Gobble, gobble, comrades - Sultan Chev steers Turkey

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I have no plans.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

More seriously, though, I hate this stupid country. Give me Italy over Turkey.

The fundamental problem with Turkey is that it is locked in a box and all its neighbors hate it. Consider the map: 



Really, Turkey should start with a fleet in Smyrna, then it'd be quite strong. Instead, the only way to get your starting units out is via Constantinople - the fleet is in a cul de sac in the Black Sea, the land units stuck in Anatolia otherwise. 

Anyway, that means you have only two options, really, to open as Turkey:
1)Army Con -> Bulgaria. This is ordered every single time, without exception. There's just no sane alternative at all. That leaves:

2)Fleet Ank -> BLA, Army Smy -> Arm. A strong attack on Russia - you either claim the Black Sea or at the very least deny it to Russia, and your army in Armenia is very threatening to Sevastopol and makes Russia's attack on Rumania very uncertain. 
2b)Fleet Ank -> Con, Army Smy H. Violently pro-Russian, you cede any contest over the Black Sea and instead make full speed for the Mediterranean. This screams to the rest of the board that you are engaged in a Juggernaut alliance, the union of Russia and Turkey rolling west all-but-unstoppably across the board. Note that you can't even use one of your starting units in this opening, though, and it has poor support for Bulgaria. 

Notice, also, that you are committed to one major decision in the opening rounds: do you attack Russia, or ally with him?  Answering that question depends not so much on strategy as on diplomacy.

The advantage of an attack on Russia is that it lets you use most of your opening units, and removes the single biggest threat to your safety on the board - the center of Sevastopol and the key to Turkey's back door, the Black Sea. You can hope to reach Warsaw Moscow at least, and then you're positioned to (perhaps) push into the Balkans in strength. The downside is that you require Austrian cooperation, and he's not likely to be interested, Italy is going to fight one of you unless you can somehow talk him into lunging at France for some reason, and England really needs to pressure Russia in the north to take some heat off you, but if he does anything at all he'll inevitably lock up the Norway-St. Petersburg stalemate line, which is completely impenetrable from the south, and that stops you cold. 

The Juggernaut offers more prospects of success - your northern flank secure, you can throw fleets into the Med and steam across Italy and Austria, who have tough-to-defend frontiers. The downside is that Russia almost always does better, with the rich Balkan, German, and Scandinavian centers sparkling before him, while you're trapped in the narrow waters of the Aegean. The rest of the board will (if they're paying attention) react violently against you and throw everything they can to stop you. And Russia perpetually has a dagger at your back - wait for you to have a season with no build, drop a fleet in Sevastopol, seize the Black Sea in the spring, and good night Irene. He's also got the one fleet already there, a massive headache - it needs to be destroyed or gently shepherded into the Mediterranean, which is tough to arrange. 

So Russia MIGHT ally with you, if he thinks it's safe to. Italy hates your guts, long-term - the Mediterranean ain't big enough for the two of us. Ditto Austria - any TUrkish expansion whether north or west presents a long parade of units marching past his vulnerable Balkan heartland, and fundamentally neither power can hope to win without the other fellow's centers. So 2/3 neighors would love to see you dead and if the third allies with you the rest of the board will try to murder you straight away. Lovely. 

The only way out of the dilemma, as I see it, is the above order. A standoff in the Black Sea both shields us from Russian aggression, sets up an attack if we can talk Austria into it, and throws a bit of a smoke cloud into the "Are Turkey and Russia allied" question. You can protest loudly in press about the other dude being a snake in the grass, how dare he move into the BLack Sea, etc, and do your best to gum up the works of any anti-Juggernaut alliance. The army holding in Smy is a bit of a giveaway, but you can make excuses or even misorder it. That lets you attempt the Juggernaut - there's just no future in attacking Russia, not right away - while hopefully keeping Italy and Austria divided between each other and the western powers napping. At any rate, that's what I'm going to try to do.

