September 22nd, 2020, 12:19
Posts: 13,237
Threads: 25
Joined: Oct 2010
They're not really odds - it's just the percentage of simulations that resulted in success. To get the real odds you have to do enough simulations until the percentage converges on some value, and even then you would have an error bound with an associated degree of confidence.
September 22nd, 2020, 14:15
Posts: 2,110
Threads: 7
Joined: Aug 2020
Come on. I meant the displayed odds of the simulator. My point was exactly that they don't converge very fast.
September 22nd, 2020, 22:14
Posts: 8,774
Threads: 95
Joined: Oct 2017
![[Image: HWQtD7g.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/HWQtD7g.jpg)
Idk.. if he does get a warrior out ( looks like he will chop one out 1t before i could smack his capital.. DO I GO FOR THE CHANCE TO KILL IT WITH JUST 2 WARRIORS? I think the answer is yes. Because otherwise they will just die to any archers he gets out, and i should have my own axe heading there in 8t or so.. So enough to prevent him from re-settling his copper. From there its just choke with 2-3 axes, and expand? Probably.
"Superdeath seems to have acquired a rep for aggression somehow. ![[Image: noidea.gif]](https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/images/smilies/noidea.gif) In this game that's going to help us because he's going to go to the negotiating table with twitchy eyes and slightly too wide a grin and terrify the neighbors into favorable border agreements, one-sided tech deals and staggered NAPs."
-Old Harry. PB48.
September 22nd, 2020, 23:39
Posts: 8,774
Threads: 95
Joined: Oct 2017
To celebrate razing a city, here is another video:
"Superdeath seems to have acquired a rep for aggression somehow. In this game that's going to help us because he's going to go to the negotiating table with twitchy eyes and slightly too wide a grin and terrify the neighbors into favorable border agreements, one-sided tech deals and staggered NAPs."
-Old Harry. PB48.
September 23rd, 2020, 02:23
Posts: 8,293
Threads: 83
Joined: Oct 2009
Your call, it is somewhere around 44% to succeed (you have 2 warriors on the plains hill in his land right?). But if the first attack doesn't deal enough damage, you don't have to throw in the second warrior.
I can see the benefit in pillaging and preventing chops though. Both options seem good, just a matter of risk vs reward.
September 23rd, 2020, 02:25
Posts: 8,293
Threads: 83
Joined: Oct 2009
If it was me playing, well I wouldn't be warrior rushing to begin with, but if I was, I would take the chance to end the war right now and get back on track with economy and expansion.
September 24th, 2020, 00:24
Posts: 8,774
Threads: 95
Joined: Oct 2017
(September 23rd, 2020, 02:25)Jowy Wrote: If it was me playing, well I wouldn't be warrior rushing to begin with, but if I was, I would take the chance to end the war right now and get back on track with economy and expansion.
Sadly only got 1 hit in with the first warrior, so the 2nd one is going to harass his workers/burn his corn till his inevitable archers start popping.
![[Image: N4nEweJ.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/N4nEweJ.jpg)
![[Image: hNrZzrK.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/hNrZzrK.jpg)
Plan from here out is to settle the copper/sheep city and send an axe or two to keep mjmd contained. Expand, and then come back and finish him off unless he leaves an opening.
"Superdeath seems to have acquired a rep for aggression somehow. In this game that's going to help us because he's going to go to the negotiating table with twitchy eyes and slightly too wide a grin and terrify the neighbors into favorable border agreements, one-sided tech deals and staggered NAPs."
-Old Harry. PB48.
September 25th, 2020, 09:15
Posts: 7,602
Threads: 75
Joined: Jan 2018
Ignore this comment. It's only here for misdirection. For your info the bug did not effect you.
September 28th, 2020, 23:27
Posts: 8,774
Threads: 95
Joined: Oct 2017
![[Image: kJKm0nO.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/kJKm0nO.jpg)
Lost my warrior to his archer with only 1 Hit, which sucks because i was hoping for a low odds win so that i could slip the scout out, or even better, move the warrior onto the forest.
![[Image: fpS1lGG.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/fpS1lGG.jpg)
"Superdeath seems to have acquired a rep for aggression somehow. In this game that's going to help us because he's going to go to the negotiating table with twitchy eyes and slightly too wide a grin and terrify the neighbors into favorable border agreements, one-sided tech deals and staggered NAPs."
-Old Harry. PB48.
Posts: 8,774
Threads: 95
Joined: Oct 2017
(October 1st, 2020, 03:05)Miguelito Wrote: SD, was no double turn deliberate?
(October 1st, 2020, 09:02)NobleHelium Wrote: You should not ask that question.
![[Image: EGI0km9.gif?noredirect]](https://i.imgur.com/EGI0km9.gif?noredirect)
Got 1 hr of sleep before work today, so just been going thru the threads and making sure i didnt miss anything... Man lol
For what its worth, I accepted peace with Mjmd for now. Im 2t away from AH, and im hoping horses are in my BFC somewhere. Although i highly doubt that they are.
"Superdeath seems to have acquired a rep for aggression somehow. In this game that's going to help us because he's going to go to the negotiating table with twitchy eyes and slightly too wide a grin and terrify the neighbors into favorable border agreements, one-sided tech deals and staggered NAPs."
-Old Harry. PB48.
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