[SPOILERS] LogicalTautology is Pindicator's DD

[pindicator]

Turn 025

Commodore finished either the Wheel or combined Hunting with the completion of a warrior on t24. I'd bet he's finishing up a settler right now so my guess is Hunting and he's going to plant his second city right between his cow and copper. So perhaps he took a couple turns to make sure he had a warrior for defense? I've got sight on his worker but I imagine he's going to chop that tree to put into his settler -- this also makes me think he snuck in a warrior. It's turn 25 and you're just starting a chop for your IMP-fueled settler? I'd think you would be finishing that by now if you built a settler at size 2.



(Definitely not a star..)

Back home we've finished our warrior and as much as i want to move him west one more turn I need to pull him back east towards the gold mine if I'm going to protect my worker while we road that forest east of the gold. So uncovering those last few tiles is just going to have to wait until turn 50 I guess.



Yuri finished Bronze Working this turn. That means in any theoretical race for religion I'm likely to beat out everybody not named wetbandit. And wetbandit is still teching Bronze Working, so depending on how long it takes him to finish that it's possible I can beat him to that too. This is all going into the Meditation vs. Polytheism debate. Projections have Meditation finishing end of t34 and Polytheism end of t36 (I can probably squeeze that to end of t35 by swapping onto a commerce-heavy tile, but for obvious reasons I don't want to do that).

Since wetbandit started his settler at size 2 and is the only one of us not to tech Fishing, I would guess he is pulling in 11cpt at best. Which would put him at best at a 7-turn Meditation (assuming good overflow) and a 9-turn Polytheism. And city #2 will be planted during that time which will lead to all kinds of assumptions regarding maintenance costs if he has an immediate trade route. I suppose I could go back and figure out how much commerce he's like been at since the start of the game....

Okay, doing that tells me wetbandit should have finished bronze working this turn with my assumptions. So either he's swapped techs mid-stream, or his second tile doesn't get +1c like I assumed and he'll finish BW next turn. Which means if he goes for a religion next I can't beat him to either one, unless he also takes a turn to revolt to slavery. So! I either need to guess which one he will tech and choose the other, or just pick the one that's best for me and hope he chooses the other.

Yay

[pindicator]

It's starting to look like the only solution is just to not play games with Commodore any more. It's turn 27 and neither of us has met anybody else yet.

[pindicator]

Turn 028

First, lets catch up on the C&D:

• Turn 26 - wetbandit did indeed finish Bronze Working. Flugauto also finished a tech and gained 4k soldier points (everybody was at 15k after this, funny enough). So like Commodore, Flug either teched Hunting timed with a warrior build or teched Wheel. Like Commodore, I think the more likely the answer is Wheel. The oddity here was Commodore grew to size 3 at this point. This was 8 turns after growing to size 2 and at most there was one warrior built. So I'm guessing a partial settler with a warrior for growth, which means I guess Commodore teched Hunting back on turn 24 instead of Wheel. Maybe?
  
• Turn 27 - Flugauto whips away a population from his capital. The funny thing about pbem games is you never really know when someone goes into a 1-turn anarchy, because they'll always revolt out of it when they hit enter and pass the save along. I want to say that's a settler he whipped: he grew to size 3 on turn 23, which gave him t24, 25, and 26 -- that doesn't seem like enough to get a settler in, even with a chop, but I'm not going to work it out that close. We'll find out soon enough if it was a settler or something else. Commodore definitely finishes a warrior this turn.
  
• Turn 28 - Flugauto grows the population right back. Also, nobody has settled their second city yet!!?? Isn't there an Imperialistic Civ in the game? Shouldn't he be building settlers or something? Also, somebody not named Commodore builds a warrior this turn.

Finished our forest chop this turn, and our settler is just a few turns out. This is crazy, at most we are going to be 3 turns behind the leader for settling city #2. I never thought that would have been the case when I decided to grow to size 3. (Imagine - my first plan was to build a settler at size 2; I would have been founding my city this turn if I had gone with that.)

Mysticism came in last turn and I decided to go for the religion via Meditation. I don't see any evidence that anybody else is going for a religion, and at this point I'm ahead of everybody not named wetbandit in that race. So might as well go for the cheaper option, especially since I don't have plans to continue down the religious line right away. After Meditation I think the next step is to get Archery and try to settle towards Commodore.

Speaking of Commodore, I haven't seen much to his west but jungle...