But seriously, I hate Turkey. At least Italy has options and Austria is exciting. Turkey is just being locked in a box and slowly smothered.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

So far, Nauf's Austria seems keen to concentrate on Russia, promising support to Rumania in exchange for a move to Armenia. Scooter, as I expected, largely reads the board the same way I do and is open to a Juggernaut, knowing it benefits him more than me. Italy & France have communicated little, England is very closed about his plans (if he were planning a full invasion of Scandinavia I'd expect he'd do more to get me on board, so probably not there). Germany is negotiating.

So, I read the board as Italy either in talks with Austria about a Lepanto - should see a bounce in Trieste no matter what in the spring - or just isn't talking to anyone, which is no good if you're Italy. Austria is either sincere or lying and wanting to draw me out of position while he and Russia cooperate to attack me, but if I move against him that shouldn't matter, since I THINK I'm a better partner for Scooter than Nauf is, and so hopefully Scooter picks me to side with. 

I always struggle to commit in the opening moves, because I hate starting wars of aggression, but that's the game. I'm still leaning towards Juggernaut as the highest possible Turkish ceiling, while trying to stir up England against Scooter in the north so he's bogged down a bit and I try to find an opportunity to equalize down the line.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Spring 1901 moves are in. Very little is revealed, but that's always the case. 

The west:


England's opening is almost violently pro-French. North Sea is obvious and must be occupied by SOME English unit in the spring, the question is which one? If you use the Edinburgh fleet, then the London fleet can cover the English Channel, which absolutely must be kept at least empty if not under English occupation. However, if you go south like that, you risk getting no builds at all if Russia moves north in the spring, since you'll be unable to assure yourself of Norway. SO, it's also common to place Edinburgh in the Norwegian Sea and London in the North Sea, enabling a supported attack on Norway in the spring if necessary. BUT in that instance you have nothing covering your south, so the most flexible opening sees you move your Liverpool army to York, where you can either convoy it to Norway for operations in the north or move south to cover London if France has betrayed you and taken the Channel. So, moving the army to EDINBURGH instead is fiercely pro-French - the English player was absolutely convinced he'd have no need to cover the Channel. Now he can convoy using the NORWEGIAN fleet, while the North Sea bounces Holland to keep Germany in line. 

France cooperates, too. The fleet in Brest steams for Portugal in the fall via the Mid-Atlantic, while the army in Paris safely moves to take Belgium uncontested. Meanwhile, Marseilles' army covers his eastern flank with a bounce in Burgundy, which COULD be a German invasion attempt or it could have been pre-arranged to keep both powers safe. France is happier with that than Germany is, though, as now he can safely drop back into Spain in the fall and net a clean 3 centers and there's not a damned thing anyone can do about it.

Germany should be hammering the panic button about now. He'll get Denmark, but that's about it - Holland depends on English goodwill, which means England willing to fight France, and, well, -gestures at Edinburgh- . So that's probably not happening. The army in Munich can presently do shit all - he'll be able to take Burgundy in the spring, but whoop-de-doo, France will drop armies in Paris and possibly Marseilles (possibly a fleet), cover Gascony and Picardy easily, and drive Germany back over the Rhine without a problem. Now Germany's got 4 units defending against potentially 10 enemies, so, yeah. Scooter absolutely needs to support him in the north, possibly even using his Swedish build. So that's bad news for me, since I want scooter to dismember Austria with me. 


In the east: 



As I said, no surprises. Italy sets up for a classical Lepanto in 1902 - he'll occupy Tunis in the fall by CONVOYING his army from Apulia, which is why it moved there, and build a fleet in Naples, then in spring 1902 his fleet in ION can slide into the Eastern Med, Naples fills in to ION, and now he can drop an army in my backyard in Syria uncontested. A fleet in Smyrna will stymie that nicely, I think. He also holds in Venice and gets bounced by Trieste, which he attempted to sell to me as "See? Austria and I definitely aren't allied!" C'mon. Was the Sultan born yesterday? (he was not). 
Austria does the classic Hedgehog defense - throwing out spikes in all directions. He makes sure to move to Galicia because if nothing else he can't have Russia moving there, and sure enough ti bounces, covering his north for the moment. He throws another unit into Venice just to make sure of Italy - if Italy had gone for an Austrian attack (moving his northern army into the Tyrol and following up with Rome to Venice), then the Venice move bounces the Roman army and leaves Italy awkwardly out on a limb in the fall. Finally Budapest moves into Serbia, where the interesting thing about the Hedgehog is that Greece is temptingly open - Serbia and I could both move there without consequence. I dangle a few lines to Austria to make it seem like I may commit against Russia, but I doubt nauf will buy it since I very obviously didn't move to Armenia, and why wouldn't I unless I wasn't planning on fighting Russia? 

