[SPOLERS] yuris125, Pitboss 71. The battle Warrior of Light is unlikely to win

[yuris125]

Another turn, another opportunity to clean up some keshiks




However, I had to risk one of my two remaining spears




And lost this combat. Reconnecting copper (or finding accessible iron) is high priority - archers do a decent job defending cities against keshiks, but I need units to protect against pillaging

C2 chariot won 60% follow-up against wounded keshik, then an archer finished the encounter




I did get a great general out this. Initial plan was to settle it in Ishgard to get double-promoted units out of the gate. But with Ishgard whipped into the ground and lack of metals, I felt getting an immediate boost to firepower was better. Also, GG was born in Old Sharlayan, and would take a few turns to even get to Ishgard. So instead I attached it to my last remaining spear, promoting it to C2, Formation, and Morale

Then I cleaned up this keshik




Was it a waste of a GG? Not sure. On flatland, 2 keshiks still have over 60% chance of killing it, so e.g. I can't rely on it to protect workers rebuilding the copper mine. On the other hand, morale is great at letting me kill any stray keshiks, and SD doesn't have a serious stack, so stray keshiks won't be uncommon. Plus, of course, if he stacks them up, he's vulnerable to catapults

I think SD will pillage one of my golds next turn (see the keshik 2E of Old Sharlayan), which will delay IW a bit. I finished a catapult with a chop in case he moves the two incoming keshiks towards the capital as well, so that I have as good odds as I can get to kill the stack

[yuris125]

Old Sharlayan is about to be pillaged into oblivion




However, land around Ishgard is clear for now - maybe I can rebuild the copper mine?

With the last keshik in Ishgardian area, I had 72% of killing it with the gg spear (who was not at 100% health). The alternative option was to promote the archer to drill 4, sacrifice it while dealing as much damage as possible with first strikes, and clean up with whatever leftover unit I had. Opted for the latter - as I keep saying, archers are expendable in my situation, and the gg spear really isn't

Also decided not to move the spear into the capital, since assuming SD pillages the roads, he will be trapped there. So just left it in place to heal

Temporarily rebuilding the road between the capital and the other two cities allowed me to eliminate unhappiness for a turn, this let Kugane regrow to 4, and next turn I will whip a worker there to help with the rebuild

Old Sharlayan is not at risk (5 attackers vs 5 defenders, and archers get good odds on defence)

This war is becoming frustrating, as I'm more and more aware of how far I'm falling behind because of it. But I don't see a way out, and SD is probably too committed to stop

[yuris125]

The pillaging continues. This is the big problem I'm having, SD can keep bringing reinforcements, and I'm out of pop to whip away for units (not that I have anything worth whipping without metals). Also, with all the hills, this infrastructure will take so long to rebuild after the war. But we'll worry about that when the war is actually over

This turn I had to move the spear into the woods so that I wouldn't lose the worker coming over from the capital. I did kill a wounder keshik like this




And then moved a healthy axe from the capital to cover it. A C1/Shock keshik only gets 36% odds against an axe on a hill; SD might take it, but if I get to trade a keshik for an axe it's good for me - the fewer keshiks are in the area, the more opportunities for the gg spear to pick up keshiks without fear of dying to a follow-up. Also the more keshiks are there attacking axes, the fewer are around for pillaging

Looking at the power graph, how likely is it that the end result of this war is Krill coming over and swallowing SD and me both?

[yuris125]

The funny thing is, usually it's good for Mongolia player to attack with keshiks as early as possible, but if SD's attack came 10 turns later, he likely would've rolled over me, as I would've been away fighting Thoth. As it is, he caught me in the middle of military build-up, and that's why all he accomplished was sending me back into stone age - his gains have been non-existent, and even if he does manage to make progress, it's likely too late for him to recover from being stuck on 3 cities for so long

[yuris125]

By the way, SD has ~43% chance of killing the gg spear with 2 keshiks (losing 1 keshik is a near-certainty), and just over 80% with 3 keshiks. Wonder if he's concerned about this unit enough to take it. Obviously it is a terrible trade, but it is also my last spear

[yuris125]

A disaster of a turn. Firstly, a bug with Vodka (or I just misunderstood how it works) - the culture defence % value is applied even if the City checkbox is not checked. As a result, all the odds I gave in my previous post were wrong. I had culture defence set to 40% as I was simming SD's attack on the capital, and thought it was enough to uncheck the City checkbox to remove it from calculations for out-of-city combat. Turns out it's not the case













So yeah. Moving the healthy axe out of the city to protect the wounded one was a mistake

In addition, SD did take the attack on the gg spear, and did get lucky, with the sacrificial keshik dealing 3/4 health worth of damage




So the spear only ended up trading with a single keshik, and the 2 axes died for free

Whipped an archer in the capital, will overflow into another archer - shouldn't result in me losing the city. But well, lesson learned with trusting the calculator (watch me blindly trust it again in 5 turns)

[yuris125]

SD seems content to siege the capital for now. Let's see if he lets me rebuild the copper mine. For some reason he isn't pillaging the road between the capital and the other cities either

Begged Thoth for his spare wine. Worst that can happen, he says no

Still fuming about my mistake last turn, I can blame the calculator all I want, but I should've realised the numbers were off. But let's be honest, I haven't been in this game ever since it became clear that the war against SD isn't going to end. A long grindy war was something neither SD nor me wanted, but that's what we got. A free axe I gifted to SD wouldn't have made a difference. And for the gg spear, I'm content that moving it into the forest was the best trade I was going to get out of it

At this point I'm likely just doing my best to defend against SD and waiting to see who comes to pick up the pieces

[Amicalola]

You may be pretty unlikely to win from here, but I have to say it doesn't particularly seem to be your fault.

[yuris125]

Thanks for the reassurance! After I have been (with a good reason) viewed as one of the weaker players on RB for so long, in 68 and in this game I hoped to make good progress as a player. For that purpose, it's easy to dismiss a game like this - if I get keshiked, repel the initial attack, but the Mongolia player keeps trying to grind something out of this war, there isn't much I can do (and again, I'm not blaming SD here, he stymied his own growth to launch a keshik attack on 3 cities; his game is effectively over if he peaces out, it's probably over either way, but he has to keep going to have even a long odds chance). I still have to wonder if there's fair criticism and things to learn from even in this game - but I guess even if there is, that's something to discuss after the game. Fwiw, apart from some execution issues (like losing that axe), I'm reasonably happy with how I played so far

[yuris125]

Looks like Old Sharlayan is dying




Way too lazy to try to figure out if SD got lucky, or just had too much for me to handle. Not like it matters. I had 4 archers and an axe on defence (and a catapult which ended up not mattering). The first combat he won was just under 25% odds according to the combat log, and it all went downhill from there

Was able to clear one of the wounded keshiks, but it won't make a difference




Thoth did give me wine, although I'm not sure if our trade connection will stay active once Old Sharlayan falls. Thoth, we always were destined to be best friends, anyone who says I ever had plans to attack you, it's all slander

Copper should be reconnected next turn, started warriors in both cities who should auto-upgrade to spears in queue

Thinking back, all my problems started when I moved the spear out of the capital in order to attach gg and send it hunting for stray keshiks. That idea really didn't work out