[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

If you think it is the best move, I am willing to go for it. I just first need to hear what specific things could happen on TAD's t129, my t130, and TAD's t130 such that we would then be favored to come out ahead over the rest of the engagement. Right now it seems like TAD will get in more hits per turn than me due to being able to partially surround my position in the bay in addition to getting the first strike and having more ships, and while I do have a CS advantage I am not sure that's enough to compensate. My assessment is that I will probably lose 4-5 ships from the first strike, kill only 3-4 ships on my t120 because I will have fewer attacks per turn due to the partial envelopment and the ironclad blocking my caravels, and then lose another 4-5 on TAD's t120. I will then have just 5-7 ships here compared to TAD's ~12, which does not sound like the opening of a successful engagement.

Don't forget that as soon as we enter battle with TAD, he will have my navy pinned down and will send his southern fleet up north at its best rate to go for the full surround on my fleet. Whatever caravels and frigates he has down there will be moving at speed 7 and will take only 2-3 turns to arrive, fast enough to impact the course of the battle. We would need to destroy TAD's northern fleet before we get surrounded on TAD's t122 or find some way to prevent the surround, and right now I don't think either of those things are very likely. But you will have caravels in a few turns and can upgrade a bunch of them with pillage gold, which would give us the option to cut off the southern fleet if he tries that, and if the battle takes place up by Runic and Cuneiform, the distances involved would make a full surround less practical anyways.

[Woden]

One of the reasons people lose wars is that they are too conservative, always looking for the "best" moves and the "best" positions, sitting on their units until it is too late. We don't have a "best" move here, but you need to do something and can make something happen. If you leave TAD to take your northern island city, your capital is toast. If you leave your navy where it is, your capital is toast.

TAD has a split navy, so you are NOT outnumbered. You probably have more ships than him when comparing only his northern fleet. Sail your boats up to at least the straight line (east-west) between the small and you empire. That will limit what he can through at you. And if you are worried about you navy pinned down, that is why you head north. It will be 3 turns before his southern fleet can catch up. You will not lose 4 to 5 ships, only 2 or 3. It will take at least 4 attacks to kill one of your ships and there is just not the space for it in that area. He will have 7, maybe 8, attacks.

[ljubljana]

I am not as confident as you are that TAD's fleet is meaningfully split. We have only seen two frigates and some galleys in the south. I think it is very possible that there are only two frigates and some galleys down south, and all the rest of his money went towards caravels and frigates in the north. That is what I would do, and I can't think of any reason for TAD to play differently - as you said, splitting his fleet would be a huge mistake in the leadup to a game-defining attack like this one. I suspect that all the TAD ships besides the two southern frigates and galleys that we have actually visually confirmed are up north, which would be 10ish caravels and 6-8 frigates plus the ironclad. I'm still not too badly outnumbered in that case, but I will be after eating the first strike.

I also don't see why my capital is toast if I lose Runic. I don't think TAD would even go for Cuneiform after that - why bother when all it would do is immediately flip back? The only reason it would hurt me at all to temporarily take the capital is because I would lose trade routes from the GP disappearing and the CS bonus from the IA spy, but I doubt TAD is thinking about that. If TAD wants to hold my territory, he should take Runic, then raze a few of my mainland cities that he can't hold for loyalty reasons, then take the capital, and that is what I think his plan probably is. If we let TAD start to attack Runic, I can sail up my fleet right behind him as he does, and engage either when he is in the process of taking Runic or when he is sieging down the whatever his next target is. That would add the city defenses to our side for the battle, as well as something like 4 more ships that I will produce and upgrade over the next few turns, as well as preventing us from getting surrounded as easily as we can in the bay.

As for getting surrounded in the Alboran Sea, the problem is that I won't be able to head any further north after this turn because I will have to fight through TAD's navy to do so. On his turn, TAD will move ships to cut me off from the north and west such that I can't escape the Alboran Sea in either direction until I kill his ships. It will take at least 3 turns to do that, if I even am able to do so, and by the time I can get north of there, whatever southern ships TAD has will have arrived to trap me. I think I am almost certain to be surrounded in 3 turns with this plan unless I am very wrong about how many ships TAD has in the area.

All of that said, you seem pretty confident that this is the right turn to engage TAD. I have never fought a naval war with frigates and caravels before and you have, so while I am really skeptical of this move, I am willing to defer to your tactical decision-making here if you think it is better than those other options. Not listening to you is a large part of the reason I am in this mess in the first place, and I am not about to blow this game by continuing to do so .

[Woden]

Your capital is toast because you will be behind by a turn of movement. He takes Runic next turn and sails whatever he didn't move towards your capital. Then he take your capital while you are trying to catch up. He won't hold your capital but takes out your most productive city.