Scooter mistakenly commits to the south, but it's not too big a deal. He can support himself into Rumania or Galicia now, and do so against only a single Austrian build no matter what (unless something wacky happens at Venice).  Those three units, possibly joined by another army, are probably all I'll have to count on since his Swedish build should almost certainly be a northern fleet to go deal with England. 

So, I shall order Bul -> Greece in the hopes of grabbing that, or at least denying it to Italy/Austria if they get greedy. Con -> Bul naturally follows. My fleet I'm torn on. Tactically the best move is Ank -> Con, which lets me get the fleet out into the Aegean in the spring (coupled with a fleet build in Smyrna and Italy is stopped cold, with no chance to build anything else unless he stabs Austria or France). I'll also have two armies ranged on Austria's southern border, while Russia SHOULD have one in Galicia and the ability to slide another into Rumania, tying up Austria's northern defenses. With the Austrian fleet unable to materially contribute except by defending Albania, that will enable us to grind him down. 

However, moving the fleet to Con screams to the world that the juggernaut is on...BUT considering the sitch in the West, that's not a bad thing. France/England are firmly committed to each other and we need to move fast before they smash through Germany and come storming into the Mediterranean and the East. Scooter also has enough headaches there that he doesn't need to worry about the Black Sea. Further, getting my fleet into the Med so quickly effectively renders Italy helpless, so he's a non-factor (well, until he convoys his army to Albania in the fall, that is). Plus some of the others suggest that they're not well-versed in Diplomacy theory (could be a smokescreen, though), so I may be able to get away with it and say I was afraid of Italy or something. 
Hell, I'll try it. 

Whole board view: 

[T-hawk]

Great writeup, this is wonderfully entertaining to read

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Thank you! I'll do my best to explain how I parse the board each round. The negotiations you can follow on Discord, but the central thrust is that scooter and I (assuming, of course, that scooter is telling me the truth) intend to try a Juggernaut alliance of RUssia/Turkey to sweep across the board. As I noted, he should go for this since it's more beneficial to Russia overall than Turkey, but I still gain by it since it's also better for me than any other Turkish strategy. 

I have outright lied to Nauf's Austria once, when I at last committed to "Rumania." I don't think he believes me, but the attempt needed to be made. I dislike lying - if players can't trust your words it becomes much more difficult to make mutually profitable arrangements, peace treaties, etc. Better to elide or avoid topics, if you can keep the other feller from noticing. However, nauf was insistent and pinned me down - which is good messaging on his part - and so I felt I had no choice. Turkey/Austria is typically to the death anyway, but I'll try to patch things up with nauf after this phase in case I need him down the line. 

Scooter has been feeding me information that nauf is also double-dealing, which is more or less expected but he seems convinced of Austria's sincerity, and frankly Austria can co-exist with Russia more easily than he can with Turkey - and if he's going to kill Turkey at all it has to be now, when Russia and Italy can outflank the Constantinople defenses, rather than trying to stab me later when he has no allies. So, scooter claims that Nauf is waffling between a move to Greece to attempt to deny me the build there, or the more sensible thrust straight at Bulgaria which certainly limits me to a single build this year (Bul -> Greece would go through but Con -> Bul would fail behind it as the two armies collided, leaving Bulgaria neutral). 

I've opted to trust scooter (gotta trust someone, if scooter is planning to attack me I'm dead regardless) and act as if this information was true. Initially I was going to send him this message, but decided there is every chance he's leaking my moves to Austria in an effort to slow me down a bit.

I'll stick with Serbia. If he moves to Con, I only get a build regardless of his move, and I intend to place a fleet in Smyrna no matter what. If he moves to Greece, I gain two builds. If he supports me to Rumania (!), then I lose nothing really.

