[Spoilers] Adrien's England is your friend

[AdrienIer]

Hey, IDK how much I'll keep the thread updated (the exchanges are already on the discord) but maybe I'll get some underlying thoughts sometimes.

For thousand-year-old reasons I am unwilling to post a British flag as a misclick-saver, so I'll just skip a few lines post the best picture in history.

   

There, that should be enough unless people have huuuuuuuuge computer screens.

[AdrienIer]

My optimal plan would be to ally with France against Germany, for Italy to go east and not mess up with France for now, and when Germany dies to take the northern Russian lands. Eventually the french/british alliance can't hold and I may have to betray them, but not for a while I think.

[AdrienIer]

I like my current diplomatic status with most people. I can delay my decisions with regards to France and Germany till the second move (of course there's a world in which they're actually allying against me, but even then I don't think I'm in too much trouble). It looks like Russia might be dogpiled, which would make me more inclined to ally with Germany (so they also help me in Scandinavia), but Italy has been super silent so maybe it won't be so one sided. Also I like my Austrian and Turkish diplomatic exchanges, so maybe the plan should be to destroy Germany with France (and some Russian help), and then the French-British alliance can betray the Russian/Italian alliance

[AdrienIer]

Pindicator mentioned that most players in this game were beginners. So perhaps some people here would like some general comments from me, a semi-experienced player (3 IRL games and ~7-8 online games).

I like playing as England. You don't have a whole lot of easy expansion, but you're also very hard to attack. As I said in the previous message, a joint French/German attack on England can work but it takes time and is usually worse for both of them than an alliance with England against the other. It also forces them to build several navies that won't have a lot of purpose after England falls. So you usually get to choose your ally. You also have an interesting situation in Scandinavia, with good dynamics that depend on your relationship with Germany. It's a comfortable situation.

More generally, an interesting part of Diplomacy is setting up good diplomatic relationships with nations far away. I thought what Austria did (giving me a very minor info on a Russian move that I don't really care about) was a really good move, it gave me almost nothing but was an actual incentive to be friends compared to just saying "we should be friends" and not talking for the next few days. Same thing with Turkey : we have one common neighbor, and even if we can't actually help each others's armies it keeps us talking. As England there are many people who are not a threat to you in any way, but who you want to talk to anyway because you have a common neighbor with real possibilities for conquest. Those people have very little reason to lie to you, which is so rare in this game.

Now why am I probably going to ally with Pindi/France this game (assuming Pindi and Klops are not lying to me and planning on attacking me) : Klops had an opportunity to give me something in 1901 by going in Hol right away (+ Bur to stop the support french army there). That way in fall 1901 they can support my landing in Belgium. He decided to be non commital, which I think means he's going to go to Denmark with his Kiel fleet. So at best I'm getting Belgium in 1902, which is not better than what France is offering (Hol in 1902) when he had an opportunity to make a better offer. In Diplomacy it's much better to give someone something right away than to promise things later. It makes for a much better basis for alliance.

Last comment to clarify what I'm trying to achieve currently : Ally with France, be friendly with Turkey and Austria while not antagonizing Russia, make Germany deny Sweden from Russia in fall 1901 (both so Russia is weaker and an easier target later, and to create bad blood between Russia and Germany so it's less likely for them to team up in 1902 when my betrayal of Germany is revealed). Also I checked with Italy to make sure they're not going against France (or I would have joined the dogpile on France).

[AdrienIer]

Gonna monologue some more : This auto-adjudication is annoying. I wanted to tell Krups of my DMZ with Pindi before it going live, and now it looks shady.
Although I haven't looked at the moves yet, so maybe there is no DMZ and I'm in big trouble.

[Qgqqqqq]

Appreciate the analysis!

[AdrienIer]

I'll try to find the time for more then !

Pindi can gain 3 centers at then end of the year. If he's going to be a loyal ally this is great news, but at the same time I'm not sure I want that.

[AdrienIer]

Of course Scooter is right that going along with me is probably not great in the long term, but because it looks like he's not building a strong alliance with anyone he's likely going to be in trouble anyway so he might as well have the extra centers

[AdrienIer]

Not to bash on Klops (his arguments are fine on their own) but I completely disagree that being super cautious is the way to go in this game. This is an arms race : if England and Germany ally but let Russia get in Sweden and let France get 5 units in the field very early while only getting +1 and +2 units, they're likely to still be struggling to defeat their direct opponents by 1905. If there's an eastern alliance that's bolder than them they'll be at a serious disadvantage to stop them afterwards.

[AdrienIer]

Why I'm pissed at the situation : I think it's likely that Pindicator is making a strategic mistake by doing what he did, even though getting 6 centers is supposedly the best outcome for him. Either he's in an alliance with Germany and Russia (and a fleet will be created in Brest this winter), in which case I think he'll be the next on the menu (the Russian fleet needs to have a purpose after an english conquest). Or he got played by Germany and Russia this fall (like he claims), which I really don't understand : unless you're attempting an alliance with Germany aginst England there's really no reason to listen to a word he says when playing as France. Or he's just playing for his own interest without any compromise for building alliances/friendships/whatever you can call trusting someone a little in this game, which is IMO a mistake early on and he'll get gobbled by Germany and Russia after I'm dead.

I likely won't be able to defend Norway next year, and not only won't be able to take Hol but I won't even be able to stop Germany from taking it. It'll take a miracle of perfectly timed moves to salvage something out of 1902. The German/Russian alliance is clear both in moves and (according to Pindicator) in their diplomatic dance. Turkey and Austria's little maneuvre in the balkans was fun, but they let Russia get into Rum without taking the black sea so Russia's in a really great spot.

I'm also concerned about Italy, whose navy in Tunisia might be headed for Spain or Marseille, and concerned about what Pindicator intends to do with his Por fleet. I wanted him to refrain from taking Spain because I wanted his fleet to be pinned down there in 1902, and then entering the mediteranean in 1903 from Spa sc.

To be clear I'm only pissed ingame, I'm really happy to be playing Diplomacy and have absolutely no beef with anyone beyond this specific game. I made a mistake by not telling Pindi that Germany was moving to Ruh and letting Bur open for his army (maybe he'd have reconsidered his moves then), so any criticism of anyone's play is second to the criticism I have with my own plays.