[SPOILERS]Acrid Pinot and other Pindicator anagrams

[NobleHelium]

I prefer: Truly Puny Oar

[NobleHelium]

Looks like rego teched Myst (someone did and scooter's score is the same). That gives him a 2-turn lead on us for religion. Can we overcome that if we pick the same tech? Hmm.

Edit: Miscalculated, he only has a one turn lead.

[pindicator]

Turn 038

Our warrior finished scouting the north coast, and we have two islands to our northeast:



His scouting task done, this warrior is going to head to the capital. The warrior that just came out of the capital will head SW now, to uncover the fog south of the spices and around the copper, and possibly to keep heading south to get those last 2 contacts (Ichabod & Ruff_Hi). I need to get an idea what these two are doing, especially Ruff. Can't quite tell what he's been teching, but it seems to be a little odd no matter which way I try to figure. More on that later.

Internationally Rego & Ichabod both gained a pop point in their 2nd cities. They are the population leaders with 6 apiece: 4 in the caiptal and 2 in the 2nd city. Rego also picked up Mysticism, which implies we're in a bit of a race for Polytheism. Is it a race we can win?

GNP Graph deduction time:



If I recall, the GNP graph is updated at the end of everybody's turn. So the turn number corresponds to what the GNP looked after Scooter hit enter on that turn. Which is why even though I had 29 GNP during the turn on t35, it showed as 21 on the graph because I finished researching Pottery at the end of my turn and had no tech selected as a follow-up, so I lost that 1.4x bonus.

I know Rego finished researching Mysticism at end of turn 37, and he started it on turn 32. So it took him 6 turns to finish Meditation. Based on the dip he received in GNP at end of turn 37 after researching Meditation I know that he has met only 1 other civ out there that knows Meditation. The known civ boost with 2 civs would have been 2 points on the GNP graph and been a bigger dip. So let's assume he has the same expenses (-2gpt) and culture (2Cpt) and EP (of course, 4) as us. That would mean we can figure out how many beakers he's put into Meditation each turn. It breaks down to:

Turn	GNP	Beakers	Commerce
32	19	15	13
33	20	16	14
34	20	16	14
35	22	18	16
36	22	18	16
37	22	18	16

(Huh, is there a table guide around I can use? No idea why that Commerce column is a different color...)

Keep in mind that the last turn on the table doesn't match the GNP on the graph because after Rego researched Mysticism he had no tech selected (an assumption, but likely) and his GNP dropped. I'm also assuming that he had contact with the other civ with Mysticism the entire time; it's possible he gained that contact any time along the way. If he gained gold on any of those turns, the commerce column should be increased by 1 because I'm accounting for a "free" beaker due to Known Civ with Tech.

So over 6 turns he gained 15 + 16 + 16 + 18 + 18 + 18 = 101b. Since Mysticism is only 66b, we're going to assume he spent the first turn gaining gold. That gives 16 + 16(32) + 18(50) + 18(68) + 18(88) = 88b. and also banked 14g. Still, that means he should have gotten Mysticism end of t36, so that doesn't add up either. But say Rego wanted to bank gold for 2 turns to fund the entire run to Polytheism. Just banking 1 turn of gold wouldn't be enough to reach Polytheism; he'd have to run a 2nd turn after getting Meditation. So why not bank them both? So I think Rego went:

t32: save gold (gain 14g, lose 2 to expenses, 12 in the bank). 1b towards Myst
t33: save gold (gain 15g, lose 2 to expenses, 25 in the bank). 2b towards Myst
t34: 100% science. 16b gained. 18 total towards Myst. 23g in the bank
t35: 18b gained. 36 total. 21g left
t36: 18b gained. 54 total. 19g left
t37: 18b gained. 72 total. 17g left

Now this doesn't account for any roll over beakers from Pottery. I'm assuming that there are not many. First off, he didn't 12b of overflow, otherwise he would have gotten the tech end of turn 36. Also, he planted his 2nd city on t30. He was within 2 turns of Pottery by that point; it's possible that he lowered the slider to get Pottery in 2t rather than running 0% slider for full gold and then finishing off Pottery in 3 turns total. This is just a guess, I'd have to backtrack his GNP over the whole game to know for certain.

But he has anywhere between 6 and 17b overflow going into Polytheism. Actually, he could only have 16 max, because he'll lose one due to rounding down that Known Civ bonus.

Now polytheism is worth 132b. At 16 commerce Rego would be putting in 20 adjust beakers per turn into Polythism. Let's say he got the most overflow possible from Meditation, or 16b. On the first turn he would put in 39b. Then it would take him 5 more turns to finish off the tech, or 6 turns total. That means he would expect to finish Polytheism at end of turn 43.

Our expected time to finish Polytheism? End of turn 43. This turn our GNP went up 4 due to working the fish lake and getting a "free" beaker thanks to Rego knowing Mysticism. Next turn the GNP will go up 8 more when the gold mine finishes. So we have the commerce advantage, and if things stay the same we should beat him out.