So instead I'll post it here. 

As for the last nation that can affect me, Italy, I'll know his mind when I see his build. If a fleet in Naples, my fleet in Smyrna will immediately move south to cover the Eastern Med against any attempted invasion from the Ionian (actually I'll know what he plans earlier - if he convoys the army to Tunis, it's most likely because he wants to retain the fleet in Ion. He could be bold and go for Greece with the convoy, which isn't a bad move at all, but it's not guaranteed since both Turkey and Austria are eyeing it greedily and he has a good chance of ending up with no builds at all if he tries that. How bold is Cyneheard?). If anything else, I'll act as if Austria is his target and move my fleet to the Aegean instead, intended to support the seizure of Greece, which will enable me to deploy either a third army if we bog down in the Balkans or a third fleet for an Italian campaign.

[xist10]

Thanks for the post.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I've been waiting anxiously all morning for fall 1901 to resolve. Fall 1901 is in many ways the most crucial phase of the entire game of Diplomacy. Spring 1901 is pretty well established in theory - each country only has three units, which only have a few logical spaces to move to, so there's not a whole lot of information revealed. Fall, though, is both when countries begin to respond to each others' moves - Did France move to the English Channel? Did Russia try to occupy Galicia? etc - and it's when alliances first really have to commit, in most cases. Can't straddle the line anymore!

So, as the phase ticked over, I am most interested in three areas of the map:

I. England - Did England
a)Land an army in Norway (to attack Russia)?
b)Bounce Germany in Holland?
c)Bounce France in Belgium? 
(and did he use a fleet or army for the last two moves)?

II. Italy - Did Italy 
a)Set up for an attack on Turkey by convoying his army to Tunis?
b)Do literally anything else?

and most importantly:

III. Austria:
a)Move to Constantinple, as scooter says he might do?
b)Move to Greece?
c)Support me to Rumania - he was actually telling the truth?

So, phase resolved three minutes ago. Lemme go refresh:




In the north, things go basically ideally for a Russo-Turkish alliance, or at least as well as I have any right to expect. England occupies Norway with his FLEET, not an army, ruling out a land campaign against Russia in the north. He also allows France to take Belgium and bounces Germany in Holland, as expected. The army also marches to Yorkshire - not sure what that accomplished. It seems to indicate some waffling on England's part, since he could have just moved the bloody army there directly in spring if that was where he wanted it. By not convoying, though, he weakens his forces at the front, since now the army is stuck back there instead of on the ground ready to work with a fleet in 1902. 

Conclusions: England is committed to France and against Germany, as we predicted from his march to Edinburgh. He also may not be the most resolute or tactically adept player, though? Should see a fleet build in 1901. 

France gets the sweep, netting all three provinces I identified in the spring. I'd say he risks pissing off his neighbors by growing too large too quickly, except we already can see that England is fully in on the French alliance and would have seen the landgrab coming, Germany is already hostile and powerless, and Italy has just gone on attacking Austria (more on that in a moment). 

Germany moved to Ruhr instead of Burgundy, which gives him more influence over Holland in the spring...except France is also already in Belgium so he'll still probably bounce. It's a fair defensive move on the whole, and we'll see an army in Munich probably. Germany desperately needs Russian support on his flank, but unless he flips England there's no chance at all of offensive action against France.

In the center, Italy does NOT setup for the Lepanto, and instead executes the Austrian attack: A move into the Tyrol, with the army following into Venice to setup a joint attack on Trieste next phase, while he gives up control of the Ionian by moving to Tunis with his fleet instead of convoying. Ironically, said attack would have worked in the spring when Austria held in Trieste, but it failed this phase as Austria attacked Venice & so bounced the reinforcing army. Except Italy can just build an army there instead and have the same effect, which would be great for me since it's not a fleet. 

Austria bounced Scooter in Galicia, Scooter supported himself to Rumania as agreed, and moved to Greece. Russia's tipoff is gold here, as prior to scooter's messages I thought nauf was sincere about a Russian attack. I was too quiet for that to work, probably (I hate lying and so I message very little when I'm considering attack, a certain tell if you ever play against me!). Instead, though, I tiptoe around the army, capture two centers instead of one, and leave Austria badly compromised in his defense. 

