[PB59 Amicalola] The Vespertine Hour(s)

[klops]

funny side note... I found this quote " a few pages earlier"

... naming theme for this game (we'll need to think of a secondary theme if I get more than 12 cities)

12

[Amicalola]

T239 Part One - The Situation (and Why It's Bad)
Miguelito offered a ceasefire. Which, critically, is not a peace treaty. It's pretty clear that he intends to defend Lazteuq and Charriu's continent against any invasion from me. 

Have you considered turning on the culture slider maybe 10% for a turn or two? It could pop borders in the new cities probably from trade routes alone. What’s your current tech situation relative the field? Also earlier you said that if you wanted domination you needed to eat the Ottomans, how go preparations on that front?

So to answer your questions:
1. I have considered it, and will probably do so if the domination victory comes to fruition (at the end, to pop Cairo/Lazteuq/Charriu borders). But before then, it isn't worth it. 600 gold is too expensive for a few relatively inconsequential border pops. 

2. My current tech situation is, um... bad?  Here is the tech advisor:


I'm heading towards Laser for SDI, but progress is slow... Let alone getting Modern Armour or Mech Infantry like my rivals. I am going to need to rely on numbers and nukes to carry the battles, from now. 

I've included the GNP graph below so you can see my fall from grace, but here's the gist: Gone are the days of competing for Best Economy with Piccadilly, Frozen and Miguelito. Nowadays, I can barely compete with Charriu!  There's a couple of reasons for this. The first is unit cost and supply, which is expensive in its own right. But the big one is Cereal Mills:


Maybe the devs didn't quite manage to balance Corporations, but they certainly tried! The cost of the corp alone knocks my research down over 20%, and it hurts badly. So I'm already behind in tech compared to the other contenders, fighting Modern Armour and Mech Infantry with Tanks and Marines. It's only going to get worse. Tech is arguably my biggest problem right now, alongside question number 3.

3. The Cairo preparations are... grim. Pretty much every unit I have is off fighting on the Eastern or Western Front, and it's a huge problem. Here's the stack I currently have:


Maybe if I'm really lucky, I can take one city?  It's not quite as bad as it looks, since I do have some other plans for this area, and the war won't start for at least 6-7 turns (probably longer). But I can't spoil too much of that yet, because I'm still figuring it out as I go. I'll try to update it as the plans coalesce.  

The problem for Cairo is representative of my other huge problem. I'm spread out to a ludicrous degree, and need to focus in on two, or ideally just one, war at a time. But I also need to effectively take over at least 3 players, and the clock is ticking. You can see the issue. 



Here are the demographics, with the graphs in a spoiler below. 


It turns out that having Big Cereal fuel an empire creates some pretty bizzarre statistics. Like how about the fact that I'm 2nd in population, despite my food being double the next highest?  MFG has really been improving as Factories and Coal Plants get whipped on the Western Continent. Miguelito was knocked down about 1000 by my deal cancellations, and hopefully the others don't give him anything more. I paid Cairo 100gpt to cancel deals, which he accepted. That's promising.

GNP:


This is pretty disastrous. 

MFG:


Mig's MFG has been ridiculous. It was knocked down about 1000 by my war declaration. 

Food:


Woop woop. At the very left of this, you can also see how behind I was in the ~120-140s.  

Power


That's quite the build up! I've made a lot of mistakes, but one thing I'm pretty proud of is this build up. Especially at the beginning, when there was no Cereal Mills and I was only whipping infantry and Machine Guns. 

Otherwise, here's some Empire info. The Core:


Is starting to riot. Teching up to Plastics will be another -2 happiness in most large cities, and that's when shit will really hit the fan. Still, it's pretty remarkable just how many units I've been able to squeeze out of these cities so far. I've been more than keeping up with Miguelito in power, with functionally 2/3rds of the cities and a tech deficit.

The Western Continent:


Is about half-done with Cereal spreads. Tarkeel's and Superdeath's areas are finished entirely, while the three of Donovan's areas are only getting started now. I expect to be fully spread within the next 10 turns though. The cities are building the most basic of infrastructure right now (harbour + library) to help keep up with Miguelito. I am assuming that Piccadilly's spaceship is stopped, because there's no point playing around the scenario where it isn't - I just lose. Then we will probably start cranking out units while growing a little longer onto good tiles, and start whipping like mad. 

Lumbago (ex-Seether) is cranking out 15EXP fighters. 


