 10 turns can be summarized in a single screenshot:

   

Superdeath is on his way out, but not quite as I expected. Egypt actually captured the first city in the game. The first Roman stack (without catapults) swung, struck out, and got destroyed. The 2nd Roman stack is somewhere on or near the highlighted tile. A couple turns ago I saw something like 8 Praets and a cat + spear + chariot advancing. I suspect the galley shuttled in another cat or two to help. But at this point Superdeath is walking dead.

I completed a late Oracle and took Feudalism, just in time to get Longbows online for deterrence. My GScientist was birth about 5 turns later after Scooter had committed his stack to attacking America. I therefore decided to drop Slavery and push out some great people using the Serfdom unlimited scientists/artists/merchant ability of this mod. I birthed 2 GScientists, one off the top of the event log. Both are currently sitting in Alas Babylon. One will be paired with the GMerchant coming out of Medicine (see bar at top of screenshot). The other will be held for a while to bulb Optics for Caravels. I have a 2nd GMerchant about 1/3 finished in Food which will be used to bulb Civil Service. Tech path:

Calendar (T102) > Code of Laws (T108) > Civil Service (approx T110 bulb)> Machinery (T120) > Optics (T120 bulb). 

Victory plan is Maces + cats delivered via Navigation galleys, using Caravels to defend and pillage/blockade coast. I have 50% of world pop currently and I will whip everything into the ground once I reach the tech goals.

   

[Cornflakes]

GMerchant for the 2nd GA was born last turn. I got spooked by a Roman Crossbow and triggered the GA to swap back to Slavery. I'll miss out on the +100% GPP towards my next merchant for the planned Civil Service bulb, but with +150% from PHI the loss isn't as noticeable. When America gets eliminated and the Roman and Egyptian generals start eyeing their next targets I don't want to display weakness. I whipped 3 longbows to immediately boost the power graphs, I'll complete a Catapult next turn, and whip another the following turn. GA also speeds up Alas Babylon's Forge, and I'll use the GA production to get a couple defensive triremes out so Rome can't out-flank by sea with amphibious crossbows.

[Cornflakes]

Power graph has updated and shows that I got spooked unnecessarily. Rome apparently had another unsuccessful attack on the American capitol  somehow Superdeath is putting up a valiant resistance. Despite his capitol being something like size 3 or less for the last 20 turns. I’m now top power with 6 longbows and a sword.

[Cornflakes]

I decided to make a high risk / high reward play:

   

Scooter has been tempting me with a single unpromoted archer guarding Pyramids + Colossus. Examining the resources at my disposal I decided to call Scooter's bluff. To attack I have 5 Guerrilla II longbows and 1 Bowman over the hills, and by sea I have 1 CR2 sword and 1 CR2 axe delivered via Nav2 galley (coin-flip whether I can get to the city or scooter has a trireme to block).

I aim to keep assuming my first couple of attacks get hits and I have a few longbows survive. Scooter just completed a settler but even if he doesn't have any emergency hammers invested he has enough pop to dry whip a crossbow or Praet. Worst case I don't think Scooter can save the city and I burn it. But Pyramids (Police State, with a free GA civics swap) and Colossus will provide the winning advantage if I get some good dice rolls and am able to keep.

[El Grillo]

[Cornflakes]

   

Here's the power graph. After getting spooked into Slavery by Scooter, I started thinking about how I might make the most out of the GA. That's when I noticed that the archer on defense at Joe Exotic was not the CG3 starting archer, but an unpromoted one. I get 11% odds with a longbow. That's enough to reliably take out with 3 attackers. And I can bring 8 units to bear. I've been crossing my fingers that Scooter wouldn't complete another Crossbow or Praet at the last minute allowing him to dry whip a 3rd defender on the turn I move in. We shall see. Maybe Scooter has a loaded galley or a couple chariots in range to stuff the defenses. 

This is by no means a sure victory since a dry-whipped crossbow on hill behind 60% culture defenses will be a tough defender. Hard as it will be to press the button, I'm expecting to have to raze.

[sunrise089]

[Cornflakes]

Success!

   

Not game winning since scooter assembled enough to force the raze, but knocks one of the two remaining rivals out. I don't think that Scooter has enough current power or remaining production potential to retaliate. Sequence of attacks (Scooter 1-turned a crossbow after the settler):

Longbow vs unpromoted crossbow 2% ... LAWLESS LOSS
Longbow (upgraded bow) vs crossbow 2% ... LOSS, but crossbow down to 4.5/6
Longbow vs archer 11% ... LOSS, but archer down to 1.1-ish 
Longbow vs damaged crossbow 30% ... WIN!!!! 
Bowman vs damaged archer 68% ... WIN!