How much bpt does Rego need to average to beat us? In the above example, Rego would be at 119/132 on Polytheism if he stays at his current commerce rate. But he also grew a population at end of turn. Let's assume he has a brand new riverside cottage waiting for that new citizen. That would put him at 18c and putting 22bpt into Polytheism. At end of t42 he would have 130/132 in Polytheism. I'm guessing he would find a way to squeeze that out to t42 in that case.

So it's very possible we lose this race. Looking at the GNP graph next turn will be key: that will let us know how much commerce he pulled in on his t38. If he has a GNP of 26 or more, then we probably need to look at Meditation as our religion of choice.

Another thing I can try to do is go back over the whole GNP graph and try to get an estimate of how much overflow he put into Mysticism, which would let me know how much overflow he got at the end of last turn.

Anyway, here's the demos from the turn:

[pindicator]

I did in fact go through Rego's beakers over the first 37 turns. Good news: I'm estimating that he only put 3 beakers overflow into Mysticism from Pottery. That means he has 9b overflow from Mysticism (ends at 76/66 but KCwT rounding knocks one off).

That means Rego needs to average about 19.5 cpt in order to get Polytheism in 5 turns. His commerce last turn was 16. 19 commerce would mean he has a GNP of 28. So we'll see when next turn comes around how close a race this will be.

[NobleHelium]

Your last column is using [th] tags rather than [td]. [th] means table header as opposed to table data [td], so it gets the header style.

[pindicator]

Aha! Thank you!

So let's try a new table. This is showing my work from figuring Rego's beakers based off his GNP in the GNP graph and the techs I figure he's researched (spoilered for size):

Turn	GNP	Culture	EP	expenses	bpt	gpt	Progress	Notes
0	16	2	4	0	10	0	10/79	Start Agriculture
1	16	2	4	0	10	0	20/79
2	16	2	4	0	10	0	30/79
3	16	2	4	0	10	0	40/79
4	18	2	4	0	12	0	12/158	Swap to BW
5	17	2	4	0	11	0	51/79	Back to Ag
6	17	2	4	0	11	0	62/79
7	17	2	4	0	11	0	73/79
8	17	2	4	0	11	0	84/79	5b overflow
9	19	2	4	0	13	0	31/158	Bronze Working
10	18	2	4	0	12	0	43/158
11	18	2	4	0	12	0	55/158
12	18	2	4	0	12	0	67/158
13	18	2	4	0	12	0	79/158
14	18	2	4	0	12	0	91/158
15	18	2	4	0	12	0	103/158
16	18	2	4	0	12	0	115/158
17	19	2	4	0	13	0	128/158
18	19	2	4	0	13	0	141/158
19	19	2	4	0	13	0	154/158
20	17 (19)	2	4	0	13	0	164/158	19 GNP during turn. 7b overflow
21	17	2	4	0	11	0	18/52	Fishing
22	18	2	4	0	12	0	30/52
23	18	2	4	0	12	0	42/52
24	17	2	4	0	11	0	53/52	0b overflow
25	21	2	4	0	15	0	15/105	Pottery
26	21	2	4	0	15	0	30/105
27	21	2	4	0	15	0	45/105
28	22	2	4	0	16	0	61/105
29	21	2	4	0	15	0	76/105
30	22	2	4	2	14	4	90/105	City #2 founded. 30% slider with 14 commerce
31	20 (25)	2	4	2	20	0	110/105	25 GNP during turn. 3b overflow
32	19	2	4	2	1	14	4/66	Mysticism. Slider to max tax
33	20	2	4	2	1	15	5/66
34	20	2	4	2	16	0	21/66	Slider to 100% sci
35	22	2	4	2	18	0	39/66
36	22	2	4	2	18	0	57/66
37	21 (22)	2	4	2	18	0	75/66	8b overflow

I found an error; so instead of 9b overflow I think he got 8b overflow. But the target to watch for is still 28 GNP

[pindicator]

Turn 39

The good news: Rego's GNP last turn was 24. That means he's researching a tech with 1 pre-requisite and still is at 16 commerce. We are gonna win that race.

Oh, and scooter teched something but I can't figure out scooter's techs. Took him 9 turns, wasn't a tech I can research (per GNP scrying) and at most had 2k soldier points. Noble, if you want to take a crack at that today be my guest.

Gold!

[NobleHelium]

Someone's GNP is 28 now, so I would definitely double check the graph next turn to be sure. Med is still an option.

Worker next in NHL, OAT starts a granary, yes? 2SW for the new work boat?

[pindicator]

Yep! Wb moves 2sw- should make contact before we net the clams.
speaking of which, clams + pig would speed up the worker by a turn. But is that worth losing out in the gold for 6 turns?
Dont think rego os the 28. Check the gnp graph- his brown line is clearly lower than our 25.

Granary was started in the cap this turn

[NobleHelium]

Yeah the graph was definitely showing 25. But I would check it again next turn to be sure and see where rego is at.

I definitely wouldn't work the clam over the gold while building the worker, no way. But I'm not convinced that we should finish the worker before growing to 3.