The next GG goes here, to make them 17EXP. Those will be invaluable in any further pushes. I got the chance to try out air combat for real in some Miguelito battles, and it's actually quite intuitive, once it's been explained. Thanks for the information Refsteel, it might have been your best answer yet! 

Onthe Eastern Front, this stack can shred anything I land:


I have about 50 tanks available, with some misc. other troops. So this whole invasion is a bit of a bust so far, although I am definitely tying down a considerable number of troops. Tanks and bombers felt pretty overpowered against the Infantry and Knights, but against this stuff, they're just not cutting it. 

Meanwhile, Piccadilly's Eastern half is getting eviscerated by the triple-alliance of Miguelito, Civac, and Ichabod. 


At least someone is making gains.


On the Western Front, much is the same. I won't lose any territory for now, but I can't advance due to a combination of poor tech, and insufficient numbers. The only major attack I made this turn was invading Charriu's Astro island. 


I'm also landing enough to take Botany Bay, but the wrong picture saved. It's not the most consequential fight, but it will be satisfying, and I'll detail the capture next turn.  

So that's the situation, as it is right now. In the 20 turns from T216-236, I more than tripled my city count. I felt more and more confident with every turn, and victory began to feel not like a crazy idea, but a serious possibility. But now, reality catches up with me. I'm bogged down on all fronts, unable to advance. My tech is behind, and falling further behind every turn. It's pretty clear that something has to change, and fast. The question is: 'what?'

- - -

funny side note... I found this quote " a few pages earlier"

... naming theme for this game (we'll need to think of a secondary theme if I get more than 12 cities)

12 

Back then my only games were PB51, 55 and 56 (none very impressive). To be honest, I wasn't expecting to last past T150. 

[superdeath]

And to think you were going to raze Seether..

[Amicalola]

And to think you were going to raze Seether..

I'm sure glad I didn't! It's the home of the best pilots in the the empire. I can dry whip a fighter every two turns, and get enough overflow to also finish one on the other turn. Your generals are being put to good use.

[Amicalola]

T239 Part Two - Maximum Greed

So I've established in Part One that I view the biggest obstacles right now as
1. Lack of Money
2. Troops being spread too thinly
     2a. In the Lazteuq invasion, I have a tech edge against Lazteuq and Charriu, and maybe I could push against the two of them. But with Miguelito involved I don't even have the tech advantage anymore, and advancing is fruitless. 
     2b. In the Piccadilly invasion, I'm using Tanks, Marines and Bombers against Modern Armour, Artillery and SAM Infantry. Want to know how that fight goes? It doesn't.  
     2c. In the Cairo invasion, I don't have any troops because they're all fighting in 2a or 2b already. So I guess you could argue that's a problem.  

And the problem is, I don't think there's any way to simultaneously acquire considerable funding, stop losing troops against Piccadilly, and reassign already-busy troops for a Cairo invasion all at once... 

...or is there? 

So I've been trying to phrase why I'm offering this for a while, and I keep writing and deleting paragraphs that just become rambling. So I'll try to keep it brief. 

I actually believe this offer makes some sense rationally.  I view the percentage chances to win for Piccadilly/Miguelito/Amicalola on the game's current trajectory as roughly: 65%/34%/1%. That's probably generous to me, for the sake of clarity (possibly it should even just be 0%). Meanwhile, I think the chances to win if Piccadilly takes this peace look something like this: 92%/5%/3%. And here's the thing - I don't care what the first two numbers are. I'm not invading Piccadilly just to hand Miguelito the win if/when I can't beat him afterwards. Nor am I offering peace just to hand Piccadilly the win if/when the others can't stop him. I'm trying to thread the needle towards a scenario where I have the highest % chance to win, and I'm pretty confident that from here, making peace with Piccadilly (for a huge pile of gold) makes winning more likely than continuing the war. The other nice thing is that as you can tell by my 'win chances,' I believe the deal is mutually beneficial (with Miguelito as the loser), which makes me hopeful he'll take it. 

Although I think this is good forPiccadilly, the lost gold could actually do a decent amount of damage too. It's pretty much all of his income now, so it would limit things like unit upgrades. 

I also captured Timbuktu (original capital). 


I'm pretty sure I can capture more next turn, although obviously it depends on what Piccadilly does. There is also the question of whether I can hold it. 

So, have I improved my chances to win, or doomed them? Is there such a thing as 'too greedy?' Will Piccadilly even accept the offer? Let's find out!