One longbow in reserve and both units on ship in reserve. The crossbow even at 4.5 rendered the melee on ship worthless so I made all the attacks with guerrillas across the hills. I think the dice rolls were slightly in my favor but I had enough of a reserve to clean up a couple bad rolls.

   

Scooter has no Iron now which means no crossbows or Praets. Now to scheme up an EvilPlot™ to knock Egypt out 

   

Post-GA demographics. With only three of us left, Egypt is rival best in all categories and scooter is rival worst after losing his capital. I've had research visibility on Egypt for most of the game. He has Construction, just hit Metal Casting last turn, and is now saving gold on HBR. I have not seen Monarchy (or Feudalism) yet so his best units are archers/swords/War Chariots.

I'm 6 turns from Machinery with unlocks Crossbows, which give collateral damage off of ships in this mod. I'll build a couple more land units for defensive purposes, and then start cranking out triremes to rule the seas. Then I can pirate raid the Egyptian coast hitting weaknesses.

[Cornflakes]

This turn may have decided the fate of the game. Yuri’s sent a desperation attack. Last turn I was confident that I could defeat it, so I set things up hiding a good portion of my power out of sight behind the city.

   

First a shot of Yuri’s stack: 5 Catapults, 5 War Chariots, and 4 axes. Add to this a couple Roman Praets (which moving later in turn order after Egyptian collateral could have participated) and it is non-trivial threat. However the Romans decided not to participate. Notice in the Egyptian stack that the highest strength unit is just 5, meaning Catapults will be top defenders if I hit the rest with collateral (in my sim they were top defenders overall, even without hitting with my catapults). If I can knock out the catapults then this attack entirely loses its teeth. 

My plan is to attack out with my longbows (?) and kill the catapults. I’ll be able to stuff in more defenders than attackers anyway so I don’t think it’s possible for me to lose this (famous last words). With the Egyptian military annihilated, and my production base larger, I think it will just be a matter of building up for the kill. If I hold the line here there’s no way they can build up a stack larger than me.

With this in mind, and confident that I have enough forces to hold, I made the decision to hide a good portion of my forces behind the city out of sight so as not to scare off the Egyptians. Egypt doesn’t have a sentry WC and the stack isn’t glowing ... is it possible that Egypt hasn’t built any Barracks? I didn’t fog gaze for building graphics.

   

Here we go  the Egyptian catapults are showing top defender for for my C2 longbow, but War Chariot is top defender to the D2 longbows (which are upgraded Bowmen):

C2 Longbow vs. Catapult 91% ... WIN! (2 hits)
Unpromoted Longbow vs. Catapult 78% ... LOSS (redlined, 1 hit short )
G2 Longbow vs. Catapult 78% ... LOSS (redlined, 1 hit short )
C2 Axe vs. Catapult 73% ... WIN! (down to 50%)
C2 Axe vs. Catapult 73% ... LOSS (redlined, 1 hit short three times now, all at decently positive odds!!!)

   

Time to send in my 2 catapults and see if the Egyptian stack is weakened enough for me to pick it apart ...

Catapult vs. War Chariot 63% ... WITHDRAW! (6 collateral!!)
Catapult vs. War Chariot 63% ... LOSS (6 collateral!!)

   

Nicely done Cats! It doesn't look like any of the egyptian catapults soaked up any of my collateral hits now to pick off what I can 

C1/D2 Longbow vs. 4.5/5 Axe 98% ... FLAWLESS WIN! GGeneral born! ... on an island
D2 Longbow vs. 4.3/5 Axe 95% ... WIN (1 hit)
Unpromoted Axe vs. 3.7/5 War Chariot 87% ... WIN (2 hits)
CG1 Longbow vs. 3.7/5 Axe ... WIN (2 hits)
C1/D2/Formation Bowman vs. 3.7/5 War Chariot 92% ... FLAWLESS WIN
C1/D2/Formation Bowman vs. 3.7/5 War Chariot 92% ... WIN (2 hits)

I have 2 spears left to attack but there is another 3.7/5 axe which gives me only 20% odds so I decide to stop here.

   

   

The YELLOW BOX highlights a heroic G2/D2/Shock Longbow which won the 30% attack vs. the crossbow in Scooter's capital, and successfully withdrew. Scooter pushed a stack up towards Currency. I had another G2 longbow stacked together on the hill 1SE of Currency, but I withdrew the 2nd last turn when Egypt advanced. That heroic longbow did it's duty though and took enough Praets with it to neuter that attack. Some pillaging is about the only damage that Rome can do to me now. Egypt can't have much military left. I'm putting all my production now into military and I'll go for the kill before Egypt can rebuild.