Need to parse through hte diplomatic fallout over the next three days, but so far things went as well as I have any right to expect (probably TOO well, for Russia - I'd like him to stumble somewhat). France/England is a problem but Austria/Italy at each other's throats is great news.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Italy and England are baffling to me at the moment. I get Austria - Nauf wanted any friend he could get, since he's Austria, and thought scooter was the better bet, but scooter double-crossed him since I can offer a better deal. Nauf has been cheerful about it in the chat - kinna goes with the territory when you draw Austria - and I'm keeping the lines to Vienna open since I may find Austrian friendship useful in a year or two. Russia and Germany make sense. Scooter did a bog-standard Russian play, Germany as well but got screwed over with an aggressive England who loves France. Even pindi's France makes sense - he neatly kept anyone out of his territory in the spring and grabbed every single center he could in teh fall. Worse, the sharp-eyed bugger has instantly sniffed out Scooter and me (not that I hid it all that well, going to Constantinople instead of the Black Sea), so he's probably playing that for every advantage he can get. Scooter and I should probably try to use his massive growth against him - surely Italy and England can be made a bit nervous and unwilling to throw in with France until it's too late?

Anyway, those two I don't get. England is grumping to me that France betrayed him - what, was he not going to go to Belgium? Why didn't you convoy your army there instead, if that was the deal you expected? Pindi's been mum about England, so I have to read Adrien from one side only, and the contact there has been thin. I was hoping to tempt him north to faff with Scooter, but he...didn't do anything, instead.

Italy makes a bit mroe sense, I think - it looks like he tried a Key Lepanto in the spring, where Austria lets the Italian army march through Trieste en route to Albania to get into the action sooner. It takes a huge amount of trust and 9 times out of 10 Italy just stabs Austria anyway. That would explain the Rome -> Apu move (a key Lepanto tell) in the spring with the Ven -> Trieste move, only nauf didn't bite. So, Cyneheard pivoted and went with the Austrian attack, throwing an army into the Tyrol and another into Venice, except by now Nauf's attenna was up and he stymied the attempt with his own thrust at Venice.

So, lean on Cyneheard's commitment to divvy up Austria, tell him it's a sure thing with me and Russia helping, and point out how he needs to grow quick with scary France back there, woOoOoo. Do the same with England, who as I noted seems confused. That'll be the play for 1902 while I, with regret, attempt to brutally murder nauf. And keep my fingers crossed scooter stays on-board for at least one more year.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Russia, Turkey, and Austria have no surprises. I build a fleet in Smyrna, which secures my southern flank and enables a powerful attack on Greece at the same time. The army in Ankara will better enable me to project power into the Balkan interior - a fleet was possible, but either it'd need to transition out through the Strait or I'd have to stab Russia, and I'd like to wait a year or two before trying that. Army better enables me to secure the inland centers. 

Russia's fleet in St. Pete was obvious given England/France, and could help Germany balance at sea. Germany surprises not with an army in Munich but a fleet in Berlin - Berlin was his only option for a fleet build so maybe it's aimed at England, or maybe he's insanely opted to contest the Baltic and fight Russia, England, and France all at once? Either way Scooter probably isn't happy about it, and frankly neither should England be - it's great news for France, though. 

Italy surprises with the flexible fleet in Venice - it can push into the Adriatic and enable a better attack on Trieste, EXCEPT that now Nauf can bounce him in the Adriatic and STILL stand the army out of Rome, unless he slips south to Apulia first, wasting a season. ...oh, wait, he can just support it into Trieste via Tyrol...unless the army in Vienna cuts the support. Or he holds and supports the army in, that would work...eh. I guess it works, and he's got 2 fleets to my 2 so neither of us is pushing yet. 

France's builds are good for me, I think - the fleet in Mar will piss off Italy, the fleet in Brest is guaranteed to piss off England. I spent hte morning attempting to sow dissension between England/France, so hopefully that bears some fruit. 

Anyway, I'll need to work out tactics for pushing into the Balkans now. Getting the first round of messages now.