[El Grillo]

Maximum greed! How many more turns does Picc need to hold out for, at this point?

[klops]

wow, this situation gets more and more complicated :D

Thanks for your detailed thoughts, really helps to understand. Tricky to estimate chances because you have to be confident, that Piccadilly will be stopped first, in every scenario.
I don't know if I had offered this treaty. On the other hand... I also don't know if would accept it

[Amicalola]

Maximum greed! How many more turns does Picc need to hold out for, at this point?

I believe he needs 8, off the top of my head (including the upcoming/current one). Maybe 7 or 9, if I've misunderstood or misremembered. He has 16 cities, so Miguelito/Civac/Ichabod (probably mostly Mig) would need to take and hold at least 2 per turn. I don't think it's very likely, but I definitely think it's possible. 

wow, this situation gets more and more complicated :D

Thanks for your detailed thoughts, really helps to understand. Tricky to estimate chances because you have to be confident, that Piccadilly will be stopped first, in every scenario.
I don't know if I had offered this treaty. On the other hand... I also don't know if would accept it 

No problem! You're right, it is very tricky to estimate. I think it's pretty unlikely that Piccadilly is stopped if peace is accepted. It was a difficult decision, for exactly that reason. And it's very greedy. But the alternative is to just sort of... lose, once Piccadilly is defeated. So we have to take some risks! 

I'm really curious to see if Piccadilly accepts the peace. Or if he reoffers it, or just isn't interested at all. To me it seems like a great deal for him, but I wonder if he will see it the same way.

[Cornflakes]

Amicalola,
Piccadilly's question and the subsequent reload was related to a bug associated with your maximum greed trade deal. The game allows trades that exceed a players income, putting the player into strike ... but the bug would still pay you the full gpt even after he enters strike, resulting in several thousand gold created for free. This is apparently a known bug in the community but one I hadn't heard of previously.

You may log in now to re-offer a trade up to his current gpt income (approximately 850) if you still consider that amount to be greedy enough, or some other more greedy offer as long as the you don't exceed his gpt income. Or if Piccadilly plays first you may offer another trade on your turn.

[Amicalola]

Amicalola,
Piccadilly's question and the subsequent reload was related to a bug associated with your maximum greed trade deal. The game allows trades that exceed a players income, putting the player into strike ... but the bug would still pay you the full gpt even after he enters strike, resulting in several thousand gold created for free. This is apparently a known bug in the community but one I hadn't heard of previously.

You may log in now to re-offer a trade up to his current gpt income (approximately 850) if you still consider that amount to be greedy enough, or some other more greedy offer as long as the you don't exceed his gpt income. Or if Piccadilly plays first you may offer another trade on your turn.

To be honest, that is how I expected it to work - I just wasn't aware that it wasn't allowed, or is a bug. That was what I liked about the deal: it still hurt Piccadilly considerably (reducing him to no rush-buys or upgrades after a few turns, and possibly even strike) while allowing me to pursue actual ways to win. I can understand why 'gold created for free' is viewed negatively, but I wonder if its something that should be allowed on a case-by-case basis (i.e. not being abused, as here). But regardless, if its the ruling, I obviously respect that. 

That's a real shame though. It is definitely not worth offering the deal if it will not bankrupt Piccadilly; that would move any of my 'win chance' estimations to 100%/0%/0%. The bankruptcy would be crucial in allowing Miguelito to still have a small chance. Which is a real shame for me, because I suspect it locks the win chances at that original 65%/34%/1%. 

I don't really understand what you mean by 'as long as you don't exceed his gpt income.' Any offer I send will exceed it within 1-2 turns. Here, I offered 1500gpt, as that was his income (presumably it has shruink to 850, like you say). But surely his income will fall below that again, as more cities get captured; if I offer 850gpt this turn, his income might be 300gpt the next. How is that any different from this? I guess what I mean is: this essentially invalidates any deal beyond white peace, if we assume it cannot exceed his income over the course of the deal (10 turns). But OTOH, if we assume only from the turn I offer, my offer is valid regardless (and mechanically impossible to exceed the gpt, as far as I know). So where is the line drawn, exactly?

Does that make sense? I guess I'm a bit perplexed by this ruling. I'm not convinced the original problem (+ strike income) is an issue, but if it is, I don't see how this solves that issue. Why is an 850gpt offer any more acceptable than a 1500gpt one, if the issue is that it will eventually exceed Piccadilly's income and create free gold in a strike?