But i do have his graphs!









These were taken after ending the turn. Considering his mfg didn't spike up past 2 until last turn, I don't think he built 2 warriors. So I'm going to go with Wheel and then a Warrior last turn.

Also interesting: he also put a single turn into working a 1f2h tile at size 1, like I did. I wonder what his reasons for that were?

[pindicator]

Turn 030

We found somebody else!



He appears to be closer to Commodore than we are, which is good news.

Still no 2nd cities from anybody. I'm a bit floored, to be honest. What's wetbandit been doing at size 2 all these turns if not getting a settler out?

My settler finished at the end of the turn.

With C&D, Commodore finished a tech and gained 2k soldier points, so I'm going to guess Hunting here.

[pindicator]

Turn 031

I actually thought about not revolting to Slavery, but I have a serious lack of production for the early game. RtR makes workshops and lumbermills and watermills more accessible, but that's still Metal Casting or Machinery before I can get to any of that. So I think it's going to be Slavery, even if that risks losing the religion due to a 1-turn delay...



Wetbandit got the game's first second city! Congrats and balloons to him!

Yuri finished a tech, and somebody not named Commodore gained 2k soldier points. And Commodore is now teching either Pottery or Animal Husbandry, due to the spike in his GNP but the crop yield + mfg says he hasn't changed tiles. So I'm guessing he's after a tech now that he has double pre-reqs to, and knowing Commodore he's going to plant his first city between that copper/cow/ivory so I'm going to guess it's Animal Husbandry.

No idea if wetbandit is going for religion. But remember that he's Creative, so there isn't the same need for him to pop his borders with a religion.

I was messing around with some numbers today, and trying to see how I could reasonably stake some ground between Commodore and myself:



Aside from being on a hill and being in a defensible spot, it's a very nice city location. And as long as it is possible that we can grab it I think I need to stake a claim. Anyway, with a little napkin math I figure I could get an archer and settler on that spot by turn 46 with a second archer a few turns behind.

Even if I don't want to pick quite as an aggressive spot, I think my third city needs to at least go south of the peak tile, to prevent Commodore from planting a city on that hill and shouldering me out of the center of the middleground between us.

If I could just pick a good spot to develop naturally and not worry about neighbors, I would probably pick between the Fish/Wheat/Stone in the east, or SE of the pigs for a central spot with good production. But I think keeping Commodore from shouldering me out is more pressing an issue.

[pindicator]

Turn 032 & 033

C&D update:



As far as I can tell, everybody decided to do everything on the same damn turn.

Here's what I have figured:

• Commodore settled his 2nd city
  
• Flugauto grew to size 4 and hasn't settled a 2nd city, but he got a tech
  
• One of wetbandit/yuris grew to size 3 and settled their 2nd city
  
• The other of wetbandit/yuris stayed at size 2 and settled their 2nd city, and also gained a tech
  
• There was a global increase of 5k soldier points, only 3k of which comes from the population gains

Which means there's a lot i haven't figured. Just going to have to look for future clues and work my way back.

And I staggered my way to Amnesia Brewing!



I used to do that more often when I lived in North Portland, but sadly we've both moved away from that neighborhood.

Turn 033

flugauto mined the desert hill, and his gold isn't as awesome as my gold



Worldwide there were no changes at all in tech, population, anything. Which means I just need to cross my fingers and hope nobody finishes Meditation on turn 34. It'd suck to lose it on the last turn

[pindicator]

There's a save in my inbox.

I'm stuck working on a Saturday for 5 more hours

Trying to not succumb to the temptation of asking Commodore if any religions were founded this last turn ...

[pindicator]

Turn 034

flug built a lot of warriors, and my scout is looking like it's going to be dead soon



But yeah, flug is a little behind. Two workers is good, but 3 warriors and no settler yet? Not good.

The scout got hit by the wolf at end of turn and is now at 0.6 life. Got greedy in my wish to gain sight on flug's capital; I should have stayed away.

Best news is end of turn news:

[pindicator]

Turn 035

flug let us be. Quite kind of him



So this appears to be a peninsula to the southwest. Back home we ended turn and have sight over our entire peninsula:



Also, our 2nd worker finished in the capital. I'm thinking I go straightaway to the next settler

[pindicator]

Turn 036

Farm is done, second worker is out and about. Next turn they both go to the gold mine, since that's the most important tile to improve in all the kingdom.



Demos look like they should: tops in food & GNP