With the amount boats we have seen over the last 10 turns in the south, no reason to suspect he doesn't have a significant naval force down there. Also, counting TAD's cities, I don't think there is more than 1 or 2 unaccounted for in the hidden bay, which would mean his ship production is better in the south.

[ljubljana]

I don't think he'll be able to take my capital in just one turn, especially if he's just using leftover ships from the Runic attack. If the capital holds him off for one turn, I can use that turn to close with him and engage his ships as he is trying to take the capital. Then TAD has to choose between finishing the capital off and fighting me, and if he chooses to fight me then the capital's walls and frigate get to contribute to the attack. I honestly don't even think he will take Runic in just one turn since he can only reach it with one melee ship, and if so I can use next turn to catch up. I think engaging him either at Runic or at the capital will give us better odds than engaging in the bay where I can easily be surrounded and will lose the first strike.

We have only seen weak boats in the south, though, other than the two frigates. I think the reason to suspect that there is not a significant naval force down there is because it would be really dumb for TAD to leave a significant force down there when the outcome of the game hinges on his northern attack. TAD is not really dumb, so I don't think he did that. Ship production also barely matters in terms of where he is able to mass forces IMO because all he has to do is make cheap galleys and quads and then upgrade them, and any two or three decently-developed cities can do that.

Anyways, TAD is griefing in the tech thread, so if you want me to defer to you and go to the Alboran Sea, just say the word and I will do so. Sorry I have been so hard to deal with about this, I am worried that taking this engagement is the mistake that TAD has been waiting for us to make but that is probably because I am really inexperienced with naval war and have no idea what I'm doing

[Woden]

Anyways, TAD is griefing in the tech thread, so if you want me to defer to you and go to the Alboran Sea, just say the word and I will do so. Sorry I have been so hard to deal with about this, I am worried that taking this engagement is the mistake that TAD has been waiting for us to make but that is probably because I am really inexperienced with naval war and have no idea what I'm doing

I sure TAD just wants to turn to come. Wars make you that way and it is frustrating when people hold the turn too long. I think TAD is making the mistake here and we need to jump on it. Do what you want, I have said my peace. Whatever you do will either work or be a learning experience.

[Woden]

As for TAD southern fleet, I think I am going to keep most of my pillage gold and finish Cartography in 2 turns. Then upgrade as many caravels as I can and then hit him from behind if he moves on WotW. Another reason to bring your fleet north, draw his southern fleet out.

I will send you 8 niter next turn and whatever gold you need to upgrade a ship or 2. I will then need some niter back in a few turns to upgrade a Frigate of my own. I think I should be able to upgrade 8 caravels in 2 turns and then a few more the turn after plus a frigate. If TAD sails to WotW, I should be able to hit his frigates from behind.

[ljubljana]

Okay, well, I have to go get groceries for my house as part of our COVID chore rotation but I will play the turn after that. If it's my decision, I am still not sure what I'm going to do. How many caravels do you think you will have in 2 turns, and how far away from the front will they be? I think the fact that you are so close to Cartography may actually be an argument for waiting a turn - if I engage TAD starting the turn after this one, and TAD's southern fleet sails up on a 4t journey to trap me, but you get caravels in 2 turns, you will be able to cut them off and that could be a nasty surprise for TAD. If I engage him this turn and the journey for the southern fleet is only 3t, you may not get caravels there quickly enough for that.

[Woden]

I can get probably 10-12 caravels over the next 4 turns and at least 1 frigate. I can attack in 4 or 5 turns when I get the Oligarchy legacy card in play. We want his southern fleet to sail north to chase you. Then I can hit him from behind, where his frigates will be. No way I can cut him off and and face a front of caravels, supported by frigates. I won't have support fire from frigates of my own. In that scenario, he will have at least an even combat advantage, if not better with his Admiral and +3 CS bonus plus maybe Printing and a Military Alliance. I can't hit him head on for the same reason you should and we need him drawn out, chasing you.

[Woden]

Here is how I expect the next 5 turns to go if you follow my plan.
1. You move your navy up to engage TAD's northern fleet. I assume the northern fleet is made up of more frigates than caravels since he has his ironclad and I saw a bunch of galleys in the south 5 turns ago.
2. On his turn, he will strike you, killing 2 maybe 3 ships.
3. You eat through his frigates because you have a massive CS advantage and they defend at 48, 53 if in range of the Admiral.
4. He moves his southern fleet up to WotW, leaves his frigates to take the city and sails his caravels north to engage your fleet.
5. You finish off his frigates.
6. I upgrade a bunch of caravels and sail towards WotW.
7. He captures WotW with a lone caravel he keep back to take the city.
8. I smash his Frigates because he left then somewhat in the open.
9. We pinch his remaining fleet north of WotW and destroy it.

Probably a pipe dream but does seem somewhat